Speculation: Could "Stamkos to Toronto" Have Financial Motivations?

[Gabriel426]

I'd pay Marner and Nylander what they are worth as UFAs, and not a penny more. If either wants $11 million and isn't worth that money, goodbye. Other factors would include where we are in terms of rebuild, and our cap situation. That's the beauty of Marner and Nylander. We don't need to worry about that for another 7 years at least.

Well, i did stated the Leafs made it to Conf, Finals. So I guess at that point it is not rebuild anymore. You said you would sign Willie and Marner as their UFA value, what if their UFA value is 11mil?
My original point is about, what would happen if the above is the case and does that mean let Willie and Marner walks bc the most they could do is get Leafs into the Conf, finals and let's rebuild. Since signing them long term will hurt the cap and they are destine to decline in productions.

 

[Grapes1]

Your 70 point comment is right on the money. I realize TB is in tough in the upcoming years with all their salary issues so they need to be careful with this. But......you think if it was Tavares up for renewal instead of Stamkos on TB they'd have to spend more than 10 seconds deciding whether to make him the top paid player in the league? It would be a no brainer. The fact that Stamkos is looking more and more like a 70 point guy and not the 95 point guy he was a few years ago is why this is such a tough decision for them.

HUH? Stamkos and Tavares are the same age, and Stamkos has had the better season every year other than 2 seasons, one was the year that Stamkos was on a torrid pace but got injured, and the other being last year, but Stammer still had more goals at 43.

Career to date: Stamkos >Tavares.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I knew as soon as I posted Jamie Benn would be the first guy mentioned in response I completely agree that you can hit a home run and get great players later on in the draft. Benn's amazing for sure, but I personally wouldn't put him in the same category as guys like Crosby, Tavares, Ovi though. He won the scoring title last year and still didn't even finish top 10 in Hart voting. The type of guys that year after year are in the Hart trophy mix usually only grow on one tree, and it's called the lottery tree. And it's about odds as well. The odds of the Leafs developing a 5th rounder into Benn are next to nothing, but the odds of them getting a one day Hart trophy candidate out of Auston Matthews are really good.

I realize there's many ways to build a cup contender. The Montreal example you gave is a good one. LA didn't follow the suck for years blueprint either (although that 2nd overall Doughty pick sure helped). In the end it's really just my personal preference for them to build a cup contender by following that plan and getting those top 2 picks and then building around them for the better part of a decade. I have no interest in being a good team for a few years and then back to reality. I want sustained success with a core of superstars(again, just my personal preference). I look at what Chicago and Pittsburgh did and that's the type of team I want. Once you have that Toews/Kane or Crosby/Malkin combo it's hard not to be a contender it seems. You obviously need other pieces (Keith, etc.) and it hasn't resulted in multiple cups for PIT due to many different reasons, but almost every year going into the playoffs for a good 7 year span people considered them one of the cup favorites. I figure the Leafs are already as low as they can be so there's no better time to do this than now...what's a couple extra years?

So you could see that Benn comment coming eh.

I feel you pain and I agree completely - what's a couple of extra years? Not gonna happen though, not with Babcock here, we won't be losing on purpose. It's not so bad though, we're really not very good, we're not rushing our prospects like Nylander, hell we're not even letting Rielly play much on the PP and hopefully we'll trade away some players for picks etc. and still finish bottom 5 this year and who knows maybe we'll get lucky and win the lottery.

I take consolation in the fact that we may not get another top 5 pick and we never lucked into a superstar but ... leaving that aside, we have absolutely everything else you could possibly ask for. Mangement seems to be committed to the long-term and is thinking progressively (ie. Dubas), we have Babcock who seems to be amazing, we have Hunter who seems to perhaps be as good as advertised, and we also have Rielly, Marner and Nylander. Yeah Matthews would be the icing on the cake but I really believe we can be more than relevant with what we have, it's going to take some time.

