Seravalli: Dmitry Orlov looking for an $8 mil AAV

[Extra Texture]

If I were him I’d go for my long term retirement contract instead of chasing AAV

Yup, take the money on the table. 6.75M x 6 years or 6.25M x 7 years is certainly better than him getting a few high AAV years and then returning to the market at age 35.

As someone said, let Klingberg be your warning.

 

[banks]

My first reaction to that thread title was "is there another Orlov in the NHL that I forgot about?"

 

[dugg133]

I think asking for $8m sounds about right from his camp. I think he settles for low $7m on a long term deal.

Yeah this is probably just a leverage play by his agent. Leak to the media that you’re looking for 8mil, then “settle” for like 6.5-7mil with term.

 

[Legion34]

I feel like I'm stuck at prices from like 3-4 years ago. When did Orlov become an $8M defenceman? That's legit #1D money for a guy who played second fiddle to Carlson for basically his whole career.

3-4 years ago werenski and nurse were 9 million d men

 

[bringbacktheskate604]

$7.5M for 6 years is my guess.

Ya that sounds about right. I was hoping our GM signed Severson or Orlov and while these prices look high in three years when the cap is north of 92 million and worse guys are getting equal or more, it won't, imo.

I feel that this summer we will continue to see max contracts but also ones that resemble Gavrikov's. The funny thing tho is it won't be the GM's pushing for shorter deals but the players themselves. In Orlov's case being 32 next year he likely wants 6 or 7 years but a guy like Severson likely could have done a two year deal and then signed a long-term deal with a 90 million cap like what Gavrikov did.

The sticker shock is going to have people reacting negatively but the more years signed during the flat cap, likely end up bring the better option for teams cap structures 3 years from now.

It's one of the reasons I think teams like Vancouver locking up top players like JT now, instead of paying 10+ or whatever it costs for guys top 15 -10 in key positions cost 2 years from now.

I'd gladly pay 7ish for Orlov and have Quinn or him play on the right-side if we could dump Myers and trade Garland but I imagine I'm in the minority in that scenario.

 

[bringbacktheskate604]

I could see it if it is a short contract, like 2-3 years.

I still think it is a bit much for him though, even on that short of a deal. I would say like 7-7.25 on a 2-3 year deal would be the most I would pay.

Normally I'd agree but if he gets 7.5-8 now, what's he going to get once the cap is 92+ and going up each season?

It's going too be interesting to watch how things play out this summer, will we see a bunch of short contracts that take the rising cap in consideration, or will we see deals that are higher than what they would normally be for an 82 million cap to avoid paying more in 2-3 years?

Severson looks a tad high with that term but then again what does he get at 31 when the cap is 92 and growing each year?

 

[WTFMAN99]

He will be 32 in a month...........

Yea, I mean outside of like 7.5-8M on a 2 year deal, it would be lunacy.

Even TJ Brodie whom I think has some decent wheels started to look his age this year, going deep into players 30's is such a bad idea unless they're truly elite.

 

[GRob83]

Ekholm is the defenseman with the closest numbers to Orlov over the past 4 seasons.

Ekholm/Orlov
GP: 270/262
Goals: 29/31
Assists: 90/89
Points: 119/120
+/- Rating: +60/+58
PIM: 118/122

Ekholm makes 6.5 million so maybe Orlov gets 7 on a longer term contract since the UFA market is relatively thin on defense.

 

[HFpapi]

As am I.

 

[HTFN]

I feel like I'm stuck at prices from like 3-4 years ago. When did Orlov become an $8M defenceman? That's legit #1D money for a guy who played second fiddle to Carlson for basically his whole career.

He's been the one. Orlov-Niskanen and Orlov-Jensen were their actual best defensive pair and the main minute guys at even strength. He's graded out pretty consistently in the mid-20's on a lot of analytics rankings of defensemen, and only doesn't get his PP time in Washington because of the shape of their setup and the handedness involved.

Anybody who doesn't consider Orlov a true top pair defenseman has been letting their guard down, it's been obvious to Caps fans for like the last three years.

