Confirmed with Link: Bobby Ryan being bought out

aragorn

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It's so interesting how different everyone seems to see things playing out especially in terms of lineups. These are the guys I think are on the team to start the season, but my guess is that at least 3 to 5 of them (if not more) could be moved out over the course of the season leading up to the trade deadline.

Other than saving money I'm not sure why they bought out Ryan, he is clearly a better option than everyone in the bottom six. This is most likely a make or break yr for a number of players who are starting to get older. Paul, Balcers, Chlapik, Hawryluk, Englund, Jaros & maybe Hogberg all have to have a good showing this yr to stay. I expect that Tierny, Anisimov, Reilly & maybe Nilsson to be moved out by the TD, if not sooner. Duclair will also have to have a good season if he wants to stay here. Nest season should be another yr of clearing out the old & bringing in the young to take over.

Tkachuk - White - Batherson
Duclair - Tierny - C. Brown
Balcers - Anisimov - Hawryluk
Paul - Chlapik - ??? (Sabourin)

Chabot - Zaitsev
Wolanin - Reilly
Englund - Jaros/Zub

Nilsson - Hogberg
 
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JD1

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It's so interesting how different everyone seems to see things playing out especially in terms of lineups. These are the guys I think are on the team to start the season, but my guess is that at least 3 to 5 of them (if not more) could be moved out over the course of the season leading up to the trade deadline.

Other than saving money I'm not sure why they bought out Ryan, he is clearly a better option than everyone in the bottom six. This is most likely a make or break yr for a number of players who are starting to get older. Paul, Balcers, Chlapik, Hawryluk, Englund, Jaros & maybe Hogberg all have to have a good showing this yr to stay. I expect that Tierny, Anisimov, Reilly & maybe Nilsson to be moved out by the TD, if not sooner. Duclair will also have to have a good season if he wants to stay here. Nest season should be another yr of clearing out the old & bringing in the young to take over.

Tkachuk - White - Batherson
Duclair - Tierny - C. Brown
Paul - Anisimov - Balcers
Hawryluk - Chlapik - ??? (Sabourin)

Chabot - Zaitsev
Wolanin - Reilly
Englund - Jaros/Zub

Nilsson - Hogberg

You're clearing out a lot of our older players. I'd like to see what Anisimov looks like without a mobility hindering injury. I can see them keeping one of him or Tierney. I honestly don't know what the rush is to clear Tierney out. With a reasonable contract in place i think he is a good piece that can do a lot of different things well
 

Xspyrit

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The notion that you need a certain amount of skill/jam to be on a certain line has been revolved. Skilled players can play on a 3rd line in today's NHL. And lines aren't really lines anymore anyway

Also, Bobby Ryan was faaaaar from being the only NHL vet to be overpaid, almost every team has one and most teams actually have several. So it's QUITE ridiculous to say that no team wouldn't take him at 50%, it's just that it didn't happen because it wouldn't have accomplished anything for Melnyk as he would need to pay 50% of Ryan's salary plus the player's salary Sens would have gotten back for basically the same production at best. Or it could have been 1 vs 1 for another overpaid player, but another thing that doesn't accomplish anything for Melnyk.

Also, I made a point earlier about JVR and Hayes contracts. Look at what they produced before getting their 7.0 + CH. There's countless examples, but CF is easy to search

This is crazy. The team would have eaten 50% to move him in a heartbeat. No other team is paying 3.75M each of the next 2 years for Ryan. He can’t play in the league anymore. Maybe he gets a league minimum deal somewhere and gets shuffled between the NHL and AHL but I bet he’ll just retire.

Players that can't play in the NHL are certainly not capable of putting 45 pts

Let's see how many Sens fowards can post a ~ 0.55PPG or more next season before saying a guy can't play in the NHL. I see Tkachuk, Brown and Duclair if these 2 continue to get maximum ice-time and/or opportunity to produce. The rest is pretty much in the air.

It's not that Ryan production can't be replaced but you either need to sign a UFA (comes at a price) or you need a young guy to take a big step forward. Sure with all that young talent, it's very likely a young guy scores over 40 pts but the problem is that you actually need several to do that with Pageau and Ryan now gone. Like I mentionned in the paragraph above, you basically only have 3 forwards that can bring some offense.

Or maybe they will acquire a bit of proven talent so let's see. All that being said, I don't see how an healthy Bobby Ryan can't play in the NHL. Sure, he's not fast but his vision, IQ and passing skills are well above average. How many Sens forward can do that at the moment?



It's a Melnyk financial business decision. Another spot open for a young player (very risky IMO as the team lacks veterans) and save dollars in the process. Ryan was obviously not part of the long term plans

He'll definitely get a show me deal for 1-2 years at $2 mil or so. Ryan is still a decent NHLer...he just wasn't worth his contract.

