Captain Mountain
Formerly Captain Wolverine
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That's still just an unsubstantiated opinion. Its not "clear", no matter how many times you say it.
Value of: Carey Price and Shea Weber
- Thread starter Benstheman
- Start date
That's still just an unsubstantiated opinion. Its not "clear", no matter how many times you say it.
You're kidding, right? Do people think NHL GMs hate job security or something...
firstemperor
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- May 25, 2011
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No, I'm not kidding. I don't think teams would be lining up to pay Price 10.5mv AAV into his late 30's, especially for the iteration of the Price we have seen for the last 2 years.
Nor do I think Price and his contract/term genuinely necessitate "job security" for any GM in the league. I don't know where that factoid is coming from.
Maybe my opinion will change barring this off-season if a new precedent is set for contracts being handed out, but not right now.
Lol. Because we don't have a plethora of older goalies in the NHL already who have done just fine.
One of the best goalies in the world would be of ZERO interest for a GM desperate to hold onto his job (nevermind a GM just looking for a star goalie).
You're full of nonsense.
Both had good seasons; the problem is they’re being paid elite-level (or in Price’s case, well beyond elite-level) money, and will continue to be for the next seven seasons. Neither player is worth anywhere near what he’s being paid now and that gap is only going to worsen as the years go by. It’s not that either of them sucks (though Price certainly did last season) - it’s their contracts that give them significant negative value.
firstemperor
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Yea let's ignore context that Price is the only goalie at the moment, signed into his late 30's, even approaching a 8 digit salary with term. How many of these "older goalies" serve as comparable's?
Despite you never stating it outright, the "best goalie in the world" statement is purely subjective and honestly has not been true for a while now.
Also you've seemed to create a straw-man for yourself based on my comment. I didn't imply specifically that Price-> another team would not qualify as some thought experiment, but I don't doubt the interest would be minimal.
As for your blanket statement that a GM who is desperate for job security would be enamored with the idea of Price- this statement is tough to dispute because it's such a baseless comment.
Fogelhund
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- Sep 15, 2007
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You call people names, and concurrently display a stunning lack of knowledge on the teams you speak of. Priceless.
He is now, but did you just happen to skip this guy named Lundqvist? It won't be long before other goalies come close to Price's deal - his just happened to come after a Hart win.
I pretty clearly stated one of the best in the world. That's because he is. Don't misquote me. If the Olympics started tomorrow and NHL players were called, he'd be the starting goalie.
No. You assumed he'd have very little interest even if he were free. I'm sorry if you're embarrassing comments are just that.
People like to shit on Price's contract, but quickly forget there are dozens of much worse deals out there that GMs have given to players because they just happened to cost no assets. Yes, job security is actually a thing and GMs always look to improve their team.
firstemperor
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I didn't misquote you, I even stated clearly in my post that you did not say "best goalie in the world" outright. I'm referring to this narrative that exists in general, and it's not just HF.
When goalies salary start to become genuinely comparable to the cap-hit/term that Price has hit, with what he's accomplished recently (and less-so in the past) then my opinion will change. My opinion is not static. But the fact of the matter is goalie's in general, are not a high-price commodity. What did Leafs get Andersen for? Not much. There are only ~30 starting goalie NHL spots in the league. Price is not a transcendent talent.
A team like the Islanders, Canes, Blues are surviving just fine with value-efficient goaltenders. Is Price really transcendent enough to justify the term and hit he has?
Lundqvist is a interesting comparison. Not only does Price make more as is, but a similar argument could exist for him as I am making with Price. This isn't anti-Habs gospel.
The starter on the WC team means very little. Reimer/Scrivens split duties not too long ago. I don't think Murray would go to be a back-up, just like I don't expect Price to go to be a back-up.
You can call my comments embarrassing if you want, but I still don't think his interest would be significant even as a empty wallet. It's almost equivalent to asking:
If Price hit UFA today- would a team sign him for 10.5m AAV, 8 years, into his late 30's. I don't think teams would be lining up to do that. I do think it would generate thought. I don't think it's embarrassing to say either.
Problem with Weber is that if we move him, we suffer if he retires from cap recapture. Also, he is one of two legitimate defensemen on an otherwise barren team. The only teams that would have any interest in him are teams who are that one elite defensive piece away from being serious contenders, and have the young players (that they don't particularly need) who the Habs would value.
