Prospect Info: Chase Stillman (#29 overall)

[BurntToast]

The end of the 1st round busts a lot more than people realize. If he becomes a serviceable bottom 6, it’s still a good pick.

People act like every 4th rounder is a for sure bottom 6 player and the late first round has guaranteed super stars (20+).

(Worse case we trade him to Tampa for 3 first round picks)

 

[Triumph]

The end of the 1st round busts a lot more than people realize. If he become a serviceable bottom 6, it’s still a good pick.

People act like every 4th rounder is a for sure bottom 6 player and the late first round has guaranteed super stars (20+).

(Worse case we trade him to Tampa for 3 first round picks)

The Devils drafted in the back end of the 1st round for the better part of 20 years, why would I be under any delusion that the back end of the 1st round is filled with stars? It's not and I know that.

What I also know is that Chase Stillman has likely put up the worst results of any forward drafted in the 1st round in some time. Let's go back to 2012, that'll give us 9 years*, and look at 1st round picks taken 20th or later and look at their D+2s, counting only players who played in junior in their D+2:

Gaunce: 79 GP, 36 G, 52 A, 98 P
Samuelsson: 86 GP, 43 G, 75 A, 118 P
Gauthier: 57 GP, 18 G, 30 A, 48 P
Klimchuk: 73 GP, 37 G, 56 A, 93 P
Dickinson: 65 GP, 31 G, 48 A, 79 P
Bleakley: 55 GP, 13 G, 33 A, 46 P
Ho Sang: 83 GP, 25 G, 83 A, 108 P
Quenneville: 78 GP, 47 G, 53 A, 110 P
Merkley: 80 GP, 29 G, 53 A, 92 P
Rubtsov: 49 GP, 20 G, 33 A, 53 P
Jones: 40 GP, 22 G, 6 A, 28 P
Howden: 63 GP, 31 G, 59 A, 90 P
Steel: 61 GP, 34 G, 60 A, 94 P
Frost: 69 GP, 44 G, 83 A, 127 P
Veleno: **
Lapierre: 48 GP, 25 G, 37 A, 62 P
Foerster: 19 GP, 7 G, 8 A, 15 P
Neighbours: 49 GP, 20 G, 42 A, 62 P
Greig: 45 GP, 28 G, 38 A, 66 P
Bourque: 47 GP, 29 G, 64 A, 93 P
Wiesblatt: 46 GP, 10 G, 32 A, 42 P
L'Heureux: 53 GP, 32 G, 36 A, 68 P
Stillman: 80 GP, 23 G, 38 A, 61 P
Dean: 63 GP, 43 G, 53 A, 93 P

In bold are the two players who put up worse goals per game averages than Stillman. I was going to use italics for players with worse points per game percentages but there aren't any. Only 6 players on this list managed less than a point per game.

Notice also that almost nobody on this list is a consistent top 9 forward in the NHL and most have had time to establish themselves. Frost is the only one so far. These are players with almost unilaterally better results than Stillman, of the first 10 players on the list, Dickinson is the only one who played a full season in the NHL in 2022-23; Jones, Howden, and Neighbours were 4th liners, Steel was a 3rd liner, and Frost was a 2nd/3rd liner.

I recognize that COVID made it difficult to draft in 2021. I don't really care about where a player is drafted once he's picked. People are only relatively high on Stillman because he was taken in the 1st round, which I imagine in a normal year, he absolutely would not have been. These are results much more consistent with players taken in the 3rd and 4th rounds.

* - it was going to give us 10 years but I didn't use results from players drafted in 2019 because their D+2 fell during the COVID year.

** - Removed Veleno's numbers because I erroneously thought his final season in junior was his D+2 but because he had played 4 seasons of junior hockey already he was able to play in the AHL in his D+2 despite being too young.

 

[Devs3cups]

Yeah, the comparables for Stillman don’t give a whole lot of hope, that’s for sure. But in my limited viewings I’ve liked what I’ve seen physically. He’s a pretty quick guy with a good motor and a decent shot. I have hopes for him as a bottom of the lineup player, but I’m not holding my breath. He seems to have the attributes to do it, but I’m pretty excited to see him in Utica next year.

