- May 1, 2011
- 130,294
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Some of you get too caught up with small sample size and cherrypick stretches, as if they're exactly indicative of what a player really is or isn't.
The best example of this in recent years is the ''Cory is a .920% the last 16 games of the season. He's back. What's that? He was an .851% in the first 9 games? Nah, just a bad stretch. It's not like his play over the last 3 years is bad or anything'' so I always go back to that.
People do it when guys go on a cold stretch ''Well. he's only produced a 30 point a season pace over his last 10 or 12 games''. I mean, sometimes I've done the small sample size thing too, but only when it's apparent that it's much closer to what they really are than what they were for in the so many games before that. I even did it with Tedenby earlier today, but I think I made a good point with his final 89 games in the league being much drier than his first 31.
The point being is that nobody is terribly consistent over all 82 games. A guy that's a PPG player over a whole season? There's increments in between those 82 games (or however many they played that year) where they produced 3 or 4 points in 8 or 10 games. And then there's also increments in there where they might have scored 15 or 16 points over 10 particular games. Remember when Kovalchuk had that 9 or 10 game goalless drought in 11-12? Or maybe it even went 11-12 games? I remember it was the longest of his career up to that point. And he wound up scoring 38 goals or something that year in like 77 games. ''Well if you take out his 10 game stretch of 0, he scored 38 in 67 games!'' come on man.
When a goalie has a .920% save percentage over a full season of say 50-55 games? There's always a 10 or 12 game stretch where they were only a .895%-.900% or a 10-12 game stretch where they were a .930% or even .940% sometimes. And there's stretches where they go 15-20 games without a shutout and then they'll have 5 in between 20 games. You go to their splits and it's not October: .920%, November: .920%, December: .920%, January: .920%, February: .920%. March: .920%. April: .920%: It's not even like it's .925% for half the months and then .915% for the other half. There's .910% months, there's .930% months, sometimes there's an .898% month.
I'm sorry I always use goalie comparisons and I'm sure when (and if) Blackwood has a 10 game .920% stretch that brings his save percentage up to .905% on the season people will be doing the same thing.
The best example of this in recent years is the ''Cory is a .920% the last 16 games of the season. He's back. What's that? He was an .851% in the first 9 games? Nah, just a bad stretch. It's not like his play over the last 3 years is bad or anything'' so I always go back to that.
People do it when guys go on a cold stretch ''Well. he's only produced a 30 point a season pace over his last 10 or 12 games''. I mean, sometimes I've done the small sample size thing too, but only when it's apparent that it's much closer to what they really are than what they were for in the so many games before that. I even did it with Tedenby earlier today, but I think I made a good point with his final 89 games in the league being much drier than his first 31.
The point being is that nobody is terribly consistent over all 82 games. A guy that's a PPG player over a whole season? There's increments in between those 82 games (or however many they played that year) where they produced 3 or 4 points in 8 or 10 games. And then there's also increments in there where they might have scored 15 or 16 points over 10 particular games. Remember when Kovalchuk had that 9 or 10 game goalless drought in 11-12? Or maybe it even went 11-12 games? I remember it was the longest of his career up to that point. And he wound up scoring 38 goals or something that year in like 77 games. ''Well if you take out his 10 game stretch of 0, he scored 38 in 67 games!'' come on man.
When a goalie has a .920% save percentage over a full season of say 50-55 games? There's always a 10 or 12 game stretch where they were only a .895%-.900% or a 10-12 game stretch where they were a .930% or even .940% sometimes. And there's stretches where they go 15-20 games without a shutout and then they'll have 5 in between 20 games. You go to their splits and it's not October: .920%, November: .920%, December: .920%, January: .920%, February: .920%. March: .920%. April: .920%: It's not even like it's .925% for half the months and then .915% for the other half. There's .910% months, there's .930% months, sometimes there's an .898% month.
I'm sorry I always use goalie comparisons and I'm sure when (and if) Blackwood has a 10 game .920% stretch that brings his save percentage up to .905% on the season people will be doing the same thing.
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