Speculation: Claude Giroux and the Colorado Avalanche

[FlyguyOX]

G wants to play for a contender close to home. There are a helluva lot of teams closer than Colorado. The NMC isn't as restricting as you think.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

If it happens it probably ends up being a 1st + another piece. Where the disagreement in value will come right now between the two sides is what that + ends up being.

Personally, I dont think it'll be very much. Since Giroux holds all the cards in this situation and can basically chose where he wants to go and based on Fletcher's comments today they're basically going to let Giroux do the deciding as well.

Retention should also be dirt cheap on a Giroux deal. Since he's only owed $4M in real money this year and by the deadline more then $3M of that should be paid. So 50% retention will only cost Philly $500k and another 50% retention from a team like Seattle or Buffalo would only be $250k in real money.



I think you end up seeing something like:


- Giroux(@2.1M to Colorado)
- 2023 1st + Tyson Jost to Philly
- 2022 5th to Buffalo

 

[John Johnson]

Some people need to realize that you need to pay to get good players, especially at a retained cap hit. Beggars can't be choosers.

 

[Muffin]

Some people need to realize that you need to pay to get good players, especially at a retained cap hit. Beggars can't be choosers.

Not sure who the beggar is, the first place team in the league who’s also the highest scoring team in the league or the team with the pending UFA with a NMC?

Giroux is a luxury for Colorado, it’s not worth it if it means mortgaging the future.

 

[nbwingsfan]

For an upcoming UFA? No.

Why not? You’ve really gotta cash in before Mackinnon starts making ~$6M more on the cap and a 1st and/or top prospects are the going rates for top UFA to be

 

[nbwingsfan]

Not sure who the beggar is, the first place team in the league who’s also the highest scoring team in the league or the team with the pending UFA with a NMC?

Giroux is a luxury for Colorado, it’s not worth it if it makes mortgaging the future.

You guys have been favourites for a couple years now and keep collapsing in the second round. This is a good year to add actual substance to the team while Mack is on such an amazing contract and Kadri playing out of his mind

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Some people need to realize that you need to pay to get good players, especially at a retained cap hit. Beggars can't be choosers.

Not when the retained cap hit is less then league minimum in terms of actual salary



Also LOL at the Nucks fans coming into this thread attacking Avs fans. Damn you guys continue to be a touchy bunch over Miller.

 

[wankstifier]

Any chance Erik Johnson doesn’t have the Flyers on his no-trade list?

Shedding that salary would allow a trade for Giroux. Would also cost a bit more in assets for the Avalanche

 

[Cousin Eddie]

G wants to play for a contender close to home. There are a helluva lot of teams closer than Colorado. The NMC isn't as restricting as you think.

Where did you hear this?

 

[Muffin]

You guys have been favourites for a couple years now and keep collapsing in the second round. This is a good year to add actual substance to the team while Mack is on such an amazing contract and Kadri playing out of his mind

They should be adding a top 4 defenseman instead with injuries to Byram and Murray. Colorado doesn’t have problem scoring goals.

 

[The Burdened]

I want G to stay

 

[PAZ]

You guys have been favourites for a couple years now and keep collapsing in the second round. This is a good year to add actual substance to the team while Mack is on such an amazing contract and Kadri playing out of his mind

Last season was the first year the Avs were considered cup favorites.

 

[Muffin]

Any chance Erik Johnson doesn’t have the Flyers on his no-trade list?

Shedding that salary would allow a trade for Giroux. Would also cost a bit more in assets for the Avalanche

Colorado is in no position to trade Johnson with injures to Byram and Murray, he’s playing top 4 minutes right now and having a great season.

 

[wankstifier]

Colorado is in no position to trade Johnson with injures to Byram and Murray, he’s playing top 4 minutes right now and having a great season.

Gotcha. Figured the D depth might be an issue.

Don’t really see any other way to make a Giroux trade work without involving a third team.

 

[nbwingsfan]

Last season was the first year the Avs were considered cup favorites.

Many many people expected them to go to the finals during the Covid Cup.

Again when you have a guy who’s normally a meh 2nd liner playing like a top 10 forward and a top 3 player making ~$6-7M less than he should you’ve got to take advantage

I’m not even saying Giroux is the guy to go for, was just responding to the poster saying Colorado won’t trade their 1st or B prospects for UFAs to be

 

[MaKarter]

If this trade happens its because it is what Giroux wants. The Flyers believe he has earned the right to choose where he finishes this year. If he wants to go to Colorado it shouldn't be difficult to make it work for everyone.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Gotcha. Figured the D depth might be an issue.

Don’t really see any other way to make a Giroux trade work without involving a third team.

Then we should just involve a 3rd team. It wont cost us very much. At most a 3rd round pick and more likely a 4th.


Just look at the Foligno trade last year, the Savard trade last year, the Janmark trade last year. The Lehner trade a couple years ago.


The going rate to involve a 3rd team and retain ~1-1.5M in real money is a 4th round pick.