At this stage, saving around 3 million and change with a buyout is kinda silly. We'll have to pay that amount anyways for an ELC replacement over the next few years, so we really aren't saving anything.

Actually, I think they're saving 5.66 M$ in total minus the salary replacing him the 2 years, so maybe 3.5-4.0 in savings

That's a lot of money for Melnyk. 2 M$ was worth a 2nd round pick to him a few years ago.
 
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aragorn

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You're clearing out a lot of our older players. I'd like to see what Anisimov looks like without a mobility hindering injury. I can see them keeping one of him or Tierney. I honestly don't know what the rush is to clear Tierney out. With a reasonable contract in place i think he is a good piece that can do a lot of different things well
IMO both Anisimov & Tierny will be pushed out to make room on the roster for L. Brown & Norris. I could also see Formenton replacing Balcers in the lineup. If the NCAA doesn't play any hockey this yr & Pinto & JBD turn pro I expect them to take out two more roster spots (Hawryluk & Reilly) over the course of the season. Reilly is most likely gone for sure as Zub could take his spot now. The rush to move Tierny is to get something good for him while he still has value, we are afterall rebuilding.
 
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JD1

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IMO both Anisimov & Tierny will be pushed out to make room on the roster for L. Brown & Norris. I could also see Formenton replacing Balcers in the lineup. If the NCAA doesn't play any hockey this yr & Pinto & JBD turn pro I expect them to take out two more roster spots (Hawryluk & Reilly) over the course of the season. The rush to move Tierny is to get something good for him while he still has value, we are afterall rebuilding.
Tierney turned 26 this past summer. I think he'll have value for a while yet.

I do hope we are forced to make room for both Norris and Brown
 

Stylizer1

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The notion that you need a certain amount of skill/jam to be on a certain line has been revolved. Skilled players can play on a 3rd line in today's NHL. And lines aren't really lines anymore anyway

Also, Bobby Ryan was faaaaar from being the only NHL vet to be overpaid, almost every team has one and most teams actually have several. So it's QUITE ridiculous to say that no team wouldn't take him at 50%, it's just that it didn't happen because it wouldn't have accomplished anything for Melnyk as he would need to pay 50% of Ryan's salary plus the player's salary Sens would have gotten back for basically the same production at best. Or it could have been 1 vs 1 for another overpaid player, but another thing that doesn't accomplish anything for Melnyk.

Also, I made a point earlier about JVR and Hayes contracts. Look at what they produced before getting their 7.0 + CH. There's countless examples, but CF is easy to search



Players that can't play in the NHL are certainly not capable of putting 45 pts

Let's see how many Sens fowards can post a ~ 0.55PPG or more next season before saying a guy can't play in the NHL. I see Tkachuk, Brown and Duclair if these 2 continue to get maximum ice-time and/or opportunity to produce. The rest is pretty much in the air.

It's not that Ryan production can't be replaced but you either need to sign a UFA (comes at a price) or you need a young guy to take a big step forward. Sure with all that young talent, it's very likely a young guy scores over 40 pts but the problem is that you actually need several to do that with Pageau and Ryan now gone. Like I mentionned in the paragraph above, you basically only have 3 forwards that can bring some offense.

Or maybe they will acquire a bit of proven talent so let's see. All that being said, I don't see how an healthy Bobby Ryan can't play in the NHL. Sure, he's not fast but his vision, IQ and passing skills are well above average. How many Sens forward can do that at the moment?



It's a Melnyk financial business decision. Another spot open for a young player (very risky IMO as the team lacks veterans) and save dollars in the process. Ryan was obviously not part of the long term plans



Actually, I think they're saving 5.66 M$ in total minus the salary replacing him the 2 years, so maybe 3.5-4.0 in savings

That's a lot of money for Melnyk. 2 M$ was worth a 2nd round pick to him a few years ago.

Ryan was never a 7.5 million dollar player. He was in the right place at the right time.
 
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JungleBeat

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I’d much rather have a player that plays hard and is not a floater like Ryan was. Ryan’s one ice play was not a good example for the rookies coming in.
 
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Xspyrit

DJ Dorion
Jun 29, 2008
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I personally do not mind a reasonable back and forth debate, but I find it disingenuous for you to skew the statistics in your favour to try and prove a point.

Why are you using the last two years on Anaheim vs the first three years in Ottawa? Why not last 3 vs first 3 or last 2 vs first 2? Then give me the PPG, because you picking and choosing which years to compare is pretty deceptive.

