Speculation: Devils at the Trade Deadline

[Blackjack]

Honestly, I think you do it just as a favor for Subban. Moves like that also make you look good to agents and players.

You have Jaros who can finish out the season for you. Then there’s also some defenders in the AHL that you can give a few games here or there which has value in itself.

I don't think Subban wants to be traded. The Athletic article from Lebrun said that it was a difficult conversation for Fitz.

 

[StevenToddIves]

People are naturally subjective, but let's have a look at GM Tom Fitzgerald's deadline trade history:

2/20: got a 2nd round pick for Andy Greene, which was a win for both teams.

2/20: turned Blake Coleman into Nolan Foote and Shakir Mukhamadullin, which was a huge win for both teams.

2/20: got a 5th for Wayne Simmonds, which was a won trade, but the Devils made a questionable pick of Topias Vilen with the 5th rounder. We'll call this one a meh-meh deal, since nothing of value was gotten by anyone.

2/20: turned the shell of what was once Sami Vatanen into a functional bottom-6 winger in Janne Kuokkanen and a 3rd round pick which turned into Nico Daws, who looks like he could be something really nice between the pipes. Huge win for the Devils here.

4/21: trades Palmieri and a soon-to-retire Zajac for a pair of AHL-ers and a 1st round pick. Palmieri and Zajac are integral in an Islanders playoff run which drops the pick from #20 to #29 overall in a thin 2021 draft. Devils lose out on some big talent in the 20-29 range but still get a the best pick of the final 5 2021 first-rounders in Chase Stillman. Win for both teams.

4/21: acquires Jonas Siegenthaler from Washington for a 3rd round pick. Siegenthaler now looks like one of the better shut-down defenders in the NHL. Just a tremendous win for the Devils.

4/21: trades Kulikov to Edmonton for a 4th round pick in 2022. I was hoping Devils would get more, but Kulikov was a UFA. We'll see how it goes with the pick. Another meh-meh deal.


I think we can say Fitzgerald has yet to lose a deadline deal, and he's won several. We can say with confidence he is very good at trading.

As such, I feel confident the Devils will get a passable return for Subban -- I would not be shocked by a 3rd round pick with some creative salary maneuvering. I feel Tatar is also a strong candidate to be dealt -- he was a bit of a desperation signing, but his contract is short and manageable and a team seeking scoring depth might be willing to give up a 3rd/4th rounder for him. A team seeking bottom 6 depth might give up a 5th or 6th round pick for Vesey, which is fine.

The big names here are Severson and Zacha. I do not feel the Devils trade Severson unless they are overwhelmed by a big trade offer. If Toronto offers a first round pick? Then the answer is no. But if Toronto offers a first-round pick, a third-round pick and top LW prospect Matthew Knies? Then yes, I think the Devils would be wise to pull the trigger.

It's tough to bring up Zacha on these threads because he has become so triggering for the analytic set that people lose track of his true value. He's a player who paced for 28 goals last year and is pacing for over 20 this year, he's 6'3 and fast with a huge shot, he's young and making a fraction of what most NHL goal-scorers earn with just north of $2 million per year. His trade value is quite significant. All the rumors have focused on Vancouver, but several teams are looking for secondary scoring, and Zacha represents perhaps the best bargain on the market, and the only player on the market whose "change-of-scenery" upside might eventually even outshine his value right now. I feel Fitzgerald will get a first round pick or comparable prospect for Zacha, or at the very least a 2nd rounder and a good prospect.

 

[My3Sons]

With 9 F's under contract, 5 pending RFA's plus guys from Utica. Why do the Devils want to make it work with Rico for 2 years?

I’m not saying they do. Just that they could if the deal warranted them taking him back.

