Did the Malkin/Hagelin Combo Change How This Year Was Going?

[pistolpete11]

I'm not sure we'll be able to afford either Hags or Sheary once Guentzel's and Murray's raises kick in. Complete speculation this far out, but we know there's going to be casualties when that day comes, and the wingers seem an obvious place to look for savings.

I was going to say the same thing until I saw your post. I'd throw Rust into there as well. Hagelin is a luxury. I'd love to keep him around, but not at the expense of some of these other guys. Sheary and Hunwick are about the only guys I think you'd get rid of/let walk before Hagelin to save some money.

 

[Shaffer]

What do their hourly rates look like for scoring chance generation? Might help explain or account for the elevated shooting percentage.

Here's what I found

Malkin/Hagelin 5v5 since January 5th	TOI	SCF/60	HDCF/60	On Ice SH%
Together	321:39	32.27	13.06	11.68
w/ Hornqvist	170:39	34.81	13.71	9.73
w/ Rust	75:21	26.28	11.15	14.00

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

I did include games only since when Malkin and Hagelin started playing with each other consistently, I should probably update the OP.

 

[Shaffer]

5v5 Stats since January 5th	TOI	GF	CF%	FF%	SF%	SCF%	HDCF%	On Ice SH%	GF%
Malkin/Hagelin	321:39	25	55.05	55.44	57.22	55.63	50.36	11.68	64.10

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Pure domination. Would like to allow less HDCA defensively(70 HDCF, 69 HDCA), though.

 

[Honour Over Glory]

Geno just needed two guys that would give him the puck and basically make it a no brainer to shoot more, shoot every body. Since then he's become score.

Crosby on the other hand will have those types of players and think he's Mario or Gretzky and try to make them scorers instead and then make blind passes to the hockey ghosts.

Learn from Geno, Sidney.

 

[rintinw]

That is correct. It's my understanding that HCMS thought that. Evidence of what was suggested to me was pretty strong, given that he tried everyone short of Iceburgh but including Kuhn there this season until finally turning to Hagelin.

Funny thing is, he doesn't have enough 'skill' to play with Malkin the way a Talbot or a Kulemin didn't have enough skill . . . the way they played with Geno before, like Hagelin now, allows Malkin to play to his strengths and to be more aggressive in terms of taking risks, and THAT Malkin gets more out of a Hagelin than a regular Malkin gets out of a more skilled winger.

Other funny thing is, with Horny on the RW, HGH has become our shutdown line, and that's the type of challenge that further fuels Geno out there . . . I think Sully has really figured that one out over these last 10 weeks.

Malkin and Hagelin played most of the time this season with 3 line combinations (469 of 487 minutes together) so I wanted to see how they look like in general and compare them (in green) to some notable lines Malkin had success with (in brown). I also added one line that caught my eye and would like to see if they can work together (in yellow). And I am sorry for a wall of numbers I just wanted it to be a little more comprehensive:

As you can see both Hagelin-Malkin-Hornqvist and Hagelin-Malkin-Rust are pretty dominant although HGH seems to be somewhat unlucky (both this season and last season). Which may be a concern as one of the possible explanations is that they are simply not skilled enough to finish their chances (they have on ice shooting percentace 8.4 when other line combinations are in 10-13 range. On the other hand if they are just unlucky I don't want to be on the other side of the ice when they start to be lucky ...

 

[Shaffer]

Malkin and Hagelin played most of the time this season with 3 line combinations (469 of 487 minutes together) so I wanted to see how they look like in general and compare them (in green) to some notable lines Malkin had success with (in brown). I also added one line that caught my eye and would like to see if they can work together (in yellow). And I am sorry for a wall of numbers I just wanted it to be a little more comprehensive:

As you can see both Hagelin-Malkin-Hornqvist and Hagelin-Malkin-Rust are pretty dominant although HGH seems to be somewhat unlucky (both this season and last season). Which may be a concern as one of the possible explanations is that they are simply not skilled enough to finish their chances (they have on ice shooting percentace 8.4 when other line combinations are in 10-13 range. On the other hand if they are just unlucky I don't want to be on the other side of the ice when they start to be lucky ...

