"Draft and Develop" or "All In": What's next for the Jets?

[Whileee]

As this season seems close to an end, I'm going to get a head start on considerations for the Jets' future direction. I think the Jets are at an important stage as an organization and need to make some fundamental decisions about the team and its future direction. Perhaps the most important attribute of good NHL team management is clear-eyed thinking about the team's potential and weaknesses.

With the abrupt and unanticipated departure of Byfuglien and the somewhat disappointing trajectory of Laine, I think the Jets' projected competitive window over the past few seasons was shortened. Laine never became the "power forward" that could both score and drive play with the Jets, and Byfuglien's unexpected retirement left the Jets' D with a gaping hole and limited options for filling it. The Laine trade for Dubois looked like it might add a significant component, with a bona fide 1 a/b C to go with Scheifele, but his play this season has raised more questions than it's answered.

Watching the Jets' performance in the playoffs, it seems evident to me that they have some major flaws in the roster. First and foremost is a terrible D that needs to add a bona fide top-end first-pairing D and another top 4 D. But I've also been underwhelmed by the Jets' forwards, especially once Scheifele went down. They don't seem to have enough play drivers. Much hinges on Dubois' trajectory, I suppose. Regardless, I think the Jets need to also add some depth / talent at forward to become a true contender.

So, where does that leave the Jets? The main question for me is whether they can fill the main roster gaps through trades and free agency, or whether they should go back to a "draft and develop" mode. They have a couple of gems in their prospect pool in Perfetti and Heinola, but are they enough to put this team into top contender status? Or do they need one or two more top talents via the draft?

So, with the off-season and draft approaching this thread is meant to focus on the main strategies going forward, with the two main directions being short term (trades and free agents) vs long term (draft and develop).

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[Teemusalami204]

I still beleive it’s a 4 year plan. Wheeler and Maurice will be the charging force.

our forwards will remain the exact same because so many are locked up. Expect rookies or 4th line talent additions only

We may add a top 4 dman in the next 3 years but mostly we will add rookies to fill gaps.

I’m hoping the rookies immediately help us and make us better

 

[JetsWillFly4Ever]

This team isn't one or 2 defensemen away unfortunately.

We are miles f***ing away with Maurice at the helm.

I'm on team blow it up but I would rather start by getting rid of the entire coaching staff (maybe keep Lowry) and arguably management team as well and go complete reboot. If we are keeping them then we need to change the core and identity of this team because right now our identity is pray Helle saves our ass.

 

[SM]

I don’t think gutting the prospect pool is smart, but one of Heinola/Samberg/Stanley can go in a deal, with at least one needing to blossom into a solid ELC contributor. Perfetti will come in this year/next and will need to do the same.

I’ve been really disappointed with Kyle Connor the last two playoffs, but don’t expect any changes with 55/26/81/27 at this point. Also think PLD needs surgery and hopefully we can see his true potential in the fall.

Only way we get over this hump is finding a top pairing dman to push everybody down one spot. At this point I wonder if we’re too focused on a RHD and would instead benefit from a solid LHD to pair with Pionk on the top pairing and bump Morrissey to second pair with DeMelo.

 

[Daximus]

It's pretty clear that you need puck moving defencemen to excel in this league. Glass and out guys arent going to cut it in your top 4 anymore. They are useful as depth and to fill in on a bottom pair if need be. The Jeta really need to hit on some of their young guys like Heinola, Samberg or Chisholm to be competent top 4 players.

Adding those guys is tough but not impossible. It's tough to attract talent from rebuilding teams if that talent has clauses that prevent those moves. I dont fault Chevy for that. But not moving picks for guys like Toews is unacceptable. We need to be in on every single defencemen that is on the move that can move a puck competently. I also don't fault Chevy for not getting big name FAs. We need to come to terms with being an undesirable market and that is where draft and develop becomes key. We just need to hit on some guys.

 

[jamiebez]

Minimum of three years left on the Scheifele / Ehlers / Hellebuyck / Connor "bargain" contracts. That's the window.

I voted for the "blockbuster trade to improve the D right now" option. I still think our inability to generate offence as well as defend against any kind of cycle can be traced back to the personnel on the blue line. Dates back to Byfuglien retiring, which means we've had 2 full years to fix it.

I expect a lot of D to change hands because of Seattle expansion. No excuse not to be aggressive here. Other than maybe Perfetti, no one should be off the table.

Would also add the "fire the coaching staff" option to this if I could. I've defended Maurice on a lot of the common criticisms (line blended, playing the vets, etc) but it's time for a change, even if it's "change for change's sake"

 

[tbcwpg]

The cap considerations mean that this team is not one you can just blow up. You have to improve the team from both within and from outside to make the run in the next couple of years - I believe that includes the coach as well.

