Prospect Info: Brendan Lemieux

[Romang67]

Nice! I watched an interview from last year and he was already well spoke and seemed concerned about being "part of a strong organization" and "surrounded by strong players." He must be happy to be a Jet! I'm happy to hear his latest interview shows that his development as a person is heading in the right direction. I feel like his continued growth off the ice will allow him to maximize his effectiveness as a teammate on the ice. Keep it up Brendy!

With all this new depth in the Jets organization I expect he will be developed slowly with some time in the AHL getting quality minutes in all situations. I can see Petan, Copp, and Morrissey doing the same. Ehlers, on the other hand, I can see in the NHL as soon as this year (during the playoffs if Halifax is out quick and the Jets are in). His skating, puck control, decision making, and shot are already good enough for any level - so I think.

Back to Lemieux. I'd like to see him improve his discipline during the playoffs for Barrie. His excessive penalties do hurt his team and he needs to pick his battles. I'm guessing his poor +/- is a direct reflection of his PIM's and a sub-par PK in Barrie. Does anyone have stats to back up this thought?

+/- is only affected by even strength goals when the player is on the ice.

 

[truck]

Nice! I watched an interview from last year and he was already well spoke and seemed concerned about being "part of a strong organization" and "surrounded by strong players." He must be happy to be a Jet! I'm happy to hear his latest interview shows that his development as a person is heading in the right direction. I feel like his continued growth off the ice will allow him to maximize his effectiveness as a teammate on the ice. Keep it up Brendy!

With all this new depth in the Jets organization I expect he will be developed slowly with some time in the AHL getting quality minutes in all situations. I can see Petan, Copp, and Morrissey doing the same. Ehlers, on the other hand, I can see in the NHL as soon as this year (during the playoffs if Halifax is out quick and the Jets are in). His skating, puck control, decision making, and shot are already good enough for any level - so I think.

Back to Lemieux. I'd like to see him improve his discipline during the playoffs for Barrie. His excessive penalties do hurt his team and he needs to pick his battles. I'm guessing his poor +/- is a direct reflection of his PIM's and a sub-par PK in Barrie. Does anyone have stats to back up this thought?

PIMs and a poor PK have no impact on plus minus as you can't collect a minus from the box or while on the PK.

 

[truck]

+/- is only affected by even strength goals when the player is on the ice.

Mostly.

If you are on the ice when your team scores a short handed goal you get a plus.

If you are on the ice when your team gives up a short handed goal you get a minus.

Otherwise even strength.

 

[puck stoppa]

I'm very excited about Brendan, he brings something we've never had. I liked his dad's game and I'm looking forward to seeing his son play one day as a Jet.

Is he just a more skilled lipon? We have plenty of pest type of guys that may be hard to play against in petan, Kosmo, lipon and now Lemieux. One of them is bound to make an impact at NHL level no?

 

[Romang67]

Mostly.

If you are on the ice when your team scores a short handed goal you get a plus.

If you are on the ice when your team gives up a short handed goal you get a minus.

Otherwise even strength.

Sorry, I was between sets. Working on my pecs. Getting huge.

How are those spread sheets, truck?

 

[Tom ServoMST3K]

Mostly.

If you are on the ice when your team scores a short handed goal you get a plus.

If you are on the ice when your team gives up a short handed goal you get a minus.

Otherwise even strength.

That seems dumb.

 

[StronGeer]

Sorry, I was between sets. Working on my pecs. Getting huge.

How are those spread sheets, truck?

Did you rack the ten pounders before responding? If not, that's bad etiquette bro.

 

[Romang67]

Did you rack the ten pounders before responding? If not, that's bad etiquette bro.

What do you take me for? A savage? Of course I racked the ten pounders before responding!

That does raise an interesting question though. Is Lemieux going up against tough competition, or is he just being outscored 5v5 anyway?

 

[Board Bard]

I like the player. We need that element in our lineup. I have full confidence in PoMo to have him play on that edge and not cross it.

So, I think he'll be more of a scorer, than straight agitator. My hope is he'll be a 20-25 g guy, that is more of a Steve Ott/Brad Marchand type player. A gritty, pain the ass, who chips in his share of key goals. We'll see.

I don't know how you could have confidence in this when Mo has so far managed to do nothing about the problem with the current squad. Absolute zilch.

 

[garret9]

That seems dumb.

It is.

Empty net goals count too.

It's also neither a rate or a percentage, so can be highly manipulative as a +7/-1 is equal to a +30/-24 and +280/-274.

It is really one of the worst statistics out there.

 

[mazmin]

It is.

Empty net goals count too.

It's also neither a rate or a percentage, so can be highly manipulative as a +7/-1 is equal to a +30/-24 and +280/-276.

It is really one of the worst statistics out there.

Weird. I always though a minus 1 was given to the penalty taker (only) when the other team scores on PP. if this is not the case then I feel like Brendan's poor +/- on a good team this season is a bigger risk than previously thought.

Or maybe this stat is deceiving as you suggest and I should put less value in it...

