Whileee
Registered User
- May 29, 2010
- 46,075
- 33,132
I think it's very early in a very unusual season. The Jets' game state distribution is flat-out crazy, and I don't think there's any chance that they'll finish with that distribution.Similar to this:
Adjusted Possession Measures
And this:
Score-Adjusted PDO - NHL Numbers
Ya, I edited that but I was too late.
"The things Colorado does well results in a 106.7 PDO, in my opinion."
I have similar qualitative observations in Jets shot selection, but I do not see it as causing a successful team perform better than their shot differentials in a sustainable manner.
As to the Hellebuyck thing, I think a bit of this has to do with "big and boring" and also how goals both impact heuristics, IMO.
Do you really think Jets will finish this season with being 3 st dev above the typical season mean in dFenSh%?
I also don't think they'll continue to shoot at the same shooting percentage, but I think that shooting percentage and scores are not independent of shot attempts. I think that as the score effects even out and the Jets start chasing some games, or have longer stretches tied or in close games against poorer opposition (they've spent quite a bit of their time tied or close against teams like the Leafs, Pens, Jackets and Canes), their shot metrics will improve, and their shooting percentages will decline.
I've noted for some time that the Jets' style has changed since 2014/15, with a lot more emphasis on actual puck possession and fewer shot attempts. I think it's largely due to their changing team composition (skilled players that look for perfect plays and less-skilled players like Lowry and Armia that cycle and cycle their way through shifts in the offensive end, often without taking a shot). I don't know how much of that is coaching. I also noted early this season that the Jets' defensive posture was more compact, leading to a lot of shots against but fewer second chances or cross-slot chances. I made these observations before the shot metrics data for this season started to accumulate, so I guess I'm not as surprised as some.
I think the jury is out as to whether this style can be successful over the longer haul. I am certainly enjoying the lack of frequent gilt-edged scoring chances against, chasing games, and how they have been ruthlessly efficient in their offence. I can't think of very many "lucky" goals scored, though I think they need to take more shots to benefit more from luck.
I'm very skeptical of the approach of looking at some metrics and then cherry-picking video evidence to support it. Talk about "confirmation bias"... If you are going to use video evidence to assess a team's style and performance, you need to be as systematic as you would be with data like shot attempts, etc.