Post-Game Talk: caps sharks/election

[Dream Big]

Are the Caps line changes as crisp as they usually are?

How much do laggers on the change affect play?

 

[Chukcha]

i'll be happy if they get a loser point

 

[bur and 666 others]

we are so slow

 

[Dream Big]

See you next game. Time for politics.

 

[bur and 666 others]

winnik is playing safe lol at the end istead of trying to go on rush.

 

[bur and 666 others]

to be play the trotz style we need to be perfect and that aren't happing against good and/or speedy teams.

meantime, pits with a lucky goal. why can't we get lucky goals? coz we are sloooow

 

[troyerlaw]

Not very impressive

 

[txpd]

3 pages of gdt? can we stop with the gdt's? they are past their freshness date.

and....kuzy? burt? orlov? offense?

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

to be play the trotz style we need to be perfect and that aren't happing against good and/or speedy teams.

meantime, pits with a lucky goal. why can't we get lucky goals? coz we are sloooow

But the Sharks are not even a fast team, we're faster IMO. For some reason we can just never beat these guys, and that goes beyond Trotz and his system. Historically, the Caps have a terrible record against SJ.

They were on a losing streak, we were on a winning streak. They were going to win a game at some point and we were gonna lose one at some point. Both happened at the same time, let's move on now. They went to the SCF last year, so its not like we lost to a bad team.

 

[Capsman]

we are so slow

Yet we have some cast skaters.

 

[Langway]

It's not so much speed but cohesion and decision-making. The Sharks can keep up and defend anyone. They've proven it. Every really strong team can do that so the question becomes what is Washington's advantage? It can't be "structure." Structure in itself only keeps it close, it isn't ultimately decisive.

Until Trotz and the rest clue into the next layer of execution that needs to be in place on top of their defensive foundation they're not going to be ready for prime time. They have plenty of time to figure it out over the course of the season but historically they've had plenty of time to figure out and haven't.

 

[twabby]

I find it kind of hard to care about hockey right now, but it seems like part of the issue was not being able to generate offense from the backend tonight. Alzner and Niskanen are just not good enough in transition compared to guys like Burns, Letang, Hedman, etc. If that is the top pairing, they need more offensively.

 

[txpd]

I find it kind of hard to care about hockey right now, but it seems like part of the issue was not being able to generate offense from the backend tonight. Alzner and Niskanen are just not good enough in transition compared to guys like Burns, Letang, Hedman, etc. If that is the top pairing, they need more offensively.

please. Alzner and Niskanen? Where is yer boy Orlov? 2pts this season. 0 goals. Where is Kuzy? 1 goal.

Alzner and Niskanen?

 

[ovikovy817]

Wow, I think guys you need to calm down. Yeah we lost this one, but again, beaten by a weird deflection. Caps had a lot of chances, the only big minus was that we couldn't score a goal.

Orlov maybe had his best game of the year, Williams was good too. The "weakest" 3rd line possible, had some good opportunities too, and they were playing against Sharks top line.

 

[Revelation]

please. Alzner and Niskanen? Where is yer boy Orlov? 2pts this season. 0 goals. Where is Kuzy? 1 goal.

Alzner and Niskanen?

Alzner/Niskanen is just not a cup contending top pairing. You need a Doughty/Keith/Hedman/Letang/Burns type offensive dynamo. They're an ace defensive 2nd pairing that is solid in transition in the vein of Vlasic-Braun but that's not enough when you simply need to outscore high end teams.

Carlson is the closest we have to that level of defenseman. We should cast our lot with Alzner-Carlson as the top 25 minite pairing and then figure out the best combination of Orpik/Schmidt/Orlov/Niskanen assuming we're not bringing in anyone else. Orlov-Niskanen looks like it would fit together better than Orlov-Carlson. It would be pretty similar to Dumolin-Daley (Niskanen=Dumolin and Orlov=Daley stylistically)

 

[txpd]

Alzner/Niskanen is just not a cup contending top pairing. You need a Doughty/Keith/Hedman/Letang/Burns type offensive dynamo. They're an ace defensive 2nd pairing that is solid in transition in the vein of Vlasic-Braun but that's not enough when you simply need to outscore high end teams.