HGH's On Ice SV% has been bad, at exactly .900, but they have a On Ice SH% of 9.09, which is very good. Their GA/60 is skewed because of that On Ice SV%, which their GA/60 is 2.71.

 

[rintinw]

HGH's On Ice SV% has been bad, at exactly .900, but they have a On Ice SH% of 9.09, which is very good. Their GA/60 is skewed because of that On Ice SV%, which their GA/60 is 2.71.

That 8.4 number is an average with their last season where they averaged 7.1 on ice SH%. Also I was comparing that number to Malkin usual on ice SH% (as he is the driver of the line) and in his other dominant seasons he had 11.0 (07/08), 12.3 (08/09), 10.6 (11/12), 10.1 (13/14) and 10.3 (16/17). Even his career on ice SH% is 9.6 (and that is quite skewed down by his injury riddled seasons).

Hagelin-Malkin-Rust is at 13.2 (ok, that's almost sure to go down)
Hagelin-Malkin-Kessel is at 9.6 this season and 10.5 overall over last 3 seasons

As I said it doesn't mean there's a problem. But it's a concern.

 

[Andy99]

These numbers suggest the best combo is Hags-G-Rust, which comports with the eye test too

 

[Vyruz Reaper]

That is correct. It's my understanding that HCMS thought that. Evidence of what was suggested to me was pretty strong, given that he tried everyone short of Iceburgh but including Kuhn there this season until finally turning to Hagelin.

Funny thing is, he doesn't have enough 'skill' to play with Malkin the way a Talbot or a Kulemin didn't have enough skill . . . the way they played with Geno before, like Hagelin now, allows Malkin to play to his strengths and to be more aggressive in terms of taking risks, and THAT Malkin gets more out of a Hagelin than a regular Malkin gets out of a more skilled winger.

Other funny thing is, with Horny on the RW, HGH has become our shutdown line, and that's the type of challenge that further fuels Geno out there . . . I think Sully has really figured that one out over these last 10 weeks.

NOw find one for crosby

 

[Tom Hanks]

These numbers suggest the best combo is Hags-G-Rust, which comports with the eye test too

HGH is the better option. Maybe team balance wise it may need to be HGR but I’d explore everything else before breaking HGH up.

 

[Honour Over Glory]

I was going to say the same thing until I saw your post. I'd throw Rust into there as well. Hagelin is a luxury. I'd love to keep him around, but not at the expense of some of these other guys. Sheary and Hunwick are about the only guys I think you'd get rid of/let walk before Hagelin to save some money.

I think Hagelin knows how good he has it in Pittsburgh. He's gone from the Rangers to the Ducks via trade and thought he could explode there and it didn't work for him. Sometimes an experience like that opens a player's eyes to how much fit is important. If Hagelin wants to come back at around 3m/yr or 2.75m/yr, awesome. Anything more than 3m, no.

 

[pistolpete11]

I think Hagelin knows how good he has it in Pittsburgh. He's gone from the Rangers to the Ducks via trade and thought he could explode there and it didn't work for him. Sometimes an experience like that opens a player's eyes to how much fit is important. If Hagelin wants to come back at around 3m/yr or 2.75m/yr, awesome. Anything more than 3m, no.

But by that time, he will have won at least 2 Cups and be going into his age-31 season with likely one last chance to really cash in. If some team offers him $4M again, I doubt he leaves that much money on the table.

Also, he's found a fit in Pittsburgh at times. The majority of the time though, he was just as lost as he was in Anaheim.

 

[EightyOne]

It's coincidental.

Team still sucks at covering people in defensive areas. Etc.