 

[sipowicz]

Other,

fire Maurice

politely ask if we can have Roslo and Laine back for PLD, does Columbus do returns?

 

[DashingDane]

Everyone is fair game imo. Blockbuster trade to create a solid top 4 D

 

[Joe Hallenback]

I think they made there blockbuster with the Dubois/Laine trade

A lot will depend on what happens during the Expansion draft. Seattle has a chance to make or break a lot of teams.

They could potentially make some kind of deal with Seattle for a D man.

What is Copp going to ask for?
Who are they going to protect in the expansion draft?
Who do they feel is ready for full time NHL minutes from their young D?
Who are they going to try and bring back from their UFA crop?

Can this team contend? I think they can but they sure as hell need some help on the blue line.
If they can bring back Perrault and Stastny cheaper that would be great. I think instead of "Vet" 4th line they need to bring in Gus/Vesa. Is Perffetti ready for prime time minutes?

 

[cbcwpg]

 

[surixon]

Good thread.

As for as I'm concerned we have three years left of the Scheifele/Helle on bargain deals window. If we aren't planning on contending then both should be dealt for a kings ransom and the org would need to start a rebuild. Given that the chances of that being the organizations direction are slim we need to build around this window.

A number of things need to happen to get this team back on track and not all of it is personnel.

On the personnel side we really can't afford to trade another scoring winger for another need position. We did that already with the Laine trade so that takes the core piece for core piece trade out of the picture. That leaves the future trade plus maybe a support piece like Copp trade.

I look to get a top 4 RD with size and speed. I know many don't like Ristolianen but his playing style and size profile matches up well with they type of partner that works really well with JoMo. Also you have to consider the Buffalo angle with regards to his performance. I trade Copp and a second or B prospect for him. Expiring contract for expiring contract.

With that we then add our promising young players and let them grow into roles.

JoMo Ristolinan
Samberg Pionk
Heinola DeMelo

That defense has a good collection of size, skill and puck moving. We should be able to run a very effective and robust transition with it.

Up front our problems seem to resolve around not having enough play drivers in the top 6. Right now we have Mark and Nik and when one is out of the lineup it really shows. Wheeler has just aged out as a top line forward that can drive play and Conner just can't get his overall game good enough to the point where he isn't just an elite complimentary scoring winger. We need two more top 6 play divers. I think we have both in house. While Dubois struggled this year he has shown he can drive play while scoring 60 points in Columbus. I don't believe what happened this year is indicative of the player he is and will be going forward. We also have Perfetti who has been an elite play driver at every level he has played at including the AHL this past year.

Configure a top 6 with two drivers per line and a complimentary piece per line:

Conner Scheifele Ehelers
Perfetti Dubois Wheeler

Each line should have more then enough skill to score and our defensive liabilities are spread out.

In the bottom 6 I think we need to modify our philosophy a bit. Our third line is trending towards being a big physical two way line on its own and I think adding Ves to it full time next year once he gets comfortable will give it a lethal shot. We need to ice a quicker fourth line that can get in on pucks quickly and has some offensive capabilities.

Ves Lowry Appelton
Harkins Gus fast FA signing

Even with these player changes we need to change on the coaching front:

Our top forwards have not been helped at all by this coaching staff in terms of systems that are designed based on their strengths. Add in a terrible defensive and breakout scheme and the team looks like a mess most nights. Our top 6 scores off the rush or not at all and that needs to change. We need a robust offensive scheme that can break down other teams defenses in the offensive end of the ice. No more of this conservative garbage where we can't have two forwards deep to cycle properly.

Our coaching staff needs to do their homework this year and derive and implement something that will work for this group. Maurice also needs to get out of his comfort zone and run a much more assertive scheme. This risk adverse conservative stuff doesn't work for this group. It's painfully obvious by now that this team isn't good at low event hockey.

I'm all for a retool year where we live with some rookie growing pains up front and on the back end in order to take a big step forward going forward.

 

[Neuf]

Jets started the year with a roster with excellent deals for Helle, Sheif, Ehlers, and Connor, and a good assortment of depth in Copp, Lowry and vet presence in Stastny and Wheeler.

How the org was ok not giving this team defense is beyond me. It can't be that there was absolutely no deals to be made, can it?

 

[Whileee]

This team isn't one or 2 defensemen away unfortunately.

We are miles f***ing away with Maurice at the helm.

I'm on team blow it up but I would rather start by getting rid of the entire coaching staff (maybe keep Lowry) and arguably management team as well and go complete reboot. If we are keeping them then we need to change the core and identity of this team because right now our identity is pray Helle saves our ass.

