Doug Armstrong Question

[WeWentBlues]

In short, we traded a top 6 Center, a position that lacks serious depth, who is currently killing it in the playoffs (6G, 9A for 15 points @ +5) for... a draft pick?

No wonder the Blues can't get anywhere. I get that it's a deep draft, but it's this kind of wash-rinse-repeat tactic that keeps the Blues from taking the next step. By the time the draft pick is serviceable (which could be years), the window is either closed or, if you're lucky, just opening. The Blues need to be more concerned with getting rid of players like Berglund and Sobotka, resign players like Stastny and give the prospects they already have in the system like Kyrou a chance in the NHL, but that's not going to happen when you've got retreads and past their prime players holding up roster real estate.

I'd argue that trading Stastny and resigning him is better than missing the playoffs and signing him.

If the Blues really want Stastny back, I don't think it would be hard to accomplish.

 

[GoldenSeal]

I'd argue that trading Stastny and resigning him is better than missing the playoffs and signing him.

If the Blues really want Stastny back, I don't think it would be hard to accomplish.

If we kept Stastny, there's a good (albeit potentially small) chance we'd have made the playoffs. If he wins the Cup in Winnipeg, which looks doable, he might take a discount and stay there. I look at it this way: What are we getting for Stastny? If the answer is a pick and a prospect and we missed the playoffs with the same core that we've been making the playoffs with, an open window and no injuries, then we're moving in the wrong direction.

 

[WeWentBlues]

If Army botches this offseason, then I will be right there with you @GoldenSeal.

Poile has been the GM of the Predators since their inception. I'm not ready to give up on Armstrong just yet.

 

[BlueDream]

If we kept Stastny, there's a good (albeit potentially small) chance we'd have made the playoffs. If he wins the Cup in Winnipeg, which looks doable, he might take a discount and stay there. I look at it this way: What are we getting for Stastny? If the answer is a pick and a prospect and we missed the playoffs with the same core that we've been making the playoffs with, an open window and no injuries, then we're moving in the wrong direction.

So you're telling me you would have rather made the playoffs and lost in the 1st round (because they would have), than getting Erik Foley and a 1st round pick? Why? At this point, "making the playoffs" is just a mental badge that means nothing. That pick and prospect obviously benefit us more long term than playing 5 playoff games.

Next, Armstrong has already been open about moving the 1st for a player that can help us now. So you don't need to worry about the window closing.

I mean, you do remember that Stastny was on the team when they were already out of a playoff spot, right? He was traded because the team had lost numerous games in a row and looked dead in the water. We watched him for 3 and a half years. He wasn't the savior here that he's been playing like in Winnipeg. I didn't mind the guy but we don't need to sit here and try to pretend that Armstrong traded away this uber important player that crippled the team. It's not that serious, and there was no guarantee he would have been re-signed.

 

[MissouriMook]

In short, we traded a top 6 Center, a position that lacks serious depth, who is currently killing it in the playoffs (6G, 9A for 15 points @ +5) for... a draft pick?

What's the point you're trying to make here? The team traded five weeks of the services of a Top 6 center who was a pending UFA, who was underperforming in his role with this team (certainly relative to the numbers you cited), for a draft pick and a highly rated prospect, when this team was clearly going nowhere this season with the roster as it was constructed and had just gone on a significant slide to fall out of position for a playoff spot.

Geez, that's an awful lot of context to leave out of your argument. It is exactly this kind of intellectual dishonesty that derails genuine discussion in all of its forms.

 

[Dbrownss]

It's almost as if Armstrong was looking to the long term health of the team as opposed to the short term. And before someone cites playoff revenue.....Stillman already said they'll spend to the cap, which to me means, playoff revenue isn't as critical as some fans make it to be. Especially if the plan moving forward has more positives then making the playoffs and being executed on the big stage

 

[Oberyn]

I like Stastny, but he joined arguably the best team in the league in Winnipeg and is currently centering Laine and Ehlers. He's also on the first PP unit with Scheifele, Wheeler, Laine, and Byfuglien. Is he playing well? Definitely, but let's not act like the quality of his linemates haven't impacted his production.

 

[Celtic Note]

I like Stastny, but he joined arguably the best team in the league in Winnipeg and is currently centering Laine and Ehlers. He's also on the first PP unit with Scheifele, Wheeler, Laine, and Byfuglien. Is he playing well? Definitely, but let's not act like the quality of his linemates haven't impacted his production.