 

[TrufleShufle]

If he was turning into a star, we would be fighting about how to fit him on the team. If he turns out to be somewhat useful, great.

If not, who cares, can't win them all and we have one of, if not the best, built for the future foundations in the league with more to come.

 

[OmNomNom]

if he turns into a bottom 6er, that's a win for me. power forwards are weird

 

[Triumph]

if he turns into a bottom 6er, that's a win for me. power forwards are weird

He is not going to turn into a 'bottom 6er'; it is extremely unlikely at this point. What he could be is a 4th liner, maybe, but that's pretty unlikely too.

 

[My3Sons]

He is not going to turn into a 'bottom 6er'; it is extremely unlikely at this point. What he could be is a 4th liner, maybe, but that's pretty unlikely too.

Maybe he won't but he'll get his chance. At this point all you can do is learn from the past and hope for the best. They hit on the Mukhamadullin pick so this is the universe's way of balancing it out.

 

[BurntToast]

Umm isn’t his D+2 really his D+1. He missed most of his draft year. It will be interesting to see him play in the AHL.

 

[Wierzbowski426]

How is it this big a deal? He was a very late 1st rounder, and those dont pan out all the time.

Was not a good pick in hindsight but bfd, lets hope he finds a way to contribute something/anything and move on.

At least we didnt draft Vitaly Kravtsov at 9 or whatever it was. Or lias andersson at 6.

 

[TBF1972]

You’re not my wife or daughter, don’t tell me what to do

you forgot to list your bladder

 

[Devs3cups]

Umm isn’t his D+2 really his D+1. He missed most of his draft year. It will be interesting to see him play in the AHL.

Pretty sure his D+1 is the season after he was drafted, unless I’ve been using it wrong this whole time. He played 59 games with the Wolves/Petes, same amount as this season (his D+2).

 

[Triumph]

How is it this big a deal? He was a very late 1st rounder, and those dont pan out all the time.

Was not a good pick in hindsight but bfd, lets hope he finds a way to contribute something/anything and move on.

At least we didnt draft Vitaly Kravtsov at 9 or whatever it was. Or lias andersson at 6.

I think we can all agree with this in general, but I was just seeing way too much 'bottom 6, Chase Stillman will become a bottom 6 forward', and I wanted to illustrate just how unlikely that is at this point - that the NHL is a really difficult league to make even with the skills Stillman possesses. Maybe part of his relatively poor results is Peterborough, maybe it's some bad luck, but based on the numbers I'm not sure Stillman is going to be ready for the AHL next season. I hope he is.

 

[BurntToast]

Pretty sure his D+1 is the season after he was drafted, unless I’ve been using it wrong this whole time. He played 59 games with the Wolves/Petes, same amount as this season (his D+2).

You are right but with his draft year mostly wiped out, I’m curious to see if his development is delayed.

 

[Hockey Sports Fan]

The Devils drafted in the back end of the 1st round for the better part of 20 years, why would I be under any delusion that the back end of the 1st round is filled with stars? It's not and I know that.

What I also know is that Chase Stillman has likely put up the worst results of any forward drafted in the 1st round in some time. Let's go back to 2012, that'll give us 9 years*, and look at 1st round picks taken 20th or later and look at their D+2s, counting only players who played in junior in their D+2:

Gaunce: 79 GP, 36 G, 52 A, 98 P
Samuelsson: 86 GP, 43 G, 75 A, 118 P
Gauthier: 57 GP, 18 G, 30 A, 48 P
Klimchuk: 73 GP, 37 G, 56 A, 93 P
Dickinson: 65 GP, 31 G, 48 A, 79 P
Bleakley: 55 GP, 13 G, 33 A, 46 P
Ho Sang: 83 GP, 25 G, 83 A, 108 P
Quenneville: 78 GP, 47 G, 53 A, 110 P
Merkley: 80 GP, 29 G, 53 A, 92 P
Rubtsov: 49 GP, 20 G, 33 A, 53 P
Jones: 40 GP, 22 G, 6 A, 28 P
Howden: 63 GP, 31 G, 59 A, 90 P
Steel: 61 GP, 34 G, 60 A, 94 P
Frost: 69 GP, 44 G, 83 A, 127 P
Veleno: **
Lapierre: 48 GP, 25 G, 37 A, 62 P
Foerster: 19 GP, 7 G, 8 A, 15 P
Neighbours: 49 GP, 20 G, 42 A, 62 P
Greig: 45 GP, 28 G, 38 A, 66 P
Bourque: 47 GP, 29 G, 64 A, 93 P
Wiesblatt: 46 GP, 10 G, 32 A, 42 P
L'Heureux: 53 GP, 32 G, 36 A, 68 P
Stillman: 80 GP, 23 G, 38 A, 61 P
Dean: 63 GP, 43 G, 53 A, 93 P

In bold are the two players who put up worse goals per game averages than Stillman. I was going to use italics for players with worse points per game percentages but there aren't any. Only 6 players on this list managed less than a point per game.

Notice also that almost nobody on this list is a consistent top 9 forward in the NHL and most have had time to establish themselves. Frost is the only one so far. These are players with almost unilaterally better results than Stillman, of the first 10 players on the list, Dickinson is the only one who played a full season in the NHL in 2022-23; Jones, Howden, and Neighbours were 4th liners, Steel was a 3rd liner, and Frost was a 2nd/3rd liner.

I recognize that COVID made it difficult to draft in 2021. I don't really care about where a player is drafted once he's picked. People are only relatively high on Stillman because he was taken in the 1st round, which I imagine in a normal year, he absolutely would not have been. These are results much more consistent with players taken in the 3rd and 4th rounds.

* - it was going to give us 10 years but I didn't use results from players drafted in 2019 because their D+2 fell during the COVID year.

** - Removed Veleno's numbers because I erroneously thought his final season in junior was his D+2 but because he had played 4 seasons of junior hockey already he was able to play in the AHL in his D+2 despite being too young.

i’m sure you’re aware of this but there’s some selection bias (reverse survivor bias?) here, because anyone who hasn’t moved out of the CHL by their D+2 year is already less likely to make the NHL (which is the point of the post anyway).

But it sure is a good illustration of how unlikely it is that Stillman gets more than a couple cups of coffee. I think his draft slot and the fact that he projects as a fourth liner basically guarantees he plays NHL games. But if he ever scores an NHL goal I’ll venmo everyone that likes this post a dollar.

 

[MWagg72]

i’m sure you’re aware of this but there’s some selection bias (reverse survivor bias?) here, because anyone who hasn’t moved out of the CHL by their D+2 year is already less likely to make the NHL (which is the point of the post anyway).

But it sure is a good illustration of how unlikely it is that Stillman gets more than a couple cups of coffee. I think his draft slot and the fact that he projects as a fourth liner basically guarantees he plays NHL games. But if he ever scores an NHL goal I’ll venmo everyone that likes this post a dollar.

In for my dollar

 

[Oneiro]

Totally irrational view on the matter but I just loathe that this was the result of trading two absolute warriors.

 

[Triumph]

i’m sure you’re aware of this but there’s some selection bias (reverse survivor bias?) here, because anyone who hasn’t moved out of the CHL by their D+2 year is already less likely to make the NHL (which is the point of the post anyway).

But it sure is a good illustration of how unlikely it is that Stillman gets more than a couple cups of coffee. I think his draft slot and the fact that he projects as a fourth liner basically guarantees he plays NHL games. But if he ever scores an NHL goal I’ll venmo everyone that likes this post a dollar.

Naturally, and I just now realized that I never specified that this is OHL results only.

