Countdown...the Task At Hand (possible wild card?)

[BK]

Well of course people are in two camps. Why wouldn't they be? Some may say 'no big deal, they'll flip the switch'. Others, like me, will say possibly pizzing away a 20 point lead to drop to a WC spot in 6 weeks is a big deal.

As for last year, not a comparison. The Wild were on an epic horseshoe run due to the insane play of a goalie that their coach didn't rest. That caught up with them in the playoffs. The Wild, however, did the Hawks a huge favor by knocking out STL. Imagine NASH/STL/ANA as the run to the SCF.

But the 'this year v. last year' comparisons fall down. Last year the Hawks were coasting and more importantly, one of the best players in the NHL (and this year's MVP) was out injured. That's simply not the same thing this year.

I know I'm verbose. I do so to try to explain my positions rather than just spouting them. I'd like someone in the 'hey, its the Hawks. They always do this and always flip the switch' camp to explain to me specifically why that will happen with THIS roster and reference specific issues - roster gaps, special teams, one line carrying the team all year, etc. Or are the Hawks just going through a horrible stretch because a 4th line center was out and because another guy is making $4.5M playing in Rockford?

I see it from both sides. Yes Kane was out and the team was coasting but you are ignoring the other side of how things were last year.

Similarities:
- Star player is out (Crow and Kane)
- New additions to the team still gelling and struggling when they join the team (I would argue Ladd is the one struggling, Flash and Weise have played well)
- Team getting hot and closing on our playoff spot (Wild last year and Nashville this year, Dubynk got hot last year and Rinne is hot this year)
- Hossa missing games
- Toews/Keith coasting

Differences:
- Seabrook struggling
- Missing JO
- Darling has been inconsistent

 

[ChiHawks10]

Yes, the past couple weeks have been insanely disappointing, but that being said..... not to compare this year's team with last year's, or this year's midseason slump with last year's, we did dip temporarily into a wild card slot last season as well.

The February/March doldrums are formulaic for this team. At this point, there's nothing we can do but hopefully wait it out. Is the past month or so a sign that we're not an elite team this year or just a bump in the road that's unusually large?

Dunno. I'm not going to panic just yet until we're in a big hole in the playoffs.

I honestly can't really think of any other time the Hawks had a significant losing streak similar to this one this year. This is their first significant swing of bad play.

They've lost two in a row a handful of times this year, and 3 in a row once, maybe twice if you count the current string of bad games/play. Never more than that. Most teams go through one of these kind of lulls throughout the season. The Hawks just seem to have hit it right before the PO's in the stretch run. I still have confidence that they right the ship. Gotta have some faith sometimes. Let the guys iron out their issues.

 

[RememberTheRoar]

All of the nay sayers haven't chimed in quite yet but it sounds to me like this backyard character is enjoying all of these posts and actually gloating about Hawks poor play. Whatever rings your chimes, i guess.

That's exactly the tone I get from his posts as well.

 

[BobbyJet]

In my mind the worse part of this collapse is the fact that Hawks are now in a position to have to fight for a key spot in the standings. A month ago they looked they could coast home to easily finish 3rd (at worst) in the Central. Now the prospect of facing Kings in round one is very real and the rest of the league would love that to happen.

Time for Hawks to show their character.

 

[RememberTheRoar]

In my mind the worse part of this collapse is the fact that Hawks are now in a position to have to fight for a key spot in the standings. A month ago they looked they could coast home to easily finish 3rd (at worst) in the Central. Now the prospect of facing Kings in round one is very real and the rest of the league would love that to happen.

Time for Hawks to show their character.

Here's an interesting thought. What if the Hawks are okay with getting the Kings in the first round? If they get them in the first, then they get to face the toughest team before being worn down.

 

[Fortyfives]

I honestly can't really think of any other time the Hawks had a significant losing streak similar to this one this year. This is their first significant swing of bad play.

They've lost two in a row a handful of times this year, and 3 in a row once, maybe twice if you count the current string of bad games/play. Never more than that. Most teams go through one of these kind of lulls throughout the season. The Hawks just seem to have hit it right before the PO's in the stretch run. I still have confidence that they right the ship. Gotta have some faith sometimes. Let the guys iron out their issues.

The Hawks did have a streak of 0-8-1 in 2011

The also had a crap January last season.

 

[ChiHawks10]

The Hawks did have a streak of 0-8-1 in 2011

The also had a crap January last season.

Right. I was speaking about this year in particular, though. Every team tends to have a bad streak of games/ bad play, like the Hawks are currently having. Look at Anaheim early in the season.