It might have resulted in a slight uptick in Goals For..and we were losing a TON of games by one goal...It felt like we lost 2-1 or 3-2 for about two and a half weeks straight.

Not as impactful as HBK. But there IS a common denominator...

 

[Peat]

Geno's points production at ES doubling feels like more than a slight uptick.

 

[Honour Over Glory]

But by that time, he will have won at least 2 Cups and be going into his age-31 season with likely one last chance to really cash in. If some team offers him $4M again, I doubt he leaves that much money on the table.

Also, he's found a fit in Pittsburgh at times. The majority of the time though, he was just as lost as he was in Anaheim.

You think teams are going to offer him that?

1. He's been very streaky with his production, his career high is 38pts with the Rangers in his first year.
2. He's struggled with the Ducks mightily, was traded.
3. He rebounded with the Penguins on the HBK line.
4. He's struggled again on his new team, was demoted and pushed up and down the line-up, then struggled a ton in the playoffs.
5. He started this season on a massive struggle, it was only in the new year when Malkin went on fire and Hagelin caught a bit of that fever too that he started to look great again.

You think a team is going to line-up to give HIM a 4m/yr contract? Maybe he cashes in, but only in term, not salary amount.

 

[pistolpete11]

You think teams are going to offer him that?

1. He's been very streaky with his production, his career high is 38pts with the Rangers in his first year.
2. He's struggled with the Ducks mightily, was traded.
3. He rebounded with the Penguins on the HBK line.
4. He's struggled again on his new team, was demoted and pushed up and down the line-up, then struggled a ton in the playoffs.
5. He started this season on a massive struggle, it was only in the new year when Malkin went on fire and Hagelin caught a bit of that fever too that he started to look great again.

You think a team is going to line-up to give HIM a 4m/yr contract? Maybe he cashes in, but only in term, not salary amount.

I didn't think anyone would give him $4M the last time he was up for a new contract, but that didn't stop the Ducks from doing so. With the cap supposedly going up quite a bit and another expansion team on the horizon, it wouldn't shock me to see someone get close to that.

I'm just throwing a number out there, though. My point is the "he likes Pittsburgh" thing only goes so far.

 

[Honour Over Glory]

I didn't think anyone would give him $4M the last time he was up for a new contract, but that didn't stop the Ducks from doing so. With the cap supposedly going up quite a bit and another expansion team on the horizon, it wouldn't shock me to see someone get close to that.

I'm just throwing a number out there, though. My point is the "he likes Pittsburgh" thing only goes so far.

He was coming off of his 2n 30+ point season in a row with a career high of 17 goals, he was worth the risk given that, but since then, he's not going to get 4m. Up until that point if you looked at his career numbers, the Ducks thought they were getting what they had in Rakell, with Hagelin, but that wasn't the case. Hags is hugely inconsistent with his production but with Malkin he fits incredibly well and maybe he goes after his pay day, which I mean, good luck to him.

But he's also BFF's with Horny and loves being on the Pens, the team also has a ton of trust in him and his game and there's a reason he wasn't just dumped with a sweetener to get cap space back earlier on in the season, he was still doing the right things defensively. I would keep him at 3m/yr for 3yrs (Sheary's contract). I think he'd stay and I think we could fit him under the cap with that too, he's not an issue until the summer of 2019.

 

[Peat]

I'm just throwing a number out there, though. My point is the "he likes Pittsburgh" thing only goes so far.

Particularly when there's no guarantee that we won't trade him to a bad situation if it suits us.

 

[pistolpete11]

He was coming off of his 2n 30+ point season in a row with a career high of 17 goals, he was worth the risk given that, but since then, he's not going to get 4m. Up until that point if you looked at his career numbers, the Ducks thought they were getting what they had in Rakell, with Hagelin, but that wasn't the case. Hags is hugely inconsistent with his production but with Malkin he fits incredibly well and maybe he goes after his pay day, which I mean, good luck to him.