 

[Tom ServoMST3K]

It is.

Empty net goals count too.

It's also neither a rate or a percentage, so can be highly manipulative as a +7/-1 is equal to a +30/-24 and +280/-276.

It is really one of the worst statistics out there.

Wait what?

I was vaguely aware of the PP/PK situation, but this may be the stupidest thing I have ever read :

 

[mazmin]

I don't know how you could have confidence in this when Mo has so far managed to do nothing about the problem with the current squad. Absolute zilch.

I love what Mo has done with the team but you're right, he needs to reduce penalties taken for this Jets team to take it to the next level. In relation to Lemieux, I hope he can reduce PIM's without sacrificing physicality long BEFORE he dresses as a Jet. That way we won't need to rely on Mo to police his on-ice discipline issues at all.

 

[garret9]

Weird. I always though a minus 1 was given to the penalty taker (only) when the other team scores on PP. if this is not the case then I feel like Brendan's poor +/- on a good team this season is a bigger risk than previously thought.

Or maybe this stat is deceiving as you suggest and I should put less value in it...

The empty net goals are a bad one since only certain players tend to get deployed in close situations and more often than not those amount to a minus.
Ladd (-8) and Byfuglien (-7) have been the most harmed of the Jets by this for example.

It really is a bad statistic. As a former NHL statistical analyst that did consulting work for a bunch of teams once said:

Plus/minus is a very reliable stat. In fact, you would do reasonably well signing the worst player in each season provided that he wasn't on an expansion team.

 

[garret9]

For those wanting, there is slightly better than +/- stat at chlstats.com. It has even strength goal differentials, and also does relative to team. Not great, but slightly better as it at least removes some of the issues.

Lemieux is a 40% goal percentage, which is 20 percentage points below what the team is with him on the bench.

That's really bad, but goals are rare so it could always be poor luck or tough line matching or combo.

The site is still in beta, but a pretty neat resource.

 

[truck]

That seems dumb.

Yup.

 

[Mud Turtle]

Does anyone know if there has been a study on these types of players and their future success in the NHL? By "these types" I mean players that rack up far more goals than assists in junior. IE Bossy, Hull and likely many players that have long be forgotten.

Just curious if there's any better success rate of these types of players rather than the ones who rack up assists but not a lot of goals.

 

[Hunter368]

Is he just a more skilled lipon? We have plenty of pest type of guys that may be hard to play against in petan, Kosmo, lipon and now Lemieux. One of them is bound to make an impact at NHL level no?

We'll see, time will tell. Jets have no one like that on the team right now, love to have one.

I don't see Petan fitting into that role ever.

 

[jetkarma*]

I think there is A LOT to be excited about when trying to determine Brendan's pro value.

PROS:
- skates well
- pro release and power on shot (especially snap shot)
- elite with tips ins, deflections, garbage goals in front of net
- super competitive and will do anything to win
- pedigree: we all know about Claude
- referral: Ducky likes him, and that means something

CONS:
- takes too many penaltiesu
- May be over confident (cocky)
- father, perhaps: is Claude too involved in his career?

It's obvious that the pros outweigh the cons. Secondly, you'll notice that the CONS I listed can all be corrected with simple maturation. Let's not forget that Brendan is a teenager. His discipline, attitude, and level of independence will only improve with time.

I can see him developing into a Dino Ciccarelli /Rick Tocchet as his high end and at worst a serviceable 3rd line winger to play with Lowry and contribute with physical play and clutch goals (just like papa!).

On the serious side those are a lot of really strong attributes.

On the less than serious side but still true , if he's like Dino does that mean he's going to punch out another teams mascot during the game ?

 

[jetkarma*]

I'm very excited about Brendan, he brings something we've never had. I liked his dad's game and I'm looking forward to seeing his son play one day as a Jet.

His dad was a great player. Not great like the other Lemieux or others but in his own way he was IMO. Not thinking he matches his dad but in 4 years if he gets close this will have been a fantastic trade.

 

[ps241]

His dad was a great player. Not great like the other Lemieux or others but in his own way he was IMO. Not thinking he matches his dad but in 4 years if he gets close this will have been a fantastic trade.

His dad was a really special talent, a difference maker and a winner.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

It is.

Empty net goals count too.

It's also neither a rate or a percentage, so can be highly manipulative as a +7/-1 is equal to a +30/-24 and +280/-276.

It is really one of the worst statistics out there.

I think I see why it is such a poor stat. It is arithmetically challenged. Probably invented by a goalie.

 

[Koonta]

Is he just a more skilled lipon? We have plenty of pest type of guys that may be hard to play against in petan, Kosmo, lipon and now Lemieux. One of them is bound to make an impact at NHL level no?

I'd say that even Buff is a pest. A pest that is built like a tank but a pest nonetheless.

 

[garret9]

I think I see why it is such a poor stat. It is arithmetically challenged. Probably invented by a goalie.

WHOOPSIES

Shhh goalies can be good at mathses

 

[Thai jet*]

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1880415

Some pretty bad comments from Colt fans about this guy.