Confirmed Signing with Link: CAR to Match MTL's Offer Sheet for Sebastian Aho (5 years, $8.454M AAV) - Pt. 5 | Mod Note in OP

[Boom Boom Apathy]

no idea how to reply post on closed thread. tried to copy/past below. shout out to navin r slavin, liked your post and wanted to reply. cheers.


native said: I find it very hypocritical and/or naive / unaware for carolina/nhl fans to call out mtl for offer sheeting, saying its predatory, cheap, bullying on small market, etc,. poor small market carolina with billionaire owner. are these complainants even aware that carolina had themselves submitted an offer-sheet in the past?!


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navin r slavin said:

Yes, we're aware.

The difference is that Karmanos personally hated Ilitch and was trying to make the Fedorov offer hurt as much as possible. Bergevin was too much a weakling to do even that.

But thanks for the attempt at a history lesson.


you say "yes, we're aware", but are all really aware? or just you? because if you we all really aware, why hasn't it been brought up?

there is no difference. carolina submitted an offer sheet. agreed, berervin is a smuck.

perhaps you yourself are aware, but i think you're a part of an older fan base that has lived through the the ups and downs of your organization. alot of the posts i've read seem reactionary and completely unaware of your own team's actions. i can completely understand the emotion attachment as i feel the same for my own team.

i realize you are being sarcastic with your comment about history lesson. however, unlike you, i am very sincere.

my attempt at a history lesson was not an attempt at all. it was honestly to provide perspective to a this debacle, which i felt was a weak attempt but had no problem with doing so because mtl has nothing to lose.

in contrast, carolina has to agree to shorter term with no ufa yrs eaten up, and sb upfront which your organization doesn't typically do.

Correction, 1 Year of UFA will be eaten up.

 

[Chrispy]

Agreed, the offersheet was a pretty bad attempt and was a little light on the AAV if they actually wanted to pry Aho out of Carolina.

That being said the offersheet was a lot closer to Aho's ask than it was to Carolina's offer.

I think the belief that Carolina "won" here is better described by Waddell's simple "I thought it would be more." Hearing there's an offer sheet is a moment of dread; having it come in below what was being asked by Aho was a huge surprise and relief.

Given they ended up at an offer sheet, it's hard to imagine a scenario where the deal would be better for Carolina. Especially since Aho didn't seem interested in going beyond 5 years.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Negotiations between a player and a team often come back in the middle.

But when do offer sheets come in below the player's ask? Typically a player is going to sign his demand at a minimum for an offer sheet, or the team is going to go higher to max out that compensation bracket to make it harder to match.

Instead, Bergevin gambled on refusing to pay signing bonuses and went down to 1st 2nd 3rd.

If Dundon held fast on 8 years, I could have seen a holdout or a 1 year deal happening, only to go through this again.

Offersheets come in under the players asks for two reasons I would think. Firstly the player doesnt expect to get their original ask to be given and secondly the offersheeting team thinks the offersheeted team has undersold their player a ton.

The reported 7.5 x 8 is a laughably insulting offer to be honest. Even for an opening offer. I get why Aho would sign that offersheet.

Personally I think Bergevin was just trying to save face to make it look like he was actually trying to do something productive rather than actually trying to land Aho. If he offersheeted for 10.5 x 5 (2 1sts+ compensation) I would imagine it would be a difficult choice.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Even though they are playing it off like it’s no big deal it’s probably not ideal to have to pay a 20 year old over 20M in less then 12 months. Especially considering that with an inevitable lockout coming that money still gets paid out even though there won’t be any revenue during a lockout.

Second this deal walks Aho right to UFA status in only 5 seasons and sets the player up for a even bigger pay day.

Third it’s a lot of money for a guy trying to run a budget team and maintain a rigid internal cap structure.

Finally Dundon just lost 70M on an extremely poor decision to invest in the AAFL.

They can say what they want but the agent knew Dundon/Waddell were gonna nickel and dime them all summer long and he went another route that got this stalemate sorted out. In the end it’s not a bad deal for either side. The Canes get a manageable cap hit and Aho gets some upfront money that if he’s smart can make up the difference for him on a lower AAV/shorter term and he still cash in on a big UFA contract in 5 years.

2 minor correction.

