This may be an unsustainable hot streak but actually watching Hughes this season, you can tell it's not just luck, he's unbelievably dynamic and can create plays at any given moment with his skillset. I still think Bedard can peak around 130 but at this point, Jack might just do the same thing. It's not certain Bedard reaches that level, but it's also not certain Jack maintains this level of play. I wanna wait until the end of this season to feel confident about picking one or the other. If Hughes finishes around 130 this season, I could very well pick him. We still haven't seen Bedard take over a game and show just how dynamic he can be so a lot of this is speculation as far as his argument is concerned.
I think we're seeing him at a new level. He was incredible last year before injury at the ASG - on pace for something like 57g 111p before then.
But this year he's taken another step, you could tell in preseason. He's visibly quicker, faster, and stronger. Obviously he's not gonna score 200 points, but 130+ is absolutely in the realm of possibility. He only needs 113p in his last 76gp, which seems shockingly doable. His underlying 5v5 numbers are certainly sustainable. His 5v5 xGF/60 is up from 3.39 last year to 3.72 this year, which is pretty insane.
But his all situations on ice sh% of 18.8% is obviously going to come down, it should probably be nearer to 13-14% based on his ice time splits to date, but his % PP ice time is probably a bit inflated due to the number of PPs drawn. If his actual GF numbers matched his xGF numbers, his expected on ice shooting percentage would be 13.9%. It was ~12% the last few years, but so far this year he's averaged almost an extra minute of PP ice time due to more NJ PP opportunities/game.
The devils have scored 19 GF vs 14 xGF with Jack on the ice in all situations (the entire variance is due to PP puck luck), and Jack's IPP has been 89%. While most star players outperform expected goals, his IPP isn't likely to exceed 80% over the course of the season. So adjusting for puck luck, maybe we should have expected ~15 GF vs 14 xGF, and he only gets a point on ~80% of those.
That would give him ~12 points through his first 6 games. That's still a 164 point pace. Adjusting one last time what should be a higher share of 5v5 ice time going forward, it still suggests that his current level of play is compatible with a ~145-150 point scoring pace.
So while he's definitely on a bit of hot streak from a puck luck perspective, we're also seeing just an incredibly dominant new level of play from him. Even without puck luck he'd be putting up outrageous McDavid like numbers. And this matches the eye test, where honestly it has looked like he's been unlucky at times.
For me, the biggest question around sustainability isn't around his puck luck, but rather, can he sustain this level of offense creation? If he maintains this level (or even close to it), I don't think Bedard can reach him.
