So, I have read several times that you would need to retain 50% of Ryan's salary to actually be able to move him (without including him in an EK trade). That made me do some research. I listed ALL the veteran forwards AAV who are on their big UFA contracts making more this year than Ryan at 50% :
Matt Read $3,625,000
David Perron $3,750,000 (he got this contract before this season where he has a big jump in production)
Matt Beleskey $3,800,000
Darren Helm $3,850,000
Patrick Berglund $3,850,000
Mikkel Boedker $4,000,000
Evgeni Dadonov $4,000,000 (was out of the NHL for years and totally unproven)
Nick Bonino $4,100,000
Mathieu Perreault $4,125,000
Nikolai Kulemin $4,187,500
Tyler Bozak $4,187,500 (signed it in July 2013, had a 0.56 PPG in 238 games before that)
Craig Smith $4,250,000
Justine Abdelkader $4,250,000
Michael Frolik $4,300,000
Brandon Sutter $4,375,000
Alex Killorn $4,450,000
Troy Brouwer $4,500,000
Nazem Kadri $4,500,000 (one of the best contracts in the league, he signed a bit too fast in April 2016,before his jump in production)
Justin Williams $4,500,000 (36 y/o 2 years contract)
Artem Anisimov $4,550,000
Tyler Ennis $4,600,000
Clarke MacArthur $4,650,000
Jori Lehterä $4,700,000
Martin Hanzal $4,750,000
Carl Söderberg$4,750,000
Ryane Clowe $4,850,000
Marian Gaborik $4,875,000
Derick Brassard $5,000,000 (sweet deal but didn't have great seasons before he signed this)
Reilly Smith $5,000,000 (good deal because he signed too quickly, had decent stats but not as productive as this year)
Matt Moulson $5,000,000
Valtteri Filppula $5,000,000
Mikhail Grabovski $5,000,000
Tyler Johnson $5,000,000 (great deal, TB only got this because of 2 disappointing seasons)
Mike Hoffman $5,187,500 (sweet deal, best Dorion signing IMO)
Frans Nielsen $5,250,000
Joffrey Lupul $5,250,000 (would have gotten more if he wasn't so injury-prone)
David Clarkson $5,250,000
Nathan Horton $5,300,000 (another guy that would have gotten more if it wasn't for injuries)
Tomas Tatar $5,300,000
Dave Bolland $5,500,000
Nick Foligno $5,500,000
Andrew Ladd $5,500,000
Jason Pominville $5,600,000
Blake Wheeler $5,600,000 (this contract is a steal, should fire his agent. Even in July 2013 he should have gotten much more. Will get a lot more on his next deal)
T.J. Oshie $5,750,000 (would have been higher if it didn't take him to 39 y/o...)
Alexander Steen $5,750,000 (34 to 38 y/o deal)
Travis Zajac $5,750,000
Ryan Callahan $5,800,000
Brandon Dubinsky $5,850,000
Dustin Brown $5,875,000
Jordan Staal $6,000,000
Loui Eriksson $6,000,000
Kyle Okposo $6,000,000
Milan Lucic $6,000,000
Joe Pavelski $6,000,000 (great deal but it was signed in July 2013 before he had a great jump in production)
Tomas Plekanec $6,000,000
David Backes $6,000,000
Brad Marchand $6,125,000 (steal of a contract but he exploded in production after signing)
Alexander Radulov $6,250,000 (great deal, lower taxes played a part, he wanted over 7 M$ per in Montreal)
Patrick Marleau $6,250,000 (38 to 40 y/o contract)
Mikko Koivu $6,750,000 (was on a good contract for the most part)
Ryan Kesler $6,875,000 (not a bad deal but look at his production the 3 years prior)
Patrice Bergeron $6,875,000 (fantastic deal)
Henrik Sedin $7,000,000 (covered the declining part of their career)
Daniel Sedin $7,000,000 (covered the declining part of their career)
Paul Stastny $7,000,000
David Krejci $7,250,000
Jason Spezza $7,500,000
Ryan O'Reilly $7,500,000
Zach Parise $7,538,462 (despite it being a c.c. 13 years deal)
Evgeny Kuznetsov $7,800,000 (despite 3 years out of 8 being RFA years)
Rick Nash $7,800,000
Ryan Johansen $8,000,000 (2 RFA years)
Phil Kessel $8,000,000 (despite a big amount, it's a very good deal)
Joe Thornton $8,000,000 (38 y/o, 1 year contract)
Ryan Getzlaf $8,250,000 (same as Kessel)
Jakub Voracek $8,250,000 (up and down production)
Claude Giroux $8,250,000 (same as Voracek)
Steven Stamkos $8,500,000 (great deal, could have gotten more but stayed in the sun, on a great team, no taxes too)
Corey Perry $8,625,000 (his production has been slowing down too)
Evgeni Malkin $9,500,000 (one of the best deals in the NHL)
Jamie Benn $9,500,000 (good deal for now)
Anze Kopitar $10,000,000 (at that price, he can't produce like last season)
Patrick Kane $10,500,000
Jonathan Toews $10,500,000
Note : I didn't include cap circumventing deals like Carter, Zetterberg, Crosby, Ovechkin and Hossa. There is also many players who are overpaid on their RFA years like Brandon Saad and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins or Ryan Johansen
Ryan is better and MORE productive than many on this list (particularly before 6 M$ AAV). He is far from being the only one overpaid. Actually, what's funny is that if you look at dollars vs production, the majority of these guys could be considered "overpaid". That's the reality of the NHL market, you are supposed to benefit players when they are on their ELCs or RFA contracts and then they become expensive, all you can do is hope that they stay productive and can help you win.
Yes Ryan had an early peak when he was 21-23 years old but if you look at it, he has been a ~0.70 PPG forward (usually top-60 forwards numbers) for the 5 following years. He had a big drop in production last year but he kept getting injured, lost his mother from cancer, had his first new-born and was playing for a new coach who is not exactly favoring an offensive style. This season, his production went back up partially but he has still been dealing with many injuries.
Bobby Ryan still has high end skill and hockey IQ (as displayed on the big stage in last playoffs). If he could remain healthy a full season playing with good offensive players, this guy easily score 50+ pts.
All that being said, I have 4 questions :
1) Where do you think he would fit on that list in terms of salary range
2) How much do you think he would get on a 4 years deal on the UFA market
3) Would you trade him 1 for 1 for Andrew Ladd? (1.5 older than Ryan, 5 years left, 5.5 AAV but only 23 M$ owed in salary vs 4 years left for Ryan and 30 M$ owed in salary)
4) How dumb would it be to actually trade Mike Hoffman as he seems to have one of the best contracts among veteran forwards?