OT: Discusión del Fútbol (EPL, FIFA, LIGA, USMNT, USWNT, MLS, etc) - Parte Uno

[Bananas]

I will say this. I'm happier after this tie than I was after the Ghana win.

This is the type of World Cup match that will have kids playing soccer instead of basketball, baseball or football...

We're still a couple of players short of a full deck here in the states.

 

[kmart]

The other scenario is that Ghana and Portugal play to a draw. They both end up with 2 points, and they are both out. That would be my favorite scenario, we can just relax during the Germany game.

thats not going to happen since they are aware of that. shaky defense on both teams + win or elimination mentality is no recipe for a tie. germany vs. usa on the other hand

 

[Ajax1995]

The other scenario is that Ghana and Portugal play to a draw. They both end up with 2 points, and they are both out. That would be my favorite scenario, we can just relax during the Germany game.

They play those games at the same time for a reason.

 

[stanleycaps18]

And again, America is shown what it feels like to be a Caps fan.

Ha, I was listening to the game while driving back from New England, and that was my first, well and only, thought.

 

[Slappy]

Ha, I was listening to the game while driving back from New England, and that was my first, well and only, thought.

So a tie puts both US and Germany through? C'mon Jurgen make that phone call to Low, we'll happily draw and take 2nd

 

[Raikkonen]

You will see a good friendly match with a minimal Germany win. It's an easy prediction.

 

[QuadrupleDeke]

Real possibility that it comes down to a coin flip with Portugal.

Scenarios for every team: http://imgur.com/a/47Fue#0

Brazil's fate can come down to a coin flip as well. It would be the most rigged flip of all time.

 

[strungout]

Is this nonsense over with yet?

Love the people begging for a draw to get through.

So lame.

 

[BiPolar Caps]

This US team is so disgusting to watch.

Lucky and diving all over the place.

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

Real possibility that it comes down to a coin flip with Portugal.

Scenarios for every team: http://imgur.com/a/47Fue#0

Brazil's fate can come down to a coin flip as well. It would be the most rigged flip of all time.

You think Portugal will make up a 5 goal differential in the final game?

 

[QuadrupleDeke]

You think Portugal will make up a 5 goal differential in the final game?

Do I think Portugal can beat Ghana 2-0? Yes.
Do I think the US can lose to Germany 3-0? Yes.

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

Do I think Portugal can beat Ghana 2-0? Yes.
Do I think the US can lose to Germany 3-0? Yes.

Far more likely that Ghana wins by 1 and US loses by 1. I do not see the US losing to Germany by 3. The US has lost by 3 goals twice in the history of the WC: 5-2 to Chile in 1950 and 3-0 to the Czechs in 2006. Ghana has me worried as they looked strong against Germany and a 1 goal loss by the US to Germany seems very possible if not probable.

 

[QuadrupleDeke]

Far more likely that Ghana wins by 1 and US loses by 1. I do not see the US losing to Germany by 3. The US has lost by 3 goals twice in the history of the WC: 5-2 to Chile in 1950 and 3-0 to the Czechs in 2006. Ghana has me worried as they looked strong against Germany and a 1 goal loss by the US to Germany seems very possible if not probable.

Muntari is out and Pepe is back in. I could definitely see Portugal winning that game, and possibly by 2 or 3, since they'll know they need that kind of result to advance.

3-1 Germany and 3-0 Portugal also results in a US/Portugal coin flip. Definitely possible, and even abides by your "I do not see the US losing to Germany by 3" claim, however misguided it may be.

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

Muntari is out and Pepe is back in. I could definitely see Portugal winning that game, and possibly by 2 or 3, since they'll know they need that kind of result to advance.

3-1 Germany and 3-0 Portugal also results in a US/Portugal coin flip. Definitely possible, and even abides by your "I do not see the US losing to Germany by 3" claim, however misguided it may be.

I don't see a German team all but assured of advancing throwing the kitchen sink at us. Pepe made a real difference against the German attack, so you're right he's probably going to be the difference in a 5 goal swing. Portgual has less than a 5% chance of advancing according to the fancy stats, so your theory is possible, however misguided it may be.

 

[QuadrupleDeke]

I don't see a German team all but assured of advancing throwing the kitchen sink at us. Pepe made a real difference against the German attack, so you're right he's probably going to be the difference in a 5 goal swing. Portgual has less than a 5% chance of advancing according to the fancy stats, so your theory is possible, however misguided it may be.

So you'd say it's a real possibility then? Since that's my original claim that you seemed to take such issue with.

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

So you'd say it's a real possibility then? Since that's my original claim that you seemed to take such issue with.

No I don't, which is why I asked if you thought it was possible. What do you consider a real possibility? I don't consider something calculated to have less than a 5% chance of occurring to be a real possibility. Is it possible? Statistically, yes, but it's also possible I win the Powerball on Wednesday. As I said, I think Ghana winning by 1 and us losing by 1 is far more realistic than two lopsided finishes. Even the Portuguese coach said on Sunday prior to the game vs the US, "either we win or we pack our bags and go home."