In terms of Price; we saw this year how badly we needed him to bail out our group time and time again to win games. He also has a large contract that most teams wouldn't be able to take on without sending something of substantial value back.
Value wise: I could see them move him back to Nashville because of the aforementioned cap implications of him retiring: Shea Weber at 7m, Andrew Shaw and CBJ's 2nd round pick for Mattias Ekholm, Nashville's 1st round pick, and Mikael Granlund.
Value wise: I doubt any team can afford the cost of Price, but examples include:
Price at 9m and Byron to Edmonton for Russell, Sekera, RNH, Puljujarvi and one of Bouchard/8OA. The Habs go on a 3 year mini-rebuild and free Edmonton up from a shit ton of cap space.
In a world where we take the NSH deal for Weber and the EDM deal for Price, we end up getting:
LD: Mattias Ekholm
C: Mikael Granlund
C: Ryan Nugent Hopkins
RW: Jesse Puljujarvi
RD: Evan Bouchard
Picks: 8th overall, 24th overall.
You would likely move Granlund at the draft to a team like Dallas, Vegas, or the Coyotes in hopes of being able to draft one of Lavoie or Suzuki.
Then we could do something like 15th overall + 24th overall + RNH for 4th overall (COL) to draft one of Byram, Cozens or Turcotte. With the 8th overall pick we likely grab one of Dach or Caufield.
So in the end, we lose Price and Weber and gain Ekholm (2LD), Puljujarvi (good prospect who has struggled), and three blue chip prospects. Some fans may think that I have overvalued Price and Weber; but even at the prices I named I don't think I would be crazy about moving either player at this point.
If Erik Karlsson makes it to free agency, then we have a serious chance at grabbing him due to Montreal being so geographically close to Ottawa for his wife. If he wants to contend, the Habs are definitely a wildcard team that with a few small adjustments, and the injection of young talent into the lineup (Suzuki, Romanov, Poehling) could get a lot better fast.
If Mitch Marner makes it to free agency, the Habs are one of a select few teams who have the means (and probably interest) to offer-sheet the kid.
When we have only one BAD contract (Alzner) and a few easily movable ones (Shaw, Byron) that would allow us to quickly and easily move 10+ million in cap space, it's not a stretch to think that this could be the year the Habs make a massive splash in Free Agency. Add to the aforementioned Matt Duchene, Wayne Simmonds and Artemi Panarin -- the rumors of Malkin being available; and you realize that the Habs have the assets, the cap space, and the team in place to make big moves to become contenders. Moving Price or Weber hits the reset button, which MAY be the "better" option but its always tough to say.
FerrisRox
"Wanna go, Prettyboy?"
Again, Price won a Hart. Did you expect him to take less money than he was worth? You have a player on your team already making more money than him and his sole trophy is a Calder, ffs. Yes, top goalies make bank. Bobrovsky is about to cash in and guess what? A team will pay him.
Because the Isles, Canes and Blues have done well so far without a star goalie doesn't mean much. The Blues had all their hopes on Jake Allen only for a rookie to supplant him. These things happen. We've also seen goalies in the past have great starts (Raycroft, Jim Carey, etc,.) only to quickly flame out. Price has been consistent (when not injured).
No one cares about the WC.
Weber had an elite 2/3 of a season. He was such a huge piece of Habs success this year. Had he played a full year, he probably would have been top 10 for Norris. Hell, he could of had career’s numbers had he played 82 games. That’s elite.
Price was way above elite plays this year. Of all the goalie in the league, he had the biggest (and by far) impact for his team, similar to the impact both McDavid & Kucherov had on their team. If you’re subscribed to the Athletic (if you’re not, you should sign ups) and read this article: On the Vezina: Using deeper data to re-evaluate the...
On another note, their contract long term aren’t the better one on the market for sure. The prime years of a goalie in the league are their 30-36 years old seasons. Price cap hit is high right now (and he’s earned every penny of it so far). In my opinion, he’s paid fairly. However, what people fail to understand, is as the years goes by and the cap go up, the cap implication of such a contract goes down every year. So when Price will be out of his prime (but still a competent goalie), his cap implication (% of the cap taken) will be much lower and reflect his actual play. As I said, he’s paid fairly and probably will be paid fairly through his remaining contract years. What really hurt his value is his NMC, not the contract itself.
