C Connor McDavid - Erie Otters, OHL (2015 Draft) III

[King In The North]

My guess is because he's 16 Otters would rather use their older players this year before they leave the OHL (Brown and Fox) and use a fully developed (for junior at least) McDavid for next year as their go-to kid.

And he's 16 scoring at a 1.5 ppg.

 

[Patmac40]

My guess is because he's 16 Otters would rather use their older players this year before they leave the OHL (Brown and Fox) and use a fully developed (for junior at least) McDavid for next year as their go-to kid.

And he's 16 scoring at a 1.5 ppg.

Pretty much that. He's been pushed to the second line since the trade for Gaunce and guys like Brown and Fox play more prominent roles on the team. He hit 50 points in 31 games as a 16 year old, 1.61ppg.

 

[McFlyingV]

I would say he is dominating for 16, but I don't agree with the better than Crosby hype. Crosby put up much better numbers at his age (2.29ppg) and did so as a rookie.

 

[Tibetzz]

From what I've seen of his play so far this year, he plays a very high skill game with a lot of passing. His play always seems to be top notch, it's just because he's always setting people up, it's up to those players to put the puck into the net. Since he's left the top line, the quality of his linemates have (slightly) dropped, which have affected his production. Additionally, he has been injured twice this season. Both times around his injury, his production slowed, and after he recovered from the second injury, he was already on the second line.

His October numbers were absolutely phenomenal.

 

[garret9]

Results relative to age is a very important concept for prospects

 

[CNS]

I would say he is dominating for 16, but I don't agree with the better than Crosby hype. Crosby put up much better numbers at his age (2.29ppg) and did so as a rookie.

Has it not been established that you can't use PPG to compare Crosby to McDavid? We're comparing the Q to the OHL and Crosby was in the Q a decade ago now. Different game, different league. Can't just base it off of PPG.

 

[garret9]

I would say he is dominating for 16, but I don't agree with the better than Crosby hype. Crosby put up much better numbers at his age (2.29ppg) and did so as a rookie.

No doubt Crosby was more dominant, although it's closer than those raw numbers show. OHL has shown to be more difficult league to have a higher level of production...

Using NHLE* you can put them on a similar level to compare...

McDavid 0.483
Crosby 0.573

*NHLE uses the average percentage a players point production in his last year of junior relative to their first season in the NHL... so guys are in the OHL tend to retain a larger percentage of their ppg when they move to the NHL than WHL so hypothetically it's relatively closer in toughness to score

 

[Paxon]

To echo others who've mostly no doubt seen him and the OHL more on average than I have, the bottom line is he is dominating. Forget the 'exceptional status' crap -- yes, of course playing last year gives him an advantage over others in his age group -- the bottom line is he's putting up a point and a half as a 16 year old, and he's doing it without being put in the best position possible.

Forget the Crosby comparisons too, because if you're expecting Crosby numbers you're destined for disappointment, just like expecting Crosby to put up Gretzky numbers in the NHL was ridiculous for many reasons. McDavid is a different player than Crosby to the point that comparing them is nonsense. They play the game differently. Crosby was and is an elite skater, but his skating strengths are substantially different from McDavid's. Crosby's sense/IQ/vision were and always will be above McDavid's. McDavid's a more explosive skater and stickhandler than Crosby was at his age, at least as far as I recall. McDavid has a lot of growing into his body to do.

McDavid's looked ridiculously good in international tournaments against his age group (and older). I can't wait to see how he looks and what role he'll manage to have at the WJCs. Still, people should not put the "best prospect since Crosby" expectations on him. Evaluate him like you would any other #1 overall franchise prospect in his pre-draft year, and then again in his draft year. In so far as that goes, he's clearly been playing up to that level and I assume -- safely, I think -- that he'll do the same in his draft year. He's going to be a franchise center in the NHL and the #1 overall pick, and that's more than you can ask of any player.

 

[daver]

Has it not been established that you can't use PPG to compare Crosby to McDavid? We're comparing the Q to the OHL and Crosby was in the Q a decade ago now. Different game, different league. Can't just base it off of PPG.

No, of course stats cannot be looked at in a vacuum but at age 16 Crosby dominated his peers, McDavid is a star. Scoring levels have not changed over ten years, they might favour McDavid actually.

If the O is a better league then why aren't Tavares and Kane, who put up the best pre-draft offensive numbers in the last ten years besides Crosby, on Crosby's level?

