Confirmed Trade: [CAR/PIT] Jake Guentzel (25% retained), Ty Smith for Michael Bunting, Ville Koivunen, Vasili Ponomarev, Cruz Lucius, 2024 cond. 1st, 2024 cond. 5th

[KrisLetAngry]

It’s hard to imagine him going back after having the experience he’s having. Still, I don’t think he they were ever going to agree on a contract. Just because he was open to talking about it doesn’t mean he’d actually sign or they would’ve ever come to an agreement on anything. They initially did have a conversation about it, sounds like. I’m sure Dubas had an idea of what Jake’s agent wanted. If you know that’s not your teams path there’s no point talking about. I doubt Jake was going to give some hometown discount to Pitts when they need to rebuild or reshuffle.

He was highly likely to be gone the whole time.

His significant other is from Pittsburgh so I do believe she wants to live there preferably.

Also the 8th year discount. Now Carolina has it.

I will say that I could stillsee him coming back but I do imagine Carolina will give him that 9 million by 7 or 8 year deal that he wants.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

It’s hard to imagine him going back after having the experience he’s having. Still, I don’t think he they were ever going to agree on a contract. Just because he was open to talking about it doesn’t mean he’d actually sign or they would’ve ever come to an agreement on anything. They initially did have a conversation about it, sounds like. I’m sure Dubas had an idea of what Jake’s agent wanted. If you know that’s not your teams path there’s no point talking about. I doubt Jake was going to give some hometown discount to Pitts when they need to rebuild or reshuffle.

He was highly likely to be gone the whole time.

Yeah, in the summer.

The issue is that it wasn't pursued beyond that, and Dubas got a handful of magic beans for his inaction.

 

[bleedgreen]

Liiga is a very weak league now compared to what it used to be.

Give me a D+1 that is producing well over a PPG and driving their team in the NCAA over a D+3 producing well in Liiga. Like it’s not even really close imo. Nadeau has a way better shot at carving out a top 6 career than Koivunen.

Well that’s certainly an interesting take.

All the arguing about the specific prospects is moot as there’s no way to know who was available in the trade and who wasn’t. I’m guessing many scouts would be more than content taking Koivunen.

 

[bleedgreen]

His significant other is from Pittsburgh so I do believe she wants to live there preferably.

Also the 8th year discount. Now Carolina has it.

I will say that I could stillsee him coming back but I do imagine Carolina will give him that 9 million by 7 or 8 year deal that he wants.

If the Canes sign Jake to an 8 year deal after being so picky about ufa’s and their contracts I may fall out of my chair. We’ll see if the 8th year matters. I don’t think the Canes will be the team that gets him in ufa. I think he’s got a place in mind whether it’s Pitts or somewhere else. He fits like a glove with the Canes but he’s going to market and one there its game on for any team in the league.

The Canes have a lot of moving parts right now. Hard to see us fitting in a huge Jake contract and keeping the rest of the team at the level it’s at. We’ll see. I’ve always been a bit of a Pens fan, they did well here. It was the right move too.

 

[KrisLetAngry]

If the Canes sign Jake to an 8 year deal after being so picky about ufa’s and their contracts I may fall out of my chair. We’ll see if the 8th year matters. I don’t think the Canes will be the team that gets him in ufa. I think he’s got a place in mind whether it’s Pitts or somewhere else. He fits like a glove with the Canes but he’s going to market and one there its game on for any team in the league.

The Canes have a lot of moving parts right now. Hard to see us fitting in a huge Jake contract and keeping the rest of the team at the level it’s at. We’ll see. I’ve always been a bit of a Pens fan, they did well here. It was the right move too.

Yes I definitely agree on how they work. Though if Guentzel shows himself as a crucial piece to the success in the playoffs. I think they have to keep him.

You are absolutely right though they may be fine with him hitting free agency. Time will tell.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

If the Canes sign Jake to an 8 year deal after being so picky about ufa’s and their contracts I may fall out of my chair. We’ll see if the 8th year matters. I don’t think the Canes will be the team that gets him in ufa. I think he’s got a place in mind whether it’s Pitts or somewhere else. He fits like a glove with the Canes but he’s going to market and one there its game on for any team in the league.

