Prospect Info: Devils Picking 4th Overall, Part II

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FooteBahl

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JimEIV

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Sorry man, but that doesn't make much sense, you're talking like that's his only gift, it's not, the kid can almost do it all when it comes to skills, just not skating.

I wouldn't dismiss that opinion out of hand...There have been tons of very good skaters who couldn't put it together. Mainly because they do nothing else well enough.

Think about it, the first example that comes to mind is John Moore. That guy guy fly...Couldn't defend, was never an above average point producer... He didn't really do anything particularly well...But he was an upper echelon skater for sure.

That said, I personally think skating is the single most important attribute for a defenseman...But you definitely do need some other stuff to go with it.
 

Lou is God

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I wouldn't dismiss that opinion out of hand...There have been tons of very good skaters who couldn't put it together. Mainly because they do nothing else well enough.

Think about it, the first example that comes to mind is John Moore. That guy guy fly...Couldn't defend, was never an above average point producer... He didn't really do anything particularly well...But he was an upper echelon skater for sure.

That said, I personally think skating is the single most important attribute for a defenseman...But you definitely do need some other stuff to go with it.
I wasn't dismissing the opinion that Luke might not pan out, I just respectfully thought the reasoning was flawed. And Moore could fly but like you said he did little else well, but I did like him, he had some serious moxie and I love that in a hockey player.
 

ChicksDigTheTrap

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Does anyone else agree that if the Devils draft Luke Hughes tomorrow, it's very likely Quinn Hughes will be a Devil within the next 5-7 years?
Hopefully if the Devils drafted Luke both him and Jack would be high paid players. Throw in some other big contracts because our young players are playing well and I would hope the Devils could not afford Quinn at that point.
 

StevenToddIves

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I don’t see it in that way, sorry. Skating is his best asset and he does have tremendous skills but if he had everything else + his current skating, he would be a lock for the #1 pick over Powers, which he isn’t.

As good as he is, he’s not even a lock to be the 3rd or 4th best dman in his draft class.

Luke Hughes has a better passing/puckhandling combination than Owen Power or Simon Edvinsson, as well as being the far-and-away best skater of the three. Though Edvinsson's puckhandling is very close to Hughes, his passing/vision his not even in the same stratosphere. Though Power passes very well and far better than Edvinsson as well, his puckhandling is not comparable to either of the other two.

So, why is Luke Hughes generally ranked behind Power and equivalent to Edvinsson? I would say that comes down quite clearly to their defense and play without the puck. He's not even close to the other two defensively. Though Power would benefit from another year of amateur hockey, he could play passable defense as a third-pairing guy in the NHL right now. Meanwhile, Edvinsson plays physical, high-compete defense, and although he has his warts, this quality combined with his speed and immense wing-span make him a constant force in the defensive zone. Luke Hughes is admittedly very problematic in the defensive zone -- as well as prone to turnovers which lead to high-danger chances against.

The hope is that Luke will learn to pick his spots better to limit his turnovers -- he is a smart player with high-end vision, which leads to hope in this respect. The fact that he is almost a full year younger than Power and Edvinsson lends hope to the fact that he has a higher learning curve defensively. But I would caution that the idea an offensive defenseman can be taught defense has largely proven to be myth. In fact, there are more NHL defensemen who did not produce at the amateur level who learned to be productive offensively than the other way around.

However, no one is asking Luke Hughes to be Jake Slavin. The hope is that Luke becomes an above-average defender to go along with being a 50+ or even 60+ point force from the back-end. I do think it is very realistic for Luke to grow into a passable defender who mostly takes care of business in his own zone with a few quirks -- he's not a complete horror show back there a la Poirier or Grans in the 2020 draft.
 

Poppy Whoa Sonnet

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You guys cannot be serious about this?

I mean I don't know how negotiations are gonna go, but a 3 year deal is bad news for Vancouver. Similar to how Werenski signed a 3 year deal, or Tkachuk who is now being thrown in multiple rumors.

Again hockey has a different culture but if you look at the NBA players do whatever they can to go to the team they want, and it's not unthinkable Quinn might decide he wants to be in NJ.

