C Nolan Patrick - Brandon Wheat Kings, WHL (2017, 2nd, PHI) II

[sbtatter]

I echo the comments by Mozes,

I've seen Patrick quite bit as well and I just do not see anymore gears of offensive talent to be worthy of a 1st overall pick. This doesn't mean he's going suck or anything like, but he really reminds me of Jordan Staal and that is the type of player I would not pick 1st overall. A bit timid, not enough dynamic ability, and isn't that engaged in the play either.

You think he will be in the show or back to the WHL next season?

 

[McMozesmadness]

I think he will be in the show next year.

 

[izzy]

Probably will, but I guess it depends who gets him

 

[93LEAFS]

I'd be pretty shocked if he wasn't in the NHL next year. Pretty rare for a top 3 pick with 3 seasons in the OHL to go back. Reinhart and Drai did, and Strome got sent back this year, but Patrick doesn't have a blatant weakness like those two did. He's probably the most pro-ready player in the draft. I fully expect him and Hischier to break camp with their clubs. Now, maybe some unexpected team wins the lotto and they don't have immediate needs to play him, but that seems unlikely.

The only really bad team that may not have a spot for him is Arizona, but even then they could probably find one, but he would be fighting with Strome and possibly Keller for a center gig.

 

[Stephen]

It was interesting that Sean Couturier's name was brought up. There was another guy who had ideal pro first line center stamped all over him, was projected as an early 2011 first overall option and yet Mark Schiefele ended up getting picked (correctly) one spot earlier.

My question here is what were the scouts looking at a player like Nolan Patrick, what tips them off that he may end up being closer to a Couturier than a Schiefele, if in fact that is true? In what categories are scouts looking at to say "he's still raw" or "he's maxed out?"

Also, where would Nolan Patrick have been drafted had he been born a few days earlier and been eligible for 2016?

 

[93LEAFS]

It was interesting that Sean Couturier's name was brought up. There was another guy who had ideal pro first line center stamped all over him, was projected as an early 2011 first overall option and yet Mark Schiefele ended up getting picked (correctly) one spot earlier.

My question here is what were the scouts looking at a player like Nolan Patrick, what tips them off that he may end up being closer to a Couturier than a Schiefele, if in fact that is true? In what categories are scouts looking at to say "he's still raw" or "he's maxed out?"

Also, where would Nolan Patrick have been drafted had he been born a few days earlier and been eligible for 2016?

Between 3 and 5. Exactly where is unclear. My guess is the Canucks would have taken him over Juolevi or the Blue Jackets over Dubois.

I think he has more to his offensive game than either Couturier or Jordan Staal. Eric Staal seems like a fair comparison, personally, I'd expect a similar development arch to someone like Sean Monahan. Which entering this year looked to be a 30-30 guy who plays a strong 2-way game, with potential for more. That's basically a middle to lower tier number 1 Center, who might not be a franchise changing talent, but more than enough to win with.

 

[McMozesmadness]

I think he would've gone 3rd last year. Although I would've ranked him 5th on my list.

The year before he goes 3rd or 4th to Phoenix or TO. Would've had him 5th behind Hanifin and Provorov.

 

[93LEAFS]

I think he would've gone 3rd last year. Although I would've ranked him 5th on my list.

The year before he goes 3rd or 4th to Phoenix or TO. Would've had him 5th behind Hanifin and Provorov.

I can see him slipping to 6 in 2015. Hunter was a 100% sold on Marner as his guy, it would have taken a prospect a clear tier above him for him not to go 4 (McDavid, Eichel or Matthews type talent). I don't see much of a gap between him and Hanifin as prospects, and Carolina has been eying D. No chance the Devils take Zacha over him though.

D. Strome vs Patrick is an interesting debate. Strome in his draft year looked to have higher-end offensive upside, but Patrick edges him in most things. He's stronger on the puck, a much better skater and has a better release on his shot.

 

[Daximus]

I think he may be suffering from a bit to much exposure even though he's missed so much of the season. He'll never be that wow factor center and I think everyone expects that now from a first overall. He plays more of a quiet but very effective game and I think some team is going to underate him and make another team very very happy.

 

[TimeZone]

I think he would've gone 3rd last year. Although I would've ranked him 5th on my list.