But he's also BFF's with Horny and loves being on the Pens, the team also has a ton of trust in him and his game and there's a reason he wasn't just dumped with a sweetener to get cap space back earlier on in the season, he was still doing the right things defensively. I would keep him at 3m/yr for 3yrs (Sheary's contract). I think he'd stay and I think we could fit him under the cap with that too, he's not an issue until the summer of 2019.

He could top 30 points this year and again next year. Then, all of a sudden, 16-17 looks more like an outlier with the injury excuse.

Again, being friends with Horny might mean something, but it's not going to lead him to leaving a shit ton of money on the table. Especially when they could turn around and trade him in a year like Peat said or expose him in the next expansion draft.

To the bolded, that's why other teams would be interested in him, too. He's a career 37 point / 82 game player (almost exclusively at even strength) and incredibly fast and rock solid defensively. I'm not saying I'd give him more than $3M/year, but we've sene much crazier things happen in FA.

 

[KIRK]

He could top 30 points this year and again next year. Then, all of a sudden, 16-17 looks more like an outlier with the injury excuse.

Again, being friends with Horny might mean something, but it's not going to lead him to leaving a **** ton of money on the table. Especially when they could turn around and trade him in a year like Peat said or expose him in the next expansion draft.

To the bolded, that's why other teams would be interested in him, too. He's a career 37 point / 82 game player (almost exclusively at even strength) and incredibly fast and rock solid defensively. I'm not saying I'd give him more than $3M/year, but we've sene much crazier things happen in FA.

IF Hags keeps this up for a bit longer, then I'm open to 3.0-3.5M depending upon the term (preference would be to give him an extra year to keep the cap hit down . . . like we did with Horny's term, where clearly this is about the next 3 years and the thought is let the more distant future take care of itself later).

 

[pistolpete11]

IF Hags keeps this up for a bit longer, then I'm open to 3.0-3.5M depending upon the term (preference would be to give him an extra year to keep the cap hit down . . . like we did with Horny's term, where clearly this is about the next 3 years and the thought is let the more distant future take care of itself later).

IF he signs for that and the Penguins can afford him after signing Murray, Guentzel, Rust, etc., then I'm all for it. My original point that got me into this discussion was that Hags is a luxury to have. I'd love to keep him around, but I wouldn't risk losing some of these other guys to do it.

 

[Tom Hanks]

IF he signs for that and the Penguins can afford him after signing Murray, Guentzel, Rust, etc., then I'm all for it. My original point that got me into this discussion was that Hags is a luxury to have. I'd love to keep him around, but I wouldn't risk losing some of these other guys to do it.

Long way to go until then and lots of variables. What our rookies do, trades we make and who’s a UFA. If you can make it work and his form holds up you do what you can,

Hags is one of the best fore/backchecker and defensive winger in the league. Also
One of the fastest. It’s nice to have players who are the best in the league in their strongest attributes (eg Hornqvist and 10ft around the net).

 

[Pancakes]

It helped.

I think our record since January 1st is also a bit of our luck correcting a bit. Our underlying possession metrics have been good all year. We were getting horribly unlucky with our 5v5 shooting/goaltending % early on in the season. We were never gonna shoot 5% as a team the whole season at 5v5 for example. We were bound to get better just by virtue of luck evening out.

 

[Andy99]

After next year when we will have the same team essentially, I think it’s important that we NOT re-sign any older players....as Sid, Geno. Phil, Letang get older, we need younger players around them. That’s why I’m not big on re-signing Hags unless it’s for a very short term and I don’t see him agreeing to that. He’ll be 31. I’d rather see us developing draft picks, signing college free agents and signing or trading for mid-20s players or prospects...

My two-cents, brought to you by Viagra....

 

[Le Magnifique 66]

It's changed Hags that's for sure. He has been so much more engaged in games
His skating came back and is even showing some nice things in the offensive zone.
I noticed him a lot last night, in a good way!