Blue Jays Discussion: Blue Jays baseball: now with 100% more wins!

[phillipmike]

Small sample size but in the last 7 days the Jays have the 6th best wRC+ and the 7th best ERA- in the AL. Small sample size indeed but potentially turning the corner.

Our top 4 hitters in that span have been Pillar, Zeke, Smoak and Goins - wait until Bautista, Travis, Martin, Morales and Pearce start heating up. Also getting starts from 2 AAA pitchers. Gone 3-3 in that span scoring 29 and giving up 26. Again nothing to be impressed about but trending in the right direction.

Its going to be an uphill battle and a tough IF but if the Jays can get close to .500 or at least stay 5 or less games behind the wildcard spot then they should be fine.

We were pretty much healthy all 2015 and 2016 and now injuries have hit us in bunches this season; lost our 1st and 3rd best pitchers in terms of WAR and 1st and 4th best positions players all at the same time. Keep in mind that our starting infield over the last few days have been some variation of Smoak, Travis, Goins, Barney and Coghlan while getting starts by Mat Latos and Casey Lawerence.

Bautista, Martin, Pearce and Travis have been hitting better (not good) but better than their starts. With them turning a corner coupled with JD and Tulo getting healthy the Jays can still get back in it.

 

[deletethis]

I've been watching the Blue Jays since 1977 and they haven't had many bad years, (1977-1982) were somewhat bad, but never "dark".

I've been following the team since the beginning. The 1981 season was a bit depressing with the strike and the team looking like it was regressing (that didn't last, they were contending in a few seasons). Things got a bit depressing in the mid to late 1990's when the ownership didn't want to own the team, the Canadian dollar was tanking and the Skydome was insolvent. There have been years before like this where the team is pretty much out of the race out of the gate. But at least for now there's no existential threat to the franchise like 15-20 years ago.

 

[one77]

Alford, Vlad Jr., Bichette, and other prospects looking real good so far. That's the only bright spot so far this season

 

[BertCorbeau]

So did we get any sort of explanation about the ump's brutal call yesterday on the Calhoun at bat?

 

[phillipmike]

So did we get any sort of explanation about the ump's brutal call yesterday on the Calhoun at bat?

Rule 5.07(a)(2) Comment (Rule 8.01(b) Comment) With no runners on base, the pitcher is not required to come to a complete stop when using the Set Position. If, however, in the umpire’s judgment, a pitcher delivers the ball in a deliberate effort to catch the batter off guard, this delivery shall be deemed a quick pitch, for which the penalty is a ball. See Rule 6.02(a)(5) Comment (Rule 8.05(e) Comment).

“What we basically go by is if the batter is reasonably ready,†crew chief Alfonso Marquez explained to a pool reporter. “That’s all we judge it on. With no runners on base, he doesn’t have to come set. In the umpire’s judgment, the batter was not reasonably ready, therefore he considered it a quick pitch.â€

Still a pretty stupid explanation. Both feet were in the box.

 

[doorman]

Still a pretty stupid explanation. Both feet were in the box.

Both feet and the bat held in a ready position, also like some one said, if the ump called time, it shouldn't have been a quick pitch, it can't be both.

 

[hoglund]

Lol what? Dark history? We had 2 Championships in our first 17 years or something and for a long time after that were 3rd in the best division in baseball. Maybe surprising that an expansion team was better but after that how can you call it a dark history?

He probably didn't start watching the blue jays until the mid 90's , where there were a couple of bad seasons. Almost all of the 80's the Jays were great 83-93 they were true contenders, in 87 they had the 2nd best record in MLB and didn't make the playoffs because the division was so good and there was no wildcard. They Jays history has very few bad years, the good years heavily outweigh the bad.

 

[Discoverer]

Alford, Vlad Jr., Bichette, and other prospects looking real good so far. That's the only bright spot so far this season

The prospect success has been great early on. Those three have been among the most impressive April performances in all of baseball (Vlad Jr. in particular), but they've also had some really good starts from other guys like Zeuch and Pentecost, and even some of the darkhouse, longshot types like Jansen, Kelly, and Jonathan Davis (who's basically replicating his impressive 2016 at AA).

Hell, even Reese McGuire has a pair of homeruns and a 91 wRC+ (which is normal-ish for him) despite a .172 BABIP.

Early season prospect stats are fun.