The year before he goes 3rd or 4th to Phoenix or TO. Would've had him 5th behind Hanifin and Provorov.

Not a chance in hell he goes #3 or #4 in 2015. I think he goes 6th.

 

[S E P H]

I think he may be suffering from a bit to much exposure even though he's missed so much of the season. He'll never be that wow factor center and I think everyone expects that now from a first overall. He plays more of a quiet but very effective game and I think some team is going to underate him and make another team very very happy.

Or maybe he just isn't a 1st overall player in any other draft except Yakupov's? Again, he isn't a bad player, but this draft is different as there really isn't a true 1st overall worthy player. I see a Nolan a lot like Dylan Strome in what you describe as a quiet, but effective player. However, he's not a player I can see that leads a team through offensive productivity like Strome showed with Canada last WJC. Patrick probably goes 1st, but as an Avs fan I much rather lose the draft lottery and pick up Hischier or Vilardi at 2nd overall as of now.

You think he will be in the show or back to the WHL next season?

Definitely NHL next season, his body frame and defencive ability is already NHL ready IMO.

 

[JA]

Bob McKenzie's midterm report just aired. Some notes:

Patrick is ranked #1 on Bob's midterm with 8/10 scouts ranking him there, although there is a major emphasis on his production last year. Bob made sure to state that this outcome leaned heavily on Patrick's production in 2015-16.

According to McKenzie, Nico Hischier has served notice and has made this a two-horse race for first overall. He stated that it is very possible for Hischier to overtake Patrick as the consensus first-overall choice. So far, Patrick's previous accomplishments are standing place of his 2016-17 performance; many of the scouts who voted for Patrick are "intrigued by Hischier."

I have disputed the legitimacy of Patrick's previous level of production, as many of you know. He played for the 2016 WHL Champion Brandon Wheat Kings with Ivan Provorov (2015, 7th overall overall), John Quenneville (2014, 30th overall), and Jayce Hawryluk (2014, 32nd overall) and played with those top-end talents. There is a 20-game sample from last season when at least one of the others was absent from the lineup; in those 20 games, Patrick had just 20 points. I believe that his statistics were inflated last season as a result of playing with those players. He does not drive his line either. That said, Patrick's 2015-16 season appears to be keeping him at #1 for now until he can generate a body of work for his current season.

Shift-by-shift packages of Nolan Patrick with the Brandon Wheat Kings since his return:

January 13, 2017: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JK6qjr65kpU
January 14, 2017: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kgBCf-92HX0

This season, Hischier leads the QMJHL in points per game and all first-year draft-eligible players in points per game. Of his 68 points so far in 40 games played, 59 are primary points (counted manually due to poor primary and secondary assist tracking by the Q) (see: http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=2162767). Hischier is also the only first-year draft-eligible player who has broken the 2.0 points per game plateau at home, an accomplishment that all of the top-tier CHL first-year draft-eligible players of the past few drafts have done. Since October 26, 2016, he has scored 28 goals, 55 points in 27 games with the Halifax Mooseheads.

Some numbers to consider:

[collapse=points per game]Keep in mind the adjustment that Nico Hischier needed to make over the first month of the season, coming to North America from Switzerland. All other players he has been compared to here grew up playing hockey in North America and played at least one previous CHL season. Nico Hischier is a CHL rookie.

In the first 13 games of the season, he had 13 points.

In 6 away games, he had 6 points. In 7 home games, he had 7 points.
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Nico Hischier (Since October 26):

Home: 22 goals, 38 points in 15 games (2.53 points per game)

Away: 6 goals, 17 points in 12 games (1.42 points per game)

If he played his full season on the road, his road pace since October 26 would be good for 34 goals, 96 points in 68 games.