 

[Richard88]

They should be adding a top 4 defenseman instead with injuries to Byram and Murray. Colorado doesn’t have problem scoring goals.

Avs can do both, especially if Giroux uses his NMC leverage to keep the price low.

 

[wankstifier]

Then we should just involve a 3rd team. It wont cost us very much. At most a 3rd round pick and more likely a 4th.


Just look at the Foligno trade last year, the Savard trade last year, the Janmark trade last year. The Lehner trade a couple years ago.


The going rate to involve a 3rd team and retain ~1-1.5M in real money is a 4th round pick.

Who’s the ~$2MM cap dump, then?

 

[eramosat]

G wants to play for a contender close to home. There are a helluva lot of teams closer than Colorado. The NMC isn't as restricting as you think.

Correct thinking.

None of us know what Giroux is even thinking, and whether or not he even wants a Philly exit before this year's deadline, or even for his next contract. But if he does think the end is nigh with Philly, there are plenty of teams he can aim for, with either this year's Cup, or future years' Cups, in mind.

And if his decision is "I'm done, please trade me...", then most every contender would be looking to fit him in, not just Co...right? Sakic is simply first in explicitly teasing interest. And who knows which team Giroux would prefer?

 

[John Johnson]

Not when the retained cap hit is less then league minimum in terms of actual salary


Also LOL at the Nucks fans coming into this thread attacking Avs fans. Damn you guys continue to be a touchy bunch over Miller.

I'm not attacking anyone, there are just some people, Avs fan or not, who don't want to give up anything worthwhile for a good player. Also talk about touchy, every post I see of yours is some whiny crybaby ass post. Not to mention some Avs fans are **still** holding grudges over the Hughes vs Makar debates. Time to grow up.

 

[wankstifier]

I'm not attacking anyone, there are just some people, Avs fan or not, who don't want to give up anything worthwhile for a good player. Also talk about touchy, every post I see of yours is some whiny crybaby ass post. Not to mention some Avs fans are **still** holding grudges over the Hughes vs Makar debates. Time to grow up.

To be fair, Fletcher doesn't inspire confidence and we don't know how many teams Giroux would be willing to waive his NMC for. The trade could end up being relatively underwhelming for a player of Giroux's caliber.

 

[PAZ]

Many many people expected them to go to the finals during the Covid Cup.

Again when you have a guy who’s normally a meh 2nd liner playing like a top 10 forward and a top 3 player making ~$6-7M less than he should you’ve got to take advantage

I’m not even saying Giroux is the guy to go for, was just responding to the poster saying Colorado won’t trade their 1st or B prospects for UFAs to be

Covid Cup people had decent expectations, but they weren't cup favorites. The Avs also had horrible luck - it wouldn't have mattered what moves were made since both our #1G + #2G got injured during the playoffs, that's not a hole any team can climb out of.

The other poster is also probably referencing to how Sakic operates - he's never made a big splash at the TDL. It's always in the offseason and the TDL is to shore up depth. Plenty of Avs' fans are fine giving up Helleson/Barron/1st/etc. for a rental, but given Sakic's history there's a healthy level of apprehension.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

Many many people expected them to go to the finals during the Covid Cup.

Again when you have a guy who’s normally a meh 2nd liner playing like a top 10 forward and a top 3 player making ~$6-7M less than he should you’ve got to take advantage

I’m not even saying Giroux is the guy to go for, was just responding to the poster saying Colorado won’t trade their 1st or B prospects for UFAs to be

Yes, they've been top 3 in the preseason odds for the last two years. And both years they won their first round series pretty easily. But, they ended up with Hutchinson in net for the last 3 games against Dallas in 2019-20 (and still managed to get to OT in game 7), and then ran into the team with the 2nd best preseason odds (Vegas) in the 2nd round after Kadri was made into an example for his mistimed hit on Faulk. Not really "collapsing" as much as "things went wrong that we can't really plan for".

I also think there's a fine line between taking advantage, and putting all your eggs in one basket. The reality is that no matter what we do, it's still going to be extremely difficult to win the Cup, and keeping our window open for longer is going to have a much greater impact on our chances to win. So, what's the point in overpaying for something that would be a luxury, rather than keeping pieces that might become something we will actually need in the near future?

 

[Ararana]

Marek & Friedman: Blank Cheque in Philly - Sportsnet.ca

According to Friedman, Colorado players have been reaching out to Giroux and telling him they want him to come to Colorado. Wouldn't shock me if NAK was one of the ones telling him how great the Colorado locker room is.

I'm not quite sure if this is tampering or not. I know GMs can't reach out to players, no idea if players can reach out to other players (though I'm sure it happens all the damn time).

Ultimately Giroux will get to pick where he wants to go. But I'm having a hard time thinking of a better fit than Colorado, both for him and for the Avs.

Some trade prices I'd be good with (assuming G is retained at 50%)
2023 1st + Helleson (reunite York and Helleson)
2022 2nd + Barron/Olausson

Newhook and Byram are obviously non starters.