Which says something about our roster construction doesn’t it?

 

[Oberyn]

Which says something about our roster construction doesn’t it?

To be honest, I think it speaks more about how well the Jets have built their team. Their drafting in the 1st round has been out of the park and they've made some savvy acquistions via trade (Wheeler, Byfuglien, Myers). The Jets did benefit from having some high picks at the draft, but they had to endure a lot of mediocrity to get where they are now. Whereas the Blues have always been in the upper echelon of the league and haven't had the same quality of picks as the Jets.

I would say the Jets are really showing how important it is to take advantage of ELCs. Laine, Connor, Morrissey, and Ehlers are all on ELCs this year, and all 4 of them have been prime contributors to the team's success. Ehlers' new contract kicks in next year but it's a $6M AAV which is a great deal for the Jets. Morrissey should also get a decent raise as well, but Laine and Connor will still be bargains next season. By the time Laine and Connor get their raises, Enstrom and Myers will be both off the books. And then there's Scheifele who's on a $6.125M AAV for 8 years, that's a steal and a half. Their biggest decision will be Wheeler's next deal when his current one is up after next season, but I'm sure they'll find a way to lock him down at a fair price.

You really just have to applaud the way the Jets built their team and managed their cap. They're going to be a nightmare to deal with for the next decade.

 

[Bluesguru]

To be honest, I think it speaks more about how well the Jets have built their team. Their drafting in the 1st round has been out of the park and they've made some savvy acquistions via trade (Wheeler, Byfuglien, Myers). The Jets did benefit from having some high picks at the draft, but they had to endure a lot of mediocrity to get where they are now. Whereas the Blues have always been in the upper echelon of the league and haven't had the same quality of picks as the Jets.

I would say the Jets are really showing how important it is to take advantage of ELCs. Laine, Connor, Morrissey, and Ehlers are all on ELCs this year, and all 4 of them have been prime contributors to the team's success. Ehlers' new contract kicks in next year but it's a $6M AAV which is a great deal for the Jets. Morrissey should also get a decent raise as well, but Laine and Connor will still be bargains next season. By the time Laine and Connor get their raises, Enstrom and Myers will be both off the books. And then there's Scheifele who's on a $6.125M AAV for 8 years, that's a steal and a half. Their biggest decision will be Wheeler's next deal when his current one is up after next season, but I'm sure they'll find a way to lock him down at a fair price.

You really just have to applaud the way the Jets built their team and managed their cap. They're going to be a nightmare to deal with for the next decade.

Yeah but Laine and Connor put that team over the top. Otherwise Winnipeg would still be a team full of broken promises IMO. Laine just put this team in another stratosphere and Connor reaching his potential is just icing on the cake. Team is loaded right now with both size and skill. With that said, Blues have Tarasenko, Petro, an elite defense and some other fine pieces as well. IMO there's no excuse to not get this team back in contention.

 

[wannabebluesplayer]

I wrote down so many different answers. The long and short of it is, this is arguably the most important off-season for Armstrong in his tenure here with St. Louis. He's got to get this turned around and he's got to start by moving out of his comfort zone of keeping expensive 3rd line players. Sobotka and Berglund, I'm looking at you.

 

[carter333167]

Which says something about our roster construction doesn’t it?

Indeed it does.

 

[Brian39]

Which says something about our roster construction doesn’t it?

I don't think anyone in the hockey community would argue that our current roster construction is better than Winnipeg's. I also don;t think that this fan base could have withstood the decade+ of futility it took for the Jets to build that roster. They missed the playoffs 5 times in 6 years and got swept the one season they snuck in as the 7 seed. That was after missing the playoffs 10 of 11 seasons in Atlanta and getting swept in the one season they made the playoffs. And I think it is 100% fair to consider the Atlanta futility since about half of their main contributors right now can be traced back to assets they got by being bad in Atlanta.

So unless you want to allow Army to miss the playoffs 9 out of 10 years and patiently stockpile assets, it's a gigantic strawman to compare the two current rosters and act like our roster construction is pathetic in comparison. Atlanta got sold and relocated as part of the process to get the Jets where they are today. It's naive to think the Blues wouldn;t be in grave danger of suffering the same fate if we were a complete bottom dweller for a decade.

