Does Tim Thomas get too much credit for 2011?

[Burke the Legend]

He doesn't get enough credit and is really disrespected around here . It was the most dominating goaltending performance since Hasek but people will vote Lunqvist into HOF with 1 Vezina + top 10 (rarely #1) longevity but deny Thomas despite much more hardware and all-time dominant seasons + playoffs.

 

[BigBadBruins7708]

He doesn't get enough credit and is really disrespected around here . It was the most dominating goaltending performance since Hasek but people will vote Lunqvist into HOF with 1 Vezina + top 10 (rarely #1) longevity but deny Thomas despite much more hardware and all-time dominant seasons + playoffs.

He's the Sandy Koufax of goaltenders...just without the fan/media love and respect.

 

[Michael Farkas]

The guy who led the majors in ERA for five straight years and played in the league for 12...? That's the guy that's like Tim Thomas?

The more ridiculous the praise gets, the more I have to balance the scales...you're making too much work for me for a fringe NHL goaltender haha...

 

[quoipourquoi]

Thomas is a hero despite a 3.13 GAA

He faced 33 shots-per-game on one of the most penalized teams in 2007. His backup allowed 4.23 GAA. He had a winning record on a team with 17 skaters with double-digit minuses - in large part to being the best shootout goaltender in the league (8-2 with just 8 GA; the Bruins' skaters, by contrast, were 15th in conversion at 33.3%).

And we're talking about his worst season as a Bruin.

Then he gets credit for winning 12 of 38 games down the stretch in the previous season.

Thomas' 12-13-10 record and the Bruins' 17-24-6 record without him is a swing of 10 points over a full season. And yes, the Bruins did give him credit; they gave him a three-year deal in March:

The Boston Bruins have signed goaltender Tim Thomas to a three-year contract, it was announced today by Bruins General Manager Mike O'Connell.

...

He enters today’s game ranked seventh overall in the NHL with a 2.34 goals against average and tied for first among all league netminders with a .927 save percentage.

No Julien or Chara in sight, and they committed to him.

Florida gives up a ton of goals with him in net, but it's Florida...the state...that just happens to give up a lot of goals. Not the guy in the net.

Considering I gave you their 2012-13 numbers and he joined them in 2013-14, you might find the context useful. He was joining a team that allowed 171 GA in 48 games when no other team allowed 160. At 39 years of age. After a year away from hockey.

There are more variables here than Julien, and even with everything against him, the wheels only really fell off for a few games before the Luongo acquisition and subsequent Dallas trade. He was .917 through 30 games, while backups Markstrom (.874) and Clemmensen (.896) struggled.

39-year-old goaltenders have played worse.

 

[Michael Farkas]

Let me ask it this way...what is your end game here? All goalies are exactly what their save pct. says? Thomas was great and there's no reason to suspect that his two years of greatness wouldn't have been __ years of greatness if dum dums didn't keep him out of the league? He actually has three relevant years of work, not the two that this MFer claims...?

I'm just not sure I get your angle, qpq...

 

[quoipourquoi]

Sorry, this is probably a stupid question, but what is "EvE"?

Edit: Oh hang on. I found this: http://hfboards.mandatory.com/threa...able-goaltenders-error-rate-analysis.1728107/ Is that EvE?

That's it. There used to be tables for every 3/4-round goaltending performance before the forum changed, so that thread is... limited. But yeah, Error Rate versus Expected Save Percentage based on opponent shooting percentage. Designed to compare performances across generations and varying levels of competition. Working to add pre-1967 expansion Finalists as we speak.

 

[quoipourquoi]

Let me ask it this way...what is your end game here? All goalies are exactly what their save pct. says? Thomas was great and there's no reason to suspect that his two years of greatness wouldn't have been __ years of greatness if dum dums didn't keep him out of the league? He actually has three relevant years of work, not the two that this MFer claims...?

I'm just not sure I get your angle, qpq...

To give appropriate credit for the performance without actively seeking out reasons why shots that were stopped might not have been or aggrandizing the negative impact of stops that were not stopped. In essence, using numbers to challenge the narrative.

We can ascribe turning points to bad goals or big saves, but there should be a statistical trail that matches the story. Save percentage is what it is, and it is absolutely not perfect in the way it is often used (cumulatively over large periods of time). But while I can find the numbers to match the story that Tim Thomas did not play well enough in the Conference Finals in 2011 (3/7 quality games is often a death sentence and tells us more than a not-too-shabby .916 or a slightly above average 90.3% EvE), I'm coming up empty on the assertions that he's a bad goaltender overall or that his bad goal in the Finals necessarily had an impact that negated everything positive about the 7-game-series - one that I consider among the very best Finals performances in the last 50 years.