I won’t really discuss Weber’s contract as it has been discussed plenty already. But just like Price, his cap implication goes down every year and if a 38-40 years old Chara can take ~8-10% of the cap and still be very effective in his role and play, I don’t see how or why a guy like Weber (who everyone expect to fall off a cliff every year) couldn’t. Again, in a few years, his play will suffer a bit, but his cap implication will be lower as well and real $ salary almost inexistant. Again, not a bargin of contract, but definitely not an anchor either
ottawa
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Very unnecessary, both are playing at elite levels and not showing any notable signs of slowing down. Makes no sense to trade them, they are valuable pieces of our core.
Devonator
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Don't worry...with that contract Price is not tradeable......you are stuck with him whether you like it or not! Same with Weber.
lol.
Teams will be lining up to try and sign Bobrovsky (though we all know where he's going to end up)
And he's going to get paid Price $ ... give or take 500k.
Price is the better goaltender. He absolutely is movable.
Weber also played like a top 10 defenseman this season after returning from a surgery that people (such as yourself if I had to imagine) determined would be the start of the end for him.
Unmovable though... lol
firstemperor
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We'll see if a team pays Bob analogous to what Price got in terms of cap hit and term. And if that happens, maybe I'll have the same opinion that it's a idiotic move- but we're speaking in hypotheticals until that happens.
Your point about The Isles, Canes, Blues success with their goaltending situation just reinforces the notion that Price isn't worth his cap hit and term. I feel it's actually supporting my argument, not helping yours.
#1G's don't hold that type of value in terms of commodity. There are a finite amount of starting positions in the league and you would have to be truly transcendent to deserve a transcendent salary/term that Price has, right now, over every other goalie in the league.
#1C and #1D do have that worth IMHO. Not only are they harder to obtain, there isn't a cap on the amount the league can have, and a team can never have enough of them.
The WC is a useful predictor, but you brought up the WC in this thread, not me- and your point was that Price would be the starter. I told you such as designation doesn't matter, no relevant #1 goalie would go overseas during the offseason for the World Championship to be a backup. Reimer/Scrivens shared starting duties a few years back.
I won't disregard the WC altogether though, it might be more relevant if you brought up skaters and their productivity. At the very least, that is indicative of worth.
On the Vezina: Using deeper data to re-evaluate the...
Literally the goalie who had the biggest (positive) impact on his team this year.
This is pointless. There are no players in the final four that are above $8M. I can guarantee you that you won't be seeing rich teams playing moneyball with star players anytime soon.
#1Cs are useless if you don't have solid goaltending. You can't just outscore your way to the Cup.
firstemperor
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The fact is, solid goaltending has been found in spades in avenues that don't require paying a absolute premium. You can call it pointless all you want but it's pretty convincing to me. The 8M point means nothing when you consider the term on the deals that guys like Burns, Vlasic have and considering guys like Bergeron and Marchand signed aged contracts. It's pretty clear that market value has reset since those contracts were signed. To say otherwise is completely naive, nor do I think it really matters to this discussion as the blueprint for winning is going to change, every year, based on who wins, period.
Yes, teams are useless without solid goaltending, I agree wholeheartedly. But you don't have to pay an absolute premium in cap hit and term for goaltending. If anything, goaltending is a position you can probably pinch pennies on, comparatively, to other positions in the league- unless you are really backed into a corner.
Liferleafer
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- Feb 9, 2011
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From a Leafs fan...and from a Leafs point of view:
Price-no offer. Great goalie but that cap hit is way to high.
Weber-ideal fit here, but age and contract make it a nogo. I would trade for him, but the Habs/fans would hate my offer.
Price-no offer. Great goalie but that cap hit is way to high.
Weber-ideal fit here, but age and contract make it a nogo. I would trade for him, but the Habs/fans would hate my offer.
Yeah, OK. If you could pick between a solid goalie or an elite one and you chose the former because he's a bit cheaper, you're not doing your job right.
Talk about Bergeron and Marchand all you want, they wouldn't have won anything if it weren't for Tim Thomas.
firstemperor
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If solid goaltending versus "elite goaltending" in a vacuum, is the only thing that's stopping you from putting your team over the top then yea, I would agree with you. That's not the case though. The context is Price being paid significantly more than any other comparables right now, at a 8 digit salary into his late 30's. Maybe if the market resets I can buy an argument otherwise.