 

[Dbrownss]

I don't think anyone in the hockey community would argue that our current roster construction is better than Winnipeg's. I also don;t think that this fan base could have withstood the decade+ of futility it took for the Jets to build that roster. They missed the playoffs 5 times in 6 years and got swept the one season they snuck in as the 7 seed. That was after missing the playoffs 10 of 11 seasons in Atlanta and getting swept in the one season they made the playoffs. And I think it is 100% fair to consider the Atlanta futility since about half of their main contributors right now can be traced back to assets they got by being bad in Atlanta.

So unless you want to allow Army to miss the playoffs 9 out of 10 years and patiently stockpile assets, it's a gigantic strawman to compare the two current rosters and act like our roster construction is pathetic in comparison. Atlanta got sold and relocated as part of the process to get the Jets where they are today. It's naive to think the Blues wouldn;t be in grave danger of suffering the same fate if we were a complete bottom dweller for a decade.

 

[Reality Czech]

To be honest, I think it speaks more about how well the Jets have built their team. Their drafting in the 1st round has been out of the park and they've made some savvy acquistions via trade (Wheeler, Byfuglien, Myers). The Jets did benefit from having some high picks at the draft, but they had to endure a lot of mediocrity to get where they are now. Whereas the Blues have always been in the upper echelon of the league and haven't had the same quality of picks as the Jets.

I would say the Jets are really showing how important it is to take advantage of ELCs. Laine, Connor, Morrissey, and Ehlers are all on ELCs this year, and all 4 of them have been prime contributors to the team's success. Ehlers' new contract kicks in next year but it's a $6M AAV which is a great deal for the Jets. Morrissey should also get a decent raise as well, but Laine and Connor will still be bargains next season. By the time Laine and Connor get their raises, Enstrom and Myers will be both off the books. And then there's Scheifele who's on a $6.125M AAV for 8 years, that's a steal and a half. Their biggest decision will be Wheeler's next deal when his current one is up after next season, but I'm sure they'll find a way to lock him down at a fair price.

You really just have to applaud the way the Jets built their team and managed their cap. They're going to be a nightmare to deal with for the next decade.

You pretty much covered it, so not much to add. Few teams have built up the kind of talent the Jets have, but they also have missed the playoffs plenty in recent years. Of course it looks bad this year from the Blues perspective, but we've had a much better team over the last 6 years or so. I know it sucks to miss the playoffs but nearly every other team feels that sting often as well. The Oilers, Flames, probably even Hawks expected to make the playoffs this year but there's only so many spots. If a couple of things go wrong, it's tough to get very far in the West.

Of course the question seems to be are the Blues really trending downward, or was this just an "off year" with a better future ahead? We've got a whole summer to debate that question!

Also, just read Brian39's post, spot on! Sometimes you just have to give a team credit for putting it all together. And let's not forget it took the Jets franchise a long time to get to this point.

 

[Celtic Note]

I don't think anyone in the hockey community would argue that our current roster construction is better than Winnipeg's. I also don;t think that this fan base could have withstood the decade+ of futility it took for the Jets to build that roster. They missed the playoffs 5 times in 6 years and got swept the one season they snuck in as the 7 seed. That was after missing the playoffs 10 of 11 seasons in Atlanta and getting swept in the one season they made the playoffs. And I think it is 100% fair to consider the Atlanta futility since about half of their main contributors right now can be traced back to assets they got by being bad in Atlanta.

So unless you want to allow Army to miss the playoffs 9 out of 10 years and patiently stockpile assets, it's a gigantic strawman to compare the two current rosters and act like our roster construction is pathetic in comparison. Atlanta got sold and relocated as part of the process to get the Jets where they are today. It's naive to think the Blues wouldn;t be in grave danger of suffering the same fate if we were a complete bottom dweller for a decade.

I wouldn’t want Army for another rebuild period.

I would also say that prolonged tanking isn’t the only way to build a team as talented as Winnipeg.

I guess I don’t see why Stastny couldn’t perform well here if we had built the right players around him. Put him on Tampa or Nashville, and I bet he still does well. His last year in Colorado was strong. When paired with Fabbri he did very well. He performs well in the playoffs when paired with talent that compliments his game. I am not sure tanking for many years is a requirement for obtaining that talent.

 

[Reality Czech]

I wouldn’t want Army for another rebuild period.

I guess I don’t see why Stastny couldn’t perform well here if we had built the right players around him. Put him on Tampa or Nashville, and I bet he still does well. His last year in Colorado was strong. When paired with Fabbri he did very well. He performs well in the playoffs when paired with talent that compliments his game. I am not sure tanking for many years is a requirement for obtaining that talent.

