Do you want Ovechkin to break Gretzky's goal record?

[Midnight Judges]

So you think Ovi will play at a 43 goal pace for the next 2-3 years? Ok, MJ. We are all delusional about certain things. Seems I know one of yours.

It wouldn't shock me at all. Goal scoring tends to be streaky. I wouldn't be surprised if Ovie had 10 goals in his next 10 games.

 

[Steven Toast]

It wouldn't shock me at all. Goal scoring tends to be streaky. I wouldn't be surprised if Ovie had 10 goals in his next 10 games.

Ok so Judges is overly optimistic about ovi's future. No surprise. Doesn't change the fact that comparing what Gretzky did in his late career to Keith Yandle is downright ridiculous.

 

[wetcoast]

Pens fan so im a hater of all things Capitals/Ovechkin, Gives me great pleasure to see him struggle this season

Man you sound like a Canadian too eh.

 

[MuckOG]

Records are made to be broken

 

[wetcoast]

Yes I'm sure throwing out the large sample in favor of a much smaller sample seems rational.

I can do even better he's got 2 goals and 5 points in his last 4 games.

And with that burst it bring Ovi to this stat line

37-8-17-25 and a team leading -11.

That's with extremely sheltered offensive usage at 71% offensive zone stats and one minute more PP TOI than any other Capital.

The signs are all there that he is aging ever since the Covid hangover burst to start the 21-22 season.

Since January 22nd 2002 this is his statline.

154-76-64-140 (minus 40)

That looks decent until one realizes that includes close to 75% offensive zone starts, 12 ENG's and being 2nd in PP TOI over that period.

He is 38 and what you see is what you get right now and it simply isn't going to get better and the denials will just get even worse.

Frankly I don't care if he breaks the all time goal record or not but I bet half the people saying no in this poll don't really care they just don't want to hear all the extra BS from you on it's significance, which right now the way he is playing would be downright embarrassing if he hangs around like this.

His place in history has been cemented the record won't add anything to it.

He will be seen by many, including me as the best goal scorer of all time but the 2nd best player following the lockout and will be passed by McDavid shortly if he hasn't been already.

 

[wetcoast]

It wouldn't shock me at all. Goal scoring tends to be streaky. I wouldn't be surprised if Ovie had 10 goals in his next 10 games.

Let's revisit this in 10 games time then shall we since we keep hearing every 10 games or so that he will break out and we are halfway through the season now and it hasn't happened.

Actually it turns out that he might not even play today against the Kings.

NHL Buzz: Ovechkin game-time decision for Capitals against Kings | NHL.com

Byram placed on IR by Avalanche; Oettinger nearing return for Stars

www.nhl.com

 

[Stephen]

No, we don't need Ovi on top of the leaderboards.

 

[Stephen]

I get what you’re saying, in terms of how it felt to see Gretzky break that record while still kind of close to his prime, but hitting 800 in the 1980s and early 1990s is a different achievement than hitting 894 in the 2000s. It’s so different that you’d expect the latter to look very different, and cut far deeper into the career of the guy who does it.

If all you’re saying is that Gretzky was a more inspiring player to watch as he broke the record, I agree. It seems that is being conflated with the impressiveness of the achievement itself, in which case I disagree.

Gretzky scored 130 points in 1993-94 and won the Art Ross, the year he hit 802. It spoke to his greatness that he was just in his early mid 30s going about his business, had so much hockey left and not cold tubbing his way into the record books like our latest generation of Marleau's and Ovechkin's.

 

[Midnight Judges]

Gretzky scored 130 points in 1993-94 and won the Art Ross, the year he hit 802. It spoke to his greatness that he was just in his early mid 30s going about his business, had so much hockey left and not cold tubbing his way into the record books like our latest generation of Marleau's and Ovechkin's.

Here in real life Ovechkin passed 802 with a 42 goal / PPG season at age 37.

This was immediately after Ovechkin had one of the best age 36 seasons ever (most goals ever above age 35, and top ten of all-time in points for a player over 35).