 

[OmNomNom]

I am not in the group that thinks the Devils need a UFA F. They have 9 Fs under contract and 5 pending RFAs plus players like Holtz, Zetterlund. from Utica What do they need Rico for?

it was more of an example i suppose. i'm not the biggest fan of our 3rd line (i don't think most people here are), so if we're gonna be rolling 4 lines, i'd rather we get a better veteran asset who plays w some balls (tatar is not that guy)

i guess thats why i listed lucic (again an example, but not exactly the type of player i'd want).

 

[Forge]

If we move Subban, I feel like it'll be because the team we traded him to has an expiring dead weight contract they can send back so that a third team doesn't have to be involved at all.

 

[Buck Dancer]

If we move Subban, I feel like it'll be because the team we traded him to has an expiring dead weight contract they can send back so that a third team doesn't have to be involved at all.

Yeah, I feel the same way and would also allow us to get bigger return instead minimizing our return by involving a third team.

 

[Hockey Sports Fan]

i would love to see Zacha and Subban moved, but i’m a little skeptical on both. The issue with Subban is money (and flat caps the past two years) and the issue with Zacha is whether a team will offer enough to justify the trade. As STI illustrated, Zacha likely has a lot of value among Hockey Men, including Fitz.

Severson i’m torn on. A big return would be nice, but nothing would be worth more than the Devils making the playoffs next season. I think that’s significantly less likely with Severson and Subban both replaced by rookies or free agents.

This is just the pessimist in me but i would not be at all surprised if no one moves on deadline day. I mean even with Vesey, is anyone really gonna want him?

 

[JrFischer54]

if the only two players the devils are moving are vesey and pk i really hope you guys aren't expecting some amazing return for them. my guess 3rd for pk that becomes more if a team advances and maybe at best a 2nd for vesey while yes i get its exciting and its "free picks" its still crap

 

[Hockey Sports Fan]

A 2nd for Vesey would be piracy.

 

[Triumph]

As such, I feel confident the Devils will get a passable return for Subban -- I would not be shocked by a 3rd round pick with some creative salary maneuvering. I feel Tatar is also a strong candidate to be dealt -- he was a bit of a desperation signing, but his contract is short and manageable and a team seeking scoring depth might be willing to give up a 3rd/4th rounder for him. A team seeking bottom 6 depth might give up a 5th or 6th round pick for Vesey, which is fine.

Tatar isn't being traded to a playoff team, they can do much better than that. If Tatar isn't cutting it here, where can he go? There's not many places. Arizona only has 7 forwards for next year, but they probably want to keep spots open to do what they did last off-season by getting unwanted players. I don't see a deal for Tatar opening up until the off-season and even then it's something similar to what happened with Butcher.

It's tough to bring up Zacha on these threads because he has become so triggering for the analytic set that people lose track of his true value. He's a player who paced for 28 goals last year and is pacing for over 20 this year, he's 6'3 and fast with a huge shot, he's young and making a fraction of what most NHL goal-scorers earn with just north of $2 million per year. His trade value is quite significant. All the rumors have focused on Vancouver, but several teams are looking for secondary scoring, and Zacha represents perhaps the best bargain on the market, and the only player on the market whose "change-of-scenery" upside might eventually even outshine his value right now. I feel Fitzgerald will get a first round pick or comparable prospect for Zacha, or at the very least a 2nd rounder and a good prospect.

CTRL-F: 'arbitration': no results. Pavel Zacha is not worth a 1st round pick, I've been over it with you a million times, that no player in Zacha's position has returned a 1st round pick, and there's no reason why he's special. It has nothing at all to do with analytics. Teams do not trade 1st round picks for players with the results of Pavel Zacha given that he is arbitration-eligible next season. It would be shocking to get one for him.

 

[ScottyK]

Pk gets moved in a typical rental deal.
Zacha gets moved in a " hockey trade"
Vesey gets moved if anyone offers anything better than a 6th.



Tom waits till summer to decide what to do on Damon

 

[Rydev]

If the deals were right, Id move all of those names minus Severson - Id even add Ty Smith

Id take picks for Vesey and Subban and package Zacha and Ty for a Boeser type move

 

[RangerDoggo]

I'd prefer to see Subban moved with salary retained, but I don't see Fitz doing much or anything this deadline. The feeling I get is that he thinks we're on the right track and he doesn't want to shake things up too much.

