Calder Watch & Predictions

[boredmale]

Go list me players who get one five point game a year, let alone three. And when youre done let me know how many times in the next five years Barzal will score 5+ again

It inflated his totals and its an outlier, it wont ever happen again. One five point game is insane let alone three. He wont break 70 next year and this will be a major reason why

So let's hypothetically discount his three 5 point games but at the same time for the sake for fairness discount the first 5 games this season he went pointless(because that was him getting his feet wet). That means he would have 15 less points but play 8 less games which means he would have 64 points in 71 games. If you prorate that over 82 games that would equal 74 points

 

[macleod50]

When did I say he wont improve his skillset?

So youre saying if he only scores 65 points the next two seasons, he regressed in skill? Really?

Take away Barzals three five point games and hes at 64 points. He wont be averaging a five point game a year, let alone three! He was held scoreless in 32 games this season. He is no McDavid and he will regress before he progresses. I see him as a 60-70 consistent guy with highs of 80+. Far from saying he will suck...

Your whole argument is contingent on teams figuring out on how to adjust to him. It didn't even enter into your argument that Barzal could add other elements to his game to negate the tougher defensive play (ie; needs to shoot more, since he is a pass first threat). It looks like "welp he's just overachieving until teams figure him out."

So he's going to have the dreaded sophomore slump, and have 65 points next year?

 

[Nico the Draft Riser]

Well turn those into 3 point games instead of 5 point games. He'd still be on pace to break 75 points...

Your logic just doesn't add up.

It does if you take my post-into context with my others. Thats why forums are iffy because conversations go on multiple posts but then folks, such as yourself, come quote out of context. Not bitching just saying thats how it works.

Yes if you make Barzals games 3 point games its still 73 points. But then my point still stands as to how many 3+ point games Barzal had. It was extraordinary because of Islanders offense only system and Tavares taking away team focus. Even if teams put their top pair against him it doesnt mean they are focusing him. Hell, sometimes the best shutdown defense is from forwards and im confident barzal does not face top lines everygame. Id watch to know.

Im not trying to say Barzal will not improve or will regress skillwise, thats silly. My point is Barzals season was an overachievement IMO because the Islanders are NOT a top 3 offense and they placed there this season due to Weight’s TERRIBLE system , all offense no defense. Once the Islanders come back to reality and play an actual hockey system - on top of Tavares’ likely departure - Barzals point total will come down. Though im confident he will hit 80+ again some day. Just not next year.

 

[Nico the Draft Riser]

Your whole argument is contingent on teams figuring out on how to adjust to him. It didn't even enter into your argument that Barzal could add other elements to his game to negate the tougher defensive play (ie; needs to shoot more, since he is a pass first threat). It looks like "welp he's just overachieving until teams figure him out."

So he's going to have the dreaded sophomore slump, and have 65 points next year?

Ive laid everything out there in this thread - either read it all or refrain from quoting me because im not going to restate all of my opinions for every poster too lazy to read the thread.

 

[boredmale]

My point is Barzals season was an overachievement IMO because the Islanders are NOT a top 3 offense

You are correct, they are 8th

 

[Trap Jesus]

Playmakers are usually less prone to slumps or dips in production than goal-scorers. I also don't think there's anything crazy about the shooting % he's been on the ice for.

The one thing that could inflate his numbers this year though is how insane the Islanders have been. You're talking about a team that very easily allows the most goals against in the league. I don't know how to look this up anymore, but I'd be interested to see what his production looks like when the Isles are trailing vs. when it's tied or the Islanders are ahead. I'm assuming he's been on the ice quite a bit when the Isles are pushing for a comeback.