Last 3 seasons in Anaheim = .75 PPG

First 3 seasons in Ottawa = 0.69 PPG

Vs

Last 2 seasons in Anaheim= 0.68 PPG

First 2 seasons in Ottawa= 0.69 PPG


Also, you are stuck on using PPG as your go to argument meanwhile completely ignoring all other stats like goals, assists, +/- etc. and I would like to know why?

Uh... I don't know how to explain this but the 2 years vs 3 years thing wasn't important at all. I was not making a linear comparison... If you want to take the last 2 vs the first 2, ok but it doesn't change anything. The point was to say that he DID match his last 2 seasons in Anaheim in his first 3 years in Ottawa, even though you STATED the opposite. If it was the first 2 years in Ottawa vs the last 4 years in Anaheim, it wouldn't have changed the point as well... except that he wouldn't have matched that production as long. But in reality he did for 3 years.

+/-, are you seriously asking why I don't talk about that stat? Ok maybe 15 years ago... but my hockey comprehension has kinda evolved since.

About PPG, I wouldn't need to use PPG if we were always looking at 82 GP but with time, I have stopped talking about just points because PPG simply gives you a much better indicator of a players point production than just total points.

I tried to make you see it by using Crosby as an exmaple twice but you still don't understand it. Crosby had 37 pts in 2011-12. You know who else had 37 pts? Colin Greening... But do you what the difference was? Crosby did it in 60 less games. PPG reflects that, total points don't.

I'm not sure what I am answering right now... so maybe it's ok we made the roundabout
 

GCK

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Oct 15, 2018
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The notion that you need a certain amount of skill/jam to be on a certain line has been revolved. Skilled players can play on a 3rd line in today's NHL. And lines aren't really lines anymore anyway

Also, Bobby Ryan was faaaaar from being the only NHL vet to be overpaid, almost every team has one and most teams actually have several. So it's QUITE ridiculous to say that no team wouldn't take him at 50%, it's just that it didn't happen because it wouldn't have accomplished anything for Melnyk as he would need to pay 50% of Ryan's salary plus the player's salary Sens would have gotten back for basically the same production at best. Or it could have been 1 vs 1 for another overpaid player, but another thing that doesn't accomplish anything for Melnyk.

Also, I made a point earlier about JVR and Hayes contracts. Look at what they produced before getting their 7.0 + CH. There's countless examples, but CF is easy to search



Players that can't play in the NHL are certainly not capable of putting 45 pts

Let's see how many Sens fowards can post a ~ 0.55PPG or more next season before saying a guy can't play in the NHL. I see Tkachuk, Brown and Duclair if these 2 continue to get maximum ice-time and/or opportunity to produce. The rest is pretty much in the air.

It's not that Ryan production can't be replaced but you either need to sign a UFA (comes at a price) or you need a young guy to take a big step forward. Sure with all that young talent, it's very likely a young guy scores over 40 pts but the problem is that you actually need several to do that with Pageau and Ryan now gone. Like I mentionned in the paragraph above, you basically only have 3 forwards that can bring some offense.

Or maybe they will acquire a bit of proven talent so let's see. All that being said, I don't see how an healthy Bobby Ryan can't play in the NHL. Sure, he's not fast but his vision, IQ and passing skills are well above average. How many Sens forward can do that at the moment?



It's a Melnyk financial business decision. Another spot open for a young player (very risky IMO as the team lacks veterans) and save dollars in the process. Ryan was obviously not part of the long term plans



Actually, I think they're saving 5.66 M$ in total minus the salary replacing him the 2 years, so maybe 3.5-4.0 in savings

That's a lot of money for Melnyk. 2 M$ was worth a 2nd round pick to him a few years ago.

You say it’s a financial decision but he shells out 3.8M to buy him out this year but it puts the team further from the cap floor. I’m sure they will add about 3-4M in acquiring players. You might not like the players they acquire but it’s still real dollars out.

As for total savings it’s 3.66M but the costs are spread out over 4 year instead of 2.
 
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TheDebater

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Uh... I don't know how to explain this but the 2 years vs 3 years thing wasn't important at all. I was not making a linear comparison... If you want to take the last 2 vs the first 2, ok but it doesn't change anything. The point was to say that he DID match his last 2 seasons in Anaheim in his first 3 years in Ottawa, even though you STATED the opposite. If it was the first 2 years in Ottawa vs the last 4 years in Anaheim, it wouldn't have changed the point as well... except that he wouldn't have matched that production as long. But in reality he did for 3 years.

+/-, are you seriously asking why I don't talk about that stat? Ok maybe 15 years ago... but my hockey comprehension has kinda evolved since.

