HF Habs: Does anyone here think Bergevin truly has a plan to fix this team?

Is there a plan?


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Runner77

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It's definitely a young science going through growing pains. Fortunately, statistics as a discipline is highly developed, so the challenge, as you say, is to enhance the methodology of data collection for accuracy, repeatability and translation.

Experienced and knowledgeable eyes will always be a valuable component in player evaluation, and that's a good thing.

It reminds me of how the old school scouts scorned advanced stat proponents in baseball, the latter being mostly young, geeky guys who had nowhere near the experience of the game when compared to scouts who logged tons of miles watching prospects in various towns, game situations and experiences. The whole juxtaposition became known as the battle of lawn chairs vs. laptops, lol.
 

LaP

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Jun 27, 2012
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It reminds me of how the old school scouts scorned advanced stat proponents in baseball, the latter being mostly young, geeky guys who had nowhere near the experience of the game when compared to scouts who logged tons of miles watching prospects in various towns, game situations and experiences. The whole juxtaposition became known as the battle of lawn chairs vs. laptops, lol.

I think there's a big difference between advanced stats in baseball and in hockey. The ones in baseball are easily understandable. I mean honestly i did engineering math in university. Probability and stats for engineer. Engineering math 1 and 2. Etc ...Some advanced stats in hockey leave me baffled. Like WHAT? WTF is that. WTF is "chances de marquer de haut niveau de l'enclave suite à une relance de l'attaque d'un défenseur" or things like that? How do you define "haut niveau"? How do you define "chances de marquer"? How do you define "une relance de l'attaque"? Is dumping the puck considered one? There's so many gray areas it's puzzling anyone would consider that worthwhile. I mean i almost do not exaggerate here. Some of them really are esoteric. There's way too many subjectivity in some of those.

Things like WHIP or runner left in scoring position with 2 outs or on base % or slugging % are not subjective at all. They are understandable and you can quantify them without any subjectivity.
 
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Runner77

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Das it mang.

I like that expression. Will want to use it for things that go our way.

We'll probably have to come up with a new and creative bit for future decisions from Bergevin that we're sure not to like.

The stuff that comes at you when we're running out of season and our team's been out of it for a long time.
 
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Runner77

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I think there's a big difference between advanced stats in baseball and in hockey. The ones in baseball are easily understandable. I mean honestly i did engineering math in university. Probability and stats for engineer. Engineering math 1 and 2. Etc ...Some advanced stats in hockey leave me baffled. Like WHAT? WTF is that. WTF is "chances de marquer de haut niveau de l'enclave suite à une relance de l'attaque d'un défenseur" or things like that? How do you define "haut niveau"? How do you define "chances de marquer"? How do you define "une relance de l'attaque"? Is dumping the puck considered one? There's so many gray areas it's puzzling anyone would consider that worthwhile. I mean i almost do not exaggerate here. Some of them really are esoteric. There's way too many subjectivity in some of those.

Things like WHIP or runner left in scoring position with 2 outs or on base % or slugging % are not subjective at all. They are understandable and you can quantify them without any subjectivity.

True about baseball but you still have organizational philosophy based on the weighting afforded to particular stats that skews their value. The stats that became trendy in Moneyball were available before Moneyball was a thing -- it took a security guard with tons of time to spare, to tell the difference and influence a generation of baseball insiders.
 

brianp1950

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Sep 28, 2017
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Marc Bergervin has failed as the GM

Here’s why:

Karl Alzner $4.7 mil per yr 5 years total
Jordie Benn
David Schlemko
Ales Hemsky
Mark Streit

All these moves except for the obvious trade Drouin for Sergachev. All the moves above have been failed. It’s very rare to see a GM making moves and all his moves failed. I do not trust this guy at all. He doesn’t like he knows what he’s doing.

Letting Markov walk, letting Radulov go.

