Player Discussion Derick Brassard

[Senateurs]

Zibby at this point ,is what he is .300 games is the benchmark .he is a 45 to 55 point center .This trade was more about us moving on from him ,while getting a center that can better match how we would like the team to play.Brassard likely plays 3 years from us then moves on ,as we try one of White or Brown in his place

Maybe it's Turris who moves on. His contract is up in two years Vs 3 for Brassard. White may be ready to step into the #2C role by then.

 

[DrunkUncleDenis]

Still to bitter to like him. Hopefully when the season starts things change. At least I can admit i have a bias tho.

Be mad at the org, not the player. Not Brassard's fault that he got traded for your favourite player.

 

[Holdurbreathe]

Agreed, my bet is that he becomes a fan favourite before the 1st half of the season is done.

Only if the Sens win, otherwise he will become the whipping boy for all that is wrong with the team.

 

[Holdurbreathe]

I predict a career year for Brassard this year

You really believe he will top last year's production?

Anything is possible I suppose.

 

[Samsquanch]

You really believe he will top last year's production?

Anything is possible I suppose.

Despite what HFBoards would have you believe, not all players start to regress massively at the age of 29.... We could very possibly end up seeing 3 or more productive seasons out of Brassard.

He's going to be playing on a more offensively talented team that happens to feature Karlsson, so its not that big of a stretch at all. He's been playing the best hockey of his career these last few years. He strikes me as a guy who has figured out exactly what his role is, and how to be very effective at it.

 

[Holdurbreathe]

It's not just about Brassard, I think it's a strong message to the team and a means of conveying urgency to the players.

No one is safe - it's time to get serious. Dorion said as much with his comment about the exit interviews and the players who'd said they'd be good in 2 to 3 years, and how that wasn't good enough.

They bring in two veterans in Phaneuf and Brassard, both known for their work ethic.

They bring back Chris Kelly who, regardless of his on-ice skills at this point, is known for his work in practice, his approach to shorthanded play, and has a Cup ring to show for it since leaving the Sens.

There is a window of Anderson's effectiveness and Karlsson's current contract that they have to try to push through and improve season outcomes. Erik won't stick around if he doesn't see the team getting better, and while catering to one player seems a bit simplistic, Karlsson leaving would be a disaster.

I don't think it's a Cup window as much as demonstrating a more consistently improving team, finishing higher in the standings and hopefully putting up a playoff winning series or two.

Not sure what the message is other than the team acquired a left handed center for a right handed center to avoid a potentially expensive contract next year and gave up a 2nd round pick to avoid having to pay a $2M bonus this year.

While Brassard may help on the PP and possibly Ryan if the two can fins some chemistry, his acquisition doesn't address the team's biggest weakness, puck possession time.

The Senators were near the bottom of the league in possession time, (the accepted measure being shot attempts & unblocked shot attempts differential) and unless this is addressed the playoffs are just a dream.

So does the trade do anything to address this weakness?

A quick look at the statistics shows Zibanejad has the better possession numbers, so it is unlikely this trade will have a much of an impact on the weakest part of this team's game.

Fact is Guy Boucher and his staff are the key to whether or not the team improves
enough to be a playoff contender, not Brassard replacing Zibanejad.

While Brassard is definitely the more experienced player and may help Ryan (with some risk to Hoffman's production), this trade was mostly about money IMO.

Fact is unless the team goes deep into the playoffs, the Senators cannot afford to keep all the young players as they develop.

Zibanejad is the first to go and likely not the last unless Boucher can work magic over the next few years.

 

[BondraTime]

You really believe he will top last year's production?

Anything is possible I suppose.

Last year wasn't even Brassards best of his career.

I'm fully expecting Brassard to score ~65 points. He is going to be massive on the PP, and I'm expecting him and Ryan to mesh.

 

[benjiv1]

Not sure what the message is other than the team acquired a left handed center for a right handed center to avoid a potentially expensive contract next year and gave up a 2nd round pick to avoid having to pay a $2M bonus this year.

While Brassard may help on the PP and possibly Ryan if the two can fins some chemistry, his acquisition doesn't address the team's biggest weakness, puck possession time.

The Senators were near the bottom of the league in possession time, (the accepted measure being shot attempts & unblocked shot attempts differential) and unless this is addressed the playoffs are just a dream.

So does the trade do anything to address this weakness?

