Prospect Info: Chabot - potential

[Sens of Anarchy]

Chabot will be asking for 7+ million per season on his next contract. Gone are the days of bargain RFA deals, let's see if we pony up (probably not).

With Chabot I'd prefer that 8x7+ from 22/23 on makes the most sense for a player like him. Its better than him taking a bridge and then looking for more on a contract that would end when he's 35/36

 

[Xspyrit]

The reason the original stat was stupid is because it included PK time, and most of the guys high up had virtually none, while Karlsson, Burns and Letang had a bunch. It also can be skewed because some players get a larger portion of their total time on the PP, so even though the raw amount per game is similar, the PP production has a greater impact on their total p/60. Breaking it apart into different strengths definitely helps, but Chabot has had some sheltered mins in his career, this year not as much though. He's definitely trending very well, hope he can keep it up.

Well, I didn't do all the work in one post so I went with the overall P/60. Since it was "stupid" then I posted more details but that required more time and work. Is it really stupid when we don't post everything in the same post? It's just one post, obviously can't do all the extended work in every post... I get personal attacks when I do too, but for different reasons

By the way, I also posted Karlsson's SH TOI/GP, 1:12 per game, is it really that much? If I could have gotten PP + ES production at the same time, that's what I would have posted initially but don't know where to find that.

 

[OmniSens]

Will be better than Erik Karlsson.

 

[Micklebot]

Well, I didn't do all the work in one post so I went with the overall P/60. Since it was "stupid" then I posted more details but that required more time and work. Is it really stupid when we don't post everything in the same post? It's just one post, obviously can't do all the extended work in every post... I get personal attacks when I do too, but for different reasons

By the way, I also posted Karlsson's SH TOI/GP, 1:12 per game, is it really that much? If I could have gotten PP + ES production at the same time, that's what I would have posted initially but don't know where to find that.

The point is all situation pts per 60 is meaningless for the reasons already mentioned. Don't bother with it and save yourself some time. That's all. No personal attack here, just explaining why you got the reaction you did when you posted it.

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

If only we had an elite RHD to pair with Chabot it would be simply amazing!

 

[swiftwin]

With Chabot I'd prefer that 8x7+ from 22/23 on makes the most sense for a player like him. Its better than him taking a bridge and then looking for more on a contract that would end when he's 35/36

Agreed. That's how we got Karlsson on such a good deal for such a long time.

 

[Sensung]

I'd prefer to hold our owner accountable, thanks.

 

[Do Make Say Think]

With Chabot I'd prefer that 8x7+ from 22/23 on makes the most sense for a player like him. Its better than him taking a bridge and then looking for more on a contract that would end when he's 35/36

That is the new normal for potential superstars. No more deferred earnings to UFA when teams rely on you so much at ages 21 through 24 when that didn't use to be the case.

I think Chabot has shown to have that kind of potential.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

Teams sign RFAs to these 7-8 deals because they think it's a net positive, not necessarily because players have the leverage. In the grand scheme of things, Nylander type situations are pretty rare.

Look at Subban. Montreal probably could have had him for a few million less on a 7-8 year deal than what he eventually signed for after his bridge deal if they didn't bridge him. That's what teams are looking at as a consequence of they don't bridge superstars.

 

[topshelf15]

Give him 8 years,use the advantage we have ...

 

[Rhaegar Targaryen]

Chabot was a beast in junior/WJC. He then came up to Ottawa and put up a 32 point pace last season on a disaster of a team/season. Now he’s breaking out and showing glimpses of being an elite #1D.

Easy decision for me - sign him eight years.

 

[Answer]

Is this really a question? Ottawa has no option but to sign Chabot. I can only imagine what goes down if Ottawa refuse to pay him and let him walk/trade him LOL!!!

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

Is this really a question? Ottawa has no option but to sign Chabot. I can only imagine what goes down if Ottawa refuse to pay him and let him walk/trade him LOL!!!

RFAs don't "walk" from their teams.

 

[coladin]

Awesome. Way too many minutes right now. They need to dial it back and protect the kid. With "who" is the problem lol

 

[Answer]

It would be better if we have a solid veteran D-man who can play with Chabot and form a #1 pairing

Lajoie can be paired with Jaros or DeMelo

 

[Xspyrit]

The point is all situation pts per 60 is meaningless for the reasons already mentioned. Don't bother with it and save yourself some time. That's all. No personal attack here, just explaining why you got the reaction you did when you posted it.

[MOD]

Look at the list again. I knew the SH TOI would have an effect on this but looking at the list, it's was pretty evident that it wouldn't affect many of them, and it was also absolutely logic that good offensive D-men would get a lot of PP time. Look at post #77, the ES and PP P/60 are there and yes, the initial list makes sense

(PP TOI/GP vs SH TOI/GP in red)

1- SHAYNE.GOSTISBEHERE 1.93 (233 GP) 3:49 vs 0:06
2- ERIK.KARLSSON 1.87 (640 GP) 3:59 vs 1:12
3- WILL.BUTCHER 1.86 (91 GP) 2:49 vs 0:04
4- MARC-ANDRE.BERGERON 1.84 (151 GP) 2:59 vs 0:08
5- JOHN.KLINGBERG 1.82 (315 GP) 3:16 vs 0:29
6- MIKHAIL.SERGACHEV 1.8 (95 GP) 1:51 vs 0:04
7- BRENT.BURNS 1.74 (578 GP) 3:13 vs 1:42
8- KRIS.LETANG 1.72 (547 GP) 3:45 vs 2:09
9- TOREY.KRUG 1.7 (399 GP) 3:01 vs 0:22
10- THOMAS.CHABOT 1.69 (76 GP) 2:05 vs 0:11
11- BRIAN.RAFALSKI 3:40 vs 0:43
12- DUSTIN.BYFUGLIEN 3:25 vs 1:07
13- KEVIN.SHATTENKIRK 3:03 vs 1:05
14- TYSON.BARRIE 3:05 vs 0:22
15- P.K..SUBBAN 3:41 vs 2:06

For example, Karlsson might have 1:12 of PK TOI/GP but Butcher has 1:10 PP TOI/GP less, so their P/60 for ES + PP would be pretty similar. But yeah, I'm not going to do the math to get the exact numbers. It was for people to take for what it's worth

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

 

[Cosmix]

Don’t forget how he will turn into a selfish player and a locker room cancer right before he leaves and that’s why we had to move him.