 

[tarheelhockey]

Gretzky scored 130 points in 1993-94 and won the Art Ross, the year he hit 802. It spoke to his greatness that he was just in his early mid 30s going about his business, had so much hockey left and not cold tubbing his way into the record books like our latest generation of Marleau's and Ovechkin's.

Again though, that has an awful lot to do with his 20s occurring in the 1980s rather than the 2000s. Just scoring rates alone, absent any other factor, would have had him reach 802 around the same time as Ovechkin if he had played in the same era.

 

[The Grim Reaper]

I've always been a huge Ovechkin fan, so yes, I'd like to see him pass Gretzky.

 

[Stephen]

Again though, that has an awful lot to do with his 20s occurring in the 1980s rather than the 2000s. Just scoring rates alone, absent any other factor, would have had him reach 802 around the same time as Ovechkin if he had played in the same era.

Gretzky was era defining in his day. It's not so much he had the benefit of playin in the 1980s as the 1980s as a decade was shaped in no small part because of Gretzky's impact on the game.

 

[tarheelhockey]

Gretzky was era defining in his day. It's not so much he had the benefit of playin in the 1980s as the 1980s as a decade was shaped in no small part because of Gretzky's impact on the game.

Delete Gretzky from the record entirely, and it still remains an objective fact that games were a lot more high scoring circa 1985 than circa 2010.

It takes a certain amount of blinders to believe Gretzky, or any player of that era, would have scored the same stats if they had played in any other decade. You think John Ogrodnick leads the NHL with 55 goals if he plays in the 2010s? C’mon now.

 

[Stephen]

Delete Gretzky from the record entirely, and it still remains an objective fact that games were a lot more high scoring circa 1985 than circa 2010.

It takes a certain amount of blinders to believe Gretzky, or any player of that era, would have scored the same stats if they had played in any other decade. You think John Ogrodnick leads the NHL with 55 goals if he plays in the 2010s? C’mon now.

I truly have no idea what you're trying to say when invoking John Odgrodnick's 55 goals in a Gretzky and Ovechkin discussion, but I'll oblige and point you towards Jonathan Cheechoo and his 56 goals in the Alex Ovechkin era in 2005-06.

 

[KevinRedkey]

Gretzky scored less goals in his final 5 season combined, than he did in his single best season.
Limping across the finish line isn't really much of an argument here...

I want Ovie to break it but I'd probably want any player to, in the same position.

 

[powerbomb]

I truly have no idea what you're trying to say when invoking John Odgrodnick's 55 goals in a Gretzky and Ovechkin discussion, but I'll oblige and point you towards Jonathan Cheechoo and his 56 goals in the Alex Ovechkin era in 2005-06.

Jonathan Cheechoo would have obliterated the record books if he plays that year in 1985! Adjusts to 116 goals, easily!

 

[wetcoast]

Here in real life Ovechkin passed 802 with a 42 goal / PPG season at age 37.

Sure but we all saw the ENG and offensive zone starts never mind the minus 16 that backed up the eye test.

He scored goals sure but his overall play really slipped which is fine he was 36 after all.

This was immediately after Ovechkin had one of the best age 36 seasons ever (most goals ever above age 35, and top ten of all-time in points for a player over 35).

Ironically Temmu Selanne had an aged 36 season in 06-07 that adjusts slightly better than Ovechkin.

Here is how their age 36 seasons stack up adjusted.

Selanne 50-46-96
Ovi 49-38-87

Ironically Selanne in 06-07 bested a prime Ovi,

Selanne 48-46-94 +26
Ovi 46-46-92 -19

 

[tarheelhockey]

I truly have no idea what you're trying to say when invoking John Odgrodnick's 55 goals in a Gretzky and Ovechkin discussion, but I'll oblige and point you towards Jonathan Cheechoo and his 56 goals in the Alex Ovechkin era in 2005-06.