A quick look at the statistics shows Zibanejad has the better possession numbers, so it is unlikely this trade will have a much of an impact on the weakest part of this team's game.

Fact is Guy Boucher and his staff are the key to whether or not the team improves
enough to be a playoff contender, not Brassard replacing Zibanejad.

While Brassard is definitely the more experienced player and may help Ryan (with some risk to Hoffman's production), this trade was mostly about money IMO.

Fact is unless the team goes deep into the playoffs, the Senators cannot afford to keep all the young players as they develop.

Zibanejad is the first to go and likely not the last unless Boucher can work magic over the next few years.

Boucher will address our possession issues.

Team was fed up with Mika's lack of commitment. Wanted a more reliable left handed centre.

The 2nd Rd Pick was definitely about the $, but if Ottawa really wanted a player in the 2nd Rd, they could easily acquire a pick if need be.

 

[topshelf15]

Boucher will address our possession issues.

Team was fed up with Mika's lack of commitment. Wanted a more reliable left handed centre.

The 2nd Rd Pick was definitely about the $, but if Ottawa really wanted a player in the 2nd Rd, they could easily acquire a pick if need be.

Makes perfect sense.

 

[BondraTime]

Possession numbers and advanced stats for individuals can go suck an egg, so lazy

 

[benjiv1]

On the note of the 2nd Rd Pick.

Historically, the 2nd Rd produces maybe 5 legit NHL players? And usually it takes about 4 years to for said player to pan out.

This is why 2nd Rd Picks are usually the going rate for average rental players. It's not a complete shot in the dark, but at least you are getting some potential value.

 

[Micklebot]

You really believe he will top last year's production?

Anything is possible I suppose.

Despite what HFBoards would have you believe, not all players start to regress massively at the age of 29.... We could very possibly end up seeing 3 or more productive seasons out of Brassard.

He's going to be playing on a more offensively talented team that happens to feature Karlsson, so its not that big of a stretch at all. He's been playing the best hockey of his career these last few years. He strikes me as a guy who has figured out exactly what his role is, and how to be very effective at it.

Brassard's jump in production the last two seasons coincides with an increase in his role. Provided that he continues to have the same or greater role here in Ottawa (which it appears as though he will) he should absolutely have a chance of meeting or exceeding last years production. He may not hit 27 goals again, but 20-25 is very achievable, and a modest jump in pts is certainly not out of reach.

To dismiss it as "anything is possible" is unwarranted. It's certainly not a given, but he is moving a new team that looks like a great fit, and is likely to use him as a primary weapon on the 1st PP unit. He also gets the chance to benefit from the best offensive Dman in the league, and our 2nd pair should be far more effective than previous years. There are definitely factors in his favour that could justify some optimism.

 

[Senateurs]

I think he surpasses his career best point total but his numbers will look more like 2014-15 in terms of goal-assist ratio.

 

[Holdurbreathe]

Despite what HFBoards would have you believe, not all players start to regress massively at the age of 29.... We could very possibly end up seeing 3 or more productive seasons out of Brassard.

He's going to be playing on a more offensively talented team that happens to feature Karlsson, so its not that big of a stretch at all. He's been playing the best hockey of his career these last few years. He strikes me as a guy who has figured out exactly what his role is, and how to be very effective at it.

I wasn't suggesting or even hinting at the potential for Brassard to regress.

Fact is Brassard's past two seasons are his best ever production wise.

However to make a claim like the bolded is just ignoring the facts of the last two seasons.

Brassard accomplished his production numbers playing on a NYR team that has outscored Ottawa by 14 goals while allowing 85 fewer goals against over the past two years.

The NYR have also had the better possession numbers, which supports their GF/GA differential of +79 over the past two seasons while Ottawa was +12.

IMO the only way Brassard's production equals or exceeds either of his past two seasons is if Boucher can establish a system that significantly increases possession time, as well a fixes an anemic PP.

I have nothing against Brassard, just that it is disingenuous to expect a player to make a significant contribution without recognizing the framework he is expected to work within.

 

[BondraTime]

I wasn't suggesting or even hinting at the potential for Brassard to regress.

Fact is Brassard's past two seasons are his best ever production wise.

However to make a claim like the bolded is just ignoring the facts of the last two seasons.

Brassard accomplished his production numbers playing on a NYR team that has outscored Ottawa by 14 goals while allowing 85 fewer goals against over the past two years.

