Do you think there's another gear for Connor Mcdavid? (points wisely)

[Cats2TheCup]

I don’t think there is another gear, but I think there will be an evolution of play style, and I don't know what he'll do but I would think that he would be the best at it.

 

[wetcoast]

123 points
116 points
108 points
105 points
100 points

all above are great numbers but...

considering how insane fast skater he is and his skill level,
anyone still expect him to rise to even higher level?
to find another (proverbial) gear

I have waited tbh, when he starts to hit 130+ 140 point seasons
or even more, that has yet to happen, anyone think it will?

I doubt that he will hit 140 points but 130 is definitely doable but the problem is that in order to do so he has to pile on in some games and in the current NHL most coaches are reluctant to do so.

 

[Melrose Munch]

We need bigger nets for that to happen.

 

[GOilers88]

I don’t think there is another gear, but I think there will be an evolution of play style, and I don't know what he'll do but I would think that he would be the best at it.

This is where I'm at. While I wouldn't be surprised if he surpassed his point totals, I still don't think he's hit his peak. His numbers might dip but I do think he will get better as an all around player. Enough so that all the bullshit about his defense goes away forever, even though he's already been league average for a season or two now. I think he'll find what Crosby found, where he just becomes a two way monster for the rest of his career. That's what I think peak McDavid will be.

 

[Our Lady Peace]

52 goals, 82 assists, 134 points this season

 

[Siludin]

There is only one way to break through...

 

[FrankSidebottom]

Probably he has already peaked so no, of course unless scoring keeps increasing

 

[Uncle Scrooge]

So much talk about hitting 130 points as a benchmark, but I don't think that's finding a new gear for McDavid. He's already capable of doing it (1.62PPG over the last 3 years/200 games). It's just a matter of everything going right for 82, which may or may not happen, but doesn't really change him as a player.

If he scores 110 in 70 games, 122 in 77 games or 130 in 82 games, I don't really care. It's all just variance at the end of the day.

I think the next level for him, if there is one, is pushing for the type of number that no one including Draisaitl even comes close to in a very long time. I don't think it's going to happen, but who knows.

 

[BenchBrawl]

He has a year or two to do it or it's over. Players like him hit their peak at age 21-27.

Gretzky's peak from age 21-26
Orr's peak from age 21-26
Howe's peak from age 22-25
Lemieux' peak from age 22-27

McDavid is 25 years old.

He may score more points if the scoring environment gets more offensive, but in terms of "value-in-a-vacuum" McDavid's peak window is most likely coming to an end after the 2023-2024 season.

 

[The Crypto Guy]

No. He's in his peak prime right now.

 

[Fourier]

I don't see what could be the next level. He already plays about as much as you can play a forward. He's playing in an era that is high scoring. He's playing in an era with bad goaltending. He plays right now in probably the most high-scoring and weakest division. He's not required to play that much defense, although it's true his defensive numbers looked better last season. He's not Wayne Gretzky. He's not going to all of a sudden score 165 points. Not happening.

Total goals against for the division:

Pacific 2000
Central 2088
Atlantic 2139
Met 2016

Goals For:
Pacific 1999
Central 2155
Atlantic 2107
Met 2031

In fact the Pacific was the lowest scoring division in the League. They also had better records vs the Atlantic and Met overall.


The Pacific's cumulative record vs the Atlantic was 66 46 16 = 148 pts
vs the Met was 65 41 20 = 150 pts
The Met vs the Pacific 62 46 20 = 144 pts
The Atl vs the Pacific 62 56 9 = 133 pts

 

[CanadienShark]

It feels like he's on the cusp of breaking out (crazy, I know). The guy is just so talented and some of the stretches he has makes you think he could top 150+ points.

 

[authentic]

He put up a 169 point pace in the playoffs last year.

Obviously harder to do over 82 games, but I think that proved he has another gear. I don't think 140 is out of the question on a career year.

Note: Scoring has gone up which doesn't hurt

Didn't he also average about 27 minutes a game? Won't come close to that for a full regular season. I could definitely see 130-140 though.

 

[Rengorlex]

Didn't he also average about 27 minutes a game?

23:02 in the playoffs.

 

[banks]

Am I the only one who pictures this gif when I read the "points wisely" in the thread title?