Maybe things change next year but so far, unlike other generational prospects like Wayne, Mario, Lindros, and Crosby, McDavid has not separated himself at age 16.

 

[fedfed]

He's 16 and dominating (over 1.5 PPG in the CHL is dominating) against 18 and 19 year olds.

That's pretty much it. He doesn't have the physicality of Brown, for example. Yet.

 

[ottawah]

I know he has 48 points in 30 games but with all the hype surrounding him "Better than Crosby"...I thought he'd be doing better than 7th in OHL scoring, heck, he's third on his own team. I admit I haven't seen any Erie games, so perhaps someone can clue me in on McDavid's performance. The fact that he doesn't have a thread in the first three pages of the prospect board should be enough evidence that nobody really has anything to say about him when he is supposed to be a generational player in the making.

While he is my number one pick next year easily, he definitely is not dominating like Tavares or Crosby who were CHL players of the year at this age. Its also not just the OHL scoring, he has gone 4 straight international games (U18 and Subway series) without a point. That type of stuff would not happen to Crosby or Tavares.

I think people are putting unfair expectations on his shoulders. He's the best player in his draft and a future NHL superstar, and quite likely a future NHL points leader, but I do not think he will be a generational player such as Crosby.

 

[Thankstoo]

After watching him live for the 2nd time in 2 years last week when he was in Ottawa I have the following observations:

1) He seems to have grown in the last year. Last year he look slightly undersized, this year he seems to have slightly above average Junior size with some filling out to do.

2) Great comparison with top 3 selections in OHL draft the last 2 years (McDavid, Konecny, Strome), top overage junior (Fox), leading OHL scorer (Brown) along with potential 2014 NHL first rounder (Middleton) and former 2012 first rounder Gaunce.

Bottom line, shift after shift he was by far the best player on the ice. This, in a game he was held pointless. This kid is and will be a special player. Whether or not he ascends to the level of Crosby and other generational talents, I for one know he will be the type of player that I and others will line-up to watch regardless of what NHL team he ends on.

 

[scoutman1]

He's 16 and dominating (over 1.5 PPG in the CHL is dominating) against 18 and 19 year olds.

again it is what he is saying...he is dominating like a star in the making not a generational talent would....hence he is not Crosby esq...Crosby was so good he also got Danny Roussin drafted in the 2nd round then when he never played with Crosby he was a no body (before Crosby he was not a scorer)

 

[CP31]

Glad to know junior stats tell us how good a player will be.

 

[ottawah]

Glad to know junior stats tell us how good a player will be.

For everyone who has been a generational talent, they in fact have been.

The issue as I see is it not so much that everyone does not think he will bust, but that not everyone believes he is better than Crosby.

 

[Nicko999]

Production in the OHL at 16

McDavid: 1.61 PPG
Yakupov: 1.55 PPG
Hall: 1.43 PPG
Tavares: 2.00 PPG
Stamkos: 1.46 PPG

He's a superstar in the making and is probably the best prospect since Tavares but comparing him to Crosby is wrong. He's not a Crosby's level.

 

[Luck 6]

Production in the OHL at 16

McDavid: 1.61 PPG
Yakupov: 1.55 PPG
Hall: 1.43 PPG
Tavares: 2.00 PPG
Stamkos: 1.46 PPG

He's a superstar in the making and is probably the best prospect since Tavares but comparing him to Crosby is wrong. He's not a Crosby's level.

Crosby was 2.29 PPG at age 16 I believe. So yes, clearly better, but the Q is quite a bit more of a high scoring league than the OHL. I'm not saying McDavid will be as good as Crosby, but stats need to be taken in context.

 

[ottawah]

Crosby was 2.29 PPG at age 16 I believe. So yes, clearly better, but the Q is quite a bit more of a high scoring league than the OHL. I'm not saying McDavid will be as good as Crosby, but stats need to be taken in context.

Actually not so much. Stats for scoring favor the O generally now.

 

[fedfed]

Crosby was 2.29 PPG at age 16 I believe. So yes, clearly better, but the Q is quite a bit more of a high scoring league than the OHL. I'm not saying McDavid will be as good as Crosby, but stats need to be taken in context.

The scoring in the O from year to year differs much as well.