The Canes have a lot of moving parts right now. Hard to see us fitting in a huge Jake contract and keeping the rest of the team at the level it’s at. We’ll see. I’ve always been a bit of a Pens fan, they did well here. It was the right move too.

What criteria wouldn't Guentzel check off as a UFA? He's under 30, zero maintenance, durable, and a high end producer in the regular season and playoffs.

“Not even a Guentzel”?!? Like that was ever on the table? Again, it seems Pens fans have a huge disconnect with rental markets and what you should be expecting when you sell a player off.

It’s never on the table that you’re replacing the guy you lost with someone in the trade. Or even close really. Your whole concept of what these trades are doesn’t seem to be based in common sense. Despite the fact you actually got someone that fills his spot on the roster, which is pretty unheard of in these trades.

I feel you’re looking at this trade like you sent away an extended on a sweetheart deal Jake. You would’ve gotten the straight up first with that, and probably another good pick. Not better prospects I’d bet.

My assessment of any trade is whether it furthers a team's interests.

Adam f***ing Henrique - a much older, far less productive player - also on an expiring contract, returned a 1st this year. The fact that Dubas couldn't even manage that is astounding.

Bunting is a seat-filler - he's not replacing a fraction of what Guentzel brought. Nobody but Dubas thought the Pens needed more Smith and Rakell calibre wings eating up cap space.

 

[tarheelhockey]

It's a 2nd round pick unless Carolina wins 3 straight playoff rounds (An incredibly tall task in any league but especially the NHL). Idk, just don't get why we call it a conditional 1st round pick when it's a 2nd unless a very rare thing happens. And if it does its either 31 or 32.

My thoughts are as follows.

• This should be called a 2nd round pick (with a chance to conditionally become a 1st), not the other way around.
• Dubas sucks balls.

Probably because calling it a “conditional 2nd” would be more confusing/upsetting to fans if it turned into a 1st, than the other way around.

 

[SEALBound]

What criteria wouldn't Guentzel check off as a UFA? He's under 30, zero maintenance, durable, and a high end producer in the regular season and playoffs.


My assessment of any trade is whether it furthers a team's interests.

Adam f***ing Henrique - a much older, far less productive player - also on an expiring contract, returned a 1st this year. The fact that Dubas couldn't even manage that is astounding.

Bunting is a seat-filler - he's not replacing a fraction of what Guentzel brought. Nobody but Dubas thought the Pens needed more Smith and Rakell calibre wings eating up cap space.

I hate to do this to a Pens fan on the main boards, but everything you just said there is so disingenuous and insincere that I encourage other people in this thread to stop arguing with you.

Given the return of what amounts to 3 2nds, a 4th, a 5th, and a conditional 1st...I don't think there is any reasonable or productive discussion that can be had with you.

 

[Luigi Lemieux]

Jake is going to get over 10M.
He deserves it too.

I don't think he gets quite that much. I could see a Timo Meier type contract - 8.8 aav for 8 years. Granted I think Guentzel is a better player and has better numbers, but he's also two years older.

 

[SEALBound]

1. Bunting is a fine inclusion in the trade. They were not going to get another Jake in the trade - period. Any roster player included was going to be worse than Jake. However, Bunting plays a style that many Pens fans think has been missing since Hornqvist was traded. Plenty of us wanting Bunting in the off-season and were bummed that he signed in Carolina. He may not be the 40g we traded but for someone that included for cap reasons, we could have done significantly worse. Bottom line, we got a top 6 capable wing back.

2. We got a 1st round pick. Yeah, it's a conditional 1st than could be a second but still, a first round pick is on the table for us.

3. We got back two prospects that were recent 2nd round picks. Pono is NHL ready and Koivunen is PPG in the SHL at 20. The fact is, BOTH of them are who we would HOPE to draft with the late 1st you keep bitching about "not getting".

