Value of: Ceci's next UFA contract

[Empoleon8771]

Solid #4 or solid bottom pair? I think the latter.

I think whatever you'd consider 2016 Ben Lovejoy to be comparable to Ceci.

Good bottom pair D that you can rely on in a #4 role seems like a fair comment to call Ceci. I can see "solid #4D" carrying some expectations that I don't think Ceci would be able to reliably hit.

 

[TySmith4Norris]

Less than 3M for 3 years or less and it’s hard to go wrong

He’s been extremely solid in a third line role in Pittsburgh

 

[SEALBound]

The body of work he put up prior to this season is more indicative of the type of player he is as opposed to this current outlier. I'd be very cautious giving him anything with term. The talent was there prior to joining the league, but such a frustrating player to watch. Anything longer than 2-3 years would scare me.

And by "body of work" you mean a 3rd pairing caliber dman performing poorly on the top pairing with two teams (on being Toronto who had a rotten defense anyway)?

Vs

A third line caliber dman playing well on the third pairing.

I just want to make sure we all understand your viewpoint...

 

[Toronto makebeleifs]

And by "body of work" you mean a 3rd pairing caliber dman performing poorly on the top pairing with two teams (on being Toronto who had a rotten defense anyway)?

Vs

A third line caliber dman playing well on the third pairing.

I just want to make sure we all understand your viewpoint...

Well, perhaps his play in the roles he contributed assisted in the overall play of the defence. I'm sure the 16 game evaluation versus the previous 5+ years of work would be an apt sample size to use.

If pens fans are happy with him, great. This was a thread for evaluation of his next contract. If you'd be comfortable giving a replaceable defenceman (by all previous metrics) term, have at it. I wouldn't, nor would I give him 3m+.

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

And by "body of work" you mean a 3rd pairing caliber dman performing poorly on the top pairing with two teams (on being Toronto who had a rotten defense anyway)?

Vs

A third line caliber dman playing well on the third pairing.

I just want to make sure we all understand your viewpoint...

Sens were no field of daisies, either....

 

[Mickey Marner]

Maybe marginally higher AAV and longer term. 2×2 or something.

 

[Le Magnifique 66]

There is no rush to extend him, I really like the way he has been playing but Ceci is the type of player that we would need to sign year by year.
I know he would like stability, maybe 2 years I'd go if he keeps playing like this all season but definitely not more than that.

 

[MattySnipes]

I told Pens fans on Twitter when they got him that they'll be pleasantly surprised and seems coach is using him smart too. Good for him. Nice to see him doing well.

 

[SEALBound]

Well, perhaps his play in the roles he contributed assisted in the overall play of the defence. I'm sure the 16 game evaluation versus the previous 5+ years of work would be an apt sample size to use.

If pens fans are happy with him, great. This was a thread for evaluation of his next contract. If you'd be comfortable giving a replaceable defenceman (by all previous metrics) term, have at it. I wouldn't, nor would I give him 3m+.

Judging a fish by his ability to climb a tree is not a fruitful endeavor.

I'm not dismissing Ceci's previous crappy years but if you judge a 3rd pairing caliber guy for being bad on the top pairing, that's less on him than you.

I would almost suggest that even this small sample size would support a much more logical and reasonable conclusion that a 3rd pairing guy will do well on the 3rd pairing. His next contract? Decent 3rd pairing contract.

 

[Sensmileletsgo]

Yes. Believe it or not, hockey exists outside of Toronto too.

He got run out of Ottawa as well.

 

[NyQuil]

He got run out of Ottawa as well.

He was groomed to be a shutdown defenceman here for some reason which makes no sense, playing big top four minutes against the best players in the league.

In Toronto they put him on the top pairing for awhile with Rielly.

Pittsburgh is the first place where I think expectations are in line with his capabilities.

 

[Sensmileletsgo]

He was groomed to be a shutdown defenceman here for some reason which makes no sense, playing big top four minutes against the best players in the league.

In Toronto they put him on the top pairing for awhile with Rielly.

Pittsburgh is the first place where I think expectations are in line with his capabilities.

Ya, 18 minutes a night not been used in a shutdown role is where he belongs. Ottawa asked too much of him from too young an age.

 

[Filthy Dangles]

He still sucks and is pretty much someone you can sign for a million or so dollars every offseason.

 

[Toronto makebeleifs]

Judging a fish by his ability to climb a tree is not a fruitful endeavor.

I'm not dismissing Ceci's previous crappy years but if you judge a 3rd pairing caliber guy for being bad on the top pairing, that's less on him than you.

I would almost suggest that even this small sample size would support a much more logical and reasonable conclusion that a 3rd pairing guy will do well on the 3rd pairing. His next contract? Decent 3rd pairing contract.