Omg
What a terrible GM.
lets not foget briere, Semin, 2 seconds for Shaw and one of them DeBrincat I believe has 29 gols s a rookie, Shaw has brought what to the team?
 

Lshap

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Jun 6, 2011
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I think there's a big difference between advanced stats in baseball and in hockey. The ones in baseball are easily understandable. I mean honestly i did engineering math in university. Probability and stats for engineer. Engineering math 1 and 2. Etc ...Some advanced stats in hockey leave me baffled. Like WHAT? WTF is that. WTF is "chances de marquer de haut niveau de l'enclave suite à une relance de l'attaque d'un défenseur" or things like that? How do you define "haut niveau"? How do you define "chances de marquer"? How do you define "une relance de l'attaque"? Is dumping the puck considered one? There's so many gray areas it's puzzling anyone would consider that worthwhile. I mean i almost do not exaggerate here. Some of them really are esoteric. There's way too many subjectivity in some of those.

Things like WHIP or runner left in scoring position with 2 outs or on base % or slugging % are not subjective at all. They are understandable and you can quantify them without any subjectivity.
I used to love baseball and ate those stats as snack-food. You're right -- even with all its rules, baseball's an easier sport to quantify, mostly because the majority of actions are showdowns between two people. Pitcher v. hitter; hitter v. fielder; fielder & another fielder. In most cases one player is reacting to another player, with nobody else in the way. Hockey's the opposite -- there are multiple players in the way of every pass and shot.

For that reason I think the best way to approach hockey analytics is in aggregates, rather than individual samples. Advanced stats gives a fair illustration of how a team is coached and how it's trending. You want to see high possession stats for a team, even if you can't always tell how effective the individual shots are. You want a lower PDO, even if it means you lack actual shooting talent and your goaltending might suck. Those numbers won't tell you how any single player is doing, but as team stats they'll offer a rough outline of what system is being used. Our numbers were bad through most of Therrien's reign, starting to improve near his end and continuing under Julien, even through part of this awful season. Skaters were doing the right things; they just weren't good enough to execute properly. You saw the shift towards better coordination and less dump & chase; the problem remains a lack of talent.

I don't think we learn as much about any one player. Yeah, lots of Pacioretty's assists came from Markov and Subban, but labeling him a 'product' of those specific defensemen is very misleading. Couldn't we also say their assist-totals are a 'product' of Pacioretty's sharpshooting? If Max never scores 30 again, okay, but I don't think that's the case.
 
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BLONG7

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lets not foget briere, Semin, 2 seconds for Shaw and one of them DeBrincat I believe has 29 gols s a rookie, Shaw has brought what to the team?
Ahh, Shawzie..............karacter, grind, and concussions...and den we give him dat contract...and 6 yrs on top of dat!!

You just can't make this stuff up...........the past six seasons of decisions have been a disaster, and because he is a franco everyone lets him off the hook?? I just don't get it...
 

pepperMonkey

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Aug 2, 2005
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and Price USED TO BE the best goalie in the league.....it means NOTHING TODAY!!

we all need to quit living in the past.....who cares what patches and price did years ago.....what are they doing for us today?.....not a hell of a lot!
Dude/Dudette, do you read what I responded too? Who's living in the past? I just responded to a guy who said Patches is rarely the cause of the win. I was merely correcting his error. There is NOTHING else to read from my response as I'm implying nothing.
 

MtlBoxFan

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Jun 19, 2014
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Players like Eller are replaceable. The problem is, we can’t even seem to find replacements for players of this caliber. Apparently Shaw was suppose to be that player so we overpay on both contract and trade and end up with a useless plug.

I think Bergy wouldn't mind a two way 6'2 210lb center with good possession numbers that is on pace for 40 points...

Good centers are rare. He was young, he was big and he could play. This was a miss imo.
 