4. We got a recent 4th round pick who is PPG in the NCAA at 19. Again, someone we would HOPE to draft with the late 1st you keep bitching about not getting.

5. We got a 5th. Whatever.

 

[PensandCaps]

The best rental on the market, but that's not even the main point.

If the return was going to be that low, the Pens were better served keeping an elite winger they won't be able to replace than add mediocre prospect depth that likely won't help them much now or later.


See above.

Keep him why? season was over.

 

[Zbynek]

The return for Jake sucks and I'm not optimistic the prospect grab-bag we got amounts to anything under the Mike Sullivan and Dubas led Penguins.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

The return for Jake sucks and I'm not optimistic the prospect grab-bag we got amounts to anything under the Mike Sullivan and Dubas led Penguins.

The only way this deal works out for the Pens are total longshots. Either Guentzel re-signs with the Pens, or the post-Guentzel slide leads to a Celebrini lotto pick.

 

[Lemieuxs]

The only way this deal works out for the Pens are total longshots. Either Guentzel re-signs with the Pens, or the post-Guentzel slide leads to a Celebrini lotto pick.

Well we better start losing games.

 

[NotOpie]

PPG in the NCAA 2 years post-draft isn't great for a forward drafted in the 1st round.

Cruz Lucius was a 4th round pick who led Wisconsin in scoring as a freshman and is again leading them in scoring as a sophomore. He's definitely a magic bean, but there's some serious scoring potential there.

 

[chethejet]

Dubas was hamstrung here as Jake with a sign and trade now opens up far more teams as the costs are known. But I didn't like the deal for that reason. Dubas was absolutely correct in his view. Jake was not going to sign a deal unless he, Dubas, broke the bank. Also Pens have more info that any team trading for him. Nor are they going to disclose what they know and believe. Jake is OK physically but he will break down here as he plays. Sooner or later that shoulder will go. Pens have options is what Dubas said. Now ith a couple promising young forwards, a RD and a nice pick, That is a start to the rebuild which is happening now as Geno, and others are slowing.

 

[SEALBound]

It's a difference of opinion, and one that most objective observers agree with. You need links?

No, I don't need more whiny posts.

Bunting's adequate. In terms of impact, he's on a Smith/Rakell level - two guys we've been hoping to move on from because they really don't move the needle for their price tag.

And he was likely added for cap reasons. He also provides different elements that Smith and Rakell do not. We've been yearning for net front presence all year and now that we have someone, you want to whine.

We got a 2nd round pick that turns into the absolute latest 1st round pick if everything goes right.

It could still be a 1st round pick. The 1st that Henrique and Carrick got could just as easily be the 32nd OV but you seem to give that MASSIVE value. You can't even keep how you judge picks straight. Again...whining for the sake of whining.

By your standard, Ty Smith is "NHL ready" too.

Yes, I would absolutely say that Smith is "NHL ready" given the fact he's played 124 games over the last four seasons.

Koivunen is playing in the Liiga, not SHL.

None of these players are who I'd hope to draft with a late 1st. That would be more like Nadeau, who Carolina kept.

PPG in the NCAA 2 years post-draft isn't great for a forward drafted in the 1st round.

Liiga and the SHL are comparable leagues.

Any time a sophomore goes PPG in both freshman and sophomore leagues, it is good, especially for a fourth-round pick.

Nadeau is Carolina's top forward prospect. Show me a TDL move for a rental where a team has given up their #1 ranked forward prospect? I'll wait.

Henrique's return was much better value, relative to the difference in quality of player. He's not in Guentzel's stratosphere. But he got quality over quantity, which was Dubas's stated goal.

No it wasn't. And Anaheim gave up Carrick as well who is another bottom 6 roster player. It wasn't Henrique for a low 1st as you seem to think. It was Henrique+Carrick for a LATE 1st and a 5th. I'm sorry, if you're somehow saying that a 1st+5th > Bunting, 3 prospects, 1st/2nd, 5th then I have no idea what to tell you. But if you think you're so right, start a poll and seek HF's opinion.