Cheechoo was a product of peak Joe Thornton, who led the league in points and won the Hart trophy on the way to being the 12th highest scoring player in history.

Ogrodnick was a forgettable player who scored 55 goals on a terrible Detroit team, capping his four 40+ goal seasons and 400+ career goals in a career hardly anyone remembers.

Why does nobody remember him? Because his 55 goals were only good for fifth that year. Whereas 55 goals would have given him the scoring title in nine of seasons Ovechkin’s career (not including 2013, 2020, or 2021) and two more second-place finishes behind Ovechkin himself.

That’s an extreme disparity in the meaning of 55 goals between two generations. It’s impossible to have a productive dialogue about this topic without recognizing that scoring rates change over time, and 50 goals today is qualitatively not the same thing as 50 goals in 1984.

 

[wetcoast]

Cheechoo was a product of peak Joe Thornton, who led the league in points and won the Hart trophy on the way to being the 12th highest scoring player in history.

Ogrodnick was a forgettable player who scored 55 goals on a terrible Detroit team, capping his four 40+ goal seasons and 400+ career goals in a career hardly anyone remembers.

Why does nobody remember him? Because his 55 goals were only good for fifth that year. Whereas 55 goals would have given him the scoring title in nine of seasons Ovechkin’s career (not including 2013, 2020, or 2021) and two more second-place finishes behind Ovechkin himself.

That’s an extreme disparity in the meaning of 55 goals between two generations. It’s impossible to have a productive dialogue about this topic without recognizing that scoring rates change over time, and 50 goals today is qualitatively not the same thing as 50 goals in 1984.

Hey I remember John Ogrodnick playing for the New Westminster Bruins and the year he had 55 goals the Red wings had 3 former Canucks playing for them in Boldirev, Manno and Dave "Tiger" Williams.

Sophomore season for Yzerman as well.

 

[Stephen]

Cheechoo was a product of peak Joe Thornton, who led the league in points and won the Hart trophy on the way to being the 12th highest scoring player in history.

Ogrodnick was a forgettable player who scored 55 goals on a terrible Detroit team, capping his four 40+ goal seasons and 400+ career goals in a career hardly anyone remembers.

Why does nobody remember him? Because his 55 goals were only good for fifth that year. Whereas 55 goals would have given him the scoring title in nine of seasons Ovechkin’s career (not including 2013, 2020, or 2021) and two more second-place finishes behind Ovechkin himself.

That’s an extreme disparity in the meaning of 55 goals between two generations. It’s impossible to have a productive dialogue about this topic without recognizing that scoring rates change over time, and 50 goals today is qualitatively not the same thing as 50 goals in 1984.

John Ogrodnick’s relative obscurity in the history of the game doesn’t mean one thing or another since I’m sure the shroud of ignorance will descend over the era we’re currently in and many people won’t remember your personal favorites. Give it a decade or two.

The other thing is, eras changing doesn’t matter. The benchmark is 894 goals is 894 goals. It’s just a dumb number that’s sitting there waiting to be overtaken. Break the record or don’t. Don’t give me a treatise on era adjustment.

 

[tarheelhockey]

John Ogrodnick’s relative obscurity in the history of the game doesn’t mean one thing or another since I’m sure the shroud of ignorance will descend over the era we’re currently in and many people won’t remember your personal favorites. Give it a decade or two.

I can guarantee you that people will remember Ovechkin, McDavid, Matthews, Stamkos, Rantanen and Draisaitl. That’s the list of guys (minus one) who have scored 55 during Ovechkin’s career. All but Rantanen are surefire Hall of Famers, and it’s not like Rants doesn’t have a shot. Scoring 55 is a mark of being absolute top-shelf elite in the 21st century NHL.

Then there’s Cheechoo, who was an outlier scenario comparable to a Rob Brown or Dennis Maruk. A trivia question that pops up roughly once every 20 years or so.

