Confirmed Trade: [CAR/PIT] Jake Guentzel (25% retained), Ty Smith for Michael Bunting, Ville Koivunen, Vasili Ponomarev, Cruz Lucius, 2024 cond. 1st, 2024 cond. 5th

[Dipsy Doodle]

So Guentzel didn't want to go circa the trade deadline, but he was also mad that Dubas didn't make him feel valued?

I didn't say Guentzel was mad at all, I said the calculation changes when an org doesn't offer a deal then trades you.

What part of my post seemed unreasonable to you?

 

[Chrispy]

Koivunen does not have a good chance at being a good scoring line winger. He has a chance, if everything breaks right, at some point becoming some kind of top 6 winger, but that's not the same thing at all. We have a lot of top 6 wingers now, but Rust's the only good one...and not a very good first option either.

What is your list of prospects with a "good chance at being a good scoring line winger"?

Koivunen probably has as good a chance at that as any prospect in Carolina's system. Nadeau was a 1st round pick vs a 2nd, but he's only played NCAA so far. Unger Sorum looked good at camp, but Koivunen has played much better with Karpat than FUS has at Leskans.

I think Koivunen has that ceiling and he's produced the most in a pro league of any of Carolina's forward prospects. The forward prospects for Carolina are very much opinion as to what order you put them in. You can probably throw Morrow where you feel in that list as well.

Carolina's prospect pool is Nikishin and then a number of good prospects.

 

[KrisLetAngry]

The Pens got five assets for two to four months of a player. A roster player, three second round prospects, and an additional 2nd that could turn into a first is a damn good haul for not coming with an extension to Carolina, especially when you could potentially get the player back after the season.

Yea I do not know why some Pens fans (minority not a ton of them) and other teams fans feel we got fleeced.

It was a great trade for both teams

I could maybe see in an alternate universe we get a top prospect + Bunting but no 2nd and no other prospects.

That's the only other avenue.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

With all due respect, why would Guentzel want to go back? The Pens are not going to be a contender for a while and his skills would just be absolutely wasted there. Sid and Malkin are probably retiring in a year or 2 and then there's really nothing worth being around for.

He's better off making a name for himself elsewhere and proving he didn't need to play in their shadow to be good.

My argument is that he almost certainly wouldn't...now.

But as my post earlier showed, everything suggests he'd have liked to stay if the Pens wanted to pay him market value. They didn't.

 

[SEALBound]

I didn't say Guentzel was mad at all, I said the calculation changes when an org doesn't offer a deal then trades you.

What part of my post seemed unreasonable to you?

To be fair, Dubas went to Jake's house and talked to him about being traded. We have no idea what was discussed there.

It's not like Jake woke up on Friday morning, opened twitter, and was shocked to learn he was traded.

For all we know, Dubas and Jake could have opened the door to "go play for CAR/Whoever, and then we can revisit a deal on July 1st".

 

[Finlandia WOAT]

What part of my post seemed unreasonable to you?

The part where you claim Guentzel didn't want to leave circa the trade deadline, then claim that Dubas not negotiating before the trade deadline made Guentzel feel undervalued.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

I’d say Koivunen has a 25% chance to be a top 6 wing. That’s pretty good.

on the bolded- says the grown man throwing a fit that his team traded Jake Guentzel lmao. Can’t even save it for a Crosby level player haha

And what's the odds of being a good top 6 wing? Not even a Guentzel level player, but Rust. 5%? And that's the best asset we got?

There's no "fit" here except the one you're manufacturing. Just a difference of opinion you can't seem to tolerate.

 

[AhosDatsyukian]

Opinion hasn't changed since the trade:

Pens got fleeced.

Deserved a much better return for what Guentzel brings a team than a grab bag of 2nd rounders. Should've re-signed him instead.

nah, they got some really really solid prospects that it hurt the Canes to let go. win/win trade in my view

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

The part where you claim Guentzel didn't want to leave circa the trade deadline, then claim that Dubas not negotiating before the trade deadline made Guentzel feel undervalued.

Read what I posted, with links. Nothing suggests he wanted out.

After that, I speculated about the odds of him returning based on the circumstances and historical precedent.