I can say for certain that Severson isn't going anywhere, nor should he.

 

[Tao Jersey Jones]

Pk gets moved in a typical rental deal.
Zacha gets moved in a " hockey trade"
Vesey gets moved if anyone offers anything better than a 6th.



Tom waits till summer to decide what to do on Damon

 

[Oneiro]

Vesey would be a sneaky depth add. If I'm a contender, I'd throw a 5th or 6th at us.

 

[JrFischer54]

People are naturally subjective, but let's have a look at GM Tom Fitzgerald's deadline trade history:

2/20: got a 2nd round pick for Andy Greene, which was a win for both teams.

2/20: turned Blake Coleman into Nolan Foote and Shakir Mukhamadullin, which was a huge win for both teams.

2/20: got a 5th for Wayne Simmonds, which was a won trade, but the Devils made a questionable pick of Topias Vilen with the 5th rounder. We'll call this one a meh-meh deal, since nothing of value was gotten by anyone.

2/20: turned the shell of what was once Sami Vatanen into a functional bottom-6 winger in Janne Kuokkanen and a 3rd round pick which turned into Nico Daws, who looks like he could be something really nice between the pipes. Huge win for the Devils here.

4/21: trades Palmieri and a soon-to-retire Zajac for a pair of AHL-ers and a 1st round pick. Palmieri and Zajac are integral in an Islanders playoff run which drops the pick from #20 to #29 overall in a thin 2021 draft. Devils lose out on some big talent in the 20-29 range but still get a the best pick of the final 5 2021 first-rounders in Chase Stillman. Win for both teams.

4/21: acquires Jonas Siegenthaler from Washington for a 3rd round pick. Siegenthaler now looks like one of the better shut-down defenders in the NHL. Just a tremendous win for the Devils.

4/21: trades Kulikov to Edmonton for a 4th round pick in 2022. I was hoping Devils would get more, but Kulikov was a UFA. We'll see how it goes with the pick. Another meh-meh deal.


I think we can say Fitzgerald has yet to lose a deadline deal, and he's won several. We can say with confidence he is very good at trading.

As such, I feel confident the Devils will get a passable return for Subban -- I would not be shocked by a 3rd round pick with some creative salary maneuvering. I feel Tatar is also a strong candidate to be dealt -- he was a bit of a desperation signing, but his contract is short and manageable and a team seeking scoring depth might be willing to give up a 3rd/4th rounder for him. A team seeking bottom 6 depth might give up a 5th or 6th round pick for Vesey, which is fine.

The big names here are Severson and Zacha. I do not feel the Devils trade Severson unless they are overwhelmed by a big trade offer. If Toronto offers a first round pick? Then the answer is no. But if Toronto offers a first-round pick, a third-round pick and top LW prospect Matthew Knies? Then yes, I think the Devils would be wise to pull the trigger.

It's tough to bring up Zacha on these threads because he has become so triggering for the analytic set that people lose track of his true value. He's a player who paced for 28 goals last year and is pacing for over 20 this year, he's 6'3 and fast with a huge shot, he's young and making a fraction of what most NHL goal-scorers earn with just north of $2 million per year. His trade value is quite significant. All the rumors have focused on Vancouver, but several teams are looking for secondary scoring, and Zacha represents perhaps the best bargain on the market, and the only player on the market whose "change-of-scenery" upside might eventually even outshine his value right now. I feel Fitzgerald will get a first round pick or comparable prospect for Zacha, or at the very least a 2nd rounder and a good prospect.

i still think he got fleeced on the palm zajac deal i've said that since it was announced. but otherwise yeah not bad problem is for a team thats been as bad as us thats all we have been able to sell at the deadline. thats why you can't afford to miss on your high draft picks.

