He's not gonna get as much as Rielly on a 6 year term. Rielly is the Leafs top defender right now.
My prediction would probably be a 3 year deal with a backloaded 2.75 AAV. That sounds low, but last year I was high on all my RFA predictions for the Senators so I am trying to play it safe.....they got Z/Pageau/Stone/and through arb Hoffman+Chiasson all down to really cheap deals.
If it is a bridge contract, it'll be 3 years long so that it staggers with Zibanejad, and Stone. A 3 year deal means Ceci's big contract is signed a year after Stone's is.
With a 2.75 AAV, it can be staggered to help the Senators supposed budget while also giving Ceci a nice final year which will give him a big qualifying offer. 2/2.25/4.
The downside to that, is that when his contract is up, Ceci probably commands 6M-7M if he proves to be a stable number 3 RHD. So if the Sens are confident in Ceci, and it works within their budget, locking him down 6-8 years at 4M-5M might end up saving them millions in the backend of the deal. After Greening and Cowen busting, the Senators seem very risk adverse, but we'll see what happens now that there is a new man in charge.