How many times can you recall that a player has been dealt at the deadline, then re-signed with the team that dealt him in the offseason? Recchi comes to mind. Who else?

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

What is your list of prospects with a "good chance at being a good scoring line winger"?

Koivunen probably has as good a chance at that as any prospect in Carolina's system. Nadeau was a 1st round pick vs a 2nd, but he's only played NCAA so far. Unger Sorum looked good at camp, but Koivunen has played much better with Karpat than FUS has at Leskans.

I think Koivunen has that ceiling and he's produced the most in a pro league of any of Carolina's forward prospects. The forward prospects for Carolina are very much opinion as to what order you put them in. You can probably throw Morrow where you feel in that list as well.

Carolina's prospect pool is Nikishin and then a number of good prospects.

Nadeau would have been a better option, as a recent first rounder who's produced well in his first post-draft season.

Still not ideal for Guentzel, but better than what they got.

 

[Chrispy]

Nadeau would have been a better option, as a recent first rounder who's produced well in his first post-draft season.

Still not ideal for Guentzel, but better than what they got.

Does NCAA production translate better to NHL play than Liiga production?

It can't just be about the difference between pick 30 and pick 51. That's less than a round.

 

[Finlandia WOAT]

Read what I posted, with links. Nothing suggests he wanted out

Then you can just re-sign him in the offseason

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Does NCAA production translate better to NHL play than Liiga production?

It can't just be about the difference between pick 30 and pick 51. That's less than a round.

In a post-draft year vs. 3rd year post-draft?

I'd go with the former, especially considering the production skews more toward goals.

Then you can just re-sign him in the offseason

You're deliberately ignoring the rest of my post.

 

[Finlandia WOAT]

You're deliberately ignoring the rest of my post.

I just have a hard time wrapping my head around your insistence that Guentzel did not want to leave, when, if true, he could just go back to Pittsburgh in 3.5 months.

 

[Uncle Scrooge]

If you trade Guentzel for Bunting, you are not truly trying to stay competitive for the next 2 years, whatever Dubas says.

The return they got sucked - they absolutely are in a position to pass on a mess of prospects with CEILINGS of bottom 6/top 6 3rd wheels if they truly wanted to compete for the rest of Crosby's time as a Penguin.

I just don't get what keeping Guentzel accomplishes this year?

Again, chances are he wouldn't re-sign anyway and spend the rest of his career on a sinking ship. Letting him go for nothing is bad asset management.

Edit: okay you posted some stuff regarding Guentzel's love for Pittsburgh. And I'm going to say, that matters 0% when the trade deadline actually hits and good teams start offering contracts. Happens every year.

And the teams play this year didn't warrant signing a player on a huge deal. Why would you do that when you know the direction of the team. Cap space has to be the Pens biggest weapon not too long from here and Guentzel eating ~9M from that for many years is not smart.

If the Pens had the option to sign Guentzel for 2 years? Then yeah, sure I guess. But that's fantasy world stuff.

 

[Peasy]

Does NCAA production translate better to NHL play than Liiga production?

It can't just be about the difference between pick 30 and pick 51. That's less than a round.

Liiga is a very weak league now compared to what it used to be.

Give me a D+1 that is producing well over a PPG and driving their team in the NCAA over a D+3 producing well in Liiga. Like its not even really close imo. Nadeau has a way better shot at carving out a top 6 career than Koivunen.

 

[bleedgreen]

Ask Joe Pavelski. High IQ players typically age well since theyre not dependent on wheels. I'm confident in Guentzel being worth the contract he gets for the duration of Crosby's run in Pittsburgh, and tradeable afterward.

In terms of consistency, you're not going to get a much better bet at wing than Guentzel in FA. Which, again, is why trading him for a collection of middling prospects isn't a prudent move if you genuinely have designs on competing, which Dubas has gone on record to say. He also said prior to the deadline that he would prioritize quality over quantity in a Guentzel deal, which also came up short.

Lol so all smart players are now Pavelsko as they age? Maybe on top of the smarts he got lucky by never getting a truly nasty injury?

Canes fans don’t think this was quantity of quality at all, it’s an uneducated take.

