Damn, corona chains seem to get locked one after another soon after I have posted those. Among others the first corona thread in main page got locked soon after I forecasted there that in one month, world will look very different and NHL season will most likely be cancelled. I guess in that point such comments were not acceptable. Now I just posted something here adn new thread was opened. This time at least it's not anyway me
Anyway I bit break the rules and copy my message here.
I have anyway followed the case since mide feruary with close eyes and made also some simple simulations on spreading.
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The problem here is..no much lives are saved anyways without huge impact. I mean even bigger. You can't control the virus so that the hospital capacity is more or less enough but that virus reaches enough people.
By "enough" I mean, to get group immunity. As very early precautions were not made no where around the world, the options are:
1a) complete shut down for couple of months to stop epidemic now. But the problem is what happens after stopping restrictions. You have then new chance to try control all chains of infections and hope it won't spread again and then with good possibility is that the vaccine is ready until the late summer/autumn and after vaccination of many people, this is over.
1b) control of chains is not working well enough after complete shutting down and full closure need to e done again at latest in autumn. Even worse, vaccine is ready in 1-2 years and shutting down world needs to be made again and again. Or let it spread then.
2) Just let it spread now, try to keep risk groups as isoleted as possible for few months. Victims will come yes. But with current estimate of infection factor R0 = 2,2 without restrictions and 5 day average latency phase, some about 30 % (might require up to 40-45 %) of infected people might be enough to get group immunity. It bit depends on social networks (how much variation there is how people meet each others). In this case, the total R0 drops below 1, meaning one infected person infects on average less than 1 new person causing that all chains die themselves. This takes several months and is horrible time but after that, it's kind of all over once and for real.
What is the right play, depends strongly on how effective medications will be available nearest weeks and when the vaccine will be ready. But as big financial depression causes also lot of victims and much more young such, it is not possible at all that the tactic with (almost) free spreading will be actually the winning tactic now. It all can be seen and judged only in the future.
Right now we might have some first signes of new spreading in China after ending the strongest controls. There were few days jus tnow in weekend without any local infections so all cases were comng from abroad. Now the number of cases per day doubled from normla level of past weeks. Myabe just coincidence, but it is pretty likely that after returning normal life, this all starts in China again until group immuity/vaccine is reached.