About PPG, I wouldn't need to use PPG if we were always looking at 82 GP but with time, I have stopped talking about just points because PPG simply gives you a much better indicator of a players point production than just total points.

I tried to make you see it by using Crosby as an exmaple twice but you still don't understand it. Crosby had 37 pts in 2011-12. You know who else had 37 pts? Colin Greening... But do you what the difference was? Crosby did it in 60 less games. PPG reflects that, total points don't.

I'm not sure what I am answering right now... so maybe it's ok we made the roundabout

I agree that using PPG is a good indicator...when comparing two or more players. But when looking at a player's individual impact on a team, looking at PPG is not the first thing you should jump to, but rather how many goals, assists and points they scored (we are talking about an offensive forward here).

So my point in all of this was simply stating facts, not twisting or manipulating anythjng. I simply orginally stated that Bobby Ryan never scored as much goals in Ottawa as he did in Anaheim, nor did he out up single season totals matching his production in Anaheim.

Whether his point per game over 2 or 3 seasons is comparable is irrelevant. I would personally like to look at his PPG in his entire time in Anaheim vs his entire time in Ottawa.

The fact that you want to ignore actual important factors like goals scored and points tallied and only focus on PPG is what leads me to believe you are just defending Ryan for the sake of defending him.

Goals scored in Anaheim: 147 g in 348 gp - 0.42gpg

Goals scored in Ottawa: 107 g in 455 gp- 0.23gpg


Points in Anaheim: 289 p in 348 gp- 0.83 ppg

Points in Ottawa: 266 in 455 gp- 0.58 ppg

This is using your method, so now try and convince me that my original statement about Ryan never matching or exceeding his production in Anaheim is false or misleading?
 
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bert

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Ok Bert, so that's a pretty positive outlook coming from you.

I see a pretty big list of guys battling for spots and I see guys pushing for ice time all year. And hopefully some of these guys are ready for prime time cause they've had plenty of seasoning

Next year will be a schedule shit show and who knows how many games they actually play. What's your take on pace though?
I do think you need a strong culture with established veterans so im pretty worried about that. Especially because i think management lacks leadership too. The coaching staff seems to have lots of it but they need veterans to lean on. There needs to be balance.

Pace? I think its likely a condensed season. With no vaccine I dont see any other playable situation other than an all Canadian division. Ottawa will play a hard fast game, they are probably going to lose some games because of mistakes but that will be part of a young team that is growing.
 
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Xspyrit

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You say it’s a financial decision but he shells out 3.8M to buy him out this year but it puts the team further from the cap floor. I’m sure they will add about 3-4M in acquiring players. You might not like the players they acquire but it’s still real dollars out.

As for total savings it’s 3.66M but the costs are spread out over 4 year instead of 2.

Ryan was owed 15 M$ for the last 2 years of the contract

Cap Friendly says the BO cost will be $1,833,333 for each of the next 4 seasons... so that's 7.33 M$ in total...

The question I have, was the 2 M$ signing bonus already paid when the buy out has been processed?

If it was, then the savings are 5.33 M$

If it was not, then the savings are 7.33 M$

I have seen that 3.66 thrown a few times but no idea where it comes from, unless Cap Friendly is mistaken?

Like you said, the cost is spread over 4 years instead of 2... Even if the cost was also 15 M$, it's major for Melnyk spreading the cost over a longer period of time.

Either way, the player most likely to "replace" Ryan, Rudolf Balcers (could be any other youngster) won't cost a lot for the next 2 seasons so yes it's major savings for Melnyk.

After having witnessed this team do MOSTLY financial moves the last few years, I really don't find it hard to believe that it was yet another one.

Maybe if they go out and spend like crazy to really improve the team, ok then I will believe it was a "hockey move" but as of right now, it's another spot open for a cheaper younger player. I am not convinced yet that several rookies can outproduce an healthy Ryan (a broken down Ryan produces ~45 pts). Even if a few do, we're still lacking PROVEN top-9 forwards.

Tkachuk, Brown, Duclair, Tierney, White (but barely was last year with 0.38 PPG)

Anisimov was not long ago but hard to know what to expect from him... He produced 0.41 PPG last year.

So we basically only have 4 guys we can count on to produce numbers. You need 4-5 more guys. A lot of good prospects but we'll be asking them a lot.
 
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GCK

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Ryan was owed 15 M$ for the last 2 years of the contract

Cap Friendly says the BO cost will be $1,833,333 for each of the next 4 seasons... so that's 7.33 M$ in total...

The question I have, was the 2 M$ signing bonus already paid when the buy out has been processed?

If it was, then the savings are 5.33 M$

If it was not, then the savings are 7.33 M$

I have seen that 3.66 thrown a few times but no idea where it comes from, unless Cap Friendly is mistaken?