Carlson is the closest we have to that level of defenseman. We should cast our lot with Alzner-Carlson as the top 25 minite pairing and then figure out the best combination of Orpik/Schmidt/Orlov/Niskanen assuming we're not bringing in anyone else. Orlov-Niskanen looks like it would fit together better than Orlov-Carlson. It would be pretty similar to Dumolin-Daley (Niskanen=Dumolin and Orlov=Daley stylistically)

Alzner and Niskanen are a shut down pair. Not a top pair. Alzner got burned by the deflection that he played pretty well from the replays I saw.

Carlson is a true #1 but is apparently slowed by an injury right now. I would let that play out.

Meanwhile Orlov is getting pp time and not doing anything with it and his es scoring has been almost nil. He really needs to step it up.

 

[Raikkonen]

Meanwhile Orlov is getting pp time and not doing anything with it and his es scoring has been almost nil. He really needs to step it up.

Wasn't Orlov so good at ESP/60 being 3rd pair Dman? Aren't our 3rd pair dmen good statistically now too? Maybe there is something meaningful like QoC?

I mean, maybe ppg stats don't tell the whole story? Idk

 

[twabby]

Alzner and Niskanen are a shut down pair. Not a top pair. Alzner got burned by the deflection that he played pretty well from the replays I saw.

Carlson is a true #1 but is apparently slowed by an injury right now. I would let that play out.

Meanwhile Orlov is getting pp time and not doing anything with it and his es scoring has been almost nil. He really needs to step it up.

They are probably the top pair now (and last season for sure), unless you think Orlov/Carlson is the top pair. But as constructed, this is not a top pair that can lead to any sort of dynamic transition game or offensive contribution.

Alzner got burned by an unlucky break last night, and while in isolation it's a bad break you tend to get bad breaks against you when you're buried in your own zone. Unfortunately, Alzner has been the worst on the team at even strength in terms of shot attempt %, scoring chance %, and expected goal % and it's not even close:

Player | CF% | FF% | SC% | xGF%
Brooks Orpik|52.88%|53.20%|64.68%|60.59%
Dmitry Orlov|53.37%|51.10%|59.70%|52.55%
John Carlson|53.95%|51.79%|59.47%|52.60%
Karl Alzner|48.16%|46.04%|38.20%|46.45%
Matt Niskanen|53.26%|50.92%|41.95%|50.70%
Nate Schmidt|52.79%|52.17%|67.69%|60.96%

Do you spot the outlier there? Given that he has played so much with Niskanen you would think Niskanen would have similar on-ice stats if were simply a matter of deployment, but it's clear that Alzner has been dragging the pair down this season. In fact, in terms of deployment they are very similar to Orlov/Carlson (with Orpik/Schmidt getting the easiest deployment so far) so it's hard to excuse those poor numbers as being a result of abnormally difficult deployment.

Maybe he's still recovering from his surgery in the offseason, but it's clear to me Alzner isn't playing well this season (for instance, think back to the Rangers game where Jimmy Vesey blew by him for a goal). He's benefited from some lucky shooting and save percentages which has made him a plus player this year, but as has been shown numerous times in the past a high PDO isn't likely to last.

Orlov's not putting up the points but he's tilting the ice toward the offensive end and contributing in transition all while having similar zone starts and quality of competition as Alzner.

At this point I'd flip Alzner and Orlov and see what happens. Worst case is the new pairings stink and they go back to the status quo a few games later. Best case is the new pairings find good chemistry and make the team even better.

 

[billcook]

I agree with twabby.


Schmidt-Orpik is amazing third pairing.

Alzner-Carlson is best first pairing this team could have.

Niskanen is probably better fit for Orlov (Carlson is too slow to be focusing on defense on his pairing).

 

[txpd]

That entirely depends on what assignment you have in mind for Alzner-Carlson.
Alzner is the d you want against the opposing first line. That will by its definition force Carlson to be more defensive. He is the team's best offense producing defenseman.

