Auston Matthews vs Sasha Barkov

[Tad Mikowsky]

They're usually put in polls where they are at a disadvantage because people don't like the Leafs.

While this is correct, there’s some good reason for that. Like below.

Oh cute!

Another Leaf thread started by a non Leaf fan!

We own these boards.

Just admit it you love the blue and white. You closet Leaf fan, you!

It really is a shame that both those players mentioned play for such small markets.

They would each have a religion named after them if they played for a real hockey market...

Such a waste.

 

[LeafsNation75]

My point is that next year without JVR, Leafs might load up on one unit instead of playing Matthews unit as the 2nd unit. He'll also naturally play more than 17 mins or whatever he's at right now. He may not play 22 min (or whatever it is) that Barkov is playing now but it'll be more. Naturally, he'll score more than 2 powerplay goals next year, and likely won't miss the same amount of time. As he is already on pace for 45 goals for an 82 game season. It's possible he'll hit 50 goals/90 points, but the team will be worse because JVR/Bozak won't be on the third line.

That's the problem with HF. They look at raw point totals to point to players like Barkov and even Barzal for example, and say they are => Leaf guys like Matthews because they score more, which is ridiculous because those players are put in situations they are because of their team's lack of depth, not because they are better players.

Compare him also to 19/20 year old centermen in terms of 5v5 goals. I don't think era adjusted there are any players in the last 25 years to come into the league and score goals/60 min as much as Matthews does from the center ice position. It's just insane how underrated he is.

Both of these are very good points to make.

 

[authentic]

Compare him also to 19/20 year old centermen in terms of 5v5 goals. I don't think era adjusted there are any players in the last 25 years to come into the league and score goals/60 min as much as Matthews does from the center ice position. It's just insane how underrated he is.

It's also worth noting that he does this as a well above average defensive center, and not just for his age either.

 

[Narow]

My point is that next year without JVR, Leafs might load up on one unit instead of playing Matthews unit as the 2nd unit. He'll also naturally play more than 17 mins or whatever he's at right now. He may not play 22 min (or whatever it is) that Barkov is playing now but it'll be more. Naturally, he'll score more than 2 powerplay goals next year, and likely won't miss the same amount of time. As he is already on pace for 45 goals for an 82 game season. It's possible he'll hit 50 goals/90 points, but the team will be worse because JVR/Bozak won't be on the third line.

That's the problem with HF. They look at raw point totals to point to players like Barkov and even Barzal for example, and say they are => Leaf guys like Matthews because they score more, which is ridiculous because those players are put in situations they are because of their team's lack of depth, not because they are better players.

I dont know man your claims brought forward much different points than those. Altho i agree with most on this comment.

 

[Filatov2Kovalev2Bonk]

Went with Matthews here. He's an absolute monster at 5 v 5, and might clear 40 goals despite missing close to 20 games, which is crazy. He elevates his linemates a ton as well.
Barkov is an elite talent and probably has an overall better offensive toolbox, but if I'm starting a team right now I want Matthews.

 

[Regal]

Matthews is one of the main reasons why his team is a 100 pt team. He's insanely efficient when he's on the ice. Look at his 5v5 goals/60 min and his expected goals/60. It's almost at a historic pace. But nobody is going to talk about those things because Matthews is a leaf and nobody wants to admit he's one of the best goal scoring centermen to ever enter the NHL to this point.

Barkov is one of the main reasons why his team is in the dumpster. Overrated. He plays a ton of mins and is producing at a decent clip if you look at his per 60s and his usage. Great player, but not even close to Matthews when you adjust for usage.

P/60 is good for looking at efficiency, but can't be assumed to hold in more minutes. Also, currently Matthews' P/60 is 2.92, while Barkov's is 2.43, but this is with Matthews' on-ice shooting percentage at an unsustainably high and league-leading 12.98%. Barkov meanwhile is at a fairly reasonable 9.04%. If Matthews' on-ice shooting percentage goes down to an even 10% and he gets a point on the same percentage of goals, this would put his P/60 at 2.26. Considering last year their P/60s were 2.18 for Matthews and 2.2 for Barkov while both were on more reasonable 7.69% for Matthews and 8.52% for Barkov, the idea that there's a great disparity in their efficiency seems flawed.

Now, maybe you want to argue that Matthews' game leads to more high end chances and thus naturally a higher on-ice shooting percentage. But Matthew' xGF isn't nearly as impressive as you suggest. It's currently at 42.43, which is below the 44 goals a 10% on-ice shooting percentage would give him that I calculated above, and far below the 57 he's currently at. And his xGF% is roughly the same as Barkov's (53.02 to 52.15), but lower relative (3.16 to 5.21).

And I just saw that Corsica has quite different numbers for Barkov at 5v5, putting him at 2.23