 

[Gary Nylund]

HUH? Stamkos and Tavares are the same age, and Stamkos has had the better season every year other than 2 seasons, one was the year that Stamkos was on a torrid pace but got injured, and the other being last year, but Stammer still had more goals at 43.

Career to date: Stamkos >Tavares.

Stamkos broke his leg and there's seems to be serious doubt as to whether or not he will ever be the player he once was. If I have a choice between the two, I take Tavares without hesitation.

Career going forward IMO: Tavares >Stamkos.

 

[Ciao]

Signed,

Mike Bossy (retired at 30)
Ken Dryden (retired at 31)
Bobby Orr (30)
Mario Lemieux (31)
Pavel Bure (32)
Pat Lafontaine (33)
Eric Lindros (34)
Cam Neeley (31)

And your point is???

If Stamkos has a career-ending injury he would be on LTIR and probably insured, but there would be no cap hit. Too bad for him, but it wouldn't hurt the Leafs.

If he chooses to retire young, like Ken Dryden, no skin off the Leafs nose unless they somehow screwed around with his contract, and there's less room for that under the current CBA.

What on Earth does Mike Bossy leaving the game early due to bad back, Bobby Orr's blown-out knee, or Ken Dryden deciding it was time to get with a career in law and politics have to do with Steve Stamkos?

I don't get it.

Please explain.

 

[Ciao]

Stamkos broke his leg and there's seems to be serious doubt as to whether or not he will ever be the player he once was. If I have a choice between the two, I take Tavares without hesitation.

Career going forward IMO: Tavares >Stamkos.

Me too.

When does Tavares hit the market?

 

[The Examiner]

Signed,

Mike Bossy (retired at 30)
Ken Dryden (retired at 31)
Bobby Orr (30)
Mario Lemieux (31)
Pavel Bure (32)
Pat Lafontaine (33)
Eric Lindros (34)
Cam Neeley (31)

You're listing players from a totally different generation. Orr, Neely, Lindros, Lafontaine, and Lemieux were pretty beat up. That was a time where there wasn't as much concern for player safety as there is now. The equipment was paper thin. Players are more focused on their health nowadays and actually have stricter diets and workout regimes. Lemieux used to finish his cigarette, right before stepping on the ice, ffs. Why do I bring it up, you know exactly what you're doing. I'm not a fan of disingenuous people. I think I'll hit that button on you. Ain't nobody got time for dat!

If you look at Chicago, they have built through their young players but they did sign a 30 year old Hossa who is still contributing to this day, at 36/37 years old. Yes, he's on a cap friendly deal but Toews and Kane are making 10 million.

If you figure the Leafs will compete in 3 years then the cap hit for Stamkos is not a problem. By then, Bozak, JVR, and Lupul will be off the books and Stammer will be 29/30 years old. 30 years old is not old in today's NHL.

I still think they must get rid of some of those contracts if they want to sign Stamkos. It's not necessarily a must but it would help a lot.

It could be a very interesting summer. I just hope That wherever Stamkos signs, it's done with as little drama as possible. The Richards situation was annoying.

 

[BayStreetBully]

Well, i did stated the Leafs made it to Conf, Finals. So I guess at that point it is not rebuild anymore. You said you would sign Willie and Marner as their UFA value, what if their UFA value is 11mil?
My original point is about, what would happen if the above is the case and does that mean let Willie and Marner walks bc the most they could do is get Leafs into the Conf, finals and let's rebuild. Since signing them long term will hurt the cap and they are destine to decline in productions.

If Marner is worth $11 million, that is because he is producing like a perennial Art Ross contender, or is a top 10 scorer but also a Selke contender at the same time, like what Datsyuk was in his prime. I'd pay him and then build my team around him. If Nylander is doing the same, I'd pay them both and work around those two players.

Heck, I'd pay McDavid $14 million per year as a UFA at max term is he was scoring 50% more than the next best scorer, with no signs of slowing down. And that would be a steal. When a player makes it impossible for you to say no, that's when it's a no-brainer.