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MtlBoxFan

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Jun 19, 2014
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If Bargain Bin signs Tavares not only will I fall over in shock but I will support the Leafs for one season, just don’t see it happening and why the hell would Tavares want to come to the Habs?
I'd be shocked. Tavares and Subban were tight. I don't think Montreal is anywhere on Tavares list anymore. He can get the money anywhere, and pay less taxes.
 

LaP

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I don't think we learn as much about any one player. Yeah, lots of Pacioretty's assists came from Markov and Subban, but labeling him a 'product' of those specific defensemen is very misleading. Couldn't we also say their assist-totals are a 'product' of Pacioretty's sharpshooting? If Max never scores 30 again, okay, but I don't think that's the case.

It's a little bit of both. Patch is not a good cycle guy at all. He's good on the counter-attack. To be effective he needs good puck moving dmen to feed him the puck. Of course good puck moving dmen will also profit from his speed and shot (if it's still there).
 

Price is Wright

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Feb 5, 2010
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I'd be shocked. Tavares and Subban were tight. I don't think Montreal is anywhere on Tavares list anymore. He can get the money anywhere, and pay less taxes.

Tight or not, Subban is going to be positive about the city. But he would also sell him on coming to Nashville. Johansen, Smith, Jarnkrok, Bonino, none of them have NTC/NMC's and would be easy to move to make room for Tavares. And that would be a very easy sell for Tavares.

Forsberg - Tavares - Arvidsson
Fiala - Turris - Tolvanen

Yes please.
 

Bryson

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Jun 25, 2008
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Tight or not, Subban is going to be positive about the city. But he would also sell him on coming to Nashville. Johansen, Smith, Jarnkrok, Bonino, none of them have NTC/NMC's and would be easy to move to make room for Tavares. And that would be a very easy sell for Tavares.

Forsberg - Tavares - Arvidsson
Fiala - Turris - Tolvanen

Yes please.

Just venting but this cuts a little deep. Having not traded Subban or Sergachev we could have had those two anchoring our defense for years to come. With Subban reaching out to his buddy Tavares this too was not out of the realm of possibility:

Pacioretty - Tavares - Gallagher
Byron - Galchenyuk - Radulov

or

Pacioretty - Tavares -Drouin
Byron - Galchenyuk - Radulov

I don't think that it's actually possible to screw up this team more than Bergevin has if someone actually tried!

:cry::cry::cry:
 

nhlfan9191

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Aug 4, 2010
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I like the “like system” they’ve added because it acknowledges people who’ve read your posts and atleast agree on a few aspects of your opinion on the team without having to make an entire response or simply say “I agree” all the time. I hate when people try and make it out to be something more then that.
 
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OldCraig71

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Feb 2, 2009
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It is funny to hear Bergevin talk about his plan to get us out of this mess when it was a blatant lack of planning that got us to this point. How is he going to somehow accomplish between June and September what he has failed to do for 6 years? Someone make me a graph or something to help make it clearer for me.
 

Runner77

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It is funny to hear Bergevin talk about his plan to get us out of this mess when it was a blatant lack of planning that got us to this point. How is he going to somehow accomplish between June and September what he has failed to do for 6 years? Someone make me a graph or something to help make it clearer for me.

Bergevin is the guy who puts his neighbor's house on fire from the back of the structure and eventually rings the front door bell to help save the family.
 

sandviper

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Jan 26, 2016
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954F976B-5F13-4807-BEF9-E9FF3EE2B0AD.gif
 

sandviper

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Jan 26, 2016
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I like the “like system” they’ve added because it acknowledges people who’ve read your posts and atleast agree on a few aspects of your opinion on the team without having to make an entire response or simply say “I agree” all the time. I hate when people try and make it out to be something more then that.

I agree.
 

OldCraig71

Registered User
Feb 2, 2009
35,084
54,731
No one cares
I like the “like system” they’ve added because it acknowledges people who’ve read your posts and atleast agree on a few aspects of your opinion on the team without having to make an entire response or simply say “I agree” all the time. I hate when people try and make it out to be something more then that.

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