I think they need to examine their coaching, but I don't think this roster is a new coach away from being a contender.

 

[nobody imp0rtant]

Chevy has had 10 years and that's enough. I don't see him building a true contender. A new vision is needed. Although if the vision statement is being written by Chipman, we'll probably just get Maurice being bumped up to GM and Vincent stepping behind the bench, so does it really matter? But hey, loyalty. That's what's important.

 

[Daximus]

Other,

fire Maurice

politely ask if we can have Roslo and Laine back for PLD, does Columbus do returns?

You want 2 players back, both of which didn't want to be here? One which even completely refused to even sign to play this year? The other which was offered to the league for months with literally no takers and is probably worth even less now.

 

[JetsWillFly4Ever]

I think they need to examine their coaching, but I don't think this roster is a new coach away from being a contender.

Definitely agree with you.

That being said, Maurice has not shown an ability to optimize this roster since 2017/18. I don't know if it's a a square peg, round hole situation or if he is incompetent, but it is not working and it hasn't been working for a significant amount of time.

We need to change something, I'd love to see a new coach and commit to the youth movement. Give Heinola, Perfetti, Samberg, Stanley, Gus, Vesalainen significant opportunities next season. Make a deal for some defense help, make a core player trade (Connor for a defensemen?).

I don't know the answer for sure, I just know something needs to change and it has for a couple seasons. I feel like I've made this post after the last 2 years. We're doing the 'ol definition of insanity thing here.

 

[Daximus]

Jets started the year with a roster with excellent deals for Helle, Sheif, Ehlers, and Connor, and a good assortment of depth in Copp, Lowry and vet presence in Stastny and Wheeler.

How the org was ok not giving this team defense is beyond me. It can't be that there was absolutely no deals to be made, can it?

I think Chevy probably could have outbid Tampa for Savard. But it likely would have been a hard to swallow move even for the most optimistic of posters here.

 

[Whileee]

Chevy has had 10 years and that's enough. I don't see him building a true contender. A new vision is needed. Although if the vision statement is being written by Chipman, we'll probably just get Maurice being bumped up to GM and Vincent stepping behind the bench, so does it really matter? But hey, loyalty. That's what's important.

This thread is meant to be focused on what various people think the Jets need to do with the roster, based on assessment of the current quality / potential and needs. If it just devolves into "replace Chevy" or "replace all the coaches", that's a different set of questions, and there have been many other threads to focus on those topics.

This is a chance for posters to give their analysis and what decisions they would make if they were in the GM's role. I hope that's the focus. If not, might as well close it down and resurrect "Fire Chevy" and "Fire Maurice" threads.

 

[bustamente]

Just because the Jets need top line d doesn't mean they will get them, players want to play where they want and the real good ones are real expensive and most have ntc lists and guess what we are probably on the 90 % of those lists, no we are a draft and develop team that will be able to make some trades with younger players, the key is to hit on the picks and hope they want to stay here

 

[WaveRaven]

There is no quick fix for the defense. Without a miracle.

Even if both Samberg and Heinola turn out to play well. Your still talking 2 rookies and 2 nd year Stanley on D.

 

[None]

Dubois, Perfetti, and Heinola make it a difficult decision for me. There's a lot of upside there and I have no doubt that Perfetti and Heinola will crack the top 6 and top 4 eventually, but how far away is that eventuality?

Will Heinola get a shot as soon as next season? If so I think that relieves some of the need for a secondary defenseman, but the need for a top pairing minute muncher is still a glaring hole.
That top minute munching defenseman hole will be tough to fill through the draft without eating away at good years of our existing core unless Heinola becomes that guy overnight. Expectations are high for Heinola but I can't see anyone actually expecting that much of him so early in his career. I think he's with the Jets next season regardless of whether there's an organizational pivot again.

Perfetti's a little tougher for me because I think it's abundantly clear that without drastic changes our top 6 comprises mostly of complementary players. I want him to learn how to dominate at whatever level he's playing at and not just tread water and eventually become another complementary player. The problem is that he's already dominant at the major junior level and it's very likely that the OHL returns to play for 21-22.
I think he could be in the NHL for lack of a better place to be sent to, but I'm not expecting it nor am I expecting a top 6 player immediately. I think this scenario would basically mean a proper retool year with both Perfetti and Heinola playing more than 5 minutes a night and hoping they can take on more prominent roles in 22-23.