 

[Nico the Draft Riser]

You are correct, they are 8th

8th in a season where they did nothing but focus offense

Barzal and the Islanders will have more responsibility next year and so scoring will go down

 

[boredmale]

8th in a season where they did nothing but focus offense

Barzal and the Islanders will have more responsibility next year and so scoring will go down

Since 2012/13 The Islanders have been top 10 in goals for every year but once(when they finished 16th in 2013/14)

There is also the case who is to say they don't develop a system that capitalizes off of other teams mistakes when they pushing the play int he 3rd period? As an islanders fan I seen this many times we basically push to tie a 2-1 game and the other team scores 3 easy goals in the final 10 minutes. Am I supposed to discount points like that from Brad Marchand(who for the sake of argument the Bruins feasted off of goals in the last 10 minutes of the game in all 3 games against us to run up the score)?

 

[135ace]

8th in a season where they did nothing but focus offense

Barzal and the Islanders will have more responsibility next year and so scoring will go down

Eh, but Barzal will get more ice time and opportunities in the future. I don't see him regressing. He might not have as much room to continue developing as Hischier and Keller have, but he's been an absolute beast, and we honestly don't know how much more the other 2 youngsters will develop (although with their trajectory I doubt they plateau anytime soon). Unless the Isles bring in a Hitchcock who runs a very defensive system I think Barzal will definitely be a consistent PPG+ guy.

Barzal's rookie season is really one for the history books and you shouldn't try so hard to take away from it. I get it, he's overshadowed the insane seasons that Nico and Clayton have had, but that's really not such a big deal. All 3 of these guys will be studs for a very long time. The only rookie that overachieved and has gotten a ton of undeserved praise is Boeser.

 

[SI90]

Are 3 point games ok? Just curious

It’s amazing Barzal hasn’t got the credit or even the appreciation he deserves from some on his terrific and impressive season.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

It does if you take my post-into context with my others. Thats why forums are iffy because conversations go on multiple posts but then folks, such as yourself, come quote out of context. Not *****ing just saying thats how it works.

Yes if you make Barzals games 3 point games its still 73 points. But then my point still stands as to how many 3+ point games Barzal had. It was extraordinary because of Islanders offense only system and Tavares taking away team focus. Even if teams put their top pair against him it doesnt mean they are focusing him. Hell, sometimes the best shutdown defense is from forwards and im confident barzal does not face top lines everygame. Id watch to know.

Im not trying to say Barzal will not improve or will regress skillwise, thats silly. My point is Barzals season was an overachievement IMO because the Islanders are NOT a top 3 offense and they placed there this season due to Weight’s TERRIBLE system , all offense no defense. Once the Islanders come back to reality and play an actual hockey system - on top of Tavares’ likely departure - Barzals point total will come down. Though im confident he will hit 80+ again some day. Just not next year.

So do you think Tavares is also over performing because of the system?

There are plenty of legit arguments for why a young player could regress, you just haven't made a very concrete case against Barzal.

 

[Trap Jesus]

Playmakers are usually less prone to slumps or dips in production than goal-scorers. I also don't think there's anything crazy about the shooting % he's been on the ice for.

The one thing that could inflate his numbers this year though is how insane the Islanders have been. You're talking about a team that very easily allows the most goals against in the league. I don't know how to look this up anymore, but I'd be interested to see what his production looks like when the Isles are trailing vs. when it's tied or the Islanders are ahead. I'm assuming he's been on the ice quite a bit when the Isles are pushing for a comeback.

Looked it up.

Among forwards, Barzal has the 6th highest PP TOI when trailing, where he's put up the 3rd most points: 17 points in 115.5 minutes. At even strength, he has the 10th highest TOI and the 53rd most points (14 in 461 minutes).

When leading, 76th highest PP TOI when trailing, where he's put up the 76th most points: 4 points in 59 minutes. At even strength, he has the 118th highest TOI and the 15th most points (22 in 316.5 minutes).

I guess you can partially explain it by a lot of PP TOI and production when down, but definitely nothing you can draw much of a conclusion from. He's playing a lot more when trailing at even strength, but it's actually the reverse effect where he's been far more productive when leading.

