I put this in the AHL thread but I might as well put it here too.
They give a good sense of how he has projectable traits but underperformed quite a bit with production.
His biggest selling point by far has always been his motor. He has offensive skill and good skating. He looks like a player who should have scored more in juniors.
He was on a team where traded players scored less, but they were the 12th highest scoring team in the OHL in last season.
As the 2022 write-up mentioned, his D-1 production was on par for a 1st round pick and then COVID wiped out out most of his draft year. But you want to see more post-draft production in Canadian Juniors.
There’s a question about how good his hockey sense is though. You can see that score drop year by year below in Elite Prospects’ coverage of Stillman since he was drafted.
The worry is he might be a guy who keeps his feet moving rather than thinks and plays at high pace.
I also worry about how well Stillman plays defense. He wasn’t one of Peterborough’s 10 forwards with shorthanded points in 2022-23, which makes me wonder how big a role he played on the PK. He did have 3 SH assists in 2021-22.
He isn’t particularly big so I don’t see his physical game having that much of an impact. He looked legit in 2022-23 Development Camp scrimmages, he definitely stood out live. I can see why his lack of production was a bit of a head-scratcher. He’s not a talentless banger.
It’s not negative to be realistic about Stillman. He has projectable qualities though and that’s what still gives us a little hope here.
This is the grade guide for the Elite Prospect scores.
This is FV (Future Value) score guide:
Stillman was 4.5 but dropped to 4.0 in 2023. They’re deliberately stingy so 4.5 is very common for ranked non-blue chip prospects.
Sep 29, 2021, NJD 11th Prospect Pool
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Born out of the bounty that saw Travis Zajac and Kyle Palmieri go to the New York Islanders, the New Jersey Devils selected the human locomotive of the 2021 draft, Chase Stillman, with the 29th pick.
This excerpt from the Elite Prospects 2021 Draft Guide describes Stillman's game to a tee, "Call it motor or energy or engagement or drive -- Stillman has it. He is willing to go above and beyond, willing to play whatever role needed to the maximum of his ability to give his team the win. Every game for him, you saw constant pressure on the forecheck, constant pressure on the backcheck, and rapid close-outs in the defensive zone -- and speed, more speed than we remembered from the previous OHL season. There are better skaters than Stillman in the draft, but few who move with the same energy. The Sudbury Wolves forward finished with one of the best expected goals and offensive-zone retrievals per 60 at the [U-18] tournament."
Stillman is somewhat limited in terms of dynamic offensive qualities, more specifically in how his handling and skating blend together. He struggles to string actions together in motion, static feet being the main issue.
The St. Louis-born winger has a lot of qualities to like, however. On top of his already high motor, Stillman protects the puck at an above-average level, and generally can execute high-level plays. Plus peripheral vision, give-and-go ability, deception, and passing skills like one-touches, slips, and backhand facilitations highlight his game.
With a return to the OHL's Sudbury Wolves in the cards, Stillman will not only receive more opportunity to flex his motor, but the extra puck touches should help develop his playmaking even more. In the future, further defensive development, along with his high engagement level over the 200 feet of ice, should create a favourable situation for Stillman to become a useful bottom-six player.
Sep 30, 2022 NJD 11th Prospect Pool
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Even my most pessimistic projection didn’t have Chase Stillman scoring just 49 points in 59 games. His draft-minus-one season featured less consistency than his peers but just as impressive highs as the best players in the age group. The midseason trade that sent him from a low-scoring team to an inconsistent, top-heavy one certainly didn’t help. However, it’s tough to see Stillman’s lack of success as anything other than disappointment.
There’s little doubt Stillman has the tools to be among the OHL’s leading scorers next season. It’s evident along the boards, where he combines finesse and power to pull pucks off the boards and step to the inside. Off the rush, he deceives opponents, then cuts across or drives the net. A quick, deceptive release houses a powerful shot, and when engaged, he shows the instincts necessary to support the shot.
Those impressive plays usually break up long stretches of limited impact. Stillman’s wasteful with touches in prime areas, blindly throwing pucks into space or trying to break through pressure himself with open teammates. A tendency to pass into defenders rather than around suggests he lacks the passing skill to access the lanes he identifies. And he often floats around and watches the play instead of taking an active hand in support or battling.
When Stillman’s engaged, he shows the off-puck instincts, positioning, and vision to link his numerous skills. In those moments, he looks like a potential top-nine with wrecking ball potential.
2023 NJD 11th Prospect Pool
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It's becoming increasingly difficult to try to justify or explain
Chase Stillman's unremarkable counting stats.
He played a big role on a Memorial Cup contending team (albeit, one where many top prospects saw their bottom line dip) in his draft-plus-two season and didn't even come particularly close to cracking the point-per-game mark. In fact, his per-game offence dipped relative to the season prior.
What's perhaps most frustrating about this lack of production is that Stillman has physical tools that would easily pass muster in professional hockey. He's explosive and quick as a skater, overwhelmingly physical, and has a shot that can threaten from some distance.
Yet the sum has been less than the equal of its parts for two seasons now. This isn't an accident though. Stillman mostly attacks in straight lines, often directly into pressure. The end result is a mountain of turnovers and low-percentage shots. He has passing skill but lacks the patience or the cunning to let plays develop or create in the face of pressure. His off-puck offence is mostly characterized by screening the goaltender with little movement to get open for clean looks.
The lack of sophistication in Stillman's game at this point suggests that even if he gets back on track, there isn't a particularly high ceiling here. If he can develop into a crash-and-bang bottom-of-the-lineup winger, though, there's a lot of value in that. Even if it's not the sort of value the Devils expected out of a first-round pick.