 

[theaub]

Both feet and the bat held in a ready position, also like some one said, if the ump called time, it shouldn't have been a quick pitch, it can't be both.

The ump called time to indicate the ball was dead due to it being a quick pitch

Awful call though

 

[Discoverer]

The ump called time to indicate the ball was dead due to it being a quick pitch

Awful call though

Exactly.

And he somehow managed to one-up himself by making an even worse call when he awarded time to Maldonado.

 

[Bad News Benning]

The prospect success has been great early on. Those three have been among the most impressive April performances in all of baseball (Vlad Jr. in particular), but they've also had some really good starts from other guys like Zeuch and Pentecost, and even some of the darkhouse, longshot types like Jansen, Kelly, and Jonathan Davis (who's basically replicating his impressive 2016 at AA).

Hell, even Reese McGuire has a pair of homeruns and a 91 wRC+ (which is normal-ish for him) despite a .172 BABIP.

Early season prospect stats are fun.

I'm most impressed by the plate discipline. Thats the foundation of a good mlb hitter if you can master the strike zone and a lot of these kids are looking promising in that department. The power will develop as they get older and stronger.

I think there will be a lot of prospects deserving of 2nd half promotions which I wasn't expecting at the start of the year. I fully expected Alford would need a few months to adjust to AA pitching but he might be a September call up at this rate. I also expected Bo and Vlad to be in Lansing for most (if not all) of the season. They might be in Dunedin come June/July.

 

[Discoverer]

I'm most impressed by the plate discipline. Thats the foundation of a good mlb hitter if you can master the strike zone and a lot of these kids are looking promising in that department. The power will develop as they get older and stronger.

I think there will be a lot of prospects deserving of 2nd half promotions which I wasn't expecting at the start of the year. I fully expected Alford would need a few months to adjust to AA pitching but he might be a September call up at this rate. I also expected Bo and Vlad to be in Lansing for most (if not all) of the season. They might be in Dunedin come June/July.

To me, plate discipline (especially from young or relatively inexperienced guys like Bichette, Vlad, and Alford) is a huge asset as long as it comes with other strengths. I don't like it as a player's main attribute because it tends to wane when they start facing better pitching. My favourite things about those three is that they all seem like really good hitters who ALSO have great plate discipline.

For me, Guerrero may be having the most impressive April of any prospect in baseball (given his age, level, overall success, and BB/K/power profile), but Alford's plummeting K-rate is probably still my favourite development.

 

[Bad News Benning]

To me, plate discipline (especially from young or relatively inexperienced guys like Bichette, Vlad, and Alford) is a huge asset as long as it comes with other strengths. I don't like it as a player's main attribute because it tends to wane when they start facing better pitching. My favourite things about those three is that they all seem like really good hitters who ALSO have great plate discipline.

For me, Guerrero may be having the most impressive April of any prospect in baseball (given his age, level, overall success, and BB/K/power profile), but Alford's plummeting K-rate is probably still my favourite development.

Well being a good hitter is pretty much a requirement these days unless you play catcher or cf. I dont think we would be having this conversation if they couldnt swing it. When you look at what seperates a great hitter from an average hitter it usually comes down to plate discipline.

You can usually tell at lower levels if a player is going to have issues long term taking walks or limiting strikeouts. Woodman for example will probably wash out because he's easily exploited at lower levels. Urena on the other hand will have a difficult time sticking as a full time SS because he walks as much as Kevin pillar.

 

[Eyedea]

Well being a good hitter is pretty much a requirement these days unless you play catcher or cf. I dont think we would be having this conversation if they couldnt swing it. When you look at what seperates a great hitter from an average hitter it usually comes down to plate discipline.

You can usually tell at lower levels if a player is going to have issues long term taking walks or limiting strikeouts. Woodman for example will probably wash out because he's easily exploited at lower levels. Urena on the other hand will have a difficult time sticking as a full time SS because he walks as much as Kevin pillar.

He'll have a difficult time sticking at the least offensive position because he can't take a walk? SS also aren't really known for their discipline. Contact, sure, but only 10 of the 39 qualified from 2014-2017 even pass a 0.50 BB/K rate.

 

[Bad News Benning]

He'll have a difficult time sticking at the least offensive position because he can't take a walk?

Shortstop is quickly becoming a more offensively demanding position. Not the black hole of suck it was once considered.