 

[QuadrupleDeke]

Wow, that post was a whole lot of crazy. I'll address each bit one at a time.

No I don't, which is why I asked if you thought it was possible. What do you consider a real possibility? I don't consider something calculated to have less than a 5% chance of occurring to be a real possibility.

In a giant matrix of possible outcomes, you don't consider a 5% chance to be a real possibility? What? I bet not a single cell in that spreadsheet has a higher than 5% chance of occurring. Are none of them real possibilities?

Is it possible? Statistically, yes, but it's also possible I win the Powerball on Wednesday.

Here's where you equate something with no worse than 1-in-1000 odds with Powerball's 1-in-175,223,510 odds. Well done.

As I said, I think Ghana winning by 1 and us losing by 1 is far more realistic than two lopsided finishes.

This claim and my claim that there is a real possibility that the US and Portugal have to flip a coin are in no way mutually exclusive.

Even the Portuguese coach said on Sunday prior to the game vs the US, "either we win or we pack our bags and go home."

You seem to not fully understand the implications of this quote from the Portuguese coach. If it's "win or go home", then a 1 goal lead is not even close to safe. A 2 goal lead might not feel even safe, if it happens early enough. A 2-0 or 3-0 scoreline are not out of the question when a team absolutely has to win.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I don't see a German team all but assured of advancing throwing the kitchen sink at us. Pepe made a real difference against the German attack, so you're right he's probably going to be the difference in a 5 goal swing. Portgual has less than a 5% chance of advancing according to the fancy stats, so your theory is possible, however misguided it may be.

Exactly right. There's no need for them to press if they get a lead. As long as the US doesn't crap the bed, a tie should be there for them.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Is this nonsense over with yet?

Love the people begging for a draw to get through.

So lame.

Kinda like begging for an OTL for the one point to get into the playoffs? Hate the system, not the fans.

What's lame is the disgusting diving Chile is doing right now. Get those guys some swim team uniforms.

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

I guess I have to repeat myself. No, I don't think an outcome with less than 5% statistical possibility of occurring is a "real possibility." Again, I think it's statistically possible but very, very, very, very unlikely. Something that happens 500 times in a 10,000 round simulation is a very rare occurrence. You are right, they're not mutually exclusive, nor did I ever say they were. I just chose to look at the most likely scenarios because that's what's most likely to happen. You chose to look at the least likely scenario and said it's a real possibility.

You seem to not understand what the coach was saying. He was saying that he understands making up a 5 goal differential in 1 game is borderline impossible, so he knew that in order for any type of realistic chance to advance they needed to win on Sunday. He's dealing in reality, not in statistical improbability. You do understand this is a must win game for Ghana as well, correct? And that Ghana tied Germany 2-2 while Portugal got blasted? What makes you think Ghana is going to roll over and take a 2 or 3-0 decision?

 

[QuadrupleDeke]

I guess I have to repeat myself. No, I don't think an outcome with less than 5% statistical possibility of occurring is a "real possibility." Again, I think it's statistically possible but very, very, very, very unlikely. Something that happens 500 times in a 10,000 round simulation is a very rare occurrence. You are right, they're not mutually exclusive, nor did I ever say they were. I just chose to look at the most likely scenarios because that's what's most likely to happen. You chose to look at the least likely scenario and said it's a real possibility.

You're ignoring the fact that no specific cell in that spreadsheet has higher than a 5% chance of happening, and even 5% may be high. Again, does that mean none of them are real possibilities?

You seem to not understand what the coach was saying. He was saying that he understands making up a 5 goal differential in 1 game is borderline impossible, so he knew that in order for any type of realistic chance to advance they needed to win on Sunday. He's dealing in reality, not in statistical improbability.

Portugal has to make up a 5 goal difference to advance. There is no other way. So if the Portuguese coach thinks they have a chance to advance, then he knows they need to do their part in making up that difference. Your above quote doesn't make any sense, which leads me to believe that you don't understand this.

You do understand this is a must win game for Ghana as well, correct? And that Ghana tied Germany 2-2 while Portugal got blasted? What makes you think Ghana is going to roll over and take a 2 or 3-0 decision?

I fully understand this. If Portugal goes up 1-0, Ghana will have even more incentive to play an open, attacking game. This plays right into Portugal's strength, which is scoring on the counter. If they do and it becomes 2-0, Ghana will have to press even more. The fact that both teams have to win make it very likely that a 1-0 game could turn into 2-0 or 3-0 very quickly.

 

[BrooklynCapsFan]

Is this nonsense over with yet?

Love the people begging for a draw to get through.

So lame.

If they had spent a minute less on rolling around pretending to be injured, they would have won.

 

[RandyHolt]

If they had spent a minute less on rolling around pretending to be injured, they would have won.

Hilarious

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

Forget it, go USA.

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

If they had spent a minute less on rolling around pretending to be injured, they would have won.

If Zusi would have jogged off the field instead of walked, they would have won. There were 4 minutes of stoppage time allotted until Zusi's sub; when he took his sweet time getting off the field the line judge added another minute.