If he played all of his games at home, he would be on pace for 99 goals, 172 points over 68 games.
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To compare (raw home/away splits):
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2015 NHL Draft:
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Connor McDavid (2014-15):

Home: 28 goals, 70 points in 24 games (2.92 points per game)

Away: 16 goals, 50 points in 23 games (2.17 points per game)

2013-14 (McDavid):

Home: 16 goals, 62 points in 28 games (2.21 points per game)

Away: 12 goals, 37 points in 28 games (1.32 points per game)
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Mitch Marner (2014-15):

Home: 22 goals, 71 points in 32 games (2.22 points per game)

Away: 17 goals, 45 points in 25 games (1.8 points per game)

2015-16 [Draft+1] (Marner):

Home: 25 goals, 64 points in 29 games (2.21 points per game)

Away: 14 goals, 52 points in 28 games (1.86 points per game)
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2016 NHL Draft:
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Pierre-Luc Dubois (2015-16):

Home: 26 goals, 63 points in 30 games (2.1 points per game)

Away: 16 goals, 36 points in 32 games (1.125 points per game)
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Matthew Tkachuk (2015-16):

Home: 17 goals, 56 points in 28 games (2.0 points per game)

Away: 13 goals, 51 points in 29 games (1.76 points per game)
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2017 NHL Draft:
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Since we don't have enough of a sample size for Nolan Patrick's current season, we'll look at his 2015-16 home and away splits as well:
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Nolan Patrick (2015-16):

Home: 21 goals, 50 points in 36 games (1.39 points per game)

Away: 20 goals, 52 points in 36 games (1.44 points per game)

2016-17 (Patrick):

Home: 7 goals, 13 points in 8 games (1.625 points per game)

Away: 1 goal, 4 points in 3 games (1.33 points per game)
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Gabriel Vilardi (2016-17):

Home: 7 goals, 21 points in 19 games (1.105 points per game)

Away: 10 goals, 15 points in 11 games (1.36 points per game)
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Owen Tippett (2016-17):

Home: 17 goals, 31 points in 21 games (1.48 points per game)

Away: 19 goals, 30 points in 24 games (1.25 points per game)
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Kailer Yamamoto (2016-17):

Home: 16 goals, 31 points in 21 games (1.48 points per game)

Away: 14 goals, 32 points in 22 games (1.45 points per game)
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Michael Rasmussen (2016-17):

Home: 19 goals, 35 points in 23 games (1.52 points per game)

Away: 13 goals, 20 points in 26 games (0.77 points per game)
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Nick Suzuki (2016-17):

Home: 10 goals, 29 points in 24 games (1.21 points per game)

Away: 13 goals, 28 points in 21 games (1.33 points per game)
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Nikita Popugaev (2016-17):

Home: 9 goals, 25 points in 27 games (0.93 points per game)

Away: 15 goals, 26 points in 25 games (1.04 points per game)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------[/collapse]
In McKenzie's terms, "Patrick and Hischier are a clear level above the rest of their draft class."

Every player from #3 to #13 received at least one Top Five vote. Every player between #14 and #21 received at least one Top Ten vote.

The program will be aired again tonight at 7 PM ET/ 4 PM PT.

http://www.tsn.ca/patrick-has-decided-edge-in-tsn-hockey-mid-season-draft-ranking-1.661533

Patrick has decided edge in TSN Hockey Mid-season Draft Ranking
By Bob McKenzie
Jan 31

In the one, and likely only, head-to-head, on-ice meeting this season between Nolan Patrick and Nico Hischier, give a slight edge to Hischier.

The Halifax Mooseheads’ Swiss centre scored a nifty breakaway goal – started off a Patrick turnover – and added a deft primary assist and a late-game secondary assist in Team Cherry's 7-5 win over Hischier's Team Orr in the CHL's Prospects Game Monday night in Quebec City. Mind you, Patrick also had a pair of assists and turned in a solid winning effort in a game that often featured the two captains playing opposite each other. Hischier was named Team Orr's player of the game.

As for TSN's Mid-Season 2017 NHL Draft Rankings, give the decided but not unanimous edge to Patrick –for now, anyway.

Eight of 10 scouts surveyed by TSN have the 6-foot-2, 198-pound centre from Winnipeg at No. 1 for this year's draft, which will be held June 23-24 in Chicago.

...

"The reality is [in spite of the limited viewings because of a groin injury] Patrick is a known quantity because of what he did last year," an NHL scout said of Patrick's 41 goals and 102 points in 72 games for a powerhouse WHL champion Wheat Kings team, adding league playoff MVP honours to his resume.

...

