Value of: BUF - SEA expansion draft trade

[Zach716]

This is pretty off base. Okposo while not not worth 6mil plays a very solid role in the bottom-6 and is a locker room staple. If we were desperate to shed salary (which we aren't) we could easily retain 50%, clear up 3mil and even get a positive asset back, maybe a late round pick.

 

[Yatzhee]

The price will be higher than that to dump salary. Seattle can create multiple bidding wars IF they choose to go with the approach of short term pain for long term gain and hoard a bunch of 1sts for taking on dumps. However, they could also look at all these cap strapped teams and how many UFA’s had to take bargain 1yr deals and offer those guys slightly more and actually build a pretty damn good team.

My personal opinion is they should take a balanced approach and do a bit of both. Point being, they can pick and choose what cap dump they take, but it will almost certainly come with a 1st attached.

Agreed.

Given Dahlin is due his post ELC contract and if the Sabres and Hall work out and they wish to re-sign him, getting Okposo off the books helps.

Mitts and 1st top 10 protected I think should do it.

 

[mouser]

I was wondering how much it would cost Buffalo for Seattle to take on Kyle Okposos salary next year. Obviously KO is vastly overpaid @ 6mil until 2023 but he is still good in a bottom 6 role and brings leadership. He has a 15 team no trade list, I’m not sure if that effects expansion draft rules but anyway.

to SEA

Casey Mittlestadt

to BUF

Future Considerations

With the agreement being that Seattle selects Kyle Okposo in the expansion draft.

Casey is a boom/bust middle 6 prospect who has shown flashes of skill but needs some time to develop (the 2020/21 season will be very telling). Many buffalo fans have him inked to be protected in the expansion draft because he’s the type of player buffalo needs more of (skilled, top 6 potential, cheap) but I think he doesn’t fit into the mold buffalo needs to be successful. I’m curious how far off the value is and if something could be worked out.

Expansion proposals like this are nearly impossible to evaluate. Like Vegas a few years ago Seattle will likely swing a few deals where they take on bad contracts with sweeteners. But the # of those deals are limited and teams will be aggressively competing for them.

For perspective here are the expansion draft deals Vegas swung:

2017-06-21	Golden Knights	• 2017 fifth round pick (#142-Jonathan Dugan)	• future considerations (?)	trade with Bruins
2017-06-21	Golden Knights	• 2017 sixth round pick (#161-Jiri Patera)	• Golden Knights agreed to not select an unspecified player in expansion draft	trade with Sabres
2017-06-21	Golden Knights	• 2020 second round pick (#46-Drew Commesso)	• Golden Knights agreed to select Marc-Andre Fleury in expansion draft	trade with Penguins
2017-06-21	Golden Knights	• Alex Tuch	• 2017 or 2018 third round pick (2018 #92-Connor Dewar) • Golden Knights agreed to not select Marco Scandella or Matt Dumba in expansion draft	trade with Wild
2017-06-21	Golden Knights	• Mikhail Grabovski • Jake Bischoff • 2017 first round pick (#15-Erik Brannstrom) • 2019 second round pick (#54-Robert Mastrosimone)	• Golden Knights agreed to select Jean-Francois Berube / J-F Berube / J.F. Berube in expansion draft	trade with Islanders
2017-06-21	Golden Knights	• Reilly Smith	• 2018 fourth round pick (#123-Jack Gorniak)	trade with Panthers
2017-06-21	Golden Knights	• rights to Nikita Gusev • 2017 second round pick (#45-Alexandre Texier) • 2018 fourth round pick (#115-Paul Cotter)	• Golden Knights agreed to select Jason Garrison in expansion draft	trade with Lightning
2017-06-21	Golden Knights	• Shea Theodore	• Golden Knights agreed to select Clayton Stoner in expansion draft	trade with Ducks
2017-06-21	Golden Knights	• David Clarkson • 2017 first round pick (#24-Kristian Vesalainen) • 2019 second round pick (#50-Samuel Fagemo)	• Golden Knights agreed to select William Karlsson in expansion draft	trade with Blue Jackets
2017-06-21	Golden Knights	• 2017 first round pick (#13-Nick Suzuki) • 2019 third round pick (#82-Michael Vukojevic)	• 2017 first round pick (#24-Kristian Vesalainen) • Golden Knights agreed to select Chris Thorburn in expansion draft	trade with Jets

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[gstommylee]

Or Seattle takes Hall as their pick from buffalo in their 2 day excusive FA window assuming Hall agrees to what Seattle is offering and foregos the FA market. In this scenario buffalo ends up losing nothing since its unlikely Hall would agree to a long term contract to remain with Buffalo.

 

[HyPnOtiK]

Lol what? He’s one of the hardest working guys on the team?

