Common Sense Line-up for 2014-2015

[Frk It]

The only way that jurco would be sent down, If Alfredsson does'nt resign and retires. Would be if Babcock goes with another forward. Because once both Tatar and Dekeyser resign Detroit's at it's 23 man limit.

Right, and that forward is named Cleary.

 

[Number1RedWingsFan52]

Right, and that forward is named Cleary.

Maybe Maybe not Cleary wont be guarenteed 3rd line minutes. He could easilly be the 13th or 14th forward we don't know right now that's what training camp is for. Once Tatar resigns we have 14 Forwards under contract so unless Alfredsson resigns or Holland decides to sign another forward like Penner or Setoguchi I think that Jurco will be up.

 

[Frk It]

Thought this was worth a share:

Are Advanced Stats Smarter Than Mike Babcock?

 

[Henkka]

Thought this was worth a share:

Are Advanced Stats Smarter Than Mike Babcock?

Excellent article. Kind of sums the different data but same positives than that PDO-article at Winging it in Motown.

So with Alfie:

Zeta - Dats - AKader
Mule - Weiss - Alfie
Tatar - Sheahan - Nyquist
Miller - Helm - Glendening
(Cleary, Andersson)

and without Alfie:

Zeta - Dats - AKader
Mule - Weiss - Nyquist
Tatar - Sheahan - Jurco
Miller - Helm - Glendening
(Cleary, Andersson)

Best corsi combinations happened pretty much with those Babcock combinations (everybody hates). So, is Babcock an idiot or, would he just know what the best lines are with their own secret stats our pro scouts doing all the time they are just not talking about? It's like our commercial secret. Babcock can say whatever he wants to the media, but I just still refuse to believe that **** Red Wings would not have own "advanced" statistics. They have had them for decades, I guarantee it. They just aren't using same as Corsi which is hyped nowadays, because it's now tool get values straight from the data NhL provides. Some different system for scoring chance data, but you got same results from there on a long run.

 

[Frk It]

Excellent article. Kind of sums the different data but same positives than that PDO-article at Winging it in Motown.

So with Alfie:

Zeta - Dats - AKader
Mule - Weiss - Alfie
Tatar - Sheahan - Nyquist
Miller - Helm - Glendening
(Cleary, Andersson)

and without Alfie:

Zeta - Dats - AKader
Mule - Weiss - Nyquist
Tatar - Sheahan - Jurco
Miller - Helm - Glendening
(Cleary, Andersson)

Best corsi combinations happened pretty much with those Babcock combinations (everybody hates) , so I think they know what the best lines are with their own secret stats our pro scouts doing all the time they are just not talking about. It's like our commercial secret. Babcock can say whatever he wants to the media, but I just still refuse to believe that **** Red Wings would not have own "advanced" statistics. They have had them for decades, I guarantee it. They just aren't using same as Corsi which is hyped nowadays, because it's now tool get values straight from the data NhL provides. Some different system for scoring chance data, but you got same results from there on a long run.

If they know what the best lines are with the secret stats, then why did they play Cleary for 50+ games who killed any line he was on?

 

[Frk It]

If Alfredsson retires, they need to give Mantha a chance for the first 8 games. We know Abdelkader will do a good job possession-wise with the twins, but will convert chances at an abysmal rate.

Z-Datsyuk-Mantha
Franzen-Weiss-Nyquist
Tatar-Sheahan-Jurco
Miller-Helm-Abdelkader

Try that for the first 8 games, if it doesn't work then re-assess. Mantha could be exactly what we've been missing. Abdelkader has been given the chance enough times, and not been able to keep it, to the point of where we know he should be on line 3 or 4.

 

[Henkka]

If they know what the best lines are with the secret stats, then why did they play Cleary for 50+ games who killed any line he was on?

Looks like Cleary worked with Helm and Alfie.

Also, maybe there was extra belief to get him back on game shape (at the start of the season, when "the tie goes to the veteran") but those knees just never got working. Then he was benched for the rest of the season, when roster limits disappeared. I remember, at many times we all were waiting for that Cleary benching, but others did get injured short-term in front of him and Cleary stayed on the roster because we couldn't promote any extra fresh legs because of those roster limits. Until there was enough guys on LTIR, the benching did happen. That Sammy contract just was just total ****edup for last seasons cap and limits.