 

[OmNomNom]

Vesey would be a sneaky depth add. If I'm a contender, I'd throw a 5th or 6th at us.

i think he's honestly worth at least a 4th - he's got PK abilities

 

[StevenToddIves]

Tatar isn't being traded to a playoff team, they can do much better than that. If Tatar isn't cutting it here, where can he go? There's not many places. Arizona only has 7 forwards for next year, but they probably want to keep spots open to do what they did last off-season by getting unwanted players. I don't see a deal for Tatar opening up until the off-season and even then it's something similar to what happened with Butcher.



CTRL-F: 'arbitration': no results. Pavel Zacha is not worth a 1st round pick, I've been over it with you a million times, that no player in Zacha's position has returned a 1st round pick, and there's no reason why he's special. It has nothing at all to do with analytics. Teams do not trade 1st round picks for players with the results of Pavel Zacha given that he is arbitration-eligible next season. It would be shocking to get one for him.

You've been over it with me a million times, but you haven't been correct any of those million times. Maybe stop going over it.

We do not know what is being offered for Pavel Zacha, but it will be determined by the NHL trade market and not your -- or my -- opinion. Pavel Zacha is a superior player to Nick Foligno, who received a 1st round pick and a 4th round pick at last year's deadline. The Devils got a 1st round pick for Kyle Palmieri when Fitzgerald sweetened the pot with Travis Zajac. Maybe some team will be willing to trade a first for Zacha plus a lesser player like Vesey or Johnsson? Two years ago Goodrow returned a 1st rounder while Athanasiou returned a pair of 2nd rounders. Heck, it wasn't too long ago that Tomas Tatar returned a 1st, 2nd and 4th round pick.

Looking at the contenders' trade needs there are several teams nearing the end of their contention windows who seek secondary scoring -- Boston, Pittsburgh, Washington, St. Louis. We can add in teams which might see Zacha as a present + future piece like Edmonton and Minnesota.

Who are the better scoring forwards available at the deadline? Devils fans like to complain about Zacha, but he has been better this year than other available forwards like Rakell, DeBrusk and the shell-which-once-was Kessel. News that San Jose might be close to extending Hertl leaves Giroux as quite possibly the only near-elite F to change teams come deadline day. After that, what are your choices? Well, I'll answer -- the next two guys down the list are probably Conor Garland and Pavel Zacha. Hagel, but the price set on him is huge. Maybe Andrew Copp.

The trade market is determined by supply and demand, not by analytics or opinion. The demand for secondary scoring is huge -- and there are several desperate teams in the market. When the supply does not meet the demand, the supply rises in value. When desperation enters the picture -- how many years do Crosby/Malkin or Bergeron/Marchand or Ovechkin/Carlson have left? -- the supply rises even more, which is how desperate GMs give out huge overpayments for Foligno and Tatar.

I'm not saying Pavel Zacha will definitely be traded for a 1st round pick. I'm not saying anything except, judging by not your opinion of the player but rather by the empirical facts of trade deadline precent and Tom Fitzgerald's sparkling trade history, there is a very good chance that Pavel Zacha gets a very nice return in a deadline deal.

I'm sure everyone on these boards familiar with both of us is expecting a reply post of "how can you compare Zacha to XXX???" with an accompanying analytic chart, but I want to make a pre-emptive strike by saying this is not based on my opinion of Pavel Zacha, but rather by using the empirical references I have available to me in past NHL trade deadline precedent and Tom Fitzgerald's trade tendencies. And also preemptively -- no, the Nick Foligno of 2021 to 2022 was not better than Pavel Zacha of 2021 to 2022.

 

[JrFischer54]

i'm not saying to hold onto these guys for top packages and stuff but if a team that has a cup window open now comes calling dont just give away players because "we will lose them for nothing" if team is trying to win a cup and they really need one of our guys then make them pay for it

if the devils have a set price in mind for suban say a 2nd rounder i wouldn't budge if a team came calling imo

 

[StevenToddIves]

i still think he got fleeced on the palm zajac deal i've said that since it was announced. but otherwise yeah not bad problem is for a team thats been as bad as us thats all we have been able to sell at the deadline. thats why you can't afford to miss on your high draft picks.