 

[3074326]

nvm

 

[bleedgreen]

And what's the odds of being a good top 6 wing? Not even a Guentzel level player, but Rust. 5%? And that's the best asset we got?

There's no "fit" here except the one you're manufacturing. Just a difference of opinion you can't seem to tolerate.

“Not even a Guentzel”?!? Like that was ever on the table? Again, it seems Pens fans have a huge disconnect with rental markets and what you should be expecting when you sell a player off.

It’s never on the table that you’re replacing the guy you lost with someone in the trade. Or even close really. Your whole concept of what these trades are doesn’t seem to be based in common sense. Despite the fact you actually got someone that fills his spot on the roster, which is pretty unheard of in these trades.

I feel you’re looking at this trade like you sent away an extended on a sweetheart deal Jake. You would’ve gotten the straight up first with that, and probably another good pick. Not better prospects I’d bet.

 

[DesertPenguin]

Yea I do not know why some Pens fans (minority not a ton of them) and other teams fans feel we got fleeced.

It was a great trade for both teams

I could maybe see in an alternate universe we get a top prospect + Bunting but no 2nd and no other prospects.

That's the only other avenue.

The more I reflect on this trade the happier I am with it. It just didn't include any of the names people were pumping up before the trade happened, so folks automatically assumed we got fleeced.

Bunting has fit in well as the Kunitz type player we have been missing, Pomomarev should challenge for a bottom 6 C role down the stretch here and next seasin, and Koivunen is trending to be a real good player for us in the future. The pick and additional prospect are nice too.

Now Dubas, go re-sign Jake in the offseason

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

I just have a hard time wrapping my head around your insistence that Guentzel did not want to leave, when, if true, he could just go back to Pittsburgh in 3.5 months.

Attitudes can change when a GM doesn't make you a contract offer all season, then trades you, then you have new experiences with different team.

What part of that is hard to understand?

 

[KrisLetAngry]

The more I reflect on this trade the happier I am with it. It just didn't include any of the names people were pumping up before the trade happened, so folks automatically assumed we got fleeced.

Bunting has fit in well as the Kunitz type player we have been missing, Pomomarev should challenge for a bottom 6 C role down the stretch here and next seasin, and Koivunen is trending to be a real good player for us in the future. The pick and additional prospect are nice too.

Now Dubas, go re-sign Jake in the offseason

Yes my initial reaction is what the hrll we do not have a future bona-fide top line player here.

But then really looking into it I call this trade Bunting a 3rd wheel on a top 6 line (nothing wrong with that) + 4 2nds.

That for a rental we can not complain about.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Edit: okay you posted some stuff regarding Guentzel's love for Pittsburgh. And I'm going to say, that matters 0% when the trade deadline actually hits and good teams start offering contracts. Happens every year.

And the teams play this year didn't warrant signing a player on a huge deal. Why would you do that when you know the direction of the team. Cap space has to be the Pens biggest weapon not too long from here and Guentzel eating ~9M from that for many years is not smart.

If the Pens had the option to sign Guentzel for 2 years? Then yeah, sure I guess. But that's fantasy world stuff.

Dubas didn't even offer a deal. He was competing with nobody, he simply didn't prioritize it.

Who exactly are the Pens using cap space on in FA?

 

[bleedgreen]

Attitudes can change when a GM doesn't make you a contract offer all season, then trades you, then you have new experiences with different team.

What part of that is hard to understand?

It’s hard to imagine him going back after having the experience he’s having. Still, I don’t think he they were ever going to agree on a contract. Just because he was open to talking about it doesn’t mean he’d actually sign or they would’ve ever come to an agreement on anything. They initially did have a conversation about it, sounds like. I’m sure Dubas had an idea of what Jake’s agent wanted. If you know that’s not your teams path there’s no point talking about. I doubt Jake was going to give some hometown discount to Pitts when they need to rebuild or reshuffle.

He was highly likely to be gone the whole time.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Lol so all smart players are now Pavelsko as they age? Maybe on top of the smarts he got lucky by never getting a truly nasty injury?

Canes fans don’t think this was quantity of quality at all, it’s an uneducated take.

Wait and see.

UFAs are almost exclusively in their late 20s, and teams break the bank on long term deals for them every year. Guentzel's a better bet than most.