A late 1st is better than roster player, 2 2nd round prospects, a 4th round prospect, a 1st that has the potential to be exactly where the other 1st will be, and a 5th. JFC. I've read some stupid whiny shit on this site, but this may make the "HOF of Dumb"

Your assessment of the pieces we got is off. They are not 1st round calibre - and any objective article on the trade has said as much, and I can flood you with links panning the Pens return if you doubt it. Or maybe look at who everyone was speculating on before the deal was made and fans started rationalizing - Hint: Koivunen was not looked at as a lynchpin futures asset.

I never said they were 1st round caliber. You're moving the goal posts. The question is, did the Penguins get a good return or not, and the fact is - yes they did if you actually examine what they got. To say that a late 1st is somehow better than what they got is pure asinine. Again, whiny for the sake of being whiny.

It was a shit return for an elite winger that the Pens will not be able to replace, which makes any hope of contending again during Crosby's time much more difficult. That's calling a spade a spade.

They were never going to replace Guentzel when trading Guentzel. That was never the point nor the goal of trading him. The return they got isn't the issue, the issue is your expectations. That's not Dubas fault that some random guy on HFB arbitrarily set some random value and then whines when did didn't get it.

The team wasn't contending with Guentzel on the roster this year, so what difference does it make if they don't keep him for the rest of the year? This trade was asset management 101.

 

[Malkinstheman]

Saying you think the value is low is fine but wanting Guentzel re-signed over this return is just stupid imo. The Pens were irrelevant with Guentzel for the last 6 years so whats the point of re-signing him with the team drifting into irrelevance? Pens got a decent player and a bag full of lottery picks for a UFA. You take that any day of the week.

 

[SEALBound]

Saying you think the value is low is fine but wanting Guentzel re-signed over this return is just stupid imo. The Pens were irrelevant with Guentzel for the last 6 years so whats the point of re-signing him with the team drifting into irrelevance? Pens got a decent player and a bag full of lottery picks for a UFA. You take that any day of the week.

I would advocate a scenario where Dubas trades one or both of Smith and Rakell and uses that money to resign Jake. Highly doubt they want to move Rust and I think Smith and Rakell are the most likely to go. I think with Jake back and Bunting added, you add one more young guy or UFA to shake things up. Or you take back another player in a larger trade. Something like:

Guentzel-Crosby-Rust
Bunting-Malkin-Stephenson/Arvidsson/TT

I think we can all acknowledge that for all of the Penguins woes, Jake wasn't one of them.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

No, I don't need more whiny posts.

My posts stick to the argument, like an adult.

And he was likely added for cap reasons. He also provides different elements that Smith and Rakell do not. We've been yearning for net front presence all year and now that we have someone, you want to whine.

No shit. We were doing Carolina a favour.

I'd like another good defensive LHD too, but I wouldn't trade Crosby for one plus a handful of scratch tickets.

It could still be a 1st round pick. The 1st that Henrique and Carrick got could just as easily be the 32nd OV but you seem to give that MASSIVE value. You can't even keep how you judge picks straight. Again...whining for the sake of whining.

No, I give it demonstrably better qualitative value than the pick we got.

A surefire 1st rounder that could be as high as the mid 1st is a lot better than 2nd rounder that could be as high as the very last pick in the 1st.

Yes, I would absolutely say that Smith is "NHL ready" given the fact he's played 124 games over the last four seasons.

Liiga and the SHL are comparable leagues.

So Smith adds value on our end, then.

Liiga is the league Koivunen plays in, and its a lesser league than the SHL.

Any time a sophomore goes PPG in both freshman and sophomore leagues, it is good, especially for a fourth-round pick.

Yep, it is good for a 4th round pick.

It is not what you hope for from a 1st round pick.

Nadeau is Carolina's top forward prospect. Show me a TDL move for a rental where a team has given up their #1 ranked forward prospect? I'll wait.

Show me a better player than Guentzel dealt at the deadline.