Fortunately, the Devils have been great with their high draft picks since pretty much when Shero took over. The Devils have a very enviable core right now.

Also, had the Islanders not made it to the conference finals, the Devils likely 1st round pick would have been 10 slots higher, which was a huge drop-off in a not-so-deep 2021 draft. I think that has to affect the outcome of the trade, but for Fitzgerald it was a good gamble to make.

 

[Triumph]

You've been over it with me a million times, but you haven't been correct any of those million times. Maybe stop going over it.

We do not know what is being offered for Pavel Zacha, but it will be determined by the NHL trade market and not your -- or my -- opinion. Pavel Zacha is a superior player to Nick Foligno, who received a 1st round pick and a 4th round pick at last year's deadline.

He is a totally different kind of player than Nick Foligno. That's what you seem to be missing. You don't need charts to tell you that these are two entirely different players, you just need to watch a hockey game or pay attention to the league at large.

The Devils got a 1st round pick for Kyle Palmieri when Fitzgerald sweetened the pot with Travis Zajac. Maybe some team will be willing to trade a first for Zacha plus a lesser player like Vesey or Johnsson? Two years ago Goodrow returned a 1st rounder while Athanasiou returned a pair of 2nd rounders. Heck, it wasn't too long ago that Tomas Tatar returned a 1st, 2nd and 4th round pick.

Again, you ignore the context of these trades entirely when you talk about them. Goodrow returned a 1st rounder because he was signed to a minimal deal for the next season. Tatar returned a 1st, 2nd, and 4th because he was signed for 3 more years at a decent price and he was neither old nor young; this sort of player rarely moves. Athanasiou was an overpay partially based on an expectation that the cap would go up. Athanasiou was also a superior player to Zacha but they are comparable in that they are soft-minute scorers who don't do a whole lot else for you.

The trade market is determined by supply and demand, not by analytics or opinion. The demand for secondary scoring is huge -- and there are several desperate teams in the market. When the supply does not meet the demand, the supply rises in value. When desperation enters the picture -- how many years do Crosby/Malkin or Bergeron/Marchand or Ovechkin/Carlson have left? -- the supply rises even more, which is how desperate GMs give out huge overpayments for Foligno and Tatar.

The Capitals are capped out and probably cannot add anything. I also don't know why the demand for secondary scoring is huge or why there are so many desperate teams in the market. We've seen little evidence of that so far. I'm not seeing huge holes on these teams. Boston definitely has a big hole at 2C but Zacha doesn't fill that because he is not a center.

I'm not saying Pavel Zacha will definitely be traded for a 1st round pick. I'm not saying anything except, judging by not your opinion of the player but rather by the empirical facts of trade deadline precent and Tom Fitzgerald's sparkling trade history, there is a very good chance that Pavel Zacha gets a very nice return in a deadline deal.

I'm sure everyone on these boards familiar with both of us is expecting a reply post of "how can you compare Zacha to XXX???" with an accompanying analytic chart, but I want to make a pre-emptive strike by saying this is not based on my opinion of Pavel Zacha, but rather by using the empirical references I have available to me in past NHL trade deadline precedent and Tom Fitzgerald's trade tendencies. And also preemptively -- no, the Nick Foligno of 2021 to 2022 was not better than Pavel Zacha of 2021 to 2022.

Once again, you didn't bring up arbitration at all in your analysis, so I have to question it. And yes, Nick Foligno is making more money than Pavel Zacha would as a UFA, but why bring that up?

 

[Blackjack]

Nobody expected Coleman to return a 1st round pick, and Palmieri was seen as more likely to return a 2nd+ than a 1st based on the terrible season he was having. I don't remember, but I don't think Savard and Foligno were expected to return 1sts last trade deadline.