 

[scoutman1]

Glad to know junior stats tell us how good a player will be.

im a scout and the first to know stats do not tell you the story on a player BUT and there is a BIGGGGG BUT on this, a player who is a generational talent ala Gretzky, Lemieux, Lindros, Crosby have all dominated their leagues like no other player did, and if a player does not dominate like that then he is not a generational talent, McDavid is a star in the making in the class of a Tavares and a Stamkos but not a Crosby....if you maga star player puts up 40 points in 80 games well you know he is not the maga star....so even though stats do not tell a story on a player that is usually the case in guys like Jonathan Toews who puts up a point per game but in his stats you do not see his great two way play, his leadership and blah blah but with a guy like McDavid who some were saying could be better than Crosby (which is nuts) well then he better lead at least his team in points and the league....

As for a person above who said the QMJHL is a higher scoring league well than that is reverting back about 8 or so years maybe even longer because the OHL is right up there with the QMJHL for scoring...the QMJHL has not been the scoring machine league in a LONG time.

 

[crazyaces**]

The season is only half way through and McDavid is 6th in scoring, he's on a 100+ point pace and if the puck starts to go in a little bit more for him who knows he could lead the league yet! (more likely ppg).

 

[JCF]

Some counter-points to McDavid's criticisms:

1. He is currently on the second line, he is getting less minutes and now has less quality linemates, I would
not expect a second liner to be 1st in team scoring, much less blowing his teammates away.

2. Unlike exceptional status comparable like Ekblad, Tavares, and even Day, McDavid is not a physical
beast, he is solid, but still has much to fill out. When this happens, expect some takeoff. Personally, I
think that's going to be next year, after working out with Roberts in the summer.

3. The kid's gonna have a similar point output to Crosby. Yes, he can light it up with the best of them, but
he will be a pass-first kind of guy. In the NHL i expect probably 20-75, or 25-70 type seasons in his
prime.

 

[ottawah]

Some counter-points to McDavid's criticisms:

I may take offense to that in that I do not see what people are saying here as criticism. If anything it is criticizing those writers who claim he is a generational talent and better than Crosby. I'vwe not seen anyone say they would not take him first overall, that he will be a bust, etc just pointing out generational players do not end up third on their team in scoring. I'd hardly call saying he is not a generational talent better than Crosby a criticism.

1. He is currently on the second line, he is getting less minutes and now has less quality linemates, I would
not expect a second liner to be 1st in team scoring, much less blowing his teammates away.

I am going from memory here, but when I think of the generational talents I have seen at this age (Crosby, Lindros, Lemeiux) there was never any question as to which line they were playing on.

2. Unlike exceptional status comparable like Ekblad, Tavares, and even Day, McDavid is not a physical
beast, he is solid, but still has much to fill out. When this happens, expect some takeoff. Personally, I
think that's going to be next year, after working out with Roberts in the summer.

3. The kid's gonna have a similar point output to Crosby. Yes, he can light it up with the best of them, but
he will be a pass-first kind of guy. In the NHL i expect probably 20-75, or 25-70 type seasons in his
prime.

I'm not sure if you looked, but Crosby is not a 95 point guy in the NHL. Those are not similar numbers.

I personally think he will be better than that, probably perennially top 10 in scoring and winning a few art rosses.

 

[JCF]

I may take offense to that in that I do not see what people are saying here as criticism. If anything it is criticizing those writers who claim he is a generational talent and better than Crosby. I'vwe not seen anyone say they would not take him first overall, that he will be a bust, etc just pointing out generational players do not end up third on their team in scoring. I'd hardly call saying he is not a generational talent better than Crosby a criticism.



I am going from memory here, but when I think of the generational talents I have seen at this age (Crosby, Lindros, Lemeiux) there was never any question as to which line they were playing on.



I'm not sure if you looked, but Crosby is not a 95 point guy in the NHL. Those are not similar numbers.

I personally think he will be better than that, probably perennially top 10 in scoring and winning a few art rosses.

Crosby is on pace for 110 points this year, that's not all too far off. Also, this post wasn't meant to say he is better or equal to Crosby, which I am certain that McDavid won't be. It was in response to people pointing out his lack of record-breaking junior numbers, if anything I am comparing him to Tavares, etc. Also, McDavid is definitely first line capable on Erie (6th in OHL scoring), the staff, smartly, want to distribute scoring through the lineup.

 

[Leafs87]

He is alway playing with Connor Brown, who has 65 points in 32 games