Speculation: Babcock and Nylander - Back for another year, here'$ why

[Menzinger]

Pretty much this.

The progression of Sandin and Liljegren in the AHL really helps alleviate the immediate need to acquire a long-term piece on the blue line (which is what you would be trading Nylander for) .. I would say the bigger focus for Dubas is moving Brown, Marleau, and/or Zaitsev and make some cap relief going forward. Also getting Marner signed.

Trading Nylander (and even Kadri for that matter) are viable options to help the team in the traditional "hockey trade" sense and they absolutely should be explored, but retaining either isn't a bad idea either since their values are both relatively low right now.

That being said Bracco is making a serious case that he could be a ready next season. Therefore the Leafs could either move Nylander, or move Kadri (and put Nylander down the middle in Kadri's place).

I think it's an easy conclusion that the Leafs have a lot of leverage here to be patient on the trade market and let other teams ante up.

Good points.

Also makes it easier to move Kapanen if he proves to be difficult during contract negotiations

 

[Menzinger]

I don't get the poor optics moving Nylander. It's an easy cover, you say our intent was never to move him, but when a good deal comes along to improve your team you can't pass it up. Not a tough spin at all IMO. Especially when there were rumblings about this being a deal structured to move him this summer anyways.

If the right deal came up I doubt he'd hesitate to move Nylander. The flip side is I dont think Dubas will look to move a core piece thisnoffseason unless something falls into his lap

 

[A1LeafNation]

I don't get the poor optics moving Nylander. It's an easy cover, you say our intent was never to move him, but when a good deal comes along to improve your team you can't pass it up. Not a tough spin at all IMO. Especially when there were rumblings about this being a deal structured to move him this summer anyways.

Why move Nylander, he looks like he could be. 2nd line center if Kadri is moved in a couple years.

Matthews Tavares Marner
Korshkov Nylander Kapanen

 

[lifelonghockeyfan]

I agree but does Dubas have the stones to do it ? He would then have to answer to the media as well for his promise not to move Nylander.

It isn't so much "the stones" it's managing the cap. I don't think Dubas made such as promise (and why would anyone believe what a coach, player or executive says in public.) Believe the quote was "As long as I'm here, I don't INTEND to trade Nylander." It was the answer to a cap question. The stellar play of Marner, Kapanen, Johnsson (and their new contracts) and the acquisition of Muzzin might have to changed Dubas's intent and reality.

 

[IBeL34f]

If Nylander is a Leaf next season, it's not because of optics, or promises, or money - It's because Dubas wants him here.

 

[Its not your fault]

I can’t wait for Nylander to put up 80 points next season and shut the haters up.

I would say 70 there is only so many points to go around and you have 2 players that can hit close to 100 points 2 more that might flirt with 70-80 that if someone's on your 3rd line getting 50 60. It's not totally their fault as we are an offensive force. Other GM's will see our 2nd and 3rd line players as plus 10 points on the GM's respective teams. If they where to bump up to a 1st or 2nd line. Aka Kadri minutes his playoff antics Nylander Johnassson and Kasper. All will be seen as an 10 point increase and untapped ceiling potential.

 

[Eye Test]

Why move Nylander, he looks like he could be. 2nd line center if Kadri is moved in a couple years.

Matthews Tavares Marner
Korshkov Nylander Kapanen

No

 

[Sypher04]

Even if the team had appetite to move Nylander (and I don’t believe for a moment they do, because they are smarter than the average fan or media member) you would not sell him at the low he’s at right now.

Nylander will be and should be back.

 

[Sypher04]

I’ve made a similar case before.

As of July 1st, the leafs will have paid Nylander $20 million for 7 goals and 27 points. There is no way mlse can be happy about that.

Also, the trade off for front loading a contract in such a way is supposed to be a lower cap hit. But Nylander’s cap hit is still far above comparables. At some point, mlse is going to get pissed off at all this needlessly wasted money.

Dubas is already in full damage control over the Nylander dramatic overpayment, taking 100% of the blame for Nylanders abysmal season. This is because Dubas’ fate is now in the hands of Matthews and Nylander.

If Matthews is a mere ppg player next year (paid like a generational elite superstar) and if Nylander is a disgrace again next year... Dubas’s job will be on the line.

Matthews was on pace for 88 points this year despite having a mess of wingers all season long, being completely misused on the powerplay and dealing with at least 2 injuries. That deal will be fine.

 

[Menzinger]

I would say 70 there is only so many points to go around and you have 2 players that can hit close to 100 points 2 more that might flirt with 70-80 that if someone's on your 3rd line getting 50 60. It's not totally their fault as we are an offensive force. Other GM's will see our 2nd and 3rd line players as plus 10 points on the GM's respective teams. If they where to bump up to a 1st or 2nd line. Aka Kadri minutes his playoff antics Nylander Johnassson and Kasper. All will be seen as an 10 point increase and untapped ceiling potential.

If hes on Matthew's wing (where he should be) as the playmaker on the line ppg could be within reach. Especially if Babs actually starts to play his main guys more

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Matthews was on pace for 88 points this year despite having a mess of wingers all season long, being completely misused on the powerplay and dealing with at least 2 injuries. That deal will be fine.

He's under a ppg during his elc.