The reason to have him on a non-shut down pair is to get him on the ice with offensive players in offensive situations. zone starts as a for instance. On the shutdown pair he gets more d zone starts and another pair gets to offensive zone starts.

I don't want to rely on Orlov for that. So far against better competition in the top 4 he is doing next to nothing(1 esp is as close to nothing as you can get)

My view is that Alzner and Niskanen are the best shutdown pair. I would put them on the oppo first line and the d zone starts. I would put Orpik back with Carlson for attack situations. I would put Orlov and Schmidt back together for a high minutes 3rd pair.

I am fine keeping it the way it is until Carlson gets back to 100% and give Orlov plenty of time to get his game going.

 

[txpd]

Alzner got burned by an unlucky break last night, and while in isolation it's a bad break you tend to get bad breaks against you when you're buried in your own zone. Unfortunately, Alzner has been the worst on the team at even strength in terms of shot attempt %, scoring chance %, and expected goal % and it's not even close:.

Alzner is up for a contract and pending ufa. Go ahead and trade him for a good skating puck mover then? Trouba? If he is that bad, I mean.

 

[Stewie G]

3 pages of gdt? can we stop with the gdt's? they are past their freshness date.

and....kuzy? burt? orlov? offense?

I scanned the site rules and didn't see any arbitrary threshold for post quantity or "freshness" for types of threads. If you don't find them worthwhile, there is an easy solution....

 

[twabby]

That entirely depends on what assignment you have in mind for Alzner-Carlson.
Alzner is the d you want against the opposing first line. That will by its definition force Carlson to be more defensive. He is the team's best offense producing defenseman.

The reason to have him on a non-shut down pair is to get him on the ice with offensive players in offensive situations. zone starts as a for instance. On the shutdown pair he gets more d zone starts and another pair gets to offensive zone starts.

I don't want to rely on Orlov for that. So far against better competition in the top 4 he is doing next to nothing(1 esp is as close to nothing as you can get)

My view is that Alzner and Niskanen are the best shutdown pair. I would put them on the oppo first line and the d zone starts. I would put Orpik back with Carlson for attack situations. I would put Orlov and Schmidt back together for a high minutes 3rd pair.

I am fine keeping it the way it is until Carlson gets back to 100% and give Orlov plenty of time to get his game going.

Alzner and Carlson would be the #2 pairing at this point. Neither is playing particularly well and perhaps both are still injured or recovering from an injury, so why not reduce their minutes? Carlson would stay as the #1 PP guy (though it's not like he's doing much on the PP, I'd consider a change very soon) and Alzner as the #1 PK guy, but in terms of even strength minutes I'd call them the second pairing for now, if I had my choice.

Orlov and Niskanen would be the #1 pairing. Dmitry Orlov has the second most even strength minutes of all defensemen on the team right now, behind only Niskanen. He's pretty much playing first pairing minutes against tougher quality of competition and normal zone starts (no extreme sheltering like last season) and IMO he's playing well and the stats bear it out. Are his points down? Yes, but he's still generating offense by making smooth transitions in the defensive zone and making a few plays in the offensive zone. And just from the eye-test in recent games he's looked very good. He had a few dangerous opportunities last night while the rest of the D looked lost in transition, even if they were okay in their own end.

It's worth a shot.

 

[txpd]

I scanned the site rules and didn't see any arbitrary threshold for post quantity or "freshness" for types of threads. If you don't find them worthwhile, there is an easy solution....

Its a joke Stewie. I know you like taking shots at me, but you have to appreciate sarcasm. I post in the GDT's. I haven't noticed. Do you?

 

[txpd]

Orlov and Niskanen would be the #1 pairing..

Ah...we are back to that. Orlov is a 1st pair D. Ok...I'll bite. Which of the other 3D currently in the top 4 would you leave unprotected? Lets assume the Caps are going to protect 7F's rather than 4 and can only protect 3D. If 9 is a 1 pair player, he must be protected. Carlson or Alzner?