 

[Smeagoal]

Are 3 point games ok? Just curious

It’s amazing Barzal hasn’t got the credit or even the appreciation he deserves from some on his terrific and impressive season.

No!!! If he has more than 2 points in a game he's a product of Tavares, if he has any less than he should not be in conversation for Calder because ... facts...

edit: don't forget his filthy PP points murking' up that Calder trophy.

 

[wayne]

It's not even close imo, Barzal will run away with it.

 

[Nico the Draft Riser]

Are 3 point games ok? Just curious

It’s amazing Barzal hasn’t got the credit or even the appreciation he deserves from some on his terrific and impressive season.

I have given him his credit and more. Giving him credit doesnt mean I have to blindly assume he only gets better. He came in D+3, Islanders scored far more than average, Tavares may walk in which case Barzal will be used to match against and shutdown other top players (Islanders dont have a defensive minded center), he had three five point games...

I dont get how me saying he will regress next year but end up a consistent 60-70 pt guy with highs above 80 is ‘not giving him credit’. Im simply not buying into this idea that he will be a top flight player in the league.

 

[DKH]

Barzal should win but long term it's McAvoy

 

[macleod50]

Ive laid everything out there in this thread - either read it all or refrain from quoting me because im not going to restate all of my opinions for every poster too lazy to read the thread.

Yes you've laid out an awful argument that holds no water as others have stated. Congrats.

 

[Nico the Draft Riser]

Yes you've laid out an awful argument that holds no water as others have posted. Congrats.

If you think i care what others think about my argument youre sadly mistakened. I put my points out there, what you do with them is your own business

We will see who looks more dumb come next year

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Are 3 point games ok? Just curious

It’s amazing Barzal hasn’t got the credit or even the appreciation he deserves from some on his terrific and impressive season.

He's a product of Eberle.

 

[SI90]

He's a product of Eberle.

That’s the most reasonable statement I’ve actually seen here lol


Eberle is filthy. Made a lot of isles fans eat crow.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

That’s the most reasonable statement I’ve actually seen here lol


Eberle is filthy. Made a lot of isles fans eat crow.

Has anyone checked on PWJunior to make sure he's okay? He might need someone to perform the Heimlich on him.

 

[Riseonfire]

I did say it wasnt anything to be worried about (not the post you quoted though, it was a singular post)

My point simply was folks make Barzal out to be some wizard who can get himself open whenever he wants - my point was simply that his point totals were more from the three five point games and that he at one point went on a streak of like 12 games with points. SO lets see if he can do it again but like I also said, sophomore slumps happen for a reason and thats because thats when teams fully have adapted after enough footage and game time. The max a team has played Barzal this year is four times.

How many games this season have you seen of Barzal? Because almost every night (excluding about 8 or so games) he's making chances and flying around like no one else. There are games where he has zero points but should have had at least 3 assists had someone else not flubbed a shot.

You are using points to say he does not get open whenever he wants (That rookie may end the season PPG lol).

The Isles fans have seen every one of his games. He gets open and makes space pretty much whenever he wants.
He is a wizard, Harry.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

If you think i care what others think about my argument youre sadly mistakened. I put my points out there, what you do with them is your own business

We will see who looks more dumb come next year

He wont break 70 next year

Are you hedging your bets by saying next year or do you mean in Barzal's career? If you were hedging, you were very wise to do so. I know of very few 20 year old rookie Centers that are a PPG after 79 games, to have a career year in their first NHL season. If anything, Barzal is more likely to improve rather than go backward in his career.

 

[SI90]

Has anyone checked on PWJunior to make sure he's okay? He might need someone to perform the Heimlich on him.

He’s good!!! He’s embraced Eberle 100%!!!

 

[AmericanDream]

congrats Kyle Connor - 30th goal tonight!!! Leads ALL rookies in goals scored! Hell of a year for the kid, quietly doing this