Edit: You don't even have to look at the NBA, look across the river at Panarin, Fox, and Trouba who all basically forced their way to NY.
 
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ChicksDigTheTrap

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I mean I don't know how negotiations are gonna go, but a 3 year deal is bad news for Vancouver. Similar to how Werenski signed a 3 year deal, or Tkachuk who is now being thrown in multiple rumors.
But how would that relate to him becoming a Devil? If the Devils can afford a player that will take up Quinns percentage of cap in 5-7 years it is more likely Jack and Luke would want to be leaving as opposed to Quinn coming since that would mean the Devils would still be bad.
 

Poppy Whoa Sonnet

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But how would that relate to him becoming a Devil? If the Devils can afford a player that will take up Quinns percentage of cap in 5-7 years it is more likely Jack and Luke would want to be leaving as opposed to Quinn coming since that would mean the Devils would still be bad.

That's a manageable problem if all parties are serious about it happening. Something like Quinn in 3 years says he'll only sign an extension in NJ or he goes to arbitration. Vancouver decides to trade him (like Trouba) to NJ. NJ figures out how to fit him in.

If you were to ask me is this happening I'd say no, but it's quite feasible.
 
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StevenToddIves

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I wouldn't dismiss that opinion out of hand...There have been tons of very good skaters who couldn't put it together. Mainly because they do nothing else well enough.

Think about it, the first example that comes to mind is John Moore. That guy guy fly...Couldn't defend, was never an above average point producer... He didn't really do anything particularly well...But he was an upper echelon skater for sure.

That said, I personally think skating is the single most important attribute for a defenseman...But you definitely do need some other stuff to go with it.

I've said this a bunch but I don't consider skating as important for a defenseman as hockey IQ or passing/vision -- those two qualities are shared by every Norris finalist, every year. Not all of them can skate exceptionally. I would say defensive play is my #3 category, then compete level. I would rank skating as #5 among the importance of tools for a defenseman.

This is why I have a player like Shai Buium ranked in my first round this year -- he is not a great skater, but he's exceptional in terms of passing and IQ. Brock Faber was the same way in 2020.

In 2020 I ranked William Wallinder about 70 slots lower than his average ranking because I felt he was well below average in these two traits -- in fact, I ranked his hockey IQ the lowest among all players drafted in the first 100 picks. All the 6'4-and-super-fast in the world can't cover for a player who does not anticipate or process the game nearly as quickly as his opponents.
 

Guadana

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I feel Clarke has been undersold by much of the scouting community, which on the whole puts too much stock in the superficial qualities of "what a player looks like". Clarke is not a strapping kid, and his skating looks weird. It's that simple. I think he falls out of the top 5 -- where he deserves to be picked -- and teams regret it for years. Meanwhile, a far inferior player like Simon Edvinsson -- not even in Clarke's league when they played in the same tournament -- will be picked ahead of Clarke because he looks more "manly", he's bigger and faster. But these two players are not even close -- Clarke is smarter and light years ahead of Edvinsson in terms of passing, shooting, puckhandling, awareness, etc. etc.

Don`t listen to him, guys. He is biased.
Edvinsson scored 4 points in 7 games in the dismantled Swedish national team, Clarke scored 7 points in 7 games in a real dream team Canada squad. Even in the game where Sweden lost 1-8(I did a full analysis of this match earlier), Edvinsson fought hard and won the whole fight for the puck, including against Clarke. He is literally a head taller than his peers - physically and mentally as defenseman. Guenther was brilliant on U-18, but cant do anything against Simon. Edvinsson will never be as great playmaker as Clarke, but he will be a great Defendseman, he has much better skating, gap control, and he is at least as good at puckhandling and better in puckprotecting.
The guys on YouTube and bloggers really like guys like Hughes and Clarke, but the NHL likes guys like Edvinsson. Not only general managers, but also such an immaterial thing as hockey. Hockey is a unique interesting game in which unique combinations of certain skills give victory. You can be the smartest and handiest player in the world, but if you don't skate well and weak in the fight, it will be difficult for you to become successful. Don't you believe it? Ask Gusev. I don't compare Gusev with anyone. I'm just saying that sometimes certain excellent skills are not enough.
 