All I was meaning is teams go through things like this throughout the season. It's inevitable. The Hawks struggles, of late, are magnified because it's down the stretch run after the TDL, and leading into the PO's. No other reason. If this were in the beginning of the season, or the middle, and the Hawks were on their 12 game win streak heading into the PO's, it wouldn't be so bad, IMO. Or as much of a story. Even still, people would say "They're wasting their good hockey before the PO's start." It's always something.

We've been spoiled in that most seasons since 07-08 the Hawks rarely have a stretch of bad play that lasts more than a pair of games or three. Now they have one, and all the sudden the world is ending.

This is still a good team people. Don't worry so much. This will pass. The PO's are coming. And I, for one, can't wait!

 

[Beukeboom Fan]

Well of course people are in two camps. Why wouldn't they be? Some may say 'no big deal, they'll flip the switch'. Others, like me, will say possibly pizzing away a 20 point lead to drop to a WC spot in 6 weeks is a big deal.

As for last year, not a comparison. The Wild were on an epic horseshoe run due to the insane play of a goalie that their coach didn't rest. That caught up with them in the playoffs. The Wild, however, did the Hawks a huge favor by knocking out STL. Imagine NASH/STL/ANA as the run to the SCF.

But the 'this year v. last year' comparisons fall down. Last year the Hawks were coasting and more importantly, one of the best players in the NHL (and this year's MVP) was out injured. That's simply not the same thing this year.

I know I'm verbose. I do so to try to explain my positions rather than just spouting them. I'd like someone in the 'hey, its the Hawks. They always do this and always flip the switch' camp to explain to me specifically why that will happen with THIS roster and reference specific issues - roster gaps, special teams, one line carrying the team all year, etc. Or are the Hawks just going through a horrible stretch because a 4th line center was out and because another guy is making $4.5M playing in Rockford?

Couple of questions:

1) Didn't the Hawks lose 9 in a row in 2010? Did that doom them?

2) Did you think that this Hawks team "didn't have it" before their recent swoon?

3) Besides the recency bias, why do you think their current performance is how they will play in the P/O's?

4) On paper this Hawks team is better than last years. Why does Bickell in the minors matter?

5) What is the big deal with the wildcard? Haeks are going to have to go on the road and likely beat 3 really teams to play for the Cup. I don't see STL/DAL/LA as a ton easier than ANA/LA/STL. Obviously not prefered, especially with the travel, but it not like the Hawks have a cakewalk in either case.

I do agree that their current performance is concerning. I just don't think it fair to say that "thus team doesn't have it" based on a 10 game sample size.

 

[Sir Loin]

Couple of questions:

1) Didn't the Hawks lose 9 in a row in 2010? Did that doom them?

2) Did you think that this Hawks team "didn't have it" before their recent swoon?

3) Besides the recency bias, why do you think their current performance is how they will play in the P/O's?

4) On paper this Hawks team is better than last years. Why does Bickell in the minors matter?

5) What is the big deal with the wildcard? Haeks are going to have to go on the road and likely beat 3 really teams to play for the Cup. I don't see STL/DAL/LA as a ton easier than ANA/LA/STL. Obviously not prefered, especially with the travel, but it not like the Hawks have a cakewalk in either case.

I do agree that their current performance is concerning. I just don't think it fair to say that "thus team doesn't have it" based on a 10 game sample size.

To answer question #1, if you're talking about the 2009-10 season, then no. They only lost 3 straight twice.

 

[Paul Allen]

To answer question #1, if you're talking about the 2009-10 season, then no. They only lost 3 straight twice.

They may have not lost 9 straight but they did have a terrible stretch of play around the same time as this year when Campbell was out with a broken clavicle.

 

[JustABlackhawksFan]

Such recency bias all across HFBoards.

Watch the Hawks go on a bit of a winning streak against bottom feeders down the stretch and they'll be back to being viewed as Cup favorites.

That said, this is all contingent on Crawford being back for the playoffs. The Hawks are not going far if their back-up goalie becomes their playoff starter.

 

[G0AT]

So, what is the Hawks magic number currently?

 

[BrianE]

In my mind the worse part of this collapse is the fact that Hawks are now in a position to have to fight for a key spot in the standings. A month ago they looked they could coast home to easily finish 3rd (at worst) in the Central. Now the prospect of facing Kings in round one is very real and the rest of the league would love that to happen.

Time for Hawks to show their character.

Except the kings would not .....i for one would much prefer a tougher opponent in the first round, will see what were made of.

 

[BobbyJet]

Here's an interesting thought. What if the Hawks are okay with getting the Kings in the first round? If they get them in the first, then they get to face the toughest team before being worn down.

Except the kings would not .....i for one would much prefer a tougher opponent in the first round, will see what were made of.