Like you said, the cost is spread over 4 years instead of 2... Even if the cost was also 15 M$, it's major for Melnyk spreading the cost over a longer period of time.

Either way, the player most likely to "replace" Ryan, Rudolf Balcers (could be any other youngster) won't cost a lot for the next 2 seasons so yes it's major savings for Melnyk.

After having witnessed this team do MOSTLY financial moves the last few years, I really don't find it hard to believe that it was yet another one.

Maybe if they go out and spend like crazy to really improve the team, ok then I will believe it was a "hockey move" but as of right now, it's another spot open for a cheaper younger player. I am not convinced yet that several rookies can outproduce an healthy Ryan (a broken down Ryan produces ~45 pts). Even if a few do, we're still lacking PROVEN top-9 forwards.

Tkachuk, Brown, Duclair, Tierney, White (but barely was last year with 0.38 PPG)

Anisimov was not long ago but hard to know what to expect from him... He produced 0.41 PPG last year.

So we basically only have 4 guys we can count on to produce numbers. You need 4-5 more guys. A lot of good prospects but we'll be asking them a lot.
Cap friendly shows 1.8 per year but the SBs of 2M this year and next are on top of that.
 
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Xspyrit

DJ Dorion
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I agree that using PPG is a good indicator...when comparing two or more players. But when looking at a player's individual impact on a team, looking at PPG is not the first thing you should jump to, but rather how many goals, assists and points they scored (we are talking about an offensive forward here).

So my point in all of this was simply stating facts, not twisting or manipulating anythjng. I simply orginally stated that Bobby Ryan never scored as much goals in Ottawa as he did in Anaheim, nor did he out up single season totals matching his production in Anaheim.

Whether his point per game over 2 or 3 seasons is comparable is irrelevant. I would personally like to look at his PPG in his entire time in Anaheim vs his entire time in Ottawa.

The fact that you want to ignore actual important factors like goals scored and points tallied and only focus on PPG is what leads me to believe you are just defending Ryan for the sake of defending him.

Goals scored in Anaheim: 147 g in 348 gp - 0.42ppg

Goals scored in Ottawa: 107 g in 455 gp- 0.23ppg


Points in Anaheim: 289 p in 348 gp- 0.83 ppg

Points in Ottawa: 266 in 455 gp- 0.58 ppg

This is using your method, so now try and convince me that my original statement about Ryan never matching or exceeding his production in Anaheim is false or misleading?

Ok but you know it's really not about being right or wrong here. It's more about the way we analyze things. Personally, my methodology has changed years ago. I used to look at it in a more simplistic way but I eventually realized that point totals just doesn't tell the whole story, so I began to use Pace per 82 games, but eventually realized that PPG was a lot more direct.

Evgeni Malkin is another player that you need to look at PPG to realize how great his impact has been. If you only look at point totals, it's not that impressive but he's another guy that has been over PPG pretty much all his career.

When an offensive forward is not in the line-up, it gives an opportunity to other players to produce more (the better the player, the harder he is to "replace"). So what is important is what this forward does when he is in the line-up. Now if the said player misses too many games and too often, then it's problematic but it's a completely different problem that has nothing to do with his capability of producing, in that case it's capability of staying healthy. In the hockey world, we call these guys "injury prone", like a Marian Havlat and Marian Gaborik for example.

In the particular case we were talking about, we don't necessarily need to look at PPG as Ryan "only" missed 17 games in his first 3 years in Ottawa but if you are not looking at PPG, how do you compare a full season + a lockout season vs 3 full seasons?

And why do you insist that I only use PPG when I DID note the point totals in my post?

"Last 2 years in Anaheim : 0.68 PPG (87 Pts in 128 GP)
First 3 years in Ottawa : 0.69 PPG (158 Pts in 229 GP)
"


If the PPG isn't noted, then you are comparing a different number of games and a different number of points. PPG makes you see quickly that it's the same level of production.

That's all PPG means lol

I hope this PPG thing is cleared once and for all. I mean it's only a tool to be able to compare apples with apples (shows you what the production (points) would be for the same number of games)

======================================

As a promoter of language accuracy (who recognizes that it is much easier said than done), I'm sorry but the whole argument didn't start about "goals scoring". This is what I have quoted :

"he joins your team and never matches any of that production"

I simply demonstrated that he did match the trend of his last 2 years in Anaheim, in his first 3 years in Ottawa. It really is THAT simple.

This whole misconception seems to come from the expectation that Ryan was going to go back to his peak years (21 to 23 y/o) level of production, and not just the level that he was trending on the last 2 years in Anaheim.