Let's put it this way...if urena doesn't hit for a high average I can't see him being a good regular. Hitting .250 is really not an option for him if he wants to be an every day SS given his obp limitations and gap power.

 

[Discoverer]

Shortstop is quickly becoming a more offensively demanding position. Not the black hole of suck it was once considered.

That's not the way it works at all. Just because there are a bunch of good offensive SS right now doesn't mean the expectations/demands are higher.

The only expectations of any defensive position are defensive ones. The higher the defensive expectations, the lower the offensive expectations. Shortstop remains a very difficult defensive position to play, so the offensive bar is low, and a handful of superstars playing the position in any given year won't change that.

 

[Eyedea]

Shortstop is quickly becoming a more offensively demanding position. Not the black hole of suck it was once considered.

Let's put it this way...if urena doesn't hit for a high average I can't see him being a good regular. Hitting .250 is really not an option for him if he wants to be an every day SS given his obp limitations and gap power.

Discoverer said what I was going to say already, but just to reiterate, it's like me suggesting that CF is becoming a more offensively demanding position because Trout plays there. The triumvirate at SS doesn't make organizations think they have to put an elite hitter at that same position in order to win ball games. Every team is built differently, and those that have elite hitting shortstops that also provide elite defence are at an advantage because those types of players are and forever will be scarce.

Small sample size but so far this year the position is, unsurprisingly, ranked last in wRC+.

 

[Bad News Benning]

That's not the way it works at all. Just because there are a bunch of good offensive SS right now doesn't mean the expectations/demands are higher.

The only expectations of any defensive position are defensive ones. The higher the defensive expectations, the lower the offensive expectations. Shortstop remains a very difficult defensive position to play, so the offensive bar is low, and a handful of superstars playing the position in any given year won't change that.

Being strong offensively at the demanding positions is a significant advantage for teams. If you aren't getting good production from shortstop, center, or catcher it really limits flexibility with the rest of your roster. Expectations should be high otherwise you're significantly behind the 8 ball compared to many of your competitors. If you just accept average to below average production from certain positions based off certain bars your team will always be average or below average.

 

[Discoverer]

Being strong offensively at the demanding positions is a significant advantage for teams. If you aren't getting good production from shortstop, center, or catcher it really limits flexibility with the rest of your roster. Expectations should be high otherwise you're significantly behind the 8 ball compared to many of your competitors. If you just accept average to below average production from certain positions based off certain bars your team will always be average or below average.

Literally no one is "accepting" below average production. We're just talking about the kind of production Urena would have to provide to be a viable major league starter.

The players you're describing (strong offensive players who provide good defense at key defensive positions) are superstars, and there's a vast, vast range of possible outcomes between "not good enough" and "elite young star". Obviously you want those players on your team and that's what you should aim for, but it's extremely difficult to do because those players are so rare.

The reason shortstops are hitting well lately isn't because expectations are changing... it's because having a handful of young guys like Correa, Lindor, and Seager take the league by storm like this is rare.

Jose Iglesias and Freddy Galvis both had wRC+ in the 70s last year, and both were worth 2+ fWAR.

 

[Bad News Benning]

Literally no one is "accepting" below average production. We're just talking about the kind of production Urena would have to provide to be a viable major league starter.

The players you're describing (strong offensive players who provide good defense at key defensive positions) are superstars, and there's a vast, vast range of possible outcomes between "not good enough" and "elite young star". Obviously you want those players on your team and that's what you should aim for, but it's extremely difficult to do because those players are so rare.

The reason shortstops are hitting well lately isn't because expectations are changing... it's because having a handful of young guys like Correa, Lindor, and Seager take the league by storm like this is rare.

Jose Iglesias and Freddy Galvis both had wRC+ in the 70s last year, and both were worth 2+ fWAR.

Urena isn't known as a wizard defensively. He's not horrible but I wouldn't say that he will ever be in contention for a gold glove either.
At best I would say that urena has the potential to become an average defender.

So the question will be what kind of offensive will he provide. Are we looking at A.Escobar offensive profile with a bit more pop? Or does his bat evolve enough to the point where the lack of walks is of less concern. I feel like he needs to hit North of .280 to feel comfortable with him as an everyday shortstop.

I think if we trade donaldson a top SS prospect would be as good area to target. It would be good to have a another option if urena doesn't develop into a good everyday shortstop.