The NYR have also had the better possession numbers, which supports their GF/GA differential of +79 over the past two seasons while Ottawa was +12.

IMO the only way Brassard's production equals or exceeds either of his past two seasons is if Boucher can establish a system that significantly increases possession time, as well a fixes an anemic PP.

I have nothing against Brassard, just that it is disingenuous to expect a player to make a significant contribution without recognizing the framework he is expected to work within.

Has literally nothing to do with his point totals.

Are they a better defensive team, obviously, hence their GA.

Looking at it that way, Turris would have gotten 70+ points 2 years ago, and Stone would have been around 70+ last year had they been on the Rangers.

 

[Micklebot]

Possession time is system driven moreso than player driven. Toronto had the 13th best CF% in the league, not because they have top half of the league possession driving players, but because Babcock employs a possession driven system. Carlyle did the opposite, which is why prior to Babcock's arrival, a stronger Leafs roster had some of the worst CF% numbers in the league.

That said, you've used a single season to claim Zibanejad is a better possession driving player. Look at 2 or 3 seasons, and the results flip.

I'd also suggest that this teams biggest issue isn't possession time, it was special teams. Brassard certainly helps one of the worst PPs in the league (as does Boucher). Kelly was added to help the PK. More important, we also made a huge move to get Phaneuf (which addressed our biggest issue, a terrible 2nd pair) last year. That is one that speaks to the players, addresses our possession, PP, and PK. The fact that we continue to make incremental improvements is telling the players we aren't done yet, and will continue to support you in the goal of contending now.

 

[Samsquanch]

I wasn't suggesting or even hinting at the potential for Brassard to regress.

Fact is Brassard's past two seasons are his best ever production wise.

However to make a claim like the bolded is just ignoring the facts of the last two seasons.

Brassard accomplished his production numbers playing on a NYR team that has outscored Ottawa by 14 goals while allowing 85 fewer goals against over the past two years.

The NYR have also had the better possession numbers, which supports their GF/GA differential of +79 over the past two seasons while Ottawa was +12.

IMO the only way Brassard's production equals or exceeds either of his past two seasons is if Boucher can establish a system that significantly increases possession time, as well a fixes an anemic PP.

I have nothing against Brassard, just that it is disingenuous to expect a player to make a significant contribution without recognizing the framework he is expected to work within.

Who cares what happened the last two years though?

There is nothing wrong with me stating that I believe that next year Brassard is going to be playing on a more offensively talented team than the Rangers were the last two previous seasons.

We have a lot of guys that are primed to have big years (Stone, Karlsson, Hoffman, Turris, Ryan with a LH center), so its not a strech to say that he very well may end up playing with more productive players than he was in New York.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

You really believe he will top last year's production?

Anything is possible I suppose.

I am optimistic about it. I think he has a legit chance of exceeding his point totals.

I wasn't suggesting or even hinting at the potential for Brassard to regress.

Fact is Brassard's past two seasons are his best ever production wise.

However to make a claim like the bolded is just ignoring the facts of the last two seasons.

Brassard accomplished his production numbers playing on a NYR team that has outscored Ottawa by 14 goals while allowing 85 fewer goals against over the past two years.

The NYR have also had the better possession numbers, which supports their GF/GA differential of +79 over the past two seasons while Ottawa was +12.

IMO the only way Brassard's production equals or exceeds either of his past two seasons is if Boucher can establish a system that significantly increases possession time, as well a fixes an anemic PP.

I have nothing against Brassard, just that it is disingenuous to expect a player to make a significant contribution without recognizing the framework he is expected to work within.

Do you know what disingenuous means? "not candid or sincere" How is making a prediction that Brassard could top his annual point total not candid or sincere.

The framework could very well include more pp time. More ozone starts .... or just more chances to score, setup goals, playing with more productive players, chemistry...

Is it so far fetched to you that he breaks 60 points (previous high) that you'd consider an opinion that he will (Yes or No choice) disingenuous?

 

[Holdurbreathe]

Brassard's jump in production the last two seasons coincides with an increase in his role. Provided that he continues to have the same or greater role here in Ottawa (which it appears as though he will) he should absolutely have a chance of meeting or exceeding last years production. He may not hit 27 goals again, but 20-25 is very achievable, and a modest jump in pts is certainly not out of reach.