That's the thing, if Ryan didn't have these 2 lower production years in Anaheim, maybe he wouldn't have been traded in the first place and it most likely would have cost significantly more than Silfverberg, a late first (even more likely if Ryan is a 35-35 guy) and a broken down prospect.

======================================

"nor did he out up single season totals matching his production in Anaheim"

So what does this means?

When you take it literally, Ryan had seasons of 10 pts, 30 pts and 57 pts twice in Anaheim

So it's false because Ryan had seasons of 33 pts, 42 pts, 48 pts and 54 pts and 56 pts in Ottawa

And if you DON'T only take it literally, then it's disingenuous because he came 1 single point short of these 57 pts seasons. I could see someone attempting that kind of argument if the difference was 3-4 pts, but 1 pt? lol

======================================

Ok now, where did I IGNORE "actual important factors like goals scored and points tallied"

I'm sorry but I never did... Like I explained above, PPG demonstrates points tallied in relation to Games Played. Now if you want to look at goals, it's called GPG (not PPG like you wrote in your post). There's a lot of info, details, etc very hard to say everything in one single post (or even a few posts lol) but INITIALLY, you did NOT mention goals scored (like demonstrated above)

======================================

It's true that I'm defending Ryan but really against what you think. I'm not saying he should deserve praise, or have a statue erected outside of the rink, but I'm defending him against hyperbole and unfairness. Maybe he wasn't worth his contract anymore after the first 3 years (as I demonstrated before, he did in his first 3 years as it was a different contract for the first 2 years and was top-60 in NHL scoring in year 3) but he was also far from being the crappy useless player he was painted as in many comments (he had that amazing playoffs run and was somewhat productive in years 5 and 6). Do I need to find quotes? There's hundreds and hundreds of them, so I do not wish to do that.

======================================

It's a long debate but in reality it's simple.

In his fist 3 years in Ottawa, he DID match his last 2 years trend in Anaheim

In his whole time in Ottawa, he DID NOT match his peak years in Anaheim.

Yes, sometimes players peak very early in their career and are never able to get back to that level after. But don't forget another argument I mentioned that you didn't comment on. He played with Getzlaf, Perry in their prime (and Selanne). No offense to Turris and MacArthur but it's really not the same level of players...

So maybe it was a bit wishful think to expect that he matched his peak years in Ottawa, rather than his last 2 years trend.
 

Xspyrit

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Cap friendly shows 1.8 per year but the SBs of 2M this year and next are on top of that.

Ah ok, so 11.33 vs 15.0

3.66 - 1.6 (ELC of player "replacing" Ryan)

Melnyk saves 2.0

Personally, I would have waited to see how Ryan can produce this season. IF he puts 45 pts then it's much better than this whole process to save a bit of money. And there's no garantee a younger player can outproduce him even if he skates faster lol. Like I said, Sens will already need several young guys to produce numbers so it's not like we're the Tampa Bay ligthning and Ryan's production is super easy to replace (obviously not talking about last year)

UNLESS they plan on bringing some proven/expensive talent. Let's see what they do. If they acquire Alex Tuch for example, then yes I'm all for that move. If it is to bring a player that doesn't have long-term future in Ottawa, then it's useless IMO (and could have been done next offseason), no garantee the player acquired can produce as much or more than Ryan. Last year, we had a plethora of forwards that couldn't produce to Ryan's level of the 2 prior seasons, 0.54 PPG) : Anisimov, White, Namestnikov, Batherson, Paul, L. Brown, Boedker, Chlapik, Sabourin, Beaudin)
 
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JD1

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I do think you need a strong culture with established veterans so im pretty worried about that. Especially because i think management lacks leadership too. The coaching staff seems to have lots of it but they need veterans to lean on. There needs to be balance.

Pace? I think its likely a condensed season. With no vaccine I dont see any other playable situation other than an all Canadian division. Ottawa will play a hard fast game, they are probably going to lose some games because of mistakes but that will be part of a young team that is growing.

Ya, i agree on a Canadian division and a condensed schedule

I don't think it'll be an 72 game schedule. 50 maybe. By pace I meant points pace on an 82 game schedule.
 

bert

Registered User
Nov 11, 2002
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Ya, i agree on a Canadian division and a condensed schedule

I don't think it'll be an 72 game schedule. 50 maybe. By pace I meant points pace on an 82 game schedule.
I think 52 makes alot of sense, you play each team in the east 12 times and each west team 7 times.
 

ottawah

Registered User
Jan 7, 2011
3,488
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Tkachuk - White - Batherson
Duclair - Tierny - C. Brown
Balcers - Anisimov - Hawryluk
Paul - Chlapik - ??? (Sabourin)

Chabot - Zaitsev
Wolanin - Reilly
Englund - Jaros/Zub

Nilsson - Hogberg

The issue here is that to reach the floor, that second line would have to sign for ~15M. Do you want to commit that kind of money to them long term? One year from UFA for all three I believe, so would you risk one year?