I don't think his draft slot guarantees him NHL games. His results have been that poor and the rest of the organization is relatively strong. You look at that list and there are a few guys who never really played in the NHL - Klimchuk got 1 game, Samuelsson got 3, Bleakley got 0, and Rubtsov got 4. I don't know if Stillman never scoring an NHL goal is within a Venmo everyone a dollar range, I think it's worse than even money but better than 25% (and I'd make sure I specified regular season or playoffs, not pre-season).

 

[Hockey Sports Fan]

Totally irrational view on the matter but I just loathe that this was the result of trading two absolute warriors.

i would call it at least a little bit rational. Why not shoot for the fences with a bonus first rounder instead of using it on a guy whose ceiling at the time of the draft was a 3rd line checking winger?

 

[Oneiro]

i would call it at least a little bit rational. Why not shoot for the fences with a bonus first rounder instead of using it on a guy whose ceiling at the time of the draft was a 3rd line checking winger?

Generally what I believe about the draft anyway. I’ve got to dive more into the history of so-called character / depth / energy guys but my guess is many (most?) of them were not drafted to be those kind of players.

 

[Guttersniped]

Generally what I believe about the draft anyway. I’ve got to dive more into the history of so-called character / depth / energy guys but my guess is many (most?) of them were not drafted to be those kind of players.

The thing is Stillman’s D-1 numbers are in line for his draft position and there was no OHL season in his draft year.

I do wonder if his coach in 2019-20, Cory Stillman *cough*, maybe helped him have a season that got him on the OHL First Rookie Team. (The other 2003 kids who also won that are pretty good.)

It was a weird, challenging draft year.

I will say I do give Stillman a shot still because he does have a hell of a motor and his skating is pretty good. Also no one produces particularly well on his team, it’s pretty grindy.

Obviously his production undeniably sucked and it’s disturbing how little he could stand out offensively on that team at his age, but such is life.

 

[NjdevilfanJim]

I am pulling for this kid to make it....This amount of doubt and scrutiny on a pick is just too much:...He was drafted by NJ now just hope for the best...I think he has a good shot to make it onto the Devils down the road not because of draft position but because of his tenacity and skating....He plays a heavy game that is in demand....

 

[Blackjack]

The thing is Stillman’s D-1 numbers are in line for his draft position and there was no OHL season in his draft year.

I do wonder if his coach in 2019-20, Cory Stillman *cough*, maybe helped him have a season that got him on the OHL First Rookie Team. (The other 2003 kids who also won that are pretty good.)

View attachment 718955

It was a weird, challenging draft year.

I will say I do give Stillman a shot still because he does have a hell of a motor and his skating is pretty good. Also no one produces particularly well on his team, it’s pretty grindy.

Obviously his production undeniably sucked and it’s disturbing how little he could stand out offensively on that team at his age, but such is life.

Can I ask you your opinion on Brennan Othmann? Rangers fans seem very high on him but his post draft production seems pretty pedestrian.

 

[devilsblood]

I am pulling for this kid to make it....This amount of doubt and scrutiny on a pick is just too much:...He was drafted by NJ now just hope for the best...I think he has a good shot to make it onto the Devils down the road not because of draft position but because of his tenacity and skating....He plays a heavy game that is in demand....

Skating being the key here. I think you can find plenty of guys who are big and play physical, but if they are trailing the play it's not going to matter.

But if they have higher end speed, then they have a chance to latch on, and then perhaps develop some skills along the way, I think McLeod is a good example of this.

In before people cite McLeod had better D+2 #'s, but just the same, if Stillman can legit skate, then I think he has a chance.

 

[Hockey Sports Fan]

His skating and the fact that no one’s expecting him to miraculously become a scoring forward is why i think he’s basically a lock to play an NHL game at some point. Low expectation = low pressure. Easy to chuck him on the fourth line and ask him to skate hard and forecheck.

 

[My3Sons]

His skating and the fact that no one’s expecting him to miraculously become a scoring forward is why i think he’s basically a lock to play an NHL game at some point. Low expectation = low pressure. Easy to chuck him on the fourth line and ask him to skate hard and forecheck.

That's a legit NHL player if he can accomplish that consistently and with some actual impact. Hopefully it works out for him.