Every year GMs talk a big game about not trading their 1st round pick and then they see other teams load up and don't want to blamed for inaction. Let's just see what happens.

 

[StevenToddIves]

He is a totally different kind of player than Nick Foligno. That's what you seem to be missing. You don't need charts to tell you that these are two entirely different players, you just need to watch a hockey game or pay attention to the league at large.



Again, you ignore the context of these trades entirely when you talk about them. Goodrow returned a 1st rounder because he was signed to a minimal deal for the next season. Tatar returned a 1st, 2nd, and 4th because he was signed for 3 more years at a decent price and he was neither old nor young; this sort of player rarely moves. Athanasiou was an overpay partially based on an expectation that the cap would go up. Athanasiou was also a superior player to Zacha but they are comparable in that they are soft-minute scorers who don't do a whole lot else for you.



The Capitals are capped out and probably cannot add anything. I also don't know why the demand for secondary scoring is huge or why there are so many desperate teams in the market. We've seen little evidence of that so far. I'm not seeing huge holes on these teams. Boston definitely has a big hole at 2C but Zacha doesn't fill that because he is not a center.



Once again, you didn't bring up arbitration at all in your analysis, so I have to question it. And yes, Nick Foligno is making more money than Pavel Zacha would as a UFA, but why bring that up?

My man, I literally wrote a pretty detailed post citing the facts of Tom Fitzgerald's trade history combined with the facts of NHL trade deadline history and then illustrated them with my own speculations of what might happen with the Devils trade deadline, which I specifically stated were my own speculations.

You replied with yet another argumentative post essentially dismissing me on the basis of my speculations not being as good as your speculations in your opinion.

I don't know what to say here to make it just stop. Um, you win?

 

[Brodeur]

TSN's Chris Johnston mentioned on his podcast yesterday that he hadn't heard much about Subban. Just taking a look at the RD for the playoff contenders and I don't see a ton of demand.

Florida: Ekblad|Gudas|Montour
Tampa: Cernak|Rutta|Bogosian|Foote
Toronto: Brodie|Holl|Lyubushkin|Liljegren
Boston: McAvoy|Carlo|Clifton

Carolina: Pesce|DeAngelo|Bear
Pittsburgh: Letang|Marino|Ruhwedel|Friedman
NY Rangers: Fox|Trouba|Schneider|Lundkvist
Washington: Carlson|Schultz|Jensen

Colorado: Makar|Johnson|Murray?|Barron
St. Louis: Parayko|Faulk|Bortuzzo
Minnesota: Spurgeon|Dumba|Merrill?|Addison
Nashville: Carrier|Fabbro|Myers|Benning
Dallas: Heiskanen|Klingberg|Hakanpaa

Calgary: Tanev|Andersson|Gudbranson
Los Angeles: Doughty|Roy|Durzi|Walker
Edmonton: Barrie|Bouchard|Ceci
Vegas: Pietrangelo|Theodore?|Whitecloud

It was rumored before the season that Boston/Toronto planned to keep tabs on Subban closer to the deadline. In theory, Subban could be an upgrade over Connor Clifton but it seems like Boston might be better served getting a top 4 LD. Toronto would probably be more interested in a Josh Manson type.

We'll see if there are injuries closer to the deadline. Tyson Barrie just got put on IR but should be back before the trade deadline.

 

[JrFischer54]

Nobody expected Coleman to return a 1st round pick, and Palmieri was seen as more likely to return a 2nd+ than a 1st based on the terrible season he was having. I don't remember, but I don't think Savard and Foligno were expected to return 1sts last trade deadline.

Every year GMs talk a big game about not trading their 1st round pick and then they see other teams load up and don't want to blamed for inaction. Let's just see what happens.

coleman was easily the most talented chip the devils had to trade he was absolutely expected to get a first round pick back. the devils were just extremely lucky the bolts had the canucks pick to give them otherwise getting basically a second round pick for him would've been brutal