 

[BB88]

Severson is 28, Orlov is 32. I agree that Orlov is worth more, but if Orlov is looking for that big a payday, it’ll have to be for fewer years.

Also RD’s are premium

 

[RiverbottomChuck]

He’s going to the cats for 7mil book it.

 

[The Nuge]

I mean, he may as well ask for it. But it’s hard to see a team being happy with the contract a bit down the line if it’s not in the 6-7 range. You think he’d be chasing term though considering he’s 32. Signing something like 6x6 literally doubles his career earnings.

 

[x Tame Impala]

Ok so this is one of those moments mentioned in the "Flat Salary Cap" thread. GM Apologists were arguing "Yeah GMs overpay on UFA deals but what're they supposed to do to be competitive?".

In this specific scenario with Orlov, unless it's a < 3 year deal you're not going to keep your team competitive by signing him. He's a top 4 Dman realistically and probably not staying anymore athletic than he is currently. By caving in to a contract for Orlov you'd be hampering your team's ability to effectively improve by having be a negative cap value for probably the duration of the contract.

GM's either 1) Don't have foresight about the realistic outcome of contracts like these or 2) Don't care about the consequences past their short-term tenure with the team. It seems obvious to fans on a message board that signing Orlov to a deal at that AAV would be a poor allocation of cap space. No team is an Orlov away from a Cup and if a team were they probably can't afford him at 8mAAV.

More cap space =/= more space to add better players for GMs, it means the players get paid more. GMs routinely make inefficient use of their cap space and then fans wonder why the salary cap is so difficult to maneuver through for teams.

 

[TheImpatientPanther]

He’s going to the cats for 7mil book it.

No thanks!

 

[jetsforever]

That's comically high for Orlov

 

[sxvnert]

After seeing Severson get 6,250,000, you can bet your *** hes asking for 7-8m.

 

[eojsmada]

Pretty sure Klingberg said the same thing, last year.

 

[Do Make Say Think]

He's a good D and the UFA crop this year is mostly shyte.

I think he gets it.

 

[tornado24]

Not sure in what dream world Orlov thinks he is worth nearly 10% of a teams overall Player Salary budget?? But then what makes him any different than most of the NHL players that seem to not quite understand that a team has to pay 20+ other guys with the $83.5 salary budget.

 

[biturbo19]

I don't know if he'll actually get it or not, but it's not surprising. He's spent pretty much his entire career on "value deals". This is his one big change to finally cash out. It's why i think pretty much everyone at the deadline was effectively treating him as a "pure rental". No contender was going to be able to satisfy that sort of contract demand for him. Also explains why he didn't just sign an extension to be a lifetime Capital.


I do wonder if someone like the Penguins don't move money around to clear space to just go all in and give him what he wants to try to capitalize on those last few years of potential competitive "window"...and then just add it to the heap of contracts to "worry about down the road".

 

[um]

He's been the one. Orlov-Niskanen and Orlov-Jensen were their actual best defensive pair and the main minute guys at even strength. He's graded out pretty consistently in the mid-20's on a lot of analytics rankings of defensemen, and only doesn't get his PP time in Washington because of the shape of their setup and the handedness involved.

Anybody who doesn't consider Orlov a true top pair defenseman has been letting their guard down, it's been obvious to Caps fans for like the last three years.

I agree but Orlov has been declining a bit for a couple of years. The team who signs Orlov won’t be getting that same guy you’re talking about. It’s the obvious risk of signing any 32 year old.

 

[Jared Dunn]

Guys been seriously undervalued his who career. I think he can get close to that.

Bruins fans may be able to refute this but haven’t there been some rumblings within parts of the B’s organization that some would prefer to keep Orlov over Lindholm?

In a vacuum I'd assume no and if this is the legit asking price of Orlove I'd assume HELL no

 

[Mr Positive]

Pretty sure Klingberg said the same thing, last year.

Seems like it could end the same way. He'll get his 8 million but for one year in hopes of getting flipped at 50% to a contender. It might be on a bad team though and so his value sinks

 

[goldnblack]

I think he gets 6.75M. We'll see...