Confirmed Signing with Link: [BUF] Jeff Skinner signs extension (8 years, $9M AAV)

[thefutures]

I wasn't a fan at all when it happened, but it is looking better every day. No idea how players of this caliber are getting contracts like this.

McDavid contract is great too.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Disagree with the Marner/Eichel thing. Eichel may be a good playmaker too, but he's definitely more of a shooter than Marner is. I mean, Eichel was top 5 in the entire NHL in # of shots last year. He shot as much as anyone in the game and his shot is supposed to be a major strength of his. Marner had 233 shots last year, Eichel had 303. Same story in previous years, Eichel was outshooting Marner by pretty significant amounts despite Eichel missing 15-20 games each season and Marner missing near zero games. That's a big difference showing to me that Eichel is more of a shooter than Marner.

True, Eichel is more of a shooter than Marner, but even Marner was 29th in the NHL in shots this year among forwards. Even with a large number of shots, I saw a lot more playmaking with Skinner on his line this year so maybe my view is a bit skewed. Fair point though.

Some good points. I think in a year or two Eichel's contract will be looked at as a bargain -- just saying it's not now -- it's more market value or a bit above. But as players like Marner, Matthews (already done), Point maybe, etc get $10M+ deals, and the cap continues to increase pushing all other salaries up, Eichel's contract will become more of a bargain.

Agree

 

[TorontoTrades]

Is he overpaid? Sure.

But to put things into perspective.


An average American Football game lasts for 3 hours and 12 minutes. An average play lasts for 4 seconds. Active game time: 11 minutes. Time spent on showing replays: 17 minutes.

Nothing compares.. 2-3 of the best paid athletes in this world are American footballers.

what?

 

[Tripod]

what?

Someone did a study on actual football games and how much "game action" there actually was. The rest of teh time is just the clock running down.

 

[TorontoTrades]

Someone did a study on actual football games and how much "game action" there actually was. The rest of teh time is just the clock running down.

Yes. Neat. That has zero to do with NHL salary structure.

 

[mashedpotato]

This doesn’t seem to be as black and white as you want it to be. It’s not tank or Win the Cup. This looks like they’re trying for average.

I hope I’m wrong but this just seems like another false start towards being a competitive team. The Sabres went into rebuilding hoping to acquire a group of good young prospects. Their drafting has been terrible. Now they’re just like “screw it! We planned on drafting for a few years to get a bunch of prospects. Now those year’s are over and it’s time to win”! But they forgot to get the prospects they tanked for and just decided to try and win without them. When you are as bad as the Sabres have been, 1 player/draft isn’t enough to turn it around.

Lol @ trying for average.

 

[Dogewow]

It's called addiction by subtraction. He was a 90 foot player with the Canes. Rod wanted him gone. in retrospect, it was a smart move.
Good luck with him and that contract.

Oh please spare us the mental gymnastics. With the warts in his game, he's still a 40 goal, 60 point top line winger and one of the most consistent goal scorers in the game. It was a terrible return on the trade. Just acknowledge it and walk away from it without being sour.

 

[The S5]

Oh please spare us the mental gymnastics. With the warts in his game, he's still a 40 goal, 60 point top line winger and one of the most consistent goal scorers in the game. It was a terrible return on the trade. Just acknowledge it and walk away from it without being sour.

Sour? Are you kidding me? Like I said, addition by subtraction.

 

[Bounces R Way]

Woof. Costs a lot to keep talent in Buffalo. Good for Skinner I guess but man these contracts are getting out of hand.

b-b-b-butt the cap is going up! the new TV deal! the league has never been so profitable! the PROJECTIONS!

Same things said before every bubble ever bursting ever. Jeff Skinner is a run of the mill 30 goal 60 point guy. That's a good player but they all can't be making this kind of coin. There's not enough to go around.

 

[obey86]

Oh please spare us the mental gymnastics. With the warts in his game, he's still a 40 goal, 60 point top line winger and one of the most consistent goal scorers in the game. It was a terrible return on the trade. Just acknowledge it and walk away from it without being sour.

The Hurricanes got better without Skinner. He has a point, even if you may disagree.

 

[Chainshot]

The Hurricanes got better without Skinner. He has a point, even if you may disagree.

The Hurricanes finally got goaltending after years of being a good metric team that couldn't get a save.

 

[obey86]

The Hurricanes finally got goaltending after years of being a good metric team that couldn't get a save.

I'm sure it helps defensively to not have a one dimensional scorer who doesn't play defense out there for 17 min a night too.

Point is, they didn't miss Skinner's 30 goals one bit this year.

 

[tsujimoto74]

I'm sure it helps defensively to not have a one dimensional scorer who doesn't play defense out there for 17 min a night too.