I still believe the team has it in the budget to get one more top 6 forward or upgrade that D.
 

CapFriendly

Registered User
Mar 13, 2020
33
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The question I have, was the 2 M$ signing bonus already paid when the buy out has been processed?

If it was, then the savings are 5.33 M$

If it was not, then the savings are 7.33 M$
Signing Bonuses are paid regardless of a buyout, and in return result in an increased buyout cap hit, that is why signing bonus heavy contracts are considered buyout proof. The savings are $3.67M as shown:

1. If he was not bought out his earnings would have been $15M: $11M in salary and $4M in signing bonus

2. The buyout cost is $1,833,333 per year, total of $7,333,333 over the 4 years.
He gets paid a $2M signing bonus in 2020-21 and 2021-22, total of $4M
Post buyout earnings therefore are $11.3M

3. $15,000,000 - 11,333,333 = $3,666,667
 
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TheDebater

Peace be upon you
Mar 10, 2016
6,251
6,000
Ottawa
Ok but you know it's really not about being right or wrong here. It's more about the way we analyze things. Personally, my methodology has changed years ago. I used to look at it in a more simplistic way but I eventually realized that point totals just doesn't tell the whole story, so I began to use Pace per 82 games, but eventually realized that PPG was a lot more direct.

Evgeni Malkin is another player that you need to look at PPG to realize how great his impact has been. If you only look at point totals, it's not that impressive but he's another guy that has been over PPG pretty much all his career.

When an offensive forward is not in the line-up, it gives an opportunity to other players to produce more (the better the player, the harder he is to "replace"). So what is important is what this forward does when he is in the line-up. Now if the said player misses too many games and too often, then it's problematic but it's a completely different problem that has nothing to do with his capability of producing, in that case it's capability of staying healthy. In the hockey world, we call these guys "injury prone", like a Marian Havlat and Marian Gaborik for example.

In the particular case we were talking about, we don't necessarily need to look at PPG as Ryan "only" missed 17 games in his first 3 years in Ottawa but if you are not looking at PPG, how do you compare a full season + a lockout season vs 3 full seasons?

And why do you insist that I only use PPG when I DID note the point totals in my post?

"Last 2 years in Anaheim : 0.68 PPG (87 Pts in 128 GP)
First 3 years in Ottawa : 0.69 PPG (158 Pts in 229 GP)
"

If the PPG isn't noted, then you are comparing a different number of games and a different number of points. PPG makes you see quickly that it's the same level of production.

That's all PPG means lol

I hope this PPG thing is cleared once and for all. I mean it's only a tool to be able to compare apples with apples (shows you what the production (points) would be for the same number of games)

======================================

As a promoter of language accuracy (who recognizes that it is much easier said than done), I'm sorry but the whole argument didn't start about "goals scoring". This is what I have quoted :

"he joins your team and never matches any of that production"

I simply demonstrated that he did match the trend of his last 2 years in Anaheim, in his first 3 years in Ottawa. It really is THAT simple.

This whole misconception seems to come from the expectation that Ryan was going to go back to his peak years (21 to 23 y/o) level of production, and not just the level that he was trending on the last 2 years in Anaheim.

That's the thing, if Ryan didn't have these 2 lower production years in Anaheim, maybe he wouldn't have been traded in the first place and it most likely would have cost significantly more than Silfverberg, a late first (even more likely if Ryan is a 35-35 guy) and a broken down prospect.

======================================

"nor did he out up single season totals matching his production in Anaheim"

So what does this means?

When you take it literally, Ryan had seasons of 10 pts, 30 pts and 57 pts twice in Anaheim

So it's false because Ryan had seasons of 33 pts, 42 pts, 48 pts and 54 pts and 56 pts in Ottawa

And if you DON'T only take it literally, then it's disingenuous because he came 1 single point short of these 57 pts seasons. I could see someone attempting that kind of argument if the difference was 3-4 pts, but 1 pt? lol

======================================

Ok now, where did I IGNORE "actual important factors like goals scored and points tallied"

I'm sorry but I never did... Like I explained above, PPG demonstrates points tallied in relation to Games Played. Now if you want to look at goals, it's called GPG (not PPG like you wrote in your post). There's a lot of info, details, etc very hard to say everything in one single post (or even a few posts lol) but INITIALLY, you did NOT mention goals scored (like demonstrated above)

======================================

It's true that I'm defending Ryan but really against what you think. I'm not saying he should deserve praise, or have a statue erected outside of the rink, but I'm defending him against hyperbole and unfairness. Maybe he wasn't worth his contract anymore after the first 3 years (as I demonstrated before, he did in his first 3 years as it was a different contract for the first 2 years and was top-60 in NHL scoring in year 3) but he was also far from being the crappy useless player he was painted as in many comments (he had that amazing playoffs run and was somewhat productive in years 5 and 6). Do I need to find quotes? There's hundreds and hundreds of them, so I do not wish to do that.