 

[Gabriel426]

If Marner is worth $11 million, that is because he is producing like a perennial Art Ross contender, or is a top 10 scorer but also a Selke contender at the same time, like what Datsyuk was in his prime. I'd pay him and then build my team around him. If Nylander is doing the same, I'd pay them both and work around those two players.

Heck, I'd pay McDavid $14 million per year as a UFA at max term is he was scoring 50% more than the next best scorer, with no signs of slowing down. And that would be a steal. When a player makes it impossible for you to say no, that's when it's a no-brainer.

Why can't Marner and Willie be at Stamkos current level and demand 10mil a yr when they hit UFA?

 

[Pookie]

You're listing players from a totally different generation. Orr, Neely, Lindros, Lafontaine, and Lemieux were pretty beat up. That was a time where there wasn't as much concern for player safety as there is now. The equipment was paper thin. Players are more focused on their health nowadays and actually have stricter diets and workout regimes. Lemieux used to finish his cigarette, right before stepping on the ice, ffs. Why do I bring it up, you know exactly what you're doing. I'm not a fan of disingenuous people. I think I'll hit that button on you. Ain't nobody got time for dat!

If you look at Chicago, they have built through their young players but they did sign a 30 year old Hossa who is still contributing to this day, at 36/37 years old. Yes, he's on a cap friendly deal but Toews and Kane are making 10 million.

If you figure the Leafs will compete in 3 years then the cap hit for Stamkos is not a problem. By then, Bozak, JVR, and Lupul will be off the books and Stammer will be 29/30 years old. 30 years old is not old in today's NHL.

I still think they must get rid of some of those contracts if they want to sign Stamkos. It's not necessarily a must but it would help a lot.

It could be a very interesting summer. I just hope That wherever Stamkos signs, it's done with as little drama as possible. The Richards situation was annoying.

Those players were stars and were out. Done. If you think those are extreme examples, that's fine. What of the players whose production falls off as they age?

Mats Sundin is a great example here. As a 30-31 year old, he had a 94 point campaign. He followed that up with 3 seasons of 58, 52 and 58. Never reached that peak again.

Are we really going to go against medical evidence that suggests that as players age, they are more likely to be injured and have a decline in production?

(Some) Leaf fans like to pretend that those factors don't exist. They do. And they impact a team significantly.

I lived this with TFC when they signed 31 year old Jermain Defoe and I was writing. The guy was injured when he was signed. Through the season, hamstring issues.

Shock. Horror?

In some circles yes. In most, nope. That's what you get when you buy older athletes. The foundation was built on a shaky premise.

Stamkos on a 7 year deal will be in his 30s through a portion of it. That's when the risk kicks in. If we don't want to focus on the risk years, that's fine. Then you maximize his good years while crossing your fingers on the out years.

That's what an accelerated rebuild is all about.

 

[BayStreetBully]

Why can't Marner and Willie be at Stamkos current level and demand 10mil a yr when they hit UFA?

They can demand it, and they will get it from someone, but I would have to think twice before I am the GM to offer that. I might have to let another team sign him to $10 million.

Though to be fair, maybe I think about signing Marner/Nylander/Stamkos at $10 million. That's a grey line. I would do $9 million. I wouldn't do $11 million. I suppose the cutoff would be somewhere in between, but I'm not sure where. Maybe it's $9.1 million. Don't know. It would require an analysis by the management team.

 

[Babcocks Marner]

Again, not sure why people keep saying "of course you get him".... Make the numbers work.

Signing Stamkos means we are right at the cap, and that's considering at least Grabner is gone. Cap + Grabner = 9.7ish million.

Now fill the 12 holes left by FA (Roster players) ??????????????????????????????????

Sign Kadri?
Sign Reilly?
Riemer?
Percy?
Leivo?
Sparks?
Carrick?
Brennen?
Matthias?
Spaling?
PA?
Holland?
Boyes?
Harrington?
Corrado?
Marincin?
Polak?

You need to sign 10 of them (Saying Marner/Nylander make the team) You got 20 million to spend on that list, sign a FA, bring up Brown etc.