Point is, they didn't miss Skinner's 30 goals one bit this year.

Their team metrics have been good for a while. Wingers aren't very important to team D (negligible individual impact unless they're really, really bad (e.g., Laine) or really, really good (e.g., Stone)), and Skinner isn't so utterly atrocious to as to buck the trend and make a significant individual impact. The Canes were better this year, but it wasn't because Skinner was gone. It was because they finally had a player step up and play like a #1C and got actual NHL-caliber goaltending.

 

[Duffman955]

I'm sure it helps defensively to not have a one dimensional scorer who doesn't play defense out there for 17 min a night too.

Point is, they didn't miss Skinner's 30 goals one bit this year.

They only scored 5 goals in a whole series

They definitely missed scoring

 

[tsujimoto74]

I wasn't a fan at all when it happened, but it is looking better every day. No idea how players of this caliber are getting contracts like this.

Because this is what cap inflation does. There's a reason everyone thought Draisaitl and O'Reilly, to name a few players, were overpaid when they signed their contracts, but boy it sure doesn't look that way now. Skinner's $9M is going to look like a considerably lesser cap commitment in 3 years than it does now. That's just the nature of the cap going up every season.

 

[The S5]

Their team metrics have been good for a while. Wingers aren't very important to team D (negligible individual impact unless they're really, really bad (e.g., Laine) or really, really good (e.g., Stone)), and Skinner isn't so utterly atrocious to as to buck the trend and make a significant individual impact. The Canes were better this year, but it wasn't because Skinner was gone. It was because they finally had a player step up and play like a #1C and got actual NHL-caliber goaltending.

They weren't better solely on Skinner being gone, but it was certainly a factor. For years, Skinner would be a black hole offensively. Trying to do too much and turning pucks over at the blue line that led to odd man rushes. He would have long stretches of invisibility(lack of effort).
It wasn't a secret that Rod tried to get him to play a 200 foot, responsible game, but the guy just didn't/wouldn't/couldn't do it.
When Rod took over, he knew the style of play that he wanted, and knew Skinner would be a square peg in a round hole. I don't know for sure, but moving him out had to be one of the teams priorities. This is why I said addition by subtraction.
Could they have gotten a better return? Maybe, but there were limited suitors and they accomplished what they wanted, moving him off of the roster.
Outside of all this, there isn't any sane argument to justify Buffalo giving Skinner that contract. NONE. He isn't that type of player.

 

[tsujimoto74]

They weren't better solely on Skinner being gone, but it was certainly a factor. For years, Skinner would be a black hole offensively. Trying to do too much and turning pucks over at the blue line that led to odd man rushes. He would have long stretches of invisibility(lack of effort).
It wasn't a secret that Rod tried to get him to play a 200 foot, responsible game, but the guy just didn't/wouldn't/couldn't do it.
When Rod took over, he knew the style of play that he wanted, and knew Skinner would be a square peg in a round hole. I don't know for sure, but moving him out had to be one of the teams priorities. This is why I said addition by subtraction.
Could they have gotten a better return? Maybe, but there were limited suitors and they accomplished what they wanted, moving him off of the roster.
Outside of all this, there isn't any sane argument to justify Buffalo giving Skinner that contract. NONE. He isn't that type of player.

I can think of a good 40 reasons why it was a good move for the Sabres to keep Skinner in Buffalo, even if he's a bit overpaid.

 

[The S5]

Ime

I can think of a good 40 reasons why it was a good move for the Sabres to keep Skinner in Buffalo, even if he's a bit overpaid.

You bet. He's all yours.

 

[obey86]

They only scored 5 goals in a whole series

They definitely missed scoring

Ah yes, the almighty 4 game sample size.

 

[Syckle78]

Sour? Are you kidding me? Like I said, addition by subtraction.

Actually addiction by subtraction is what you said. Regardless it was a terrible trade. Nothing wrong with admitting that.

 

[obey86]

Because this is what cap inflation does. There's a reason everyone thought Draisaitl and O'Reilly, to name a few players, were overpaid when they signed their contracts, but boy it sure doesn't look that way now. Skinner's $9M is going to look like a considerably lesser cap commitment in 3 years than it does now. That's just the nature of the cap going up every season.

Draisaitl was coming off of a 77 point season and was just 21 years old.

ROR was coming off of a season with less points than Skinner (55 vs 63) but again, was younger (25 vs. 27) and plays a more valuable position than Skinner does.

At the time time Draisaitl signed the cap was 75M, meaning his contract was 11.3% of the cap. And at the time ROR signed the cap was 71.4M, meaning his contract was 10.5% of the cap. Skinner's new contract at 9M is 10.8% of the projected 83M cap. So the contracts were all in the same range percentage wise (of the cap) despite Skinner being older, worse, and less valuable than both Drai and ROR.