Patrick is a late 1998 birthdate. He missed being eligible for last year's draft by only four days, so even though he wasn't eligible, he was often being viewed and measured against the top players in the 2016 draft class. . . .The consensus amongst scouts seems to be that were Patrick eligible last year, he would have been ranked/chosen in the No. 5 to 8 region, quite likely behind Matthews, Laine, Pierre-Luc Dubois and Jesse Puljujarvi. . . . All it really means is the scouts are familiar with Patrick's game.

...

While Patrick's 8-2 edge amongst scouts in TSN's voting seems lopsided, many of those who chose Patrick over Hischier acknowledged the potential for a legitimate battle the rest of this season for No. 1 draft status in June.

"You can't rule it out," one scout said. "Hischier has been so dynamic in Halifax this season. He's very quick. The numbers he's putting up with a team no one expected to be very good this season are eye- opening and his play at the world junior championship wasn't just good, it was great."

...

"He wasn't the biggest kid before and he most certainly has grown and filled out," a scout said. "He's much stronger than he was. He's extremely difficult to take off the puck."

...

One of the two scouts who put Hischier ahead of Patrick in TSN's mid-season balloting did so for a variety of reasons.

"No one's smarter [in this draft]," the scout said. "His hockey sense is really good, his overall compete level and two-way game, I think, is better. He's more dynamic [than Patrick]. It's not a case of not liking Patrick; he's a good player and he's going to be a good NHL player. I just like Hischier better."

The other scout who took Hischier over Patrick noted the Swiss player's ability to get inside and to the net to make plays.

...

I can only post 20 lines as per the forum rules, but the article covers the top of the draft class very well with regards to its parity, as well as the Hischier vs Patrick debate. For example, Timothy Liljegren was ranked as high as #3 by one scout, and as low as the second round by another; Gabe Vilardi's ranking ranged between #3 and #14; Casey Mittelstadt's ranking ranged from #4 to #13. According to Bob, Cale Makar has the best chance to jump into the Top 10 and challenge Timothy Liljegren as the top defenceman. He also believes that Klim Kostin will likely fall from the Top 10 due to his season-ending injury and the lack of certainty about him.

It is definitely worth your time.

80 players are listed; there are also several honorable mentions.

 

[surixon]

Or maybe he just isn't a 1st overall player in any other draft except Yakupov's? Again, he isn't a bad player, but this draft is different as there really isn't a true 1st overall worthy player. I see a Nolan a lot like Dylan Strome in what you describe as a quiet, but effective player. However, he's not a player I can see that leads a team through offensive productivity like Strome showed with Canada last WJC. Patrick probably goes 1st, but as an Avs fan I much rather lose the draft lottery and pick up Hischier or Vilardi at 2nd overall as of now.


Definitely NHL next season, his body frame and defencive ability is already NHL ready IMO.

I'm not so sure about that. He lead Branden to a WHL championship last season putting up terrific point totals.

I think he comes in around 30 goals and 70nto 75 points per year while playing excellent defense. He's more of a Bergeron/Toews type centre imo but they are still extremely valuable.

 

[Daximus]

Or maybe he just isn't a 1st overall player in any other draft except Yakupov's? Again, he isn't a bad player, but this draft is different as there really isn't a true 1st overall worthy player. I see a Nolan a lot like Dylan Strome in what you describe as a quiet, but effective player. However, he's not a player I can see that leads a team through offensive productivity like Strome showed with Canada last WJC. Patrick probably goes 1st, but as an Avs fan I much rather lose the draft lottery and pick up Hischier or Vilardi at 2nd overall as of now.


Definitely NHL next season, his body frame and defencive ability is already NHL ready IMO.

I hope every team sleeps on him like many around here are and the Jets can snag him as he falls. Would be epic for us.

 

[93LEAFS]

I hope every team sleeps on him like many around here are and the Jets can snag him as he falls. Would be epic for us.

He's not slipping past 2, and still probably goes 1OA. If he slipped much past that, then there might be something very worrying in his medicals.

 

[Daximus]

He's not slipping past 2, and still probably goes 1OA. If he slipped much past that, then there might be something very worrying in his medicals.

Or with NHL scouting staff.

 

[93LEAFS]

Or with NHL scouting staff.