Every year we get a few posters who say this. Personally I prefer the more physical teams beat the snot out of each other before we have to face them.

On another note: Q is now saying that he hopes Crawford is back for the post season ... and that's close to 3 weeks away. Conclusion: Crawford has a concussion.

 

[Toews2Bickell]

To answer question #1, if you're talking about the 2009-10 season, then no. They only lost 3 straight twice.

The year they lost 9 in a row was 2011-2012, I believe. They were top the west then Toews went down with a concussion, iirc.

 

[Sir Loin]

The year they lost 9 in a row was 2011-2012, I believe. They were top the west then Toews went down with a concussion, iirc.

That was a forgettable year, check out the roster and stats. Lots of injuries throughout the season. Leddy and Crow hadn't come into their own yet. No Campbell or Brower even.

Caught a hot goalie (for round one) in the first round. Wasn't in the stars....

 

[BrianE]

Every year we get a few posters who say this. Personally I prefer the more physical teams beat the snot out of each other before we have to face them.

On another note: Q is now saying that he hopes Crawford is back for the post season ... and that's close to 3 weeks away. Conclusion: Crawford has a concussion.

Well we also may get to face the Blues in 1st round whom are similar and we know how they play, either way no getting around it unless we play better. If we were atop the division the conversation would be different.

 

[hawksfan50]

OK. .after the loss tonight to Minn, because Dallas beat the Preds 5-2 we are still 4 up on them.

NASHVILLE plays The Penguins next (Thurs Mar.31st).then SJ ...then easy ones with the Avs and Yotes ..But They finish April 9th in Dallas ..


So then IF Dallas and STL are still fighting it out for 1st in the Central..then Dallas Will bring it and not rest their players that last game ..So IF we get PITT and SJ beating Nashville ..but Nashville beating tge Avs and Yotes ..all in regulation or any combo of 2 w 2 L for Nashville if all these 4 games are in regulation time ..then Nashvilke ties us in points going into the last games for each April 9th. Assuming we lose 4 straight games of the 5 remaining in regulation.

NOW should it came down to that last game and maybe Keith back if he only gets 4 games suspension
Then we expect Dallas to bring it for that last game as a home victory and hopefully in regulation.

WE play CBJ ...

ON the other hand ..what if Nashville gets only the 4 of 10 final possible points for them and we go 0-5 all regulation losses..And what if Minn wins 8/10 possible remaining points for them? I'M such a case all 3 teams (Hawks Preds Wild all end up tied in points and it would come down to ROW ...

Probably unlikely but not that far-fetched given our own dilemma with guys out for suspension or injury ...We easily could lose 5 more in straight regulation ...no Keith (4-5 game suspension likely)..CC out till playoffs or longer...Seabs? Anisimov?

 

[hawksfan50]

OK. ..Keith not a repeat offender as defined under tge 18 month rule time frame since last suspension..so he will not get a longer suspension. ..Probably 3 games ...minimum 2 ...max. .Probably 3 .


Anyway the race for 3rd and the 2 wildcards:

WE still have 4 point lead on Nashville and 8 on Minnesota.

ALL 3 teams have 5 games remaining..

ALL 3 have 3 at home and 2 away..

Here are the games for each:


Chicago plays:

@(A) Jets
@(H) Bruins
@(H) Yotes
@(H) STL
@(A) CBJ


Nashville plays:

@(A) PITT
@(H) SJ
@ (H) AVS
@(H) YOTES
@ (A) STARS

Minnesota plays:

@(H) SENS
@(A) WINGS
@(A) JETS
@(H) STARS
@(H) FLAMES

IF depleted and slumping big guns Hawks go 0-5 ...It looks feasible hot improving Minn on a win streak could go 5-0 or at least 4-1 or 4-0-1 ...getting 8,9 or all 10 points...

So they could finish ahead of us if we lose out all in regulation...Looks doable for them to get 8-10 points.

Nashvilke only 4 back of us but they have a tougher schedule than Minn...they probably beat the Avs and Yotes at home both games ..but Pitt in Pitt and tge final game in Dallas are going to be tough for them..The SJ game at home coukd also be tough unless SJ starts resting guys giving up on catching ANH or L.A. ahead of them..So Let us say Nashville at worst goes 2-3 and at best goes 3-2 ..So 4-6 points out of 10.

SO if the Hawks go 0-5 all in 4egulation time then both Nashville and Minnesota could realistically overtake us and we would be last wildcard. It could also end tied in points if Nashville gets 6/10 points and Minn gets 8/10 points and we get 0/10 points..A 3-way tie goes to tie-breakers but we will worry about that if it happens.