 

[The S5]

Actually addiction by subtraction is what you said. Regardless it was a terrible trade. Nothing wrong with admitting that.

You literally replied to my post stating "addition by subtraction". Why would you question what I said?
If you read my entire post you would see that I said they might have been able to get more, but they were dealing with limited suitors. I believe that priority one was to move him. Getting the best return based on circumstances was secondary.

 

[Duffman955]

Ah yes, the almighty 4 game sample size.

Did u need a 82 playoff game sample size

 

[tsujimoto74]

Draisaitl was coming off of a 77 point season and was just 21 years old.

ROR was coming off of a season with less points than Skinner (55 vs 63) but again, was younger (25 vs. 27) and plays a more valuable position than Skinner does.

At the time time Draisaitl signed the cap was 75M, meaning his contract was 11.3% of the cap. And at the time ROR signed the cap was 71.4M, meaning his contract was 10.5% of the cap. Skinner's new contract at 9M is 10.8% of the projected 83M cap. So the contracts were all in the same range percentage wise (of the cap) despite Skinner being older, worse, and less valuable than both Drai and ROR.

Draisaitl's deal is also mostly RFA years. Plus Skinner is a fantastic ES goal-scorer, and we've seen time and again that you pay a premium for that. You're missing the real point, though, which is that HF tends to do a bad job at assessing player value vs cap inflation. ROR and Draisaitl's deals were near universally maligned. You look at player salaries now just a few years later, and those contracts both look anywhere between fair to good bargains.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

I've noticed a lot of people bringing up cap percentage as an explanation for why Skinner is not overpaid here. I don't really buy that argument.

Assuming the salary cap is $83M next season, Skinner at $9M will be making 10.84% of the salary cap.

Over the past 5 seasons, Jeff Skinner has averaged 29 goals and 49 points per season. Over that same time frame, forwards within +/- $0.5M of 10.84% of the salary cap have averaged 25 goals and 65 points per season.

I've seen a lot of people bringing up goals above replacement. Skinner does average 10.84 GAR per Evolving-Hockey's model, and 8.126 GAR per Corsica's model. The average forward averages 9.6 GAR per Evolving-Hockey and 9.2 per Corsica, and the average player at any position averages 10.1 GAR per Evolving-Hockey and 8.3 per Corsica. When it comes to goals above replacement, Skinner averaging 9.5 GAR per season over both models is better than the average forward in that cap range averaging 9.4 GAR, or the average player at any position averaging 9.2 GAR. So, if you dogmatically refer to GAR, as I've seen some posters in these threads do, then Skinner is fairly paid.

I think the question is: why do GAR models flatter Skinner so heavily? He isn't exactly a great player in the defensive zone. I recognize that over large sample sizes, GAR tends to flatter the players who actually are excellent players, but I do think that there are some outliers, and I do think that

For reference, here is every player from the past 5 seasons who made within +/- $0.5M of 10.84% of the salary cap:

Spoiler

Season	Player	GAR (Evolving-Hockey)	GAR (Corsica.Hockey)	GAR (Average)
2018-2019	PK Subban	-0.70	0.68	-0.01
2018-2019	Sidney Crosby	24.90	11.07	17.99
2018-2019	Corey Perry	-3.40	0.86	-1.27
2018-2019	Henrik Lundqvist	12.30	5.94	9.12
2018-2019	Leon Draisaitl	18.10	29.25	23.68
2018-2019	Steven Stamkos	19.40	28.61	24.01
2018-2019	AVERAGE	11.77	12.74	12.25
2018-2019	FORWARD AVERAGE	14.75	17.45	16.10
2018-2019	JEFF SKINNER	17.60	14.62	16.11
2017-2018	Corey Perry	1.80	-0.81	0.50
2017-2018	Henrik Lundqvist	20.30	6.75	13.53
2017-2018	Leon Draisaitl	10.70	5.31	8.01
2017-2018	Steven Stamkos	18.00	12.02	15.01
2017-2018	Claude Giroux	24.40	22.32	23.36
2017-2018	Ryan Getzlaf	11.10	3.69	7.40
2017-2018	Phil Kessel	9.60	5.35	7.48
2017-2018	Ryan Johansen	1.60	2.75	2.18
2017-2018	Joe Thornton	4.40	3.42	3.91
2017-2018	Brent Burns	-3.30	4.09	0.40
2017-2018	Victor Hedman	12.90	1.40	7.15
2017-2018	Shea Weber	-2.40	1.49	-0.46
2017-2018	Rick Nash	4.50	11.88	8.19
2017-2018	Evgeny Kuznetsov	9.10	10.44	9.77
2017-2018	AVERAGE	8.76	6.44	7.60
2017-2018	FORWARD AVERAGE	9.52	7.64	8.58
2017-2018	JEFF SKINNER	5.40	9.31	7.36
2016-2017	Claude Giroux	4.90	6.39	5.65
2016-2017	Jakub Voracek	1.40	8.10	4.75
2016-2017	Ryan Getzlaf	11.60	8.01	9.81
2016-2017	Phil Kessel	6.30	2.88	4.59
2016-2017	Shea Weber	6.20	6.80	6.50
2016-2017	Rick Nash	2.50	4.91	3.71
2016-2017	Dustin Byfuglien	4.90	1.89	3.40
2016-2017	Zach Parise	5.30	-0.54	2.38
2016-2017	Ryan Suter	17.40	10.89	14.15
2016-2017	Ryan O'Reilly	12.20	8.82	10.51
2016-2017	Vladimir Tarasenko	13.70	22.28	17.99
2016-2017	Pavel Datsyuk
2016-2017	Jason Spezza	7.20	0.58	3.89
2016-2017	Sergei Bobrovsky	58.90	44.73	51.82
2016-2017	AVERAGE	11.73	9.67	10.70
2016-2017	FORWARD AVERAGE	7.23	6.83	7.03
2016-2017	JEFF SKINNER	16.10	9.95	13.03
2015-2016	Claude Giroux	4.60	2.61	3.61
2015-2016	Ryan Getzlaf	9.50	13.14	11.32
2015-2016	Eric Staal	3.50	7.70	5.60
2015-2016	Phil Kessel	10.80	1.04	5.92
2015-2016	Shea Weber	10.00	12.24	11.12
2015-2016	Rick Nash	2.90	2.48	2.69
2015-2016	Zach Parise	-0.20	3.15	1.48
2015-2016	Ryan Suter	15.70	5.22	10.46
2015-2016	Vladimir Tarasenko	12.20	24.66	18.43
2015-2016	Pavel Datsyuk	13.10	12.29	12.70
2015-2016	Jason Spezza	6.40	21.55	13.98
2015-2016	Steven Stamkos	9.30	15.08	12.19
2015-2016	Sergei Bobrovsky	2.90	-3.33	-0.22
2015-2016	Bobby Ryan	7.90	-0.27	3.82
2015-2016	David Krejci	11.20	0.99	6.10
2015-2016	Kris Letang	9.20	9.09	9.15
2015-2016	AVERAGE	8.06	7.98	8.02
2015-2016	FORWARD AVERAGE	7.60	8.70	8.15
2015-2016	JEFF SKINNER	12.60	3.69	8.10
2014-2015	Phil Kessel	-4.20	-2.11	-3.16
2014-2015	Shea Weber	9.00	2.07	5.54
2014-2015	Rick Nash	11.00	12.02	11.51
2014-2015	Zach Parise	10.70	4.73	7.72
2014-2015	Ryan Suter	6.10	4.05	5.08
2014-2015	Steven Stamkos	12.10	11.47	11.79
2014-2015	Pavel Datsyuk	15.90	8.96	12.43
2014-2015	Kris Letang	9.00	5.08	7.04
2014-2015	Brian Campbell	6.10	2.34	4.22
2014-2015	Tuukka Rask	30.70	7.65	19.18
2014-2015	Pekka Rinne	22.10	6.52	14.31
2014-2015	Daniel Sedin	7.80	-1.22	3.29
2014-2015	Henrik Sedin	10.70	7.11	8.91
2014-2015	Paul Stastny	4.70	5.54	5.12
2014-2015	Drew Doughty	7.40	3.65	5.53
2014-2015	Jason Spezza	10.90	3.78	7.34
2014-2015	Dion Phaneuf	2.00	-4.77	-1.39
2014-2015	AVERAGE	10.12	4.52	7.32
2014-2015	FORWARD AVERAGE	8.84	5.59	7.22
2014-2015	JEFF SKINNER	2.50	3.06	2.78

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Looking through those names, I'm seeing a lot of names that I would either classify as "bad contract" or "better than Jeff Skinner.

I think that the GAR values for every player can also illustrate how that statistic is kind of flawed. For example, I actually think that Victor Hedman is quite overrated, but he won the Norris Trophy in 2017-2018 and scored 63 points. How on earth did Jeff Skinner, a mediocre defensive forward who scored 49 points, have a higher GAR in 2017-2018 than Hedman? Should we really place our faith - and should Buffalo place their faith in the form of $72 million dollars - in a statistic which says that Jeff Skinner in 2017-2018 was better than Victor Hedman in 2017-2018? Probably not...

This contract is probably better than the alternative for Buffalo - letting him walk - but it is not a good contract. Just screaming "cap hit percentage!!!" at people who might completely understand cap hit percentage, and still think it is a bad contract, does not change that.