Maybe, but considering his current standing that is an unlikely outcome. Vilardi would have to have an amazing playoffs or Liljegren dominating the under 18's to push Patrick just down to 4. Outside of serious medical concerns, I can't see guys like Mittelstadt and Tippett passing him.

 

[sbtatter]

He's not slipping past 2, and still probably goes 1OA. If he slipped much past that, then there might be something very worrying in his medicals.

That's the question that the 2017 draft will turn on. Is Patrick the same player that he was the previous 2 years? He hasn't looked it yet in Jan, I know that he need some time to get back up to speed, but so far he isn't as fast, hasn't passed as well and has put himself in vulnerable positions to be hit, things that never happened before. Totally unsubstantiated personal opinion I have is that he suffered a concussion against swift current back in October, but I cannot in anyway corroborate that opinion.
I think to be fair and have an unbiased opinion on how Patrick 2017 compares to the prior Patrick we need to give him Feb and evaluate his play. And he does have 4 goals and 4 assists in his 5 games since returning from injury which is very decent
Will he go #1? Toews didn't Would a team pick Patrick #1 if he equalled Toews career? Be interesting to watch this unfold

 

[Daximus]

That's the question that the 2017 draft will turn on. Is Patrick the same player that he was the previous 2 years? He hasn't looked it yet in Jan, I know that he need some time to get back up to speed, but so far he isn't as fast, hasn't passed as well and has put himself in vulnerable positions to be hit, things that never happened before. Totally unsubstantiated personal opinion I have is that he suffered a concussion against swift current back in October, but I cannot in anyway corroborate that opinion.
I think to be fair and have an unbiased opinion on how Patrick 2017 compares to the prior Patrick we need to give him Feb and evaluate his play. And he does have 4 goals and 4 assists in his 5 games since returning from injury which is very decent
Will he go #1? Toews didn't Would a team pick Patrick #1 if he equalled Toews career? Be interesting to watch this unfold

What weird is they are saying it was the opposite side of his groin now that he injured. Not the side he injured before. Which didn't sound like the case a few months ago.

 

[S E P H]

I'm not so sure about that. He lead Branden to a WHL championship last season putting up terrific point totals.

I think he comes in around 30 goals and 70nto 75 points per year while playing excellent defense. He's more of a Bergeron/Toews type centre imo but they are still extremely valuable.

I wouldn't take junior statistics that seriously, they're probably the most skewed from any type of talented hockey league. Patrick posted PPG status in both of his years is because Wheat Kings are a dominant force of a team. Even from the eye test, Patrick got to play with some absurdly talented players like McGauley, Quenneville x2, Bukarts, Hawryluk, Provorov, Pilon, Duke, and Klimchuck during his first year. That is as good as a top 6 and top 3 (in defenders) you can find on any team. In his season year after this, they did lose some talent, but regained it with the likes of an older Erkamps, older Provorov, older Duke, older Hawryluk, older John Quenneville, older Wheaton, Kaspick, and Mattheos.

Would he have put up his terrific point total on a team like the Edmonton Oil Kings or even Seattle Thunderbirds for that matter? The answer is an easy no, but that doesn't make him a bad player. I suggest that at least 1/3 of his points are due to playing on a powerhouse club. He wouldn't have been PPG during his rookie year and wouldn't have surpass 100 points last season.

This season he's once again a PPG player, but this shows more that he is a top player for this draft, I never argued that he isn't a top 3 player for 2017. However, he isn't the player I would personally pick for my club currently. My comparison to Jordan Staal is how I see him in the NHL. Granted that Jordan never got pasted 50 points in the NHL during his prime, but I think a major part of it had to do being stuck behind Crosby and Malkin. If he went to a team like Stars or Senators in the 2012 season, he would be have been a 60ish player. I see Patrick in a similar skill-set, strengths, and weaknesses as a solid two-way player posting somewhere in the 60 points in his career.

