Bob McKenzie's midterm report just aired. Some notes:
Patrick is ranked #1 on Bob's midterm with 8/10 scouts ranking him there, although there is a major emphasis on his production
last year. Bob made sure to state that this outcome leaned heavily on Patrick's production in 2015-16.
According to McKenzie, Nico Hischier has served notice and has made this a two-horse race for first overall. He stated that it is very possible for Hischier to overtake Patrick as the consensus first-overall choice. So far, Patrick's previous accomplishments are standing place of his 2016-17 performance; many of the scouts who voted for Patrick are "intrigued by Hischier."
I have disputed the legitimacy of Patrick's previous level of production, as many of you know. He played for the 2016 WHL Champion Brandon Wheat Kings with Ivan Provorov (2015, 7th overall overall), John Quenneville (2014, 30th overall), and Jayce Hawryluk (2014, 32nd overall) and played with those top-end talents. There is a 20-game sample from last season when at least one of the others was absent from the lineup; in those 20 games, Patrick had just 20 points. I believe that his statistics were inflated last season as a result of playing with those players. He does not drive his line either. That said, Patrick's 2015-16 season appears to be keeping him at #1 for now until he can generate a body of work for his current season.
Shift-by-shift packages of Nolan Patrick with the Brandon Wheat Kings since his return:
January 13, 2017:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JK6qjr65kpU
January 14, 2017:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kgBCf-92HX0
This season, Hischier leads the QMJHL in points per game and all first-year draft-eligible players in points per game. Of his 68 points so far in 40 games played, 59 are primary points (counted manually due to poor primary and secondary assist tracking by the Q)
(see: http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=2162767). Hischier is also the only first-year draft-eligible player who has broken the 2.0 points per game plateau at home, an accomplishment that all of the top-tier CHL first-year draft-eligible players of the past few drafts have done. Since October 26, 2016, he has scored 28 goals, 55 points in 27 games with the Halifax Mooseheads.
Some numbers to consider:
[collapse=points per game]Keep in mind the adjustment that Nico Hischier needed to make over the first month of the season, coming to North America from Switzerland. All other players he has been compared to here grew up playing hockey in North America and played at least one previous CHL season. Nico Hischier is a CHL rookie.
In the first 13 games of the season, he had 13 points.
In 6 away games, he had 6 points. In 7 home games, he had 7 points.
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Nico Hischier (Since October 26):
Home: 22 goals, 38 points in 15 games
(2.53 points per game)
Away: 6 goals, 17 points in 12 games
(1.42 points per game)
If he played his full season on the road, his road pace since October 26 would be good for 34 goals, 96 points in 68 games.
If he played all of his games at home, he would be on pace for 99 goals, 172 points over 68 games.
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To compare (raw home/away splits):
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2015 NHL Draft:
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Connor McDavid (2014-15):
Home: 28 goals, 70 points in 24 games
(2.92 points per game)
Away: 16 goals, 50 points in 23 games
(2.17 points per game)
2013-14 (McDavid):
Home: 16 goals, 62 points in 28 games
(2.21 points per game)
Away: 12 goals, 37 points in 28 games
(1.32 points per game)
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Mitch Marner (2014-15):
Home: 22 goals, 71 points in 32 games
(2.22 points per game)
Away: 17 goals, 45 points in 25 games
(1.8 points per game)
2015-16 [Draft+1] (Marner):
Home: 25 goals, 64 points in 29 games
(2.21 points per game)
Away: 14 goals, 52 points in 28 games
(1.86 points per game)
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2016 NHL Draft:
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Pierre-Luc Dubois (2015-16):
Home: 26 goals, 63 points in 30 games
(2.1 points per game)
Away: 16 goals, 36 points in 32 games
(1.125 points per game)
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Matthew Tkachuk (2015-16):
Home: 17 goals, 56 points in 28 games
(2.0 points per game)
Away: 13 goals, 51 points in 29 games
(1.76 points per game)
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2017 NHL Draft:
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Since we don't have enough of a sample size for Nolan Patrick's current season, we'll look at his 2015-16 home and away splits as well:
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Nolan Patrick (2015-16):
Home: 21 goals, 50 points in 36 games
(1.39 points per game)
Away: 20 goals, 52 points in 36 games
(1.44 points per game)
2016-17 (Patrick):
Home: 7 goals, 13 points in 8 games
(1.625 points per game)
Away: 1 goal, 4 points in 3 games
(1.33 points per game)
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Gabriel Vilardi (2016-17):
Home: 7 goals, 21 points in 19 games
(1.105 points per game)
Away: 10 goals, 15 points in 11 games
(1.36 points per game)
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Owen Tippett (2016-17):
Home: 17 goals, 31 points in 21 games
(1.48 points per game)
Away: 19 goals, 30 points in 24 games
(1.25 points per game)
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Kailer Yamamoto (2016-17):
Home: 16 goals, 31 points in 21 games
(1.48 points per game)
Away: 14 goals, 32 points in 22 games
(1.45 points per game)
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Michael Rasmussen (2016-17):
Home: 19 goals, 35 points in 23 games
(1.52 points per game)
Away: 13 goals, 20 points in 26 games
(0.77 points per game)
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Nick Suzuki (2016-17):
Home: 10 goals, 29 points in 24 games
(1.21 points per game)
Away: 13 goals, 28 points in 21 games
(1.33 points per game)
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Nikita Popugaev (2016-17):
Home: 9 goals, 25 points in 27 games
(0.93 points per game)
Away: 15 goals, 26 points in 25 games
(1.04 points per game)
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In McKenzie's terms, "Patrick and Hischier are a clear level above the rest of their draft class."