Now let’s look at the 55+ list for the 1980s: Gretzky, Lemieux, Dionne, Hull, Bossy, Yzerman, Kurri, Nicholls, McDonald, Goulet, Kerr, Maruk, Simmer, Neely, Simpson, Ciccarelli, Ogrodnick, Kehoe, Carson, Bellows.

That’s nearly three times as many players in about half the timeframe. The majority of them are not HOFers, and several were never even in HOF consideration (Craig Simpson, for crying out loud!).

These are not equivalent scoring environments. It’s like how the NBA’s scoring has gone up 25% since the early 90s, or NFL scoring going up by as much as a touchdown per game during that same period. Of course the all time scoring champions are coming from today’s era, not from the early 90s. It’s practically guaranteed in the scoring rate alone, independent of the talent involved. Well, hockey went in the opposite direction.

It’s impossible to have a coherent conversation about this kind of topic without understanding how these pieces fit together. The math factors here aren’t something you can just wave off, they’re era-defining in their own right.

The other thing is, eras changing doesn’t matter. The benchmark is 894 goals is 894 goals. It’s just a dumb number that’s sitting there waiting to be overtaken. Break the record or don’t. Don’t give me a treatise on era adjustment.

A few posts ago you had a problem with players “cold tubbing” their way to a record, now it’s just a number and style points don’t matter. Which is it?

 

[Faceboner]

"He just doesn't have the stats..." -Midnight 2023
View attachment 782934

That big enough for ya?

Counted 69 twice, nice

 

[WingsFan95]

23-25-23 is the goal total for Gretzky aged 35-37 seasons playing 80-82 games.

But of course Wayne was still assisting plenty. Ovechkin's only had 4 seasons of registering more assists than goals. This year looks to be probable in that direction.

And I would still be shocked if Ovechkin didn't hit 20 this year. As has been said there are precedents of older guys greatly improving on their goal scoring. I know an extreme example would be Selanne going from 16 in Colorado at 33 to 40 and 48 after the lockout but Jagr scoring 27 at 43 is another documented case.

 

[WingsFan95]

Ogrodnick was a forgettable player who scored 55 goals on a terrible Detroit team, capping his four 40+ goal seasons and 400+ career goals in a career hardly anyone remembers.

Why does nobody remember him? Because his 55 goals were only good for fifth that year. Whereas 55 goals would have given him the scoring title in nine of seasons Ovechkin’s career (not including 2013, 2020, or 2021) and two more second-place finishes behind Ovechkin himself.

That’s an extreme disparity in the meaning of 55 goals between two generations. It’s impossible to have a productive dialogue about this topic without recognizing that scoring rates change over time, and 50 goals today is qualitatively not the same thing as 50 goals in 1984.

Have to chime in here, I feel really bad for Ogrodnick. I got the chance to meet him and another players from legacy Wings that were sitting alone for autographs a number of years ago. They were both great guys but man I'll never forget Ogrodnick and I should have taken a photo with him instead of just a chat and an autograph. I just wasn't into the photo sessions back then as I thought it corny (also didn't get one with Osgood). But damn, I think it's a disservice to say he was a forgettable player in terms of talent and skill. He was pretty damn good for a period.

 

[tarheelhockey]

Have to chime in here, I feel really bad for Ogrodnick. I got the chance to meet him and another players from legacy Wings that were sitting alone for autographs a number of years ago. They were both great guys but man I'll never forget Ogrodnick and I should have taken a photo with him instead of just a chat and an autograph. I just wasn't into the photo sessions back then as I thought it corny (also didn't get one with Osgood). But damn, I think it's a disservice to say he was a forgettable player in terms of talent and skill. He was pretty damn good for a period.

I didn’t mean to pick on him, he was a good player. Sort of like a… I dunno, Jeff Skinner level talent? Was just looking for someone who clearly wouldn’t have hit 55 in a modern environment. In fairness I probably should have gone with Craig Simpson who had 54 and is forgotten even more than Ogrodnick, who had a respectable 400 goal career.