But mostly I'm bored at work, and this is where the goaltenders are hanging out.

 

[Voight]

The guy who led the majors in ERA for five straight years and played in the league for 12...? That's the guy that's like Tim Thomas?

The more ridiculous the praise gets, the more I have to balance the scales...you're making too much work for me for a fringe NHL goaltender haha...

Both players had a 4 or 5 season run where they were among the best players in the league, so its not exactly a ludicrous statement. & haha fringe NHL goalies don't win 2 Vezinas nor do they go on one of the best goalie playoff runs of all time.

I think MF hates the fact that Thomas is better than any goalie the Pens have ever had.

 

[Voight]

Not from that playoff run, but Thomas should have gone to jail for this one

 

[BigBadBruins7708]

this one might be his best...or slightly behind the 2OT save against Montreal in 2011 Rd1

 

[Doctor No]

In general, goaltenders on winning teams get too much share of the credit, and goaltenders on losing teams gets too much share of the blame. When the team in front of me is "on", the game itself is pretty easy.

My conclusion is that Thomas got too much credit for 2011.

 

[Michael Farkas]

Both players had a 4 or 5 season run where they were among the best players in the league, so its not exactly a ludicrous statement. & haha fringe NHL goalies don't win 2 Vezinas nor do they go on one of the best goalie playoff runs of all time.

I think MF hates the fact that Thomas is better than any goalie the Pens have ever had.

Why try to make things personal? Especially from your position...it doesn't make sense.

Anyway, was Thomas even a starter for five years in the league? And if so, he was not considered one of the best for that entire time. That's a ludicrous statement. If this resume is so strong, why does it need to be fudged so incessantly? He had legit Vezina consideration (both resulting in wins) twice...he didn't hold serve before, between or after it...how is that comparable to the five-year peak of Koufax...?

The further over the top you guys go, the weaker the case gets. I don't get the rationale...it's just sloppy.

Edit: I just saw the two non-sequitur highlights...one from an all-star game ...you can't make this stuff up...

 

[Michael Farkas]

To give appropriate credit for the performance without actively seeking out reasons why shots that were stopped might not have been or aggrandizing the negative impact of stops that were not stopped. In essence, using numbers to challenge the narrative.

We can ascribe turning points to bad goals or big saves, but there should be a statistical trail that matches the story. Save percentage is what it is, and it is absolutely not perfect in the way it is often used (cumulatively over large periods of time). But while I can find the numbers to match the story that Tim Thomas did not play well enough in the Conference Finals in 2011 (3/7 quality games is often a death sentence and tells us more than a not-too-shabby .916 or a slightly above average 90.3% EvE), I'm coming up empty on the assertions that he's a bad goaltender overall or that his bad goal in the Finals necessarily had an impact that negated everything positive about the 7-game-series - one that I consider among the very best Finals performances in the last 50 years.

But mostly I'm bored at work, and this is where the goaltenders are hanging out.

Fair.

The narrative is that he's a hero...read this thread. People actually think this is an all-time performance, even though - even by your numbers - it is chock full of holes and inconsistencies. And it's not like I'm asking people to remember back to Roy in 1993 or anything like that...the very next playoffs, the very next one...so 10 months later...a much, much better performance was posted by Jonathan Quick - who was stainless steel throughout the playoffs...Thomas plays on the stats+highlights crowd well, because his hijinks and out of position save selections and "I'm not in control or tracking shooters" lunges are super fun. I get it. He made some crazy saves in the process. But I mean, there's a better answer right next door...it's your anniversary, don't choose the Applebee's you sicko...haha...this isn't high school.

I'm the one trying to undo the narrative that this was anything special. I mean, it was special for its remarkable ups and downs...I'll give it that. It was a roller coaster that the averaging stats don't account for on the surface. I'm showing that this was not a sophisticated performance and, very clearly, it was not sustainable. He's the Jim Carey, Roman Cechmanek, Brian Elliott, hell, even Jose Theodore (minus his ability to stay in the league and re-grow hair) category...not the category with good players/HOFers.