To dismiss it as "anything is possible" is unwarranted. It's certainly not a given, but he is moving a new team that looks like a great fit, and is likely to use him as a primary weapon on the 1st PP unit. He also gets the chance to benefit from the best offensive Dman in the league, and our 2nd pair should be far more effective than previous years. There are definitely factors in his favour that could justify some optimism.

Well I don't see it quite in quite so simple terms I guess, so its not unwarranted.

First, while EK is a generation talent even he couldn't raise the level of the PP unit above mediocrity so playing on a team with him guarantees nothing.

(FYI I am not blaming EK in anyway, just pointing out the obvious. It is a team game and even super talented people can't overcome weak systems or teammates)

Second, the biggest problem this team had was gaining puck possession and transitioning quickly and effectively.

Brassard's success, like the other top six or nine, will be heavily reliant on the effectiveness of the D and the system that Boucher installs to give the D the greatest opportunity to be successful.

The question that remains to be answered is what sacrifices does Boucher have to make offensively to help his D be effective?

IMO the answer to this won't be known until training or later, so this is why I have reservations about predicting production totals for any player.

My last concern about predicting production numbers for Brassard is the tendency for his RW to go into prolonged scoring droughts in the second half of the season. Hoffman has also tailed off, though not quite as severely as Ryan.

 

[Holdurbreathe]

Has literally nothing to do with his point totals.

Are they a better defensive team, obviously, hence their GA.

Looking at it that way, Turris would have gotten 70+ points 2 years ago, and Stone would have been around 70+ last year had they been on the Rangers.

Are suggesting possession time has nothing to do with point totals?

Unlike many I don't have a crystal ball that predicts with any reasonable accuracy what Turris or Stone might have produced with the NYR over the past two years.

However if Stone put together a complete season without injury or a dry spell he could have hit 70 points with Ottawa last year, so it is entirely possible he would do so on a better team in NY.

 

[BondraTime]

Are suggesting possession time has nothing to do with point totals?

Unlike many I don't have a crystal ball that predicts with any reasonable accuracy what Turris or Stone might have produced with the NYR over the past two years.

However if Stone put together a complete season without injury or a dry spell he could have hit 70 points with Ottawa last year, so it is entirely possible he would do so on a better team in NY.

I'm suggesting that you bringing up GF/GA has absolutely nothing to do with point totals of a player.

Yes, I am also suggesting that his point totals will not be affected by possession time.

We managed to score the same amount of goals as the Rangers, that is what matters for point totals. What difference does possession make? We scored our goals one way, they did another? A goal is a goal, doesn't matter if a team has possession 90% of the time or 20% of the time if they score the same amount, which is what drives a players point totals. The amount of GA doesn't factor into a players point totals, it's only GF last time I checked.

The Rangers were/are a better team, but we are just as good, if not better offensively.

 

[Holdurbreathe]

Possession time is system driven moreso than player driven. Toronto had the 13th best CF% in the league, not because they have top half of the league possession driving players, but because Babcock employs a possession driven system. Carlyle did the opposite, which is why prior to Babcock's arrival, a stronger Leafs roster had some of the worst CF% numbers in the league.

That said, you've used a single season to claim Zibanejad is a better possession driving player. Look at 2 or 3 seasons, and the results flip.

I'd also suggest that this teams biggest issue isn't possession time, it was special teams. Brassard certainly helps one of the worst PPs in the league (as does Boucher). Kelly was added to help the PK. More important, we also made a huge move to get Phaneuf (which addressed our biggest issue, a terrible 2nd pair) last year. That is one that speaks to the players, addresses our possession, PP, and PK. The fact that we continue to make incremental improvements is telling the players we aren't done yet, and will continue to support you in the goal of contending now.

You know better than this Micklebot.

Two or three years ago Zibanejad was 19 - 21 years old, a raw talent learning his trade in the NHL. I would expect a 25 - 27 year old to have better possession numbers.

I do agree with you that the special teams need improvement, but Ottawa's SF/SA (ranked 27th and 30th) differential is near the bottom of the league and that is an indication of possession time.

 

[operasen]

He'll have better wingers in Ryan (if indeed they are put together and find chemistry) and Hoffman or MacArthur. They will put up good numbers and that will increase Brassards.

I like our Top 8 a lot. I want to see who is put with Pageau and Smith. This is a key and I wonder if Lazar is the person slotted or if its someone else. Brassard has taken a lot of pressure off Turris.