Maybe overlooked but if we pivot back to fully draft and develop then they need to consider that Scheifele and Hellebuyck are only 3 seasons from UFA. It's a tough sell convincing a guy to wait a little more. I'm assuming draft and develop looks something like after 14-15 where we leaned heavily into players in the system to fill holes (Copp, Armia, Chiarot, and Hellebuyck) warts and all.
It'd be really awkward if we got to the same point as 17-18 with a very good, if not great roster and Scheifele and Hellebuyck were on their last year of their contracts and we end up right back where we were with our defense gutted after Buff and Trouba left.

I think the best option is to push hard for a free agent or a sign and trade either this offseason or next. Use 21-22 as an introspective year if a guy like Hamilton isn't an option and see who's available next year. If a complementary player like Connor can be moved for a sure thing on defense that could also work but I'm a little risk averse and there's not really any situations around the league that I'm aware of that would make sense as a hockey trade. Those circumstances tend to stay behind closed doors though, they might be out there.
The status of Scheifele and Hellebuyck would be looming large with only 2 seasons until UFA after 21-22 though.

I've intentionally left my thoughts on how Dubois potentially fits in because I want to hear whether he's injured or not.

 

[surixon]

Dubois, Perfetti, and Heinola make it a difficult decision for me. There's a lot of upside there and I have no doubt that Perfetti and Heinola will crack the top 6 and top 4 eventually, but how far away is that eventuality?

Will Heinola get a shot as soon as next season? If so I think that relieves some of the need for a secondary defenseman, but the need for a top pairing minute muncher is still a glaring hole.
That top minute munching defenseman hole will be tough to fill through the draft without eating away at good years of our existing core unless Heinola becomes that guy overnight. Expectations are high for Heinola but I can't see anyone actually expecting that much of him so early in his career. I think he's with the Jets next season regardless of whether there's an organizational pivot again.

Perfetti's a little tougher for me because I think it's abundantly clear that without drastic changes our top 6 comprises mostly of complementary players. I want him to learn how to dominate at whatever level he's playing at and not just tread water and eventually become another complementary player. The problem is that he's already dominant at the major junior level and it's very likely that the OHL returns to play for 21-22.
I think he could be in the NHL for lack of a better place to be sent to, but I'm not expecting it nor am I expecting a top 6 player immediately. I think this scenario would basically mean a proper retool year with both Perfetti and Heinola playing more than 5 minutes a night and hoping they can take on more prominent roles in 22-23.

Maybe overlooked but if we pivot back to fully draft and develop then they need to consider that Scheifele and Hellebuyck are only 3 seasons from UFA. It's a tough sell convincing a guy to wait a little more. I'm assuming draft and develop looks something like after 14-15 where we leaned heavily into players in the system to fill holes (Copp, Armia, Chiarot, and Hellebuyck) warts and all.
It'd be really awkward if we got to the same point as 17-18 with a very good, if not great roster and Scheifele and Hellebuyck were on their last year of their contracts and we end up right back where we were with our defense gutted after Buff and Trouba left.

I think the best option is to push hard for a free agent or a sign and trade either this offseason or next. Use 21-22 as an introspective year if a guy like Hamilton isn't an option and see who's available next year. If a complementary player like Connor can be moved for a sure thing on defense that could also work but I'm a little risk averse and there's not really any situations around the league that I'm aware of that would make sense as a hockey trade. Those circumstances tend to stay behind closed doors though, they might be out there.
The status of Scheifele and Hellebuyck would be looming large with only 2 seasons until UFA after 21-22 though.

I've intentionally left my thoughts on how Dubois potentially fits in because I want to hear whether he's injured or not.

With Dubois I think his past performance in Columbus is much more indicative of how he will do for us going forward then what he did for us this year. But I'm pretty sure he's injured, he has no speed or explosiveness.

 

[None]

With Dubois I think his past performance in Columbus is much more indicative of how he will do for us going forward then what he did for us this year. But I'm pretty sure he's injured, he has no speed or explosiveness.

I'm fully expecting that we hear about a lingering issue. There'll be more conspiracies about the locker room if not

 

[cbcwpg]

I don't see us making a blockbuster trade. We already made it to get a #2C.

But assuming you want a blockbuster, Who? You can't trade Ehlers, you just can't, or you shouldn't.. Connor, maybe. Scheifele, gotta keep him. Wheeler, no one would take him. Stastny, won't be here. PLD, after this season? Perreault, I actually want him to stay now. Morrissey? No. DeMelo? No. Pionk? No. Is Little ever going to play again? Doubtful.

I guess we have draft picks we could move, but this goes against the D+D approach.

And how do you trade guys you have coming up that you haven't really seen play in the NHL or not all that much?

Also have a flat cap to deal with. But I also have to see who we lose to Seattle.

I just think management is going to take another season to "see what we have"... rinse and repeat.