Look at any other player that signed for around 15% of the cap coming off their elc. They were FAR above a ppg over their elc, with at least one season above 100 points. Like... a real 100 points. Not a 100 point "pace".

It's a horrible contract.

 

[IBeL34f]

Matthews was on pace for 88 points this year despite having a mess of wingers all season long, being completely misused on the powerplay and dealing with at least 2 injuries. That deal will be fine.

Literally the best-producing goal-scorer (G/60) in the League over his career so far.

I agree with the masses that I would've liked to see more term for the AAV, but he's absolutely worth the money in my books, so I'm good with what he's got.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

If Nylander is a Leaf next season, it's not because of optics, or promises, or money - It's because Dubas wants him here.

Not necessarily. There is far more in play.
$20 million is a lot of money. To pay that to Nylander for a mere 7 goals/27 points will piss off Dubas' bosses.

 

[RoadWarrior]

He's under a ppg during his elc.

Look at any other player that signed for around 15% of the cap coming off their elc. They were FAR above a ppg over their elc, with at least one season above 100 points. Like... a real 100 points. Not a 100 point "pace".

It's a horrible contract.

Horrible because it covers only one year of UFA. If it were a 6 or 7 year deal it would be ok.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Horrible because it covers only one year of UFA. If it were a 6 or 7 year deal it would be ok.

I would be okay with the Matthews contract at 11.6x7 or 8.

It's still an overpayment, but like I said... I'm now happy with Dubas when he merely slightly overpays someone. I don't expect any more from him at this point.

Again, look at every other player in the cap era that got around 15% of the cap after their elc. Just look at their point totals. They're absurd.
Matthews wasn't even a ppg over his elc. His contract is without precedent. In fact, what many are saying is that it's set the new precedent.
That's great, eh? We have the gm that sets new precedents in overpayment, as opposed to just paying market value.

 

[egd27]

Why move Nylander, he looks like he could be. 2nd line center if Kadri is moved in a couple years.

Matthews Tavares Marner
Korshkov Nylander Kapanen

You have the team moving Matthews to the wing so Nylander can be 2nd line centre?

 

[ToneDog]

Even if the team had appetite to move Nylander (and I don’t believe for a moment they do, because they are smarter than the average fan or media member) you would not sell him at the low he’s at right now.

Nylander will be and should be back.

If somebody in management is pissed with the outcome of his year, they will sell low. They sold low on Kessel. As much as I was disappointed in him this year, I would be hesitant to move him before I gave him a full training camp.

 

[Bomber0104]

Why move Nylander, he looks like he could be. 2nd line center if Kadri is moved in a couple years.

Matthews Tavares Marner
Korshkov Nylander Kapanen

If Babcock ever made lines like that, then yes I'd finally agree with you that he should be fired

 

[Sypher04]

If somebody in management is pissed with the outcome of his year, they will sell low. They sold low on Kessel. As much as I was disappointed in him this year, I would be hesitant to move him before I gave him a full training camp.

I wouldn't really equate them personally. Kessel was what he was, but the true motivation for that trade was to begin the rebuild in earnest. We are in a very different place now and giving away a 22yo with the skillset of a Nylander would be really counterproductive. Also there's a lot of context to consider with how poorly this season went, as your comment about wanting to see him with a full training camp alludes to some of

 

[Bomber0104]

If somebody in management is pissed with the outcome of his year, they will sell low. They sold low on Kessel. As much as I was disappointed in him this year, I would be hesitant to move him before I gave him a full training camp.

Trading Nylander would be more akin to the Bruins trading Kessel to the Leafs for two unprotected 1st's and a 2nd.

Worked out well for them as we all know.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Trading Nylander (espcially this summer when his value is low) would be a mistake.

By the end of next year if Nylander plays with Matthews (like he was signed to) I bet people will be saying how good of a contract he is on relative to Marner.

For example Nylander at 7 million vs Marner at 10.5. Nylander could end up better value.

 

[Bomber0104]

Trading Nylander (espcially this summer when his value is low) would be a mistake.

By the end of next year if Nylander plays with Matthews (like he was signed to) I bet people will be saying how good of a contract he is on relative to Marner.

For example Nylander at 7 million vs Marner at 10.5. Nylander could end up better value.

No player would ever get traded in the NHL if you were to use circular reasoning like this.

If player's performance is down -> Keep him, let him get his performance up

If player's performance is up -> Keep him, he's performing as he should

Basically sets up Nylander as some untouchable piece that can't be moved irrespective of performance, team needs, and cap realities - which to me is a bit ridiculous.

 

[Willchel Marlynder]

Trading Nylander (espcially this summer when his value is low) would be a mistake.

By the end of next year if Nylander plays with Matthews (like he was signed to) I bet people will be saying how good of a contract he is on relative to Marner.

For example Nylander at 7 million vs Marner at 10.5. Nylander could end up better value.

Exactly. If Nylander becomes a 75-80 point winger his contract might have more value then say a 100 point PKing winger at 10.5.

All depends on Nylander though. I expect a big redemption year from him.

 

[A1LeafNation]

You have the team moving Matthews to the wing so Nylander can be 2nd line centre?

If need a goal late in game 7. Load up.

 

[A1LeafNation]

If Babcock ever made lines like that, then yes I'd finally agree with you that he should be fired

Even if he needs a late goal in game 7.