 

[Zorf]

I do agree with you that the special teams need improvement, but Ottawa's SF/SA (ranked 27th and 30th) differential is near the bottom of the league and that is an indication of possession time.

Honest question.

Is it reasonable to even bother to compare possession numbers when talking about players being moved to a team with a new coaching staff?

I struggle to see the importance of what the possession numbers on NYR were because we have no clue how the Sens are going to play this upcoming season, and in the seasons after, as the players get used to Boucher's style of play.

I think there are way too many variables to try and quantify what a player will be like based solely on the advanced stats of their previous team when they are coming to a complete unknown.


I just feel like we don't need to attribute numbers to everything we do. I think using advanced stats from previous years on a different team seem irrelevant to me when we think and discuss what we hope Brassard will do on the Sens.

I think it makes more sense to use your knowledge of hockey, knowledge of how Brassard plays, and how his potential linemates play, and then make predictions based on that.

I'm not trying to bash advanced stats here...even though I admit that I don't care for them all that much...but I am struggling to see how they apply in this discussion.



edit: If Cameron and his terrible coaching staff were still in place, then I think SF/SA might have more influence on this discussion, but thankfully, that doofus and his band of knuckledraggers are all gone. Because then we could compare a known NYR style and numbers to a known Sens style and numbers.

 

[Micklebot]

Well I don't see it quite in quite so simple terms I guess, so its not unwarranted.

First, while EK is a generation talent even he couldn't raise the level of the PP unit above mediocrity so playing on a team with him guarantees nothing.

(FYI I am not blaming EK in anyway, just pointing out the obvious. It is a team game and even super talented people can't overcome weak systems or teammates)

The PP suffered when we ceased to have a playmaking center. Teams became able to focus entirely on Karlsson taking away time and space. The addition of Brassard addresses that issue in part, as do the additions of Phaneuf and a HC that is renowned for being a PP specialist.

Second, the biggest problem this team had was gaining puck possession and transitioning quickly and effectively.

This was a huge issue in particular with the second pairing, which has been addressed by the addition of Phaneuf. Ceci (the consistent of our 2nd pair) went from a CF% of ~43.5% to 48.5% with Phaneuf (during a time which we were missing our 1st line center and 2nd line LW. We've also changed out the coaching staff which could have a significant affect here as we're unlikely to see as much Dzuirinsky, or Boro playing as a forward.

Brassard's success, like the other top six or nine, will be heavily reliant on the effectiveness of the D and the system that Boucher installs to give the D the greatest opportunity to be successful.

Sure, just like every single player out there I guess.

The question that remains to be answered is what sacrifices does Boucher have to make offensively to help his D be effective?

Does he have to make sacrifices? We've essentially added 62 games (minus any time injured, he played 20 with us last year) of Phaneuf to our top 4, a significant improvement over Wier/Cowen. As mentioned, our second pair's performance greatly improved with him and if we prorated his performance with Ceci to cover ceci's entire season, it would have significantly improved the teams CF% pushing us to even with Florida. That's one change in personnel that could account for more than a full % point rise in CF%, which is pretty substantial.

We should see a return of MacArthur to the top 9, possibly the top 6. Bare minimum, that`s a welcome improvement over guys like Boro, Dzuirinzky, McCormick being used.

We should also see Turris playing without a sprained ankle, which could certainly help, as Cameron was giving Turris soft deployment after the injury to insulate him, which shifted the tough starts and matchups down the lineup.

IMO the answer to this won't be known until training or later, so this is why I have reservations about predicting production totals for any player.

That's totally reasonable, but does having reservations warrant saying I guess anything is possible? That's a completely different level of pessimism than saying "I'll hold off until I have a bit more info before making predictions". In one case, you're suggesting it's unlikely. In the other, you're saying you are unsure of the affects of the numerous moving parts going into this season and would like to hold off until more info is available.

My last concern about predicting production numbers for Brassard is the tendency for his RW to go into prolonged scoring droughts in the second half of the season. Hoffman has also tailed off, though not quite as severely as Ryan.

He doesn't even have a designated RW yet, nor is Hoffman his designated LW. You're perfectly willing to assume the negative, but want to hold off for anything that could be positive. Despite all that, in the end, Ryan and Hoffman's production across the full year still is what it is. If we assume that he's playing with them, and will suffer with expected end of year droughts, we have to assume that he will also gain from their hot starts.