======================================

It's a long debate but in reality it's simple.

In his fist 3 years in Ottawa, he DID match his last 2 years trend in Anaheim

In his whole time in Ottawa, he DID NOT match his peak years in Anaheim.

Yes, sometimes players peak very early in their career and are never able to get back to that level after. But don't forget another argument I mentioned that you didn't comment on. He played with Getzlaf, Perry in their prime (and Selanne). No offense to Turris and MacArthur but it's really not the same level of players...

So maybe it was a bit wishful think to expect that he matched his peak years in Ottawa, rather than his last 2 years trend.

I am quoting simply to acknowledge that I took the time to read your entire reply.

Whether I disagree or not, I can always appreciate someone taking the time to explain their position in detail, and at this point we have both said our piece and I do not feel I have anythjng productive to add to this anymore. Good discussion though.
 
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Xspyrit

DJ Dorion
Jun 29, 2008
30,857
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Montreal, Canada
I am quoting simply to acknowledge that I took the time to read your entire reply.

Whether I disagree or not, I can always appreciate someone taking the time to explain their position in detail, and at this point we have both said our piece and I do not feel I have anythjng productive to add to this anymore. Good discussion though.

Yeah we went through the conversation and both made good points

I think it comes down to expectations. You and all people that expected Ryan to regain his peak were disappointed right away. He was still just 26 y/o so he should have been able to (but like I said Getzlaf/Perry vs Turris/MacArthur)

I was also hoping to see him bounce back to his best days but wasn't overly disappointed when I saw him continue on his last 2 years trend. Knowing that he played with 2 significantly lesser players makes it even more understandable. Considering he "only" made 5.1 M$ per the first 2 years, I was very happy with his first 3 years in Ottawa (always trying to keep realistic expectations)

I knew (like most) that we had to overpay to keep him in Ottawa (which was probably the last time Melnyk was ready to do that) so I would have been fine with 55-60 pts seasons going forward. Unfortunately he had a rough 2016-17 season when Boucher came in and battled a lot of injuries which affected his play. He redeemed himself in the playoffs so there was hope he was going to be back to 0.7 PPG production level (which is 57 pts IF 82 games)

Unfortunately, in the end, injuries, Boucher, personal problems and the team's downfall are all factors that explain why he could only go back to ~0.55 PPG (instead of 0.7)

Knowing all these facts is why I really think the drama around Ryan has been quite exaggerated (which is a behavior I have witnessed ad nauseam on HF for 12+ years). Heck, I don't remember who the player was, but there was some outrage at a contract under 1 M$. I think it was Winchester. lol
 
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Stylizer1

SENSimillanaire
Jun 12, 2009
19,303
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Ottabot City
Yeah we went through the conversation and both made good points

I think it comes down to expectations. You and all people that expected Ryan to regain his peak were disappointed right away. He was still just 26 y/o so he should have been able to (but like I said Getzlaf/Perry vs Turris/MacArthur)

I was also hoping to see him bounce back to his best days but wasn't overly disappointed when I saw him continue on his last 2 years trend. Knowing that he played with 2 significantly lesser players makes it even more understandable. Considering he "only" made 5.1 M$ per the first 2 years, I was very happy with his first 3 years in Ottawa (always trying to keep realistic expectations)

I knew (like most) that we had to overpay to keep him in Ottawa (which was probably the last time Melnyk was ready to do that) so I would have been fine with 55-60 pts seasons going forward. Unfortunately he had a rough 2016-17 season when Boucher came in and battled a lot of injuries which affected his play. He redeemed himself in the playoffs so there was hope he was going to be bak to 0.7 PPG production level.

Unfortunately, in the end, injuries, Boucher, personal problems and the team's downfall are all factors that explains why he could only go back to 0.55 PPG (instead of 0.7)

Knowing all these facts is why I really think the drama around Ryan has been quite exaggerated (which is a behavior I have witnessed ad nauseam on HF for 12+ years). Heck, don't remember who the player was, but there was some outrage at a 2 years under 1 M$ contract. I think it was Winchester. lol
His 2nd half slumps had nothing to do with his line mates. He was out of shape.
 

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