1) Aho isn’t 20, he’s 21 and will be 22 in 3 weeks.

2) a 4 year deal would have walked him right to ufa status. 5 years eats up 1 year of UFA.

Minor points I know, but some posters bend the truth like this to strengthen their argument and it then gets perpetuated.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

That's partially true in that the Canes, understandably so, wanted to lock him up for 8 years. The Canes offer was $7.5 MM while the Aho camp wanted $9.5 MM.

Totally reasonable to expect they would have settled in the middle at $8.5 MM which is the AAV now. The Canes knew they couldn't get him for 8 years so this really isn't that far apart except for the big bonuses in years 1 and 2. But keep in mind the delta between them and $8.5 MM is the amount saved by moving DeHaan. So not exactly as per the plan but nothing to hand-wring about either.

If you look at pure AAV it is in the middle but when you include term is is most certainly a lot closer to Aho's ask. It is literally 1 million more per year + 3 less UFA years.

Which of these look the most similar:

7.5x8 vs 8.5x5 vs 9.5x5


Again like I've said, I think this is a pretty fair deal for both sides and he will certainly be worth the contract even this upcoming year.

I just have a problem with some fans (the person I replied to originally) acting like this is some big win and what Carolina wanted all along.

 

[Jerkob Slavin]

if you think that he's going to give you the home town discount because of " positive momentum and the embracing of his role" you are almost certainly mistaken seeing as he didnt give you one this time.
when he is free to go where he likes as you don't control his rights, we shall see.

Where did I say anything about a hometown discount? Please READ before responding or you are wasting my time. I clearly said market-level value contract.

Again, I think a lot of you guys are thinking we’re still owned by Karmanos. Dundon is freaking loaded and we’ve got lots of cap room.

 

[Svechhammer]

By The Numbers: Exploring Carolina’s Future Cap Situation

Because of the front-loaded nature of the offer, the Hurricanes will be paying Aho significantly less money in the latter half of the contract, which affords them more flexibility in terms of cash flow to lock up critical contracts. While it opens up a lot of money down the road, it won’t change how much cap space he’s occupying. $8.45 million is a pretty team friendly cap hit for a player of the caliber of Sebastian Aho, but there are plenty of other members of the core group that need deals soon.

And this right here is why this deal works well for the Canes. Right during a time when we are going to need to figure out what to do with players like Hamilton, Mrazek, Martinook, Svechnikov and Necas the actual money we will be paying out to Aho will drop off. So even if you are under the impression that the Canes are cash strapped, when it comes to Aho its more about the cap hit than the actual cash being paid because its basically frontloaded 50% in the first 2 years.

In the end, what was supposed to be the biggest reason we wouldn't be able to do this is likely going to be one of the bigger reasons why we should.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

I think the belief that Carolina "won" here is better described by Waddell's simple "I thought it would be more." Hearing there's an offer sheet is a moment of dread; having it come in below what was being asked by Aho was a huge surprise and relief.

Given they ended up at an offer sheet, it's hard to imagine a scenario where the deal would be better for Carolina. Especially since Aho didn't seem interested in going beyond 5 years.

I can agree with this, in the event of an offersheet this was a best case scenario for sure. However it was not the contract Carolina wanted to give out at a all, that was my sticking point.

 

[Seanaconda]

If you look at pure AAV it is in the middle but when you include term is is most certainly a lot closer to Aho's ask. It is literally 1 million more per year + 3 less UFA years.

Which of these look the most similar:

7.5x8 vs 8.5x5 vs 9.5x5


Again like I've said, I think this is a pretty fair deal for both sides and he will certainly be worth the contract even this upcoming year.

I just have a problem with some fans (the person I replied to originally) acting like this is some big win and what Carolina wanted all along.

It's obviously not but it's not really a loss either.

But tbh why weren't the canes coming in at a higher aav for eight years ? I get it'st negotiations but why would he ever sign for eight at a lower ask than his 5... those ufa years cost money

 

[StormCast]

If you look at pure AAV it is in the middle but when you include term is is most certainly a lot closer to Aho's ask. It is literally 1 million more per year + 3 less UFA years.

Which of these look the most similar:

7.5x8 vs 8.5x5 vs 9.5x5


Again like I've said, I think this is a pretty fair deal for both sides and he will certainly be worth the contract even this upcoming year.