Not to jump into your conversation (guess I already have), but I assume most people would agree with the bolded. In my opinion, the Blues problem was having 2nd/3rd liners in 1st/2nd line roles. Stastny comes to mind, but also Backes, Perron, Oshie (when he was here at least). When you put them on deeper, more talented teams then of course they will look better. And all of them had good stretches of success while the Blues were playing well. I think people are just saying that Stastny wasn't going to help this team this year with all of our other issues.

To the issue of rebuilding the team, I agree tanking isn't the only way. But look at Cup winners in recent years, most are anchored by elite, top draft picks. Without a handful of top ten picks, how do mid-market teams like the Blues build a powerhouse like the 3 teams you listed? Tough to lure the top free agents to STL in most cases, and overpaying for mid-level free agents is a dangerous game to play. You can trade proven talent for high picks prospects, but that will hurt the team in the short term. And fans don't seem to eager to part with the kind of talent that might land a real big fish. If Thomas and Kyrou are off limits, then someone like Thompson, Kostin, Dunn, etc. would have to be on the table if you really wanna add a top player.

So what does Army, or any other GM do with this situation? Maybe hope for a gem or two in our current prospect crop, look to trade another for a top 6 guy? It's not that easy to make big trades in today's NHL, and no team wants to get ripped off. Nashville was gifted Forsberg, but can't really expect a miracle like that to happen. Will be an interesting offseason for sure, and lots of pressure on Army to make something happen.

 

[Brian39]

I wouldn’t want Army for another rebuild period.

I would also say that prolonged tanking isn’t the only way to build a team as talented as Winnipeg.

I guess I don’t see why Stastny couldn’t perform well here if we had built the right players around him. Put him on Tampa or Nashville, and I bet he still does well. His last year in Colorado was strong. When paired with Fabbri he did very well. He performs well in the playoffs when paired with talent that compliments his game. I am not sure tanking for many years is a requirement for obtaining that talent.

To clarify, I don't have any interest in a full rebuild or prolonged tank. I totally agree that you can build a winner without it.

As to Stastny, I just don't have much issue with his performance here. He was asked to play a more defensive role here (which I thought he was very good at) and at no point did he have the talent around him that he has right now. He's currently playing between a #9 overall pick and a #2 overall pick. Both those players were 64 point players without him and both guys are better goal scorers than anyone who played on Stastny's LW. But more importantly, he's playing with those guys on a 2nd line, not the top line. Blake Wheeler had 91 points this year, Scheifle had 60 points in 60 games and COnnor had 57 points. That's the Jets primary threat that sees the shutdown matchups. Even if you say Tarasenko/Schwarz are exactly as good as Ehlers/Laine, those pairings were seeing the other teams top matchups when they all lined up together and we didn't have a 2nd line nearly as good as Wheeler/Scheifele/Connor.

I don't think tanking is the only way to acquire that talent. Schenn/Schwartz/Tarasenko is a good top 3 forward group at the moment and we got all them without a prolonged tank. I have a lot of faith in Bill Armstrong. I'm confident that Thomas will be a 2C in a couple years and I think one of Kyrou/Kostin/Thompson will become an above average 2nd liner. We don't need to completely follow the Jets model, but the lesson I take from them is that patience can pay off. Scheifele exploded at 22 and is now 24. Wheeler went from a 45 point player to 65 point player at 25 and then continued getting better in his mid-late 20s. He just had a career year at 31.

 

[Brian39]

To the issue of rebuilding the team, I agree tanking isn't the only way. But look at Cup winners in recent years, most are anchored by elite, top draft picks. Without a handful of top ten picks, how do mid-market teams like the Blues build a powerhouse like the 3 teams you listed? Tough to lure the top free agents to STL in most cases, and overpaying for mid-level free agents is a dangerous game to play. You can trade proven talent for high picks prospects, but that will hurt the team in the short term. And fans don't seem to eager to part with the kind of talent that might land a real big fish. If Thomas and Kyrou are off limits, then someone like Thompson, Kostin, Dunn, etc. would have to be on the table if you really wanna add a top player.

So what does Army, or any other GM do with this situation? Maybe hope for a gem or two in our current prospect crop, look to trade another for a top 6 guy? It's not that easy to make big trades in today's NHL, and no team wants to get ripped off. Nashville was gifted Forsberg, but can't really expect a miracle like that to happen. Will be an interesting offseason for sure, and lots of pressure on Army to make something happen.