 

[The White Death]

Thought this was worth a share:

Are Advanced Stats Smarter Than Mike Babcock?

Can somebody please email this to Mike Babock to make sure Cleary never sees that bonus...

 

[Crymson]

Nyquist was a 40-50 pt player last year, and started the year in GR, and they cited his ability to be sent down without passing through waivers as the reason. As stupid as that was.

It was mostly a symptom of Holland being unwilling, as usual, to make a tough decision. He could have waived Tootoo, or Emmerton, or Eaves, or traded someone, but those would have been tough decisions. Nyquist had AHL eligibility remaining, and sending him down was the easy route. So Holland took it.

Gentleman's agreement.

Seriously, with injuries I don't see Cleary not getting 10 games.

If they wanted him to get $2.5m, they'd have given him $2.5m in base salary. Giving him $1m of that in bonuses and playing him ten games so that he can get it would make not an inch of sense, not that I think Holland is capable of common sense where Cleary is concerned.

I'm puzzled as to why they gave him the bonus option to begin with....Or a contract.

It's perhaps a hedge against him being terrible again. They gave him this contract as the result of an idiotic promise, and they're no doubt aware that he could be as bad as he was last season.

Think Kindl and Lashoff, but as a forward, but worse. Cleary's been a terrible hockey player for 2 years now. A possession black hole.

His possession statistics were decent in 2013, though this was chiefly a function of whom he was playing with. He was the team's undisputed possession ******** last season, needless to say. Only Glendening and Weiss were worse, but Glendening played a proper grinding role and brought far more to the team than Cleary did, and Weiss had a sports hernia. Worse, Cleary constantly turned over the puck and could neither pass nor shoot nor participate in the cycle.

Can somebody please email this to Mike Babock to make sure Cleary never sees that bonus...

Reading that only confirmed to me what I already knew about Cleary's performance last season, but it was still humorous to see him at the bottom of the list for almost every single line combination he was on. Even the fact that he got decent possession statistics with Helm and Alfredsson is irrelevant, as one is the fastest player on the team and excellent defensively, and the other is a future hall-of-famer who loves to shoot and is likewise excellent defensively. This no doubt helped skew the statistics in the proper direction, but fortunately even Babcock knew that the two of them were absolutely wasted on Cleary.

Anyhow, yes, advanced statistics are smarter than Mike Babcock. Otherwise he'd have at least kept the proper lines to end the season and into the playoffs. But nooooo.

So yeah, Babcock played the team's worst possession player (and worst player overall) 14+ minutes per night for 50+ games, and then, four games before the playoffs, broke up lines that had excellent production and possession statistics. And then the team didn't score in the playoffs. Not surprising, and neither was the fact that he didn't return to his old lines when it was clear that they weren't working. He's a brilliant coach, but often inexplicably dumb.

 

[SantosHalper]

Zetterberg-Datsyuk-Abdelkader
Franzen-Weiss-Nyquist
Tatar-Sheahan-Jurco
Miller-Helm-Glendening
Cleary, Andersson

or with Alfie

Zetterberg-Datsyuk-Jurco
Franzen-Weiss-Alfredsson
Tatar-Sheahan-Nyquist
Miller-Helm-Abdelkader
Cleary, Andersson, Glendening

Kronwall-Ericsson
DeKeyser-Smith
Quincey-Kindl
Lashoff

Howard-Gustavsson

 

[Mister Ed]

In case you missed it, Mikael Samuelsson signed in Sweden. He won't be in the lineup, yay! :

Chris Johnston ‏@reporterchris
Mikael Samuelsson is returning home to Sweden this season after signing with Djurgarden. Veteran winger played 699 NHL games.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Zetterberg-Datsyuk-Abdelkader
Franzen-Weiss-Nyquist
Tatar-Sheahan-Jurco
Miller-Helm-Glendening
Cleary, Andersson

or with Alfie

Zetterberg-Datsyuk-Jurco
Franzen-Weiss-Alfredsson
Tatar-Sheahan-Nyquist
Miller-Helm-Abdelkader
Cleary, Andersson, Glendening

Kronwall-Ericsson
DeKeyser-Smith
Quincey-Kindl
Lashoff

Howard-Gustavsson

2nd roster has too many players. We would need to trade/waive someone or send Jurco to GR if we sign Alfredsson.