No it wasn't. And Anaheim gave up Carrick as well who is another bottom 6 roster player. It wasn't Henrique for a low 1st as you seem to think. It was Henrique+Carrick for a LATE 1st and a 5th. I'm sorry, if you're somehow saying that a 1st+5th > Bunting, 3 prospects, 1st/2nd, 5th then I have no idea what to tell you. But if you think you're so right, start a poll and seek HF's opinion.

Again, relative to the calibre of player dealt, Anaheim did much better than Pittsburgh did for Guentzel.
There's no shortage of trade grades for deadline deals out there supporting that. Have you not seen them?

A late 1st is better than roster player, 2 2nd round prospects, a 4th round prospect, a 1st that has the potential to be exactly where the other 1st will be, and a 5th. JFC. I've read some stupid whiny shit on this site, but this may make the "HOF of Dumb"

You have misunderstood.

I never said they were 1st round caliber. You're moving the goal posts. The question is, did the Penguins get a good return or not, and the fact is - yes they did if you actually examine what they got. To say that a late 1st is somehow better than what they got is pure asinine. Again, whiny for the sake of being whiny.

You said, and I quote:

The fact is, BOTH of them (Koivunen and Ponomarev) are who we would HOPE to draft with the late 1st you keep bitching about "not getting".

4. We got a recent 4th round pick (Cruz Lucius) who is PPG in the NCAA at 19. Again, someone we would HOPE to draft with the late 1st you keep bitching about not getting

Did you already forget that?

They were never going to replace Guentzel when trading Guentzel. That was never the point nor the goal of trading him. The return they got isn't the issue, the issue is your expectations. That's not Dubas fault that some random guy on HFB arbitrarily set some random value and then whines when did didn't get it.

The team wasn't contending with Guentzel on the roster this year, so what difference does it make if they don't keep him for the rest of the year? This trade was asset management 101.

My expectations were right in line with Dubas' stated objectives.

He said he wanted quality over quantity. He did the opposite of that.

He said he wanted both to build the Pens for the future and the present. Instead, he made the Penguins a much worse team in the present/near future by dealing a scoring winger he will not be able to replace, and failed to secure any premium young assets to move the needle going forward.

The asset management here was pathetic. If contenders weren't backing up the Brinks truck for Guentzel, he should have re-signed him like Poile did with Forsberg last year. They got rid of actual dead weight in Johansen last off-season, now they're back in the playoffs - and that is a team that had less to work with than the Pens.

 

[Uncle Scrooge]

Dubas didn't even offer a deal. He was competing with nobody, he simply didn't prioritize it.

Who exactly are the Pens using cap space on in FA?

I’ve no idea but I doubt they’re looking to sign any big money players to a long-term deal.

What I was mostly talking about is the cap space you want to have when rebuilding so you can weaponize it by taking cap dumps etc. for high picks if/when those opportunities arise.

If the Pens are going to be a cap team next season, they're likely just going for guys on short-term deals or trading for younger players. I think the plan is to ice a respectable team for the vets for a little while longer (unless they sit down with the vets and agree to trades), then blow it up. And by respectable I mean a team that just has a chance to compete for a playoff spot. I don't think there's any delusion about contending.

 

[Unsustainable]

Guentzel - Aho - Jarvis

This line just complements each other out there, we need to lock them both up for 8 years, that line just clicks.

 

[66-30-33]

Soon Jake plays his old team...4 goals?

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

I’ve no idea but I doubt they’re looking to sign any big money players to a long-term deal.

What I was mostly talking about is the cap space you want to have when rebuilding so you can weaponize it by taking cap dumps etc. for high picks if/when those opportunities arise.

If the Pens are going to be a cap team next season, they're likely just going for guys on short-term deals or trading for younger players. I think the plan is to ice a respectable team for the vets for a little while longer (unless they sit down with the vets and agree to trades), then blow it up. And by respectable I mean a team that just has a chance to compete for a playoff spot. I don't think there's any delusion about contending.

Half-assed approach if I've ever heard one. Unfortunate end to Crosby's career.

 

[trellaine201]

So why do teams take a chance when Guentzel could just as easy go back to Pitt? Carolina must have had initial talks on an extension and guarantee he will re sign.