Every player from #3 to #13 received at least one Top Five vote. Every player between #14 and #21 received at least one Top Ten vote.
The program will be aired again tonight at 7 PM ET/ 4 PM PT.
http://www.tsn.ca/patrick-has-decided-edge-in-tsn-hockey-mid-season-draft-ranking-1.661533
Patrick has decided edge in TSN Hockey Mid-season Draft Ranking
By Bob McKenzie
Jan 31
In the one, and likely only, head-to-head, on-ice meeting this season between Nolan Patrick and Nico Hischier, give a slight edge to Hischier.
The Halifax Mooseheads’ Swiss centre scored a nifty breakaway goal – started off a Patrick turnover – and added a deft primary assist and a late-game secondary assist in Team Cherry's 7-5 win over Hischier's Team Orr in the CHL's Prospects Game Monday night in Quebec City. Mind you, Patrick also had a pair of assists and turned in a solid winning effort in a game that often featured the two captains playing opposite each other. Hischier was named Team Orr's player of the game.
As for TSN's Mid-Season 2017 NHL Draft Rankings, give the decided but not unanimous edge to Patrick –for now, anyway.
Eight of 10 scouts surveyed by TSN have the 6-foot-2, 198-pound centre from Winnipeg at No. 1 for this year's draft, which will be held June 23-24 in Chicago.
...
"The reality is [in spite of the limited viewings because of a groin injury] Patrick is a known quantity because of what he did last year," an NHL scout said of Patrick's 41 goals and 102 points in 72 games for a powerhouse WHL champion Wheat Kings team, adding league playoff MVP honours to his resume.
...
Patrick is a late 1998 birthdate. He missed being eligible for last year's draft by only four days, so even though he wasn't eligible, he was often being viewed and measured against the top players in the 2016 draft class. . . .The consensus amongst scouts seems to be that were Patrick eligible last year, he would have been ranked/chosen in the No. 5 to 8 region, quite likely behind Matthews, Laine, Pierre-Luc Dubois and Jesse Puljujarvi. . . . All it really means is the scouts are familiar with Patrick's game.
...
While Patrick's 8-2 edge amongst scouts in TSN's voting seems lopsided, many of those who chose Patrick over Hischier acknowledged the potential for a legitimate battle the rest of this season for No. 1 draft status in June.
"You can't rule it out," one scout said. "Hischier has been so dynamic in Halifax this season. He's very quick. The numbers he's putting up with a team no one expected to be very good this season are eye- opening and his play at the world junior championship wasn't just good, it was great."
...
"He wasn't the biggest kid before and he most certainly has grown and filled out," a scout said. "He's much stronger than he was. He's extremely difficult to take off the puck."
...
One of the two scouts who put Hischier ahead of Patrick in TSN's mid-season balloting did so for a variety of reasons.
"No one's smarter [in this draft]," the scout said. "His hockey sense is really good, his overall compete level and two-way game, I think, is better. He's more dynamic [than Patrick]. It's not a case of not liking Patrick; he's a good player and he's going to be a good NHL player. I just like Hischier better."
The other scout who took Hischier over Patrick noted the Swiss player's ability to get inside and to the net to make plays.
...
I can only post 20 lines as per the forum rules, but the article covers the top of the draft class very well with regards to its parity, as well as the Hischier vs Patrick debate. For example, Timothy Liljegren was ranked as high as #3 by one scout, and as low as the second round by another; Gabe Vilardi's ranking ranged between #3 and #14; Casey Mittelstadt's ranking ranged from #4 to #13. According to Bob, Cale Makar has the best chance to jump into the Top 10 and challenge Timothy Liljegren as the top defenceman. He also believes that Klim Kostin will likely fall from the Top 10 due to his season-ending injury and the lack of certainty about him.
It is definitely worth your time.
80 players are listed; there are also several honorable mentions.