I've been thinking Ceci is gonna end with a two year settlement prior to arbitration, but after thinking about it from the player's perspective, there's no way I would sign a settlement prior to the hearing. If I am Cody Ceci I pull some gangsta shit and insist on going to arbitration if the Sens won't do a long term deal. Assuming he thinks he can sit through Pierre Dorion and Randy Lee showing pie charts explaining why he is a bad player without crying like Tommy Salo did, Ceci has nothing to lose by going to arbitration if the Senators are only offering him a 2 year deal that isn't a substantial raise rather than a long term deal.
He can't get less than his qualifying offer in arbitration. Anything can happen in arbitration. What happens if he gets an arbitrator who really likes Danny Dekeyser's contract? We saw Hoffman get absolutely shafted a few years ago in arbitration, but it goes both ways.
Ceci has all the leverage here to get a long term deal because his qualifying offer is so close to what most people would suggest the Senators offer him on a 2 year deal. While the Senators as a budget team typically don't have a lot of wiggle room to the point where the risk of Ceci getting 4.5-5M in an arbitration case is probably a big one to take if the alternative is a 4-5 year back loaded deal where Ceci makes 3.5M in the first year, and the Senators can worry about trading him or making it work money wise later on.
When I initially thought about this, I really thought a 2 year settlement would happen, but thinking about it from the player's perspective, I think if we see a long term extension, it won't be because the Senators love Ceci, it'll be because they are afraid of going to arbitration and losing the ability to kick the can down the road with a back loaded contract.