I just have a problem with some fans (the person I replied to originally) acting like this is some big win and what Carolina wanted all along.

Without the offer sheet, the deal would have been $8.5 MM x 5.

Agreed it was pretty fair for both sides and there are some ancillary, though not intended, benefits that come in years 3-5 due to the signing bonus.

Correct, this wasn't part of a Waddell 3D chess move in which MB was the pawn. The end result may have been similar but you never want your star player signing an offer sheet so in that regard it wasn't a big win.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

It's obviously not but it's not really a loss either.

But tbh why weren't the canes coming in at a higher aav for eight years ? I get it'st negotiations but why would he ever sign for eight at a lower ask than his 5... those ufa years cost money

Ya it was a pretty shocking first offer to be honest. Insulting almost and I think if they came in with a higher AAV on that 8 year deal he might not even have signed that offersheet. He was probably thinking 'they want to give me 2 less million than I want and 3 more UFA years, this will likely not get resolved'

 

[pepperMonkey]

He could have, yes. But it also messes up the internal structure of Montreals pay scale when you do that. Lets say Kotka goes on to become almost as good by the time his ELC is up. His agent then goes and points to Aho's contract and says "we want that" (assuming Carolina doesnt match, of course).

It could also be that Bergevin didnt think he was worth more than 8.5 or roundabouts there. I havent paid attention to any of the media from the Habs end to know if he offered an explanation.

Yup, forgot about all that. I think you hit the nail on the head. I'm pretty sure that was the reasoning for the number MB came up with.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Without the offer sheet, the deal would have been $8.5 MM x 5.

Agreed it was pretty fair for both sides and there are some ancillary, though not intended, benefits that come in years 3-5 due to the signing bonus.

Correct, this wasn't part of a Waddell 3D chess move in which MB was the pawn. The end result may have been similar but you never want your star player signing an offer sheet so in that regard it wasn't a big win.

Do you think Carolina would have tried to push for a few more years, maybe meeting Aho's AAV ask. Say something like 9.5 x 6/7 years or something similar?

I know Aho wanted 5 but I didnt see any reports he wasnt willing to accept anything but 5 years.

 

[Seanaconda]

Do you think Carolina would have tried to push for a few more years, maybe meeting Aho's AAV ask. Say something like 9.5 x 6/7 years or something similar?

I know Aho wanted 5 but I didnt see any reports he wasnt willing to accept anything but 5 years.

They would have def kept pushing for more years. Who knows if aho would have caved if the offersheet didn't present itself

 

[TheFlowerist]

First of All, it did not cost MTL anything to try. So the whole, MTL was played is non-sensical. Nothing humiliating about trying.

Second, CAR despite their somewhat jubilatory remarks about how the stupidity of MTL helped them get Aho signed are fooling themselves. As the OS is forcing them into a contract, they did not wish for, else an agreement would have already been found. It practically ensures that Aho leaves CAR when he hits free Agency. 26yo 1st line centers dont grow on trees, he will receive a massive offer, unlikely to be bettered by a small market team like CAR. And even if the owner is willing to spend to the cap. Will they be competitive enough to win the cup, to justify such payroll...possible but I find it hard to believe.

Third, if MTL was really serious about Aho, that OS would have been on another level. something in the vicinity of 10 years at 11M, which you frontload massivelly(say 50M+ over 1 year), CAR, I would image, would seriousy consider letting him go as the compensation is 4 1st rounder. For MTL, it might look steep but is it? Money is obviously not an issue and the 4 1st rounders....for a 22yo 1st line center, seems fair. It's not like every 1st round pick turn into stars.

In the end, it looks more like a favor done to the agent for which you get a lottery ticket that has almost no chance of paying out. Meanwhile, CAR gets handcuffed.

Thanks for the entertainment MTL

 

[Svechhammer]

I know Aho wanted 5 but I didnt see any reports he wasnt willing to accept anything but 5 years.

I think the fact he signed an offer sheet for 5 instead of continuing to negotiate is proof enough that he wasn't willing to accept anything but 5

 

[tarheelhockey]

Do you think Carolina would have tried to push for a few more years, maybe meeting Aho's AAV ask. Say something like 9.5 x 6/7 years or something similar?