I hear he tends to break things, like dressing rooms. No need for that type on this team.

 

[Masked]

It was stupid for stupid people.

No, it was a stupid list for a useless stat.

I knew I couldn't get the ES+PP only data so I still posted the results of the OA TOI P/60 data. So just for wanting to share some results of my research, it got called stupid.

No, it got called stupid because it was a stupid thing to post that didn't demonstrate anything. Even when I explained the issue with it, you couldn't figure it out. Then others tried to explain it to you and seemingly failed as well.

Actually I think I'm going to stop sharing data because it doesn't seem like many appreciate it (and I got mocked a few times, one poster even said that he would question a person's intelligence and sanity for posting data on Bobby Ryan), so maybe this board is way too brilliant for the kind of stuff that I post, so I'll just stop wasting my time. This board clearly doesn't need that type of posting, the endless blaming game and name calling is just so much smarter

This probably a good idea but the only one name calling here is you.

 

[Blotto71]

RFAs don't "walk" from their teams.

I like how you chose to ignore the "/trade" part. Excellent work.

 

[TheNewEra]

his potential is an expensive dman that our fan base and media turn on then we trade him for pennies on the dollar for character

 

[Answer]

Only a matter of time before Melnyk storms into the lockeroom to confront Chabot - "Do you think you're bigger than the team?"

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

I like how you chose to ignore the "/trade" part. Excellent work.

I like how you chose not to acknowledge the fact that you thought a RFA "could walk" at the end of their contract.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

 

[Xspyrit]

No, it was a stupid list for a useless stat.



No, it got called stupid because it was a stupid thing to post that didn't demonstrate anything. Even when I explained the issue with it, you couldn't figure it out. Then others tried to explain it to you and seemingly failed as well.



This probably a good idea but the only one name calling here is you.

So you're still claiming it was "stupid"? let's see

So I did the math to get P/60 without SH TOI (so EV+PP only) and this is the results :

1. WILL.BUTCHER
P/60 = 2.06 (#3 in my initial list, +0.20 variation)

2. SHAYNE.GOSTISBEHERE
P/60 = 1.98 (#1 in my initial list, +0.05 variation)

3. ERIK.KARLSSON
P/60 = 1.97 (#2 in my initial list, +0.10 variation)

4. BRENT.BURNS
P/60 = 1.97 (#7 in my initial list, +0.23 variation)

5. JOHN.KLINGBERG
P/60 = 1.89 (#5 in my initial list, +0.07 variation)

6. MARC-ANDRE.BERGERON
P/60 = 1.88 (#4 in my initial list, +0.04 variation)

7. KRIS.LETANG
P/60 = 1.87 (#8 in my initial list, +0.15 variation)

8. TOREY.KRUG
P/60 = 1.79 (#9 in my initial list, +0.09 variation)

9. THOMAS.CHABOT
P/60 = 1.79 (#10 in my initial list, +0.10 variation)

10. MIKHAIL.SERGACHEV
P/60 = 1.76 (#6 in my initial list, - 0.04 variation)

A few games have been played since I initially posted this so it changed a bit (mainly due to sample sizes for Chabot , Butcher and Sergachev) but overall the list is very similar to the initial one. I verified if other D-men would make their way on that list but doesn't look like it (did I miss anyone you think?)

Rafalski 1.76
Shattenkirk 1.76
Byfuglien 1.72
Subban 1.72
Barrie 1.72
Yandle 1.64
Hedman 1.64
Green 1.62
Josi 1.59
Hamilton 1.59
Keith 1.56
Pietrangelo 1.56
Weber 1.53
McAvoy 1.53
Giordano 1.48
Rielly 1.42
Doughty 1.41
OEL 1.38
Goligoski 1.34
Suter 1.32

If the initial list was so "stupid", how do you explain that it painted a pretty good portrait of which D-men were the most productive vs TOI? It has the exact same 10 players in the top-10

And if you look at the variations, they were all positive except Sergachev (again, smaller sample size), the ones most impacted by PK vs production are Burns and Letang but the difference is not outrageous. It just shows that Burns has been as productive (ES+PP) as Karlsson since EK joined the league.

The point at the beginning was just to compare D-men offensive production since 2009-10 (when Karlsson started) in relation to the minutes they play, so using their P/60, which included PK time for simplification purposes.

You stated that it was stupid and then I explained to you in post #77 that these D-men get a lot of PP time and not that much PK time. Just looking at that list, it was not a very difficult deduction to make. But even though I explained it to you and came up with the ES P/60 and PP P/60, you are still calling it stupid... Problem here is your brain pretty much stalled at the first thought you had. So, I'm sorry but no, it's not that "I couldn't figure it out" (I was aware that my stat included PK since the beginning), it's just that you're probably a bit lost in all that, and the new data I provided in this post proves that those D-men are all among the elite when it comes to offensive production from the blueline. Yeah, it took a bit of time to make that post, but I hope it becomes a lesson for you to look yourself in the mirror next time before calling something stupid