JawandaPuck
Lost Art of Dynasty
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Article from Sportsnet predicting OHL snipers using advanced stats:
http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/juni...-snipers-best-shot-becoming-nhl-goal-scorers/
Marner doesn't actually rank as high as one would think....here is a snippet on Marner (and a few others):
"Elite producers like Mitch Marner, Dylan Strome, Michael Dal Colle and Travis Konecny fall a bit further down the list than might be expected. They will take some time to recognize that a lot of what they've gotten away with in junior won't work as effectively in the NHL, an adjustment that is part of the natural transition to the next level."
Article from Sportsnet predicting OHL snipers using advanced stats:
http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/juni...-snipers-best-shot-becoming-nhl-goal-scorers/
Marner doesn't actually rank as high as one would think....here is a snippet on Marner (and a few others):
"Elite producers like Mitch Marner, Dylan Strome, Michael Dal Colle and Travis Konecny fall a bit further down the list than might be expected. They will take some time to recognize that a lot of what they've gotten away with in junior won't work as effectively in the NHL, an adjustment that is part of the natural transition to the next level."
yeah, and Marner and Strome are both more playmakers than snipers. It also doesn't even try to balance out for the equivalent of shots taken. Dvorak isn't gonna shoot the percentage he does consistently. If we fully repeated the season I doubt he shoots 42.5 from in close again.Yes absolutely, they will need to adjust to the NHL, but there is one fundamental piece they missed here: Dvorak and Debrincat.
Who do they have feeding them the puck into the high danger areas- that's right Marner and Strome. It's easier to score from NHL areas when you have NHL passers.
Article from Sportsnet predicting OHL snipers using advanced stats:
http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/juni...-snipers-best-shot-becoming-nhl-goal-scorers/
Marner doesn't actually rank as high as one would think....here is a snippet on Marner (and a few others):
"Elite producers like Mitch Marner, Dylan Strome, Michael Dal Colle and Travis Konecny fall a bit further down the list than might be expected. They will take some time to recognize that a lot of what they've gotten away with in junior won't work as effectively in the NHL, an adjustment that is part of the natural transition to the next level."
Article from Sportsnet predicting OHL snipers using advanced stats:
http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/juni...-snipers-best-shot-becoming-nhl-goal-scorers/
Marner doesn't actually rank as high as one would think....here is a snippet on Marner (and a few others):
"Elite producers like Mitch Marner, Dylan Strome, Michael Dal Colle and Travis Konecny fall a bit further down the list than might be expected. They will take some time to recognize that a lot of what they've gotten away with in junior won't work as effectively in the NHL, an adjustment that is part of the natural transition to the next level."
This is interesting, but there are a lot of potential flaws in his methodology.
The most glaring one to me is that he is scaling shooting percentages according to *average* shooters in both leagues. These top players are huge outliers in the OHL, and will likely be outliers at the NHL level too. Marner's SH% will not be 17%+ like it is in the OHL, but there's no way it's going to fall to 5-6% as this article implies.
Secondly, it doesn't look like he's accounting for games played. Marner only played 57 OHL games this season. If you pro-rate to 82 games those 12 goals become 18, the same as Max Domi, and would be quite respectable for an 18 year old rookie.
How does Marner compare to Mathews? I didn't know Marner looked this good.
I do think he is scaling shooting percentages for each player. As I understand it, he has the average OHL and NHL save percentages in all three zones - and thus the average shooting percentages for each league in all three zones - and scales individual players shooting percentage accordingly relative to the average. So every player is individually adjusted based on how he performs at the OHL level.
What is inferred from the article however - based on all the expected NHL goal totals per player - is that almost all players fall well below the average 8.5-9.0% average NHL shooting percentage. Eyeball test suggests average shooting percentage of 5.0-7.0% for most players. This can easily be accounted by looking at the NHL goalie save percentage of 2.0%, 4.0% and 9.3% for LD, MD, HD zones respectively and then realizing that OHL players take a much bigger percentage of shots from the LD/MD combisned zones relative to NHL players. More shots as a % of total outside of HD zone compared to typical NHLer means on average a given player will be below the average NHL player who generally shoots from in closer.
That's what I was saying, he is scaling their shooting percentages according to the league averages. Marner, Strome, etc. are not average players, they are outliers. Generally forwards have better than average shooting percentages, and high skill forwards even more so. To assume that Marner's HD SH% is 2.8x higher in the OHL than it would be in the NHL is extremely dubious. 2.8x is such a huge number.
Marner's overall shooting percentage in the NHL won't be 5-6% like this analysis predicts. It will probably be more like 10-12%, at least, like most skilled forwards, which translates to 24 goals using the same weighting of danger areas.
My understanding is Burtch is reweighting the shot distribution to compensate for this, actually. That is, he's assuming Marner will take 24/9 as many shots from HD areas in the NHL as he does in the OHL (24% of NHL shots are from HD areas compared to 9% in the OHL).
Despite all these unanswered questions, this is the first article I have read that helps contextualize the differences between OHL and NHL scoring by shooting zones.
I agree that it's fascinating at a macro level. I had no idea that OHL players shot so much less frequently from HD areas, or that OHL goalies were that bad from HD areas.
But I don't think you can make reasonable NHL projections for individual players this way. He's partitioning down something that's already highly variable (overall SH%) into three smaller categories, which will now have even more variance, then adjusting each of those by noisy ratios, then trying to recombine them. With additional noise on top of that in the form of the weights to account for the different shooting preferences across leagues. It's like trying to turn a pig into a cow by putting it in a sausage grinder, adding a bunch of ground beef, and then forming it into the shape of a cow.
I wish he had also listed the actual goal/shot totals for each player per danger zone, because that would be interesting. I'd be curious to know if players who get a lot of HD scoring chances in the OHL translate better to the NHL, for example.
Even if the majority of the non matthews/marner/nylander leafs prospects bust (very good possibility), you still have a dman good foundation to build upon