 

[Eyedea]

Urena isn't known as a wizard defensively. He's not horrible but I wouldn't say that he will ever be in contention for a gold glove either.
At best I would say that urena has the potential to become an average defender.

So the question will be what kind of offensive will he provide. Are we looking at A.Escobar offensive profile with a bit more pop? Or does his bat evolve enough to the point where the lack of walks is of less concern. I feel like he needs to hit North of .280 to feel comfortable with him as an everyday shortstop.

I think if we trade donaldson a top SS prospect would be as good area to target. It would be good to have a another option if urena doesn't develop into a good everyday shortstop.

I know this is just becoming circular, but therein lies the point. It's not that he wouldn't stick at SS because he can't take a walk, it's because his biggest negative (lacking focus) is detriment to the development of his defence at the position. It's like comparing Starlin Castro to JJ Hardy.

 

[Canada4Gold]

So did we get any sort of explanation about the ump's brutal call yesterday on the Calhoun at bat?

Still a pretty stupid explanation. Both feet were in the box.

Both feet and the bat held in a ready position, also like some one said, if the ump called time, it shouldn't have been a quick pitch, it can't be both.

The ump called time to indicate the ball was dead due to it being a quick pitch

Awful call though

Exactly.

And he somehow managed to one-up himself by making an even worse call when he awarded time to Maldonado.

I didn't see the play live, so I don't have the memory of watching it live and thinking what the **** just happened that umpire is a total moron. Calling a ball on what should have either been no pitch or a strike.

But watching a replay of it a couple hours later after hearing about it, I actually thought, pending what umpires define as a quick pitch it could have been the correct call. I would have deemed the hitter ready, he was in the box, and although he was still in the process of his stupid bat swing warmup routine, it was just finishing. But I can understand why the umpire may make that call. I'm not sure the hitter was looking at Stroman when Stroman started the pitch.

Now that's the hitters own fault, he was in the box long enough to complete his routine and look at Stroman, the pitcher shouldn't have to give the hitter 10 seconds after him stepping into the box to pitch, and that's a call that almost never happens, I've never seen it before so given that I think it would have to be very bad for it to be called which this wasn't. I think it was the wrong call but I don't think it was in the category of wow that's a brutal call that just is completely wrong, I'd have it in the, that's a borderline call of a thing that never gets called and shouldn't have been called in this case either. But can understand why it was.

The one later in the game, time shouldn't have been given, that was way too late.

Delabar got suspended 80 games for testing positive? Just seeing this on my twitter feed.

 

[Dr.Funk]

Exactly.

And he somehow managed to one-up himself by making an even worse call when he awarded time to Maldonado.

On top of not knowing that it is his job to call fair/foul on balls before the bags.


Just a **** show from that guy yesterday. Send him back to AAA.

 

[Canada4Gold]

As for Urena, SSS but he's walked 8 times in 67 plate apperances this year for a 11.9% walk rate. Up from his 3.1% walk rate in AA last year and his 6.0% walk rate in Dunedin last year. Unfortunately the K rate has almost doubled along with it, maybe he's consciously trying to be more selective at the plate.

 

[habamillions]

I didn't see the play live, so I don't have the memory of watching it live and thinking what the **** just happened that umpire is a total moron. Calling a ball on what should have either been no pitch or a strike.

But watching a replay of it a couple hours later after hearing about it, I actually thought, pending what umpires define as a quick pitch it could have been the correct call. I would have deemed the hitter ready, he was in the box, and although he was still in the process of his stupid bat swing warmup routine, it was just finishing. But I can understand why the umpire may make that call. I'm not sure the hitter was looking at Stroman when Stroman started the pitch.

Now that's the hitters own fault, he was in the box long enough to complete his routine and look at Stroman, the pitcher shouldn't have to give the hitter 10 seconds after him stepping into the box to pitch, and that's a call that almost never happens, I've never seen it before so given that I think it would have to be very bad for it to be called which this wasn't. I think it was the wrong call but I don't think it was in the category of wow that's a brutal call that just is completely wrong, I'd have it in the, that's a borderline call of a thing that never gets called and shouldn't have been called in this case either. But can understand why it was.

The one later in the game, time shouldn't have been given, that was way too late.

Delabar got suspended 80 games for testing positive? Just seeing this on my twitter feed.

Yeah something called osterline or something