 

[Howe Elbows 9]

He has a year or two to do it or it's over. Players like him hit their peak at age 21-27.

Gretzky's peak from age 21-26
Orr's peak from age 21-26
Howe's peak from age 22-25
Lemieux' peak from age 22-27

McDavid is 25 years old.

He may score more points if the scoring environment gets more offensive, but in terms of "value-in-a-vacuum" McDavid's peak window is most likely coming to an end after the 2023-2024 season.

While I mostly agree with you, I'm not sure the top four players of all time are the best players to use as comparison. At least not the forwards.

Gretzky won three Hart trophies and four Art Ross trophies, Orr won two Norris trophies, Howe won four Hart trophies and two Art Ross trophies, and Lemieux won a Hart trophy and two Art Ross trophies outside of what you defined as their peaks.

 

[BenchBrawl]

While I mostly agree with you, I'm not sure the top four players of all time are the best players to use as comparison. At least not the forwards.

Gretzky won three Hart trophies and four Art Ross trophies, Orr won two Norris trophies, Howe won four Hart trophies and two Art Ross trophies, and Lemieux won a Hart trophy and two Art Ross trophies outside of what you defined as their peaks.

They won awards, but they weren't at their best anymore. Call that their "extended prime". OP is asking if there's another gear for McDavid; there's no offensive superstar prodigy in history that found another gear after age 27. At best, some maintained.

Some defensemen found another gear in their early-30s, but never the offensive types.

 

[Howe Elbows 9]

They won awards, but they weren't at their best anymore. Call that their "extended prime". OP is asking if there's another gear for McDavid; there's no offensive superstar prodigy in history that found another gear after age 27. At best, some maintained.

Some defensemen found another gear in their early-30s, but never the offensive types.

You're most likely right that no offensive superstar found another gear after 27, but here are some examples of players with extended primes:
Martin St. Louis - his three highest scoring seasons were all after age 27.
Henrik Sedin - his three highest scoring seasons were all after age 27.
Patrick Kane - two of his three highest scoring seasons were after age 27.
Daniel Sedin - two of his three highest scoring seasons were after age 27.
Bobby Hull - two of his three highest scoring seasons were after age 27.
Mark Messier - his highest scoring season was at age 29 (after Gretzky left Edmonton).

 

[filinski77]

He has a year or two to do it or it's over. Players like him hit their peak at age 21-27.

Gretzky's peak from age 21-26
Orr's peak from age 21-26
Howe's peak from age 22-25
Lemieux' peak from age 22-27

McDavid is 25 years old.

He may score more points if the scoring environment gets more offensive, but in terms of "value-in-a-vacuum" McDavid's peak window is most likely coming to an end after the 2023-2024 season.

Their peak may have lasted that long, but their absolute point total peak did not. Without looking too far into league-wide scoring (which is of course needed context), here's a breakdown of the 'X' aged season that some of the GOATS had their best point total at:

	Age
Gretzky	21​
Orr	22​
Howe	24​
Lemieux	23​
Jagr	23​
Crosby	19​
Ovechkin	22​
Hull Sr.	30​

*** Howe's was technically 40 years old, but league-wide scoring increased 25%, and season length increased.

This is the big-4, as well as the 4 forwards that I think have the best arguments for #5 (which is the kind of company McDavid is trending towards). Understandably a small sample size of players, but for McDavid to hit a his highest point total at 26 or older, he'd be an outlier here (like Hull).

 

[filinski77]

As far as my actual opinion: I think it's unlikely that we see him hit a new high, unless scoring continues to increase, although it of course is still possible (he's the best player in the world).

A quick analysis of his 82-gp scoring rates, adjusted to 2022's league-wide scoring:

	GP	Goals	Points	82 GP Goals	82 GP Points	League wide scoring	Adjusted Goals	Adjusted Points
2015-16	45	16	48	29	87	2.71​	34	101
2016-17	82	30	100	30	100	2.77​	34	113
2017-18	82	41	108	41	108	2.97​	43	114
2018-19	78	41	116	43	122	3.01​	45	127
2019-20	64	34	97	44	124	3.02​	45	129
2020-21	56	33	105	48	154	2.94​	52	164
2021-22	80	44	123	45	126	3.14​	45	126

This quick analysis (while it isn't perfect), shows me that relative to league-wide scoring, McDavid's goal scoring pretty much hasn't improved since 2017/2018, and with the exception of the intra-divisional half season, he's been about the same point-wise since 2018/2019.

Obviously there's context around the length of seasons, teammates, injuries etc. But based on results alone, it seems like McDavid has more or less just been keeping up with league wide scoring.

 

[BenchBrawl]

Their peak may have lasted that long, but their absolute point total peak did not. Without looking too far into league-wide scoring (which is of course needed context), here's a breakdown of the 'X' aged season that some of the GOATS had their best point total at:

	Age
Gretzky	21​
Orr	22​
Howe	24​
Lemieux	23​
Jagr	23​
Crosby	19​
Ovechkin	22​
Hull Sr.	30​

*** Howe's was technically 40 years old, but league-wide scoring increased 25%, and season length increased.

This is the big-4, as well as the 4 forwards that I think have the best arguments for #5 (which is the kind of company McDavid is trending towards). Understandably a small sample size of players, but for McDavid to hit a his highest point total at 26 or older, he'd be an outlier here (like Hull).

You can't take point totals at face value, you need to adjust for scoring environment and for injuries, if what you care about is "highest gear".

Crosby's highest gear was the 2011 season when he missed half the games. He was 23.

Bobby Hull's best season was definitely not his age 30 season. Scoring environment just changed due to league expansion. Based on Hart voting, that 30 years old season from Hull was not even in his Top 8 best seasons.

Anyway, I agree with your conclusion.

 

[BenchBrawl]

You're most likely right that no offensive superstar found another gear after 27, but here are some examples of players with extended primes:
Martin St. Louis - his three highest scoring seasons were all after age 27.
Henrik Sedin - his three highest scoring seasons were all after age 27.
Patrick Kane - two of his three highest scoring seasons were after age 27.
Daniel Sedin - two of his three highest scoring seasons were after age 27.
Bobby Hull - two of his three highest scoring seasons were after age 27.
Mark Messier - his highest scoring season was at age 29 (after Gretzky left Edmonton).

Hull scored more only because the league expansion in 1967 led to increase in scoring. He was 28 years old when the league expanded, so it was a perfect storm. Look at his Hart record instead. His greatest seasons were before age 27.

Messier scored more after Gretzky left because he was finally the 'main guy', but anyway Messier is not an offensive prodigy in the mold of Gretzky, Lemieux, Crosby, McDavid, Orr, etc. He peaked later because his style was physical and those guys, like many defensemen, peak around age 29-32.

I agree though, some guys had extended primes.

 

[BenchBrawl]

People shit on McDavid's 2021 season because of the Canadian division, but strictly age-wise, and comparing him to other offensive savants from the past, it was perfectly reasonable that this would be his highest level of play.

That was peak McDavid, along with last year's playoffs. It won't get any better than that. Maybe he still has a season of that level in the tank, but not much more. That doesn't mean he won't still win Art Rosses though, just that he won't be as Godly while doing it.

 

[devo09]

Hull scored more only because the league expansion in 1967 led to increase in scoring. He was 28 years old when the league expanded, so it was a perfect storm. Look at his Hart record instead. His greatest seasons were before age 27.

Messier scored more after Gretzky left because he was finally the 'main guy', but anyway Messier is not an offensive prodigy in the mold of Gretzky, Lemieux, Crosby, McDavid, Orr, etc. He peaked later because his style was physical and those guys, like many defensemen, peak around age 29-32.

I agree though, some guys had extended primes.

Your examples are from decades ago. Modern training/diet/supplementation has dramatically increased the prime and “peak” years for an athlete

 

[BenchBrawl]

Your examples are from decades ago. Modern training/diet/supplementation has dramatically increased the prime and “peak” years for an athlete

Nonsense, find me a single pure offensive superstar who had his best year (based on Hart voting and general consensus) after age 27.

Peak is peak. Training, diet, supplementation is the most overrated argument on this board. Clearly, Bobby Hull and Gordie Howe growing up had wayyyyy better diet (and training=farm work) than modern players, based on how they looked.