Merrills Marauders

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For anyone interested in wagering on the draft, FanDuel NJ has posted prices. Listed in most to least likely based on implied probability:

1st overall:
Power -1100
Beniers +500
Eklund +1900
Everyone else +6000 or above.

4th overall:
Hughes -125
Eklund +195
McTavish +300 (interesting)
Guenther +490
Clarke +750
Edvinsson +1100

Thinking of putting a couple bucks on Eklund for 1OA in the event there was some truth to the rumors of them not leaving the draft without him. Apart from that, I find it interesting oddsmakers see Clarke and Edvinsson as relative longshots at 4OA. Hughes fans will be happy here with this.

Again, it is important to understand these prices are often designed to encourage action and not always indicative of what an oddsmaker believes the true odds to be. For that reason this is just fun for discussion.
 

RememberTheName

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StevenToddIves

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Don`t listen to him, guys. He is biased.
Edvinsson scored 4 points in 7 games in the dismantled Swedish national team, Clarke scored 7 points in 7 games in a real dream team Canada squad. Even in the game where Sweden lost 1-8(I did a full analysis of this match earlier), Edvinsson fought hard and won the whole fight for the puck, including against Clarke. He is literally a head taller than his peers - physically and mentally as defenseman. Guenther was brilliant on U-18, but cant do anything against Simon. Edvinsson will never be as great playmaker as Clarke, but he will be a great Defendseman, he has much better skating, gap control, and he is at least as good at puckhandling and better in puckprotecting.
The guys on YouTube and bloggers really like guys like Hughes and Clarke, but the NHL likes guys like Edvinsson. Not only general managers, but also such an immaterial thing as hockey. Hockey is a unique interesting game in which unique combinations of certain skills give victory. You can be the smartest and handiest player in the world, but if you don't skate well and weak in the fight, it will be difficult for you to become successful. Don't you believe it? Ask Gusev. I don't compare Gusev with anyone. I'm just saying that sometimes certain excellent skills are not enough.

There is no one I enjoy being disagreed with as much as my compatriot, @Guadana -- not only is hockey a uniquely interesting game where unique combinations result in success, we can also say the same about our Devils HFBoards prospect threads.
 

TrufleShufle

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StevenToddIves

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For anyone interested in wagering on the draft, FanDuel NJ has posted prices. Listed in most to least likely based on implied probability:

1st overall:
Power -1100
Beniers +500
Eklund +1900
Everyone else +6000 or above.

4th overall:
Hughes -125
Eklund +195
McTavish +300 (interesting)
Guenther +490
Clarke +750
Edvinsson +1100

Thinking of putting a couple bucks on Eklund for 1OA in the event there was some truth to the rumors of them not leaving the draft without him. Apart from that, I find it interesting oddsmakers see Clarke and Edvinsson as relative longshots at 4OA. Hughes fans will be happy here with this.

Again, it is important to understand these prices are often designed to encourage action and not always indicative of what an oddsmaker believes the true odds to be. For that reason this is just fun for discussion.

That McTavish betting line sure catches my eye. I actually feel that, if Anaheim takes Hughes at #3, McTavish would be my favorite (odds-wise) for the Devils pick.
 
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R8Devs

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For anyone interested in wagering on the draft, FanDuel NJ has posted prices. Listed in most to least likely based on implied probability:

1st overall:
Power -1100
Beniers +500
Eklund +1900
Everyone else +6000 or above.

4th overall:
Hughes -125
Eklund +195
McTavish +300 (interesting)
Guenther +490
Clarke +750
Edvinsson +1100

Thinking of putting a couple bucks on Eklund for 1OA in the event there was some truth to the rumors of them not leaving the draft without him. Apart from that, I find it interesting oddsmakers see Clarke and Edvinsson as relative longshots at 4OA. Hughes fans will be happy here with this.

Again, it is important to understand these prices are often designed to encourage action and not always indicative of what an oddsmaker believes the true odds to be. For that reason this is just fun for discussion.

Hughes and Eklund being the favorites is nice, if the Devils get either I'd be pretty happy.
 
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