Can't tell if this a joke? The guy takes physical fitness as serious as Phil Kessel does.

 

[ThatGuy22]

Information is missing here. Who is the likely player Seattle will take without making the deal? Needs to be weighed against the return.

 

[sufferer]

Lol what? He’s one of the hardest working guys on the team?

Fortnite doesn't count.

edit: Seems you had him confused with Okposo given your other comments, in which case I'd agree with everything you said.

 

[My Cozen Dylan]

Information is missing here. Who is the likely player Seattle will take without making the deal? Needs to be weighed against the return.

Colin Miller maybe?

 

[Sinbad]

No way that deal works with Buffalo.
Maybe we offer a second and they take Okposo . But we get a AHL prospect from Seattle.

I will have what he Is drinking!

 

[Djp]

Or Seattle takes Hall as their pick from buffalo in their 2 day excusive FA window assuming Hall agrees to what Seattle is offering and foregos the FA market. In this scenario buffalo ends up losing nothing since its unlikely Hall would agree to a long term contract to remain with Buffalo.

it takes two. Hall has to agree to sign there, they can’t just take him.
Theisxueof Hall resigns depends greatly on how he does in Buffalo with Eichel. Buffalo can resign Hall.

Information is missing here. Who is the likely player Seattle will take without making the deal? Needs to be weighed against the return.

assuming 7-3-1
F Eichel, Reinhart, Skinner, Olofsson
Others they could protect. ..Thompson, Mittlestadt, Asplund
Exempt..Cozens, Ruotsalienen
They can leave Hall as a UFA thrn sign him.

D Dahlin, Jokiharju, Ristolainen

likely players exposed who they could take

D-Borgen
F-Thompson, Asplund, Mittlestadt if exposed ( very unlikely)

Buffalo could trade Mitts along with say Montour and get a young LD then go 8-1 protection. They could also trade Reinhart for a young Dman they protect then sign snd protect hall Ir protect mittlestadt

 

[gstommylee]

it takes two. Hall has to agree to sign there, they can’t just take him.
Theisxueof Hall resigns depends greatly on how he does in Buffalo with Eichel. Buffalo can resign Hall.



assuming 7-3-1
F Eichel, Reinhart, Skinner, Olofsson
Others they could protect. ..Thompson, Mittlestadt, Asplund
Exempt..Cozens, Ruotsalienen
They can leave Hall as a UFA thrn sign him.

D Dahlin, Jokiharju, Ristolainen

likely players exposed who they could take

D-Borgen
F-Thompson, Asplund, Mittlestadt if exposed ( very unlikely)

Buffalo could trade Mitts along with say Montour and get a young LD then go 8-1 protection. They could also trade Reinhart for a young Dman they protect then sign snd protect hall Ir protect mittlestadt

What makes you think he will re-sign? He only signed with Buffalo cause they were the only one willing to give him 8m even for just 1 year. He took a 1 year contract for a reason he wants to test the FA market and didn't want the virus to determine what he gets.

He'll probably want to be on a cup contending team that is willing to give him the contract he wants.

 

[mouser]

What makes you think he will re-sign? He only signed with Buffalo cause they were the only one willing to give him 8m even for just 1 year. He took a 1 year contract for a reason he wants to test the FA market and didn't want the virus to determine what he gets.

He'll probably want to be on a cup contending team that is willing to give him the contract he wants.

Either way, Hall wouldn’t change Buffalo’s expansion draft protection list.

 

[gstommylee]

Either way, Hall wouldn’t change Buffalo’s expansion draft protection list.

Right i was merely pointing out if somehow Seattle was able to sign Hall during their 2 day exclusive FA window (thus having him be our selection from buffalo), Buffalo wouldn't really lose anything since i find it unlikely hall wants to remain with buffalo long term. In my opinion that would be a blessing in disguise for buffalo if Hall signs with Seattle during that 2 day window. Its a question of what would buffalo lose to Seattle if hall would rather test the market first before deciding to end up with Seattle.

 

[LeapOnOver]

I’m not.



It isn’t.

The guy almost died and should’ve retired then. He didn’t and works his ass off every shift he plays. I didn’t say he’s good I didn’t say he needs to stay I didn’t say he’s important to the chemistry of this team.

I said he’s a hard working player and that’s true. He doesn’t take a shift off and works as hard as he possibly can. He’s not fast anymore and shouldn’t be playing anything more than a 4th line role that gets him 5-10 minutes a game with a little second unit pp time.

Say he’s done and shouldn’t be playing anymore and I’ll never argue with you. Tell me he needs to work harder and I’ll tell you to actually watch the Sabres and not just look at the stats

He was always a hustler on the Isles as well. I doubt personality like that changes. I haven't watched him much since he's left, but there's no reason for me to doubt that's still accurate.