 

[Frk It]

I really hope common sense is factored into the lineup for this year, seeing as how it wasn't for large parts of last year.

-Smith on the PP
-Cleary in the press box
-Abdelkader on line 3 or 4, only top 6 if injuries hit.
-no Quincey-Smith pairing... Ever.
-play the best players. If that means you keep up someone with waiver exemption, do it. If that means you have to hurt someone's feelings (Cleary), do it. If that means you have to bench a veteran making much more money (Kindl/Quincey), in favor of a kid, do it. Play the best players. If that's the mantra they want to preach, let's see that take into effect this year.

 

[TheOtherOne]

In case you missed it, Mikael Samuelsson signed in Sweden. He won't be in the lineup, yay! :

Brb going to party like it's 1999

 

[Number1RedWingsFan52]

In case you missed it, Mikael Samuelsson signed in Sweden. He won't be in the lineup, yay! :

Wow really I was for sure thinking that Samuelsson would be another Holland signing. Makes me feel better.

 

[Pavels Dog]

-Abdelkader on line 3 or 4, only top 6 if injuries hit.

I dunno, I wouldn't mind seeing the Abdelkader-Z-Nyquist line again. Nor do I think Z-Dats-Abby is a terrible line.

Agree on the other points. And I think we saw them "play the best players" in the 2nd half of the season so I think it will continue. Cleary won't get 50 games to 'get going', and Kindl won't get many games before Ouellet or someone else takes his job.

 

[Frk It]

And I think we saw them "play the best players" in the 2nd half of the season so I think it will continue. Cleary won't get 50 games to 'get going', and Kindl won't get many games before Ouellet or someone else takes his job.

I am hoping that is what happens as well.

Though I think a lot of this was pushed to happening last year due to the injuries.

To see them make the same type of moves without being pushed by injuries would be very encouraging, and nice to see. Needless to say, I will need to see that happen for me to buy in.

 

[silkyjohnson50]

Excellent article. Kind of sums the different data but same positives than that PDO-article at Winging it in Motown.

So with Alfie:

Zeta - Dats - AKader
Mule - Weiss - Alfie
Tatar - Sheahan - Nyquist
Miller - Helm - Glendening
(Cleary, Andersson)

and without Alfie:

Zeta - Dats - AKader
Mule - Weiss - Nyquist
Tatar - Sheahan - Jurco
Miller - Helm - Glendening
(Cleary, Andersson)

Best corsi combinations happened pretty much with those Babcock combinations (everybody hates). So, is Babcock an idiot or, would he just know what the best lines are with their own secret stats our pro scouts doing all the time they are just not talking about? It's like our commercial secret. Babcock can say whatever he wants to the media, but I just still refuse to believe that **** Red Wings would not have own "advanced" statistics. They have had them for decades, I guarantee it. They just aren't using same as Corsi which is hyped nowadays, because it's now tool get values straight from the data NhL provides. Some different system for scoring chance data, but you got same results from there on a long run.

According to the article:

Zetterberg-Datsyuk-Alfredsson had a better CorsiFor% than Zetterberg-Datsyuk-Abdelkader

Jurco-Sheahan-Tatar had a better CorsiFor% than Nyquist-Sheahan-Tatar

Franzen-Legwand-Nyquist had a better CorsiFor% than Franzen-Weiss-Alfredsson

And

Miller-Helm-Glendening had a really good CorsiFor% as well.

All 4 of those line were among the top 10 in CorsiFor% throughout the season and has better CorsiFor% than the Zetterberg-Datsyuk-Abdelkader line.

His "projected lines" is done poorly.

 

[Actual Thought*]

I can't think of any reason why Mantha shouldn't be on the team to at least start the season. His confidence is sky high, and if he can't hack it early, then send him down with the right message to learn what to work on to get better. I don't think we're losing a thing with giving quite possibly the best pure sniper in our organization a shot.

I am excited about this kid but he is a 1st line type of player. He isn't going to be brought up to play 7 minutes a game. Shouldn't he at least go through stretches and warm ups at an NHL training camp before we put him on our top line? There is a big difference between QMJHL and the NHL.