With just Reilly and Kadri, that could be half your money.... It's possible, but incredibly difficult. You can't make the numbers work without considering 2-4 years down the road either, that's cheating

Dumping big contracts is the only option IMO, and that might not be as easy as we think.

 

[garyturner3]

HUH? Stamkos and Tavares are the same age, and Stamkos has had the better season every year other than 2 seasons, one was the year that Stamkos was on a torrid pace but got injured, and the other being last year, but Stammer still had more goals at 43.

Career to date: Stamkos >Tavares.

I wasn't talking about who's had the better career thus far. If you're comparing the two players today and where they look to be headed it's Tavares all day. I'm sure 9/10 dentists would agree on that one as well. Stamkos just hasn't looked like the same player the last couple years.

 

[Gallagbi]

Mats Sundin is a great example here. As a 30-31 year old, he had a 94 point campaign. He followed that up with 3 seasons of 58, 52 and 58. Never reached that peak again.

That peak of PIMS?

 

[Gary Nylund]

They can demand it, and they will get it from someone, but I would have to think twice before I am the GM to offer that. I might have to let another team sign him to $10 million.

Though to be fair, maybe I think about signing Marner/Nylander/Stamkos at $10 million. That's a grey line. I would do $9 million. I wouldn't do $11 million. I suppose the cutoff would be somewhere in between, but I'm not sure where. Maybe it's $9.1 million. Don't know. It would require an analysis by the management team.

Well put. It's pretty obvious IMO that there is no right answer the where exactly one should draw the line. However, it's pretty obvious that cost is a consideration which why all these posts saying we should back up the brinks truck, sign him no matter what the cost is, gotta do it, OMG I can't believe same people are saying they don't want Stamkos etc. just make we wanna go

I think I'm in the same place as you. I would do 9m, I wouldn't do 11m and if I had to draw the line right now, 9.1 just might be my number. But that could change as the season goes on. If he ends up with 65 points (and I don't care how many of them are goals) then I think I go down from 9m.

 

[Daisy Jane]

If Leafs had finished last in 2008 instead of 7th last and actually drafted Stamkos that year, I wonder if Leaf fans who do not want to sign him for $10 mil now would be saying let Stamkos walk or trade him instead of re-signing him?

Hm. you mean - like how a lot of Tampa Bay Fans are saying they wouldn't pay over 9ish million? (smiles sweetly). very easily I gather.

 

[Pookie]

That peak of PIMS?

Columns are hard to read with a beer in hand.

 

[Stand Witness]

Columns are hard to read with a beer in hand.

The beer in your hand might be a sign that it is time to sign off for the night.

 

[yubbers]

The beer in your hand might be a sign that it is time to sign off for the night.

Maybe not having one in hand means it's past your bedtime

 

[Nithoniniel]

It won't be an eight year commitment, because the most we can sign him for is 7. That takes him to 33, which is far from old for a superstar.

Ah. Well of course. My point was that just because we sign him for 7 years, doesn't mean we'll be stuck with him for 7 years.

If Nylander/Marner/Future Prospect X makes him expendable, we could move him 3 years in for a good haul.

 

[Gallagbi]

Columns are hard to read with a beer in hand.

I get it, mistakes happen, but he was a weird example given consistency was what he was known for. I figured all Leafs fans would know he was around a PPG until he left (because that's where he always was).

 

[Stand Witness]

Maybe not having one in hand means it's past your bedtime

or maybe I have to work overnight tonight

thanks for bringing that up

 

[Suntouchable13]

I get it, mistakes happen, but he was a weird example given consistency was what he was known for. I figured all Leafs fans would know he was around a PPG until he left (because that's where he always was).

He was also over a PPG every season for the Leafs after the 04-05 lockout.

 

[thewave]

I would blank check Stammer. 10-11 probably gets it done.

 

[Gallagbi]

He was also over a PPG every season for the Leafs after the 04-05 lockout.

True, it's funny he was my first thought of a player who produced well in to his mid 30's.