 

[93LEAFS]

I wouldn't take junior statistics that seriously, they're probably the most skewed from any type of talented hockey league. Patrick posted PPG status in both of his years is because Wheat Kings are a dominant force of a team. Even from the eye test, Patrick got to play with some absurdly talented players like McGauley, Quenneville x2, Bukarts, Hawryluk, Provorov, Pilon, Duke, and Klimchuck during his first year. That is as good as a top 6 and top 3 (in defenders) you can find on any team. In his season year after this, they did lose some talent, but regained it with the likes of an older Erkamps, older Provorov, older Duke, older Hawryluk, older John Quenneville, older Wheaton, Kaspick, and Mattheos.

Would he have put up his terrific point total on a team like the Edmonton Oil Kings or even Seattle Thunderbirds for that matter? The answer is an easy no, but that doesn't make him a bad player. I suggest that at least 1/3 of his points are due to playing on a powerhouse club. He wouldn't have been PPG during his rookie year and wouldn't have surpass 100 points last season.

This season he's once again a PPG player, but this shows more that he is a top player for this draft, I never argued that he isn't a top 3 player for 2017. However, he isn't the player I would personally pick for my club currently. My comparison to Jordan Staal is how I see him in the NHL. Granted that Jordan never got pasted 50 points in the NHL during his prime, but I think a major part of it had to do being stuck behind Crosby and Malkin. If he went to a team like Stars or Senators in the 2012 season, he would be have been a 60ish player. I see Patrick in a similar skill-set, strengths, and weaknesses as a solid two-way player posting somewhere in the 60 points in his career.

The issue with the stacked teammate argument though is usually playing on a deep team leaves less prime minutes available for a player to thrive statistically, especially for a 16-year-old.

I'd use my own, and others underestimating of Matt Tkachuk last year as an example. Tkachuk came to the Knights and was put on an already powerhouse line from the previous year of Dvorak and Marner. Dvorak's numbers improved slightly, and Marner's saw a very minimal increase. Some will say that was due to them losing Max Domi, but Domi didn't play that much with them at ES, their primary linemate was Matt Rupert, who Tkachuk put up much better totals than. Now, due to Tkachuk's lesser numbers (primarily being the main beneficiary of secondary assists and having the lowest ppg) when compared to his other two linemates, many thought there were questionable aspects about his offense carrying over quickly to the NHL. At a certain point, it takes high-level IQ to blend in with elite players and know where to be. Guys who are comfortable with and without the puck are quite valuable.

While Jordan Staal is a fair comparison, I think that is selling him a bit short. I'd say you should expect a Sean Monahan type talent and production while hoping you get a guy like Toews or Kopitar.

 

[S E P H]

The issue with the stacked teammate argument though is usually playing on a deep team leaves less prime minutes available for a player to thrive statistically, especially for a 16-year-old.

While Jordan Staal is a fair comparison, I think that is selling him a bit short. I'd say you should expect a Sean Monahan type talent and production while hoping you get a guy like Toews or Kopitar.

A reasonable proposal to your statement could have been due to his already mature frame and defensive responsibilities. McCrimmon put him on PK duties during his rookie campaign and even I will admit he didn't look out of place at all.

When he came in the league, he was already 6'2.5"-6'3" and one of the cultural significance of Western Canada, especially in the WHL is further progressed frames (height/weight/toughness). He was able to handle WHL defenders more easily than someone like Yamamoto. As I mentioned before, he was also quite polished defensively meaning he was able to play more minutes than what we normally see on stacked junior teams.

What I mean that his point totals could be skewed could be because of special teams. Highly skilled players who are very intelligent like Provorov, Hawryluk, Pilon, and John Quenneville are able to expose junior teams badly with extra attackers. Amazing passes which Patrick received not only with a man advantage, but also on 5v5 could have given him extra goals than what his talent ability says. His assist can be used by the same argument when you play with the likes of the players I cited above. Not only that, but junior hockey has a wide function of goaler talent. Some goalers are truly good prospects like Matt Murray or Carey Price, while others play on loaded teams getting draft like Mac Carruth. Others just plain suck on horrible junior teams. I am not trying to discredit Patrick here as a player, but these are all suitable theories in why I personally believe his offensive game doesn't possess an extra gear compared to other players in this draft.

 

[93LEAFS]

A reasonable proposal to your statement could have been due to his already mature frame and defensive responsibilities. McCrimmon put him on PK duties during his rookie campaign and even I will admit he didn't look out of place at all.