Re: bad goals. Yeah, he was horrid in the conference final vs Tampa and he put his team directly behind the 8-ball by losing games (as diving out of your net into your d-man's legs is prone to do) - he lost the game. No statistical metric is needed. He dove out of the net in a playoff overtime for no obvious reason and immediately lost. The Bruins rallying with their super-human offensive effort is the wizardry...not Thomas' hamhanded attempts to tend goal...

 

[Sanf]

Nice.

Yes, a ninth round pick from the University of Vermont. Took them to the final 4 for the first time. Scouts may have overlooked UV at that time. Consider their top scorer, Martin St Louis, who wasn't drafted at all. Small kid, unorthodox kid. Forget 'em. When given a shot they did OK.

Sometimes even goalie experts like yourself can miss the boat. Hasek was unorthodox and it took some time for him to get a chance. Johnny Bower spent 11 years in the AHL and was 34 when he got his second shot at an NHL job. Hall of Famers each.

I can´t compare him to Bower or Hasek really... I mean he had some good regular season here in Finlnd, but in playoffs his mistakes started to cost quite a much. He had luck of playing behind very very mobile defence corps... But in small marginal game he was sort of exposed. Lot of easy long range shots went in pretty easily.

And he did get chances. Contract with Oilers in 98. Ends up being ouplayed by Mike Minard and Steve Passmore in AHL. Next season with Tampa Bay. Ends up being outplayed clearly by Zac Bierk and Trevor Koenig in IHL. And start in Providence wasn´t that great either.

I would say that he didn´t earn a chance before.

 

[quoipourquoi]

the very next playoffs, the very next one...so 10 months later...a much, much better performance was posted by Jonathan Quick - who was stainless steel throughout the playoffs...

I think the reason Thomas is possibly more remembered isn't necessarily the flash, but instead that his Stanley Cup Final series was, individually, more impressive and against a favored team.

EvE by Round
Thomas (66.5%) | 90.5% | 47.9% | 90.8% | 33.2%
Quick (60.4%) | 50.0% | 71.7% | 70.5% | 55.2%

Quick was both my Hart and Conn Smythe pick in 2011-12, so I have no complaints about Quick. But I think there's maybe less to talk about, if that makes sense. I'd talk about it more, but I met my wife the same day as Game 1, so I was distracted in that series.

I'm the one trying to undo the narrative that this was anything special. I mean, it was special for its remarkable ups and downs...I'll give it that. It was a roller coaster that the averaging stats don't account for on the surface. I'm showing that this was not a sophisticated performance and, very clearly, it was not sustainable.

Obviously, I'll disagree with the sustainability; he won two Vezinas and three division titles with a hip surgery in-between. Not saying it's a perfect reflection of reality, but getting invited to every All-Star Game from 2008-2012 indicates that people thought he was consistently good from the point that he put it all together to the point that he was a 39-year-old goaltender who skipped a lockout season. And I really do think that age - not Julien - is why he wasn't great in 2013-14.

 

[Canadiens1958]

Both players had a 4 or 5 season run where they were among the best players in the league, so its not exactly a ludicrous statement. & haha fringe NHL goalies don't win 2 Vezinas nor do they go on one of the best goalie playoff runs of all time.

I think MF hates the fact that Thomas is better than any goalie the Pens have ever had.

Tim Thomas over 4-5 seasons has similarities with Charlie Hodge:

Charlie Hodge Stats | Hockey-Reference.com

Two old Vezinas, two top five Hart finishes, AST considerations, Two SCs but not the main contributing goalie.

Positionally solid in contrast to Thomas but at times Hodge would give up weak goals.

No one ever viewed Hodge as a potential HHOFer.

 

[Theokritos]

I think MF hates the fact that Thomas is better than any goalie the Pens have ever had.

Statements ad personam like this one aren't really welcome here, which you will certainly understand when you take the time to think about it. The only reason I'm replying instead of deleting is because MF has already replied himself. Just this: If your accusation was true, MF would have to hate pretty much every single goaltender on the HOH top 40 goaltenders list, no? I think it's rather obvious this doesn't make a lot of sense.

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

Tim Thomas over 4-5 seasons has similarities with Charlie Hodge:

Charlie Hodge Stats | Hockey-Reference.com

Two old Vezinas, two top five Hart finishes, AST considerations, Two SCs but not the main contributing goalie.

Positionally solid in contrast to Thomas but at times Hodge would give up weak goals.

No one ever viewed Hodge as a potential HHOFer.

Question presented here is if Tim Thomas gets too much credit for the 2011 Cup. Not if he's a HHOFer. If anyone has brought that up, they are really pushing the envelope.

 

[Canadiens1958]

Question presented here is if Tim Thomas gets too much credit for the 2011 Cup. Not if he's a HHOFer. If anyone has brought that up, they are really pushing the envelope.

See post at the top of page 4.

 

[Bear of Bad News]

See post at the top of page 4.

Posters are allowed to choose their own posts per page (and as a result, your "top of page 4" is not everyone's "top of page 4").

For example, I'm currently on page two of this thread.

 

[sr edler]

In general, goaltenders on winning teams get too much share of the credit, and goaltenders on losing teams gets too much share of the blame. When the team in front of me is "on", the game itself is pretty easy.

Agreed, goalie is a very team dependent position. The goalie plays with the whole team, all players, all lines. Doesn't mean all goalies are equally good though, of course. Or that they can't impact the game on their own, they certainly can.

 

[Theokritos]

Posters are allowed to choose their own posts per page (and as a result, your "top of page 4" is not everyone's "top of page 4").

For example, I'm currently on page two of this thread.

I concede, it took me quite a for a few years on this site before I became aware of this option.

 

[BigBadBruins7708]

Tim Thomas over 4-5 seasons has similarities with Charlie Hodge:

Charlie Hodge Stats | Hockey-Reference.com

Two old Vezinas, two top five Hart finishes, AST considerations, Two SCs but not the main contributing goalie.

Positionally solid in contrast to Thomas but at times Hodge would give up weak goals.

No one ever viewed Hodge as a potential HHOFer.

you're being pretty facetious here. Hodge was a career back-up/split timer who was average at best the few times he was a true starter.

His 2 Vezinas are nothing more than Jennings trophies as they are from that era. And pointing out his Cups as an accomplishment is the same as calling Tuukka Rask a Cup winning goalie.

 

[quoipourquoi]

He's closer to Bernie Parent than he is to Charlie Hodge - right down to the Flyers making it to the 1976 Finals with Wayne Stephenson in net.

 

[Michael Farkas]

"Facetious" doesn't really fit in that sentence. But, yeah, Hodge is being a little too kind to Thomas.

Hodge won the back-half of the Hart voting in 1964 (43 votes to Howe's 40). And was the number one goalie in MVP voting by a considerable margin. Hodge follows up in 1965 by placing 2nd in MVP voting in the first half of the season, finishing 5th overall (first among all Montreal players, which says plenty).

Hodge is fighting off guys like Glenn Hall, Terry Sawchuk, Johnny Bower for votes in net alone...

Thomas is fighting off...what...Lundqvist and Luongo...there is a major dearth in talent in net around that time, so he was uncontested and still didn't really runaway with anything relatively speaking...

Thomas received no first place votes in 2009 and was not the first goalie in Hart trophy voting even (Steve Mason) and Chara, his lifeblood, received a similar amount of MVP votes.

In Thomas' record breaking* (?) season in 2011, there was also not a ton of interest in his MVP candidacy. One first place vote (Jack Edwards?) and again not even the top goalie in MVP voting (Rinne). He wasn't particularly close to Corey Perry or Daniel Sedin...in what is clearly a very, very weak MVP class. One of the weakest I can recall.

In 2009, he won the Vezina handily against studs like rookie Steve Mason and below average starter Niklas Backstrom...the second best Nick Backstrom that has played in the NHL in the last decade...

In 2011, when he had all the save pct. hype and whatever, the GMs were not overly impressed. Despite a 2.00 and a .938, he only received 17 of 30 first place votes. He didn't even appear on four ballots. He edged out Pekka Rinne by a small margin.

The people more predisposed to being wowed by highlights and averaging stats were won over, as you might imagine, as the media heaped praise on him with 92 first place votes for the all-star team...which he coasted to with twice as many points over Rinne.

For comparison, in 2010, Ryan Miller - who had a fine season, but nothing terribly noteworthy in another weak year for goaltending - nabbed 23 of 30 first place votes and appeared on 28 ballots of 30 with his 2.22/.929 season. He got more love from the GMs (rightfully so) because he was dealt a much tougher hand than Thomas, as the talent evaluators knew it. Unlike Thomas in a 30-team league with backups, Hodge was actually able to hang around in the league even during the O6 days. In fact, his best seasons came when the league felt it had enough talent to double the amount of the clubs in one season. So, yeah, Hodge is too kind to Thomas...who would have never made a 21-team league with backups, much less a six-team with few.