This is why Tavares is going to make $12 mil or more even though he likely isn't "worth" that cap number. He is the type of franchise-changing guy who is rarely available without tanking. Army (and about 10 other GMs) need to make their best offer possible and deal with the cap ramifications later. Tavares at $12 mil drastically alters the Blues outlook for at least half a decade. I think one reason Army was content not to extend Stastny is so he can have a seat at that table. Even though it's a long shot, he's determined to make a pitch to the type of guy we just don't have a realistic way of getting in another way.

A less drastic strategy is what we did with Stastny/Shatty at the deadline the last couple years. Army took an honest look at his team and decided that the future was more important than a long shot playoff run. Getting two late 1sts and a couple decent prospects added a lot of assets. It's not the same as a lottery pick, but it gives you a bunch of options. Those trades allowed us to make the Schenn/Lehtera trade, which brought us a damn good player in Schenn without blowing up the prospect pool.

 

[Ranksu]

Scheifele exploded at 22 and is now 24. Wheeler went from a 45 point player to 65 point player at 25 and then continued getting better in his mid-late 20s. He just had a career year at 31.

Eh, I view Wheeler has been this peak level at last 3-4 years. He has carried his linemates earlier, but currently its not that way. Only his produce has get higher, 'cus of Scheifele and this year everything comes complete when Connor is making Wheeler and Scheifele even better.

 

[stl76]

Lost in all this talk about Winnipeg's roster/drafting/etc is just how important the emergence of Hellebuyck has been for that team. Yes their roster is extremely talented and they've done a great job drafting, but they would not be where they are right now without a vezina caliber season from Hellebuyck. It is not possible to overstate how important he is to their current success IMO.

 

[Dbrownss]

Lost in all this talk about Winnipeg's roster/drafting/etc is just how important the emergence of Hellebuyck has been for that team. Yes their roster is extremely talented and they've done a great job drafting, but they would not be where they are right now without a vezina caliber season from Hellebuyck. It is not possible to overstate how important he is to their current success IMO.

It's why you shouldn't constantly keep shuffling the deck for "your guy". If you think you have him, give him the time he needs. It's one reason I wouldn't completely close the books on Allen. He has the natural talent, just needs to sustain it and I believe that's coaching

 

[BlueDream]

It's why you shouldn't constantly keep shuffling the deck for "your guy". If you think you have him, give him the time he needs. It's one reason I wouldn't completely close the books on Allen. He has the natural talent, just needs to sustain it and I believe that's coaching

I don't. He's had tons of different coaches throughout his career and this consistency issue has been following him around forever.

It's completely unfair to pin his meltdowns on a coach. That's all him.

Also the guy is about to be 28. He's not old but I'm not treating him like he's 25 and about to breakout anymore.

 

[Dbrownss]

I don't. He's had tons of different coaches throughout his career and this consistency issue has been following him around forever.

It's completely unfair to pin his meltdowns on a coach. That's all him.

Also the guy is about to be 28. He's not old but I'm not treating him like he's 25 and about to breakout anymore.

I'm more focusing on the last couple years. He looked outstanding under Broduer, then they bring in his old coach, and immediately he's back to over committing. I will agree that Jake is ultimately responsible, but I feel he's closer to a good #1 then whatever the hell meltdown Jake is.

 

[mk80]

Overall the Stastny trade was the right move for where we were. We got a first round pick back that we can use as part of a trade which I firmly believe is Army's plan, or worst case scenario we draft a guy late in the first round and he either becomes something in a few years time or is later used as a trade chip. Erik Foley is also a good prospect to have in the organization. I like Stastny and for the most part I believe we didn't surround him with the right linemates to capitalize on his strengths. His current linemates in Winnipeg are outstanding, and in Colorado he was paired with Duchesne. The Jets are going to have some tough cap decisions to make so regardless of their success this run unless he takes a massive pay cut I firmly believe he is a rental there, if we miss out on Tavares theoretically we could resign him and have taken Winnipeg's pick and Foley for nothing essentially.

The takeaway as people have said is comparing our roster to Winnipeg's is an unfair comparison as the Jets roster was built through completely different means than ours and they had to endure years of building that roster, even going back to the pieces acquired in the last days of the Thrashers era. It's like comparing our team to Vegas, there is little to none in the ways they were built.