When he came in the league, he was already 6'2.5"-6'3" and one of the cultural significance of Western Canada, especially in the WHL is further progressed frames (height/weight/toughness). He was able to handle WHL defenders more easily than someone like Yamamoto. As I mentioned before, he was also quite polished defensively meaning he was able to play more minutes than what we normally see on stacked junior teams.

What I mean that his point totals could be skewed could be because of special teams. Highly skilled players who are very intelligent like Provorov, Hawryluk, Pilon, and John Quenneville are able to expose junior teams badly with extra attackers. Amazing passes which Patrick received not only with a man advantage, but also on 5v5 could have given him extra goals than what his talent ability says. His assist can be used by the same argument when you play with the likes of the players I cited above. Not only that, but junior hockey has a wide function of goaler talent. Some goalers are truly good prospects like Matt Murray or Carey Price, while others play on loaded teams getting draft like Mac Carruth. Others just plain suck on horrible junior teams. I am not trying to discredit Patrick here as a player, but these are all suitable theories in why I personally believe his offensive game doesn't possess an extra gear compared to other players in this draft.

True, but for example, the guy you like at 1 also plays with a boatload of offensive talent and isn't putting up those types of numbers. In some ways, Windsor's current depth (when not injured) actually hurts Vilardi's ability to get prime ice-time and play in his desired position.

I'm more familiar with the OHL, I watch the Knights a lot, and have obviously seen them run rampant over terrible Sudbury, Flint and etc style teams. But, I think the stacked teammate argument is sometimes a bit overstated unless you are talking about fringe prospects playing with ridiculous talents. Obviously, a guy stuck on a very bottom level team will have trouble putting up elite numbers in that situation. But, let's be realistic, most elite talents never even report to these teams. So in a bunch of cases, it is less ice-time but playing with better teammates on a more balanced team or playing on a good to middling team but getting a boatload of ice-time. I just wish one day the CHL accurately tracked TOI so we could actually see this effect. We have eTOI but that is far from perfect.

 

[landy92mack29]

The issue with the stacked teammate argument though is usually playing on a deep team leaves less prime minutes available for a player to thrive statistically, especially for a 16-year-old.

I'd use my own, and others underestimating of Matt Tkachuk last year as an example. Tkachuk came to the Knights and was put on an already powerhouse line from the previous year of Dvorak and Marner. Dvorak's numbers improved slightly, and Marner's saw a very minimal increase. Some will say that was due to them losing Max Domi, but Domi didn't play that much with them at ES, their primary linemate was Matt Rupert, who Tkachuk put up much better totals than. Now, due to Tkachuk's lesser numbers (primarily being the main beneficiary of secondary assists and having the lowest ppg) when compared to his other two linemates, many thought there were questionable aspects about his offense carrying over quickly to the NHL. At a certain point, it takes high-level IQ to blend in with elite players and know where to be. Guys who are comfortable with and without the puck are quite valuable.

While Jordan Staal is a fair comparison, I think that is selling him a bit short. I'd say you should expect a Sean Monahan type talent and production while hoping you get a guy like Toews or Kopitar.

Disregard anything he says as he's daft and doesn't actual watch nearly as much as he lets on. In junior point production is very misleading sometimes but Patrick is the driver of every line he's on and isn't gifted special treatment by getting all the PP minutes like Hischier. His teammates also don't force passes to him and only look for him when he's the obvious option. Patrick was the playoff MVP because he was the main reason Brandon won the WHL championship as he took over the games. Also for the linemates argument Patricks linemates benefit far more from playing with him than he does with them. The ineptitude of certain posters is amusing at times

 

[irunthepeg]

I echo the comments by Mozes,

I've seen Patrick quite bit as well and I just do not see anymore gears of offensive talent to be worthy of a 1st overall pick. This doesn't mean he's going suck or anything like, but he really reminds me of Jordan Staal and that is the type of player I would not pick 1st overall. A bit timid, not enough dynamic ability, and isn't that engaged in the play either.

Interesting to hear from you (always regard your posts on prospects highly), who would you have as #1? Hischier? Or someone else entirely?

Edit: Whoops, should have read page two before asking.

I find it a more fascinating draft when there isn't one clear cut guy above everyone else.