 

[Henkka]

According to the article:

Zetterberg-Datsyuk-Alfredsson had a better CorsiFor% than Zetterberg-Datsyuk-Abdelkader

Jurco-Sheahan-Tatar had a better CorsiFor% than Nyquist-Sheahan-Tatar

Franzen-Legwand-Nyquist had a better CorsiFor% than Franzen-Weiss-Alfredsson

And

Miller-Helm-Glendening had a really good CorsiFor% as well.

All 4 of those line were among the top 10 in CorsiFor% throughout the season and has better CorsiFor% than the Zetterberg-Datsyuk-Abdelkader line.

His "projected lines" is done poorly.

I'll take line with a screener any day with a Corsi For attempt than a line without. There's a big difference in shooting percentage (with a screener) will a Corsi attempt result a goal or won't.

If Alfredsson is with Dats and Zeta, yeah, they probably will get a lot more shots (Corsi attempts For), which are easy to see for a goalie without a screen. And they get less Corsi attempts For with Abdelkader, but because of the screen play Gator brings on the line, they have a higher percentage for those Corsi attempts to go in, because goalie is screened and that will result more goals on the long run.

That has been our bread and butter for years, and that's how Mike Babcock sees things.

 

[silkyjohnson50]

I'll take line with a screener any day with a Corsi For attempt than a line without. There's a big difference in shooting percentage (with a screener) will a Corsi attempt result a goal or won't.

If Alfredsson is with Dats and Zeta, yeah, they probably will get a lot more shots (Corsi attempts For), which are easy to see for a goalie without a screen. And they get less Corsi attempts For with Abdelkader, but because of the screen play Gator brings on the line, they have a higher percentage for those Corsi attempts to go in, because goalie is screened and that will result more goals on the long run.

That has been our bread and butter for years, and that's how Mike Babcock sees things.

And yet Zetterberg-Datsyuk-Alfredsson scored more goals than Zetterberg-Datsyuk-Abdelkader despite the fact that they spent less time together.

If all things were equal and you wanted to a screener, sure. But they're not equal. As I stated, every single line I posted had a better Corsi than the supposed line with a screener.

Franzen-Weiss-Alfredsson would be a nightmare again because they're no speed or dominant puck carrier. With Datsyuk, Z, Nyquist, and Tatar (with Helm manning line 4), Babcock has the pieces to create 3 lines that have quick, puck carriers that drive possession...

Possession. What point is it to focus on a screener when you're going to have the puck less?

You're overrating screening. Even look at one of the greatest net front presences ever in Holmstrom. What made him so successful with 13 and 40 wasn't that he could screen. What made him so successful was that he was great at winning puck battles along the boards and quickly finding 13 or 40 which led to extended ozone possession.

You remind of HJS.

 

[Winger98]

I'm not sure how fair it is to judge any line with Weiss on it considering he was apparently injured from the start and was trying to play through it. Guy's a huge wild card for us this year.

 

[Number1RedWingsFan52]

I'm not sure how fair it is to judge any line with Weiss on it considering he was apparently injured from the start and was trying to play through it. Guy's a huge wild card for us this year.

Good point, Weiss will definitely be the wild card for us this season.

 

[Probie]

Excellent article. Kind of sums the different data but same positives than that PDO-article at Winging it in Motown.

So with Alfie:

Zeta - Dats - AKader
Mule - Weiss - Alfie
Tatar - Sheahan - Nyquist
Miller - Helm - Glendening
(Cleary, Andersson)

and without Alfie:

Zeta - Dats - AKader
Mule - Weiss - Nyquist
Tatar - Sheahan - Jurco
Miller - Helm - Glendening
(Cleary, Andersson)

Best corsi combinations happened pretty much with those Babcock combinations (everybody hates). So, is Babcock an idiot or, would he just know what the best lines are with their own secret stats our pro scouts doing all the time they are just not talking about? It's like our commercial secret. Babcock can say whatever he wants to the media, but I just still refuse to believe that **** Red Wings would not have own "advanced" statistics. They have had them for decades, I guarantee it. They just aren't using same as Corsi which is hyped nowadays, because it's now tool get values straight from the data NhL provides. Some different system for scoring chance data, but you got same results from there on a long run.

I like that second set of lines better then the first, imagine how great our forward lines would look if we had a big sized goal scorer In abs spot on line one....we'd have three great lines....

 

[Henkka]

imagine how great our forward lines would look if we had a big sized goal scorer In abs spot on line one....we'd have three great lines....

Don't have to wait long for... Mantha.