I know Aho wanted 5 but I didnt see any reports he wasnt willing to accept anything but 5 years.

Waddell was willing to drag this out if it meant getting up to 7-8 years rather than 5-6.

Whether Aho would have gone up beyond 5 is speculative, but I think most people are taking the offer sheet as evidence that he wasn't kidding around and was willing to force the situation if necessary. Meaning if Montreal doesn't offer that deal, we're looking at a significant chance of a holdout situation.

 

[Svechhammer]

Meanwhile, CAR gets handcuffed down the road.

How is this going to handcuff us? Citation needed

 

[Seanaconda]

First of All, it did not cost MTL anything to try. So the whole, MTL was played is non-sensical. Nothing humiliating about trying.

Second, CAR despite their somewhat jubilatory remarks about how the stupidity of MTL helped them get Aho signed are fooling themselves. As the OS is forcing them into a contract, they did not wish for, else they would have already found an agreement. It practically ensures that Aho leaves CAR when he hits free Agency. 26yo 1st line centers dont grow on trees, he will receive a massive offer, unlikely to be matched by a small market team like CAR. Even if the owner is willing to spend to the cap. Will they be competitive enough to win the cup, to justify such payroll...possible but I find it hard to believe.

Third, if MTL was really serious about Aho, that OS would have been on another level. something like 10 years at 11M, which you frontload massivelly(say 50M+ over 1 year), CAR, I would image, would seriousy consider letting him go as the compensation is 4 1st rounder. For MTL, it might look steep but is it? Money is obviously not an issue and the 4 1st rounders....for a 22yo 1st line center, seems fair. It's not like every 1st round pick turn into stars.

In the end, it looks more like a favor done to the agent for which you get a lottery ticket that has almost chance of paying out. Meanwhile, CAR gets handcuffed down the road.

Thanks for the entertainment MTL

This is fair but at the same time is every team offering garbage deals for their rfas cuz only a couple of them are signed so far

 

[tarheelhockey]

It practically ensures that Aho leaves CAR when he hits free Agency. 26yo 1st line centers dont grow on trees, he will receive a massive offer, unlikely to be matched by a small market team like CAR. Even if the owner is willing to spend to the cap.

What a bunch of nonsense. In no way shape or form does this contract prevent Carolina from re-upping Aho as a UFA.

Carolina's last comparable player was Eric Staal, who inked a 7-year deal starting at age 24.

 

[caniac247]

What do you expect him to say?

Why hasnt a single contract since he has taken over include signing bonuses? He is a shrew business man and they dont like handing out money right away that they dont have to.

Maybe because this is the first big RFA he's had to sign.

 

[StormCast]

Do you think Carolina would have tried to push for a few more years, maybe meeting Aho's AAV ask. Say something like 9.5 x 6/7 years or something similar?

I know Aho wanted 5 but I didnt see any reports he wasnt willing to accept anything but 5 years.

They would have tried for more term but weren't going up to $9.5 MM. He's a great player but there are lingering doubts about being able to replicate his success playing center last year, while staying healthy, and his double-digit goal droughts over each of his first 3 years.

People are quick to point to the "low ball offer" before the season but you have to remember he hadn't proven he could play C, his D hadn't advanced yet as it did this year, and he still had the maddening goal droughts. Was it low? Yes. Insulting? No.

 

[Seanaconda]

Maybe because this is the first big RFA he's had to sign.

I don't think anyone noticed when he bought the team (2018) and are just lumping him in with your old owner

 

[tarheelhockey]

I don't think anyone noticed when he bought the team (2018) and are just lumping him in with your old owner

I seriously do wonder how many of the people commenting here are just attracted by the media attention to this topic and haven't actually been up to speed on the NHL over the past year or two.

 

[Svechhammer]

They would have tried for more term but weren't going up to $9.5 MM. He's a great player but there are lingering doubts about being able to replicate his success playing center last year, while staying healthy, and his double-digit goal droughts over each of his first 3 years.

People are quick to point to the "low ball offer" before the season but you have to remember he hadn't proven he could play C, his D hadn't advanced yet as it did this year, and he still had the maddening goal droughts. Was it low? Yes. Insulting? No.

And last summer there was a popular belief around hockey that 1C was our biggest FA need because there a low chance Aho was going to effectively transition over.