 

[DingDongCharlie]

Id offer them a 2nd to take Okposo, but Francis is too smart to fall for that. He'll demand a 1st and that is where talks end and they go sign Hall to 7x$8m instead.

The Kraken will likely take Lazar and call it a day. Nothnig of real value on the Sabres will be left exposed so no big loss.

Buffalo is in a good position with multiple impending UFA's. You might have to expose a bigger name player if one of your pending UFA sign and waiting that out and potentially letting a guy like Hall hit the market could be a big mistake.

Pre-UFA I don't believe Hall even had Buffalo in mind. Worked out once Ralph and Kevyn Adams got their opportunity to pitch him. I think it's more likely Mittlelstadt is selected but again not a huge loss for Buffalo

 

[gstommylee]

Buffalo is in a good position with multiple impending UFA's. You might have to expose a bigger name player if one of your pending UFA sign and waiting that out and potentially letting a guy like Hall hit the market could be a big mistake.

Pre-UFA I don't believe Hall even had Buffalo in mind. Worked out once Ralph and Kevyn Adams got their opportunity to pitch him. I think it's more likely Mittlelstadt is selected but again not a huge loss for Buffalo

Hall is likely to test the market anyways barring some chance he decides to want to come to Seattle and signs during our 2 day exclusive FA window. He went with buffalo cause no one else was going to give him 8 million for one year and he didn't want the virus mess to determine what the contract would be.

 

[Seanaconda]

in the ED they have to take some high salaries

I see thrm taking 8-10 $4M+ salaried players. They aren’t going to take total wastes of players. From these thry collectpicks and prospects.

Thrn they pick 10-12 under 25 decent players who are exposed.

then the rest are looked Stasl players they draft the trade.

at the end of this before free agency they’d have

18 nhl players
4-6 who can be sent down through waivers
6-8 players in an ELC in 20-21
6-8 prospects who don’t start their first full contract year until 21/22 or later.
Whoever they drafted in 3021

Dont they have to hit like 50 mill with 30 players ? Its 1.666forever if that's around the target

 

[BlueBaron]

They are going to want a first. Casey would have appeal but they are going to want picks and blue chips. I'm not sure what Casey is but he's not looking like an impact player.

 

[Djp]

Dont they have to hit like 50 mill with 30 players ? Its 1.666forever if that's around the target

top 23 need to meet cap floor which is low 60s

draft 10 $4M-$6M players gets thrm to $55M
10 players are these lower salaried players of $2M5 pkayers are still on ELC or it’s ending after 20 so contract under 1
23 man would be around $65M-$70M. Thus room for 1-2 UFA signings
5 are picked and traded

 

[sabresfan65]

Dont they have to hit like 50 mill with 30 players ? Its 1.666forever if that's around the target

Only 29 players, they don't get one from Vegas.

 

[Seanaconda]

Only 29 players, they don't get one from Vegas.

Aren't they the 32 team

 

[Seanaconda]

top 23 need to meet cap floor which is low 60s

draft 10 $4M-$6M players gets thrm to $55M
10 players are these lower salaried players of $2M5 pkayers are still on ELC or it’s ending after 20 so contract under 1
23 man would be around $65M-$70M. Thus room for 1-2 UFA signings
5 are picked and traded

I thought they had to hit a number lower than the min with their draft picks and then had the rest of the off season to make it up to league min if they are under

 

[Djp]

I thought they had to hit a number lower than the min with their draft picks and then had the rest of the off season to make it up to league min if they are under

no. It’s the top 23 players with QO for RFAs used to make the cap floor. lije I said that isn’t that hard if they take 10 $4M-$6M players who add up to around $53M

it’s why vegas took some of the players they did that were high salaries. In taking those players they usually got picks and prospects. They made 10 trades acquitting picks and prospects for draft considerations. Then they made about 5 post draft trades of players the picked for futures.

withteams desparateto unload high cap players, there will be a bidding war offering Seattle stuff. Thry can’t take all high cap hits with cap compliance rules where top 23 can’t exceed cap ceiling. Then they also get offered stuff to not take exposed high players...for example the Isles had to expose a young Pullockand give up a 1st+

 

[Leafs87]

This is pretty off base. Okposo while not not worth 6mil plays a very solid role in the bottom-6 and is a locker room staple. If we were desperate to shed salary (which we aren't) we could easily retain 50%, clear up 3mil and even get a positive asset back, maybe a late round pick.

Two years ago I’d agree. However guys like him sign between 700-1.5 nowadays.

most teams are switching to the heavy star contract and min deals for rest model

 

[Oddbob]

Only 29 players, they don't get one from Vegas.

Right, except there are still 30 other teams outside Vegas.