Well, it sounds more like we're agreeing, but different paths to get there. 3rd pairing money is typically ranged berween 1.5-3m aav anyways. It's also somewhat uncommon to give those guys long term deals. If he continues to play well I'd go so far as 2maav 2yrs. More term and more dollars is gambling that he will continue his current play, and will translate to that being the norm. Too much more than that and it runs the risk of being a matheson-lite type of deal (okay, a bit hyperbolic there. Maybe more like Edmondson)

 

[66-30-33]

There is no rush to extend him, I really like the way he has been playing but Ceci is the type of player that we would need to sign year by year.
I know he would like stability, maybe 2 years I'd go if he keeps playing like this all season but definitely not more than that.

I doubt he gets anything more then a 1 year deal, he's a 3rd pair dman and with the cap staying the same for a while he will have to get used to 1 year deals for a little while.

 

[Albus Dumbledore]

Ceci reminds me of Dion Phaneuf in his latter years. At that point, Phaneuf would still throw some hits nothing too crazy, similar to Ceci now. Ceci a little less physical but a little more mobile, Phaneuf could score a bit better, and Ceci defends a bit better. Ceci is like a D 4.5 lol.

 

[cyris]

Honestly he was a guy who got too much hate in Toronto. He is a 6/7 Dman who was played in the top 4 because our D sucked.

It wasn’t his fault we had crap depth and numerous injuries on the back end and were using him as a top 4 D when he clearly shouldn’t have been. It’s the Tyler Bozak effect. People hated him for being a poor 1st line center when he should have been a 3rd line center. It wasn’t his fault the Leafs didn’t have better center depth.

That said I didn’t want him back at any price but am glad to see him doing well now.

 

[DearDiary]

The body of work he put up prior to this season is more indicative of the type of player he is as opposed to this current outlier. I'd be very cautious giving him anything with term. The talent was there prior to joining the league, but such a frustrating player to watch. Anything longer than 2-3 years would scare me.

Leafs used Ceci against other teams best players. At the same time was tasked for covering Rielly floating and jumping into plays. How is that more indicative of the type of player he is? It's not his fault the Leafs D is so bad they needed him to be a #2 Dman.

Looking at opposition stats, the players Ceci faced the most 5on5 since 2018 are Kucherov followed by Pastrnak. You're telling me we should use his Leafs stats to represent his play? Senators were no better with his usage.

 

[Toronto makebeleifs]

Leafs used Ceci against other teams best players. At the same time was tasked for covering Rielly floating and jumping into plays. How is that more indicative of the type of player he is? It's not his fault the Leafs D is so bad they needed him to be a #2 Dman.

Looking at opposition stats, the players Ceci faced the most 5on5 since 2018 are Kucherov followed by Pastrnak. You're telling me we should use his Leafs stats to represent his play? Senators were no better with his usage.

Well, you kind of answered your own question. He isn't capable of top line minutes, based on both the time in Ottawa and Toronto. I'm not here to bash ceci, rather, respond to the original thread of what his value might be. He is being deployed, currently, as a third pairing defenceman. The crux of my argument is that, regardless of current play, he should be looked at as a third pairing d. Those types of players don't command term or major dollars. If ceci can continue his current play, he's still a guy that should only get 2-3 years, max, with a sub 3aav. Any more than that is an extreme gamble That (again, based on his previous track record) will upset fans and gm's alike. Listen, I'm not here to bash or troll. He's playing alright currently, but to pay a guy based on a relatively small sample size while ignoring the lager body of work is a poor use of cap space. 2×2 is totally fair

 

[Man Bear Pig]

Yes. Believe it or not, hockey exists outside of Toronto too.

Believe it or not, he sucked in Ottawa too. Yes, he sucked here, he sucked in Ottawa, and he'll probably suck in Pittsburgh if you give him enough time.

 

[OtherThingsILike]

I wouldn't mind a 2x2. I'd be upset with more, but I don't think anyone would give him more, especially in the era of COVID.

 

[Mtler in Toronto]

1 Year-100,000 Rubles and all the borscht he can eat.

 

[NjdevilfanJim]

Since coming to Pittsburgh, Ceci has been surprisingly like super good for the Penguins. He has 5 points in 12 games while playing over 18 minutes a night, and his analytics paint him as positives both offensively and defensively. It's even getting noticed with the eye test as well:




So if Ceci actually is a solid #4D if you use him right, what kind of contract do you think Ceci is lined up to get as a UFA next off-season? Do teams get blinded by his strong year and make the same mistakes that they've made in the past, or are they more cautious while realizing Ceci is only solid in a depth role?

Maybe the bouncing around woke him up but I would buy with caution until he proves it back to back years that his all around game is his focus.

 

[BrawlFan]

Unless he goes to Wonderland and finally finds a brain for hockey this guy is a bottom pairing D. Trust me. I watched him for YEARS. Maybe with the right partner he can have a role but these guys aren't hard to find. The giveaways and lack of offensive IQ mixed with his gaffs on the D side are just too much to be reliable. I would say he's going to get something around 2-3M for 2-3 years.

 

[Flyer lurker]

2yr 2-2.25m per I can go along.

Guessing he gets a lot more since it only takes one gm to be stupid.