AgentNaslund said:
Guys like Ovechkin does not come by very often, while solid goaltending prospects come by every now and then.
94 Nabokov
95 Kippursoff
95 Biron
97 Luongo
2001 BlackBurn
2002 Lethonon
2003 Fleury.
You can't be serious with this. You can never know for sure what you get. Nabokov was a 9th rounder. You think he'd dropped that far if people knew how good he will be? Biron is no where near Lehtonen or MAF or Luongo or... Blackburn seems to be a lost cause.
You said, that something "special" like Ovechkin doesn't come by that often.
Well how about this:
1994: #1 Jovanovski, Alfredsson on 6th round
1995: #1 Berard (hasn't been special), #11 Iginla
1996: #1 Phillips (pretty good, but not special), Chara on 3rd round
1997: #1 Thornton, #2 Marleau
1998: #1 Lecavalier, Richards on 3rd round
1999: #1 Stefan (highly touted, but hasn't been special), Zetterberg on 7th round
2000: #1 DiPietro (goalie), #2 Heatley and #3 Gaborik
2001: #1 Kovalchuk, Zidlicky on 6th round
2002: #1 Nash, #4 Pitkänen
2003: #1 MAF (goalie), #4 Zherdev
As you can see, almost every year there is a very special guy on top of the list. I also took from the early drafts some late rounders (one per draft) except for 1995, 'cause Iginla is very special. You could take also guys like Handzus or Kapanen from -95. Later once are too hard to tell yet about the late rounders.
As you look backthe drafts, they don't really support your argument, that special guys like Ovechkin don't come around every year. Not true. There are several franchise players drafted from the later rounds too. MG, Alfredsson was a 6th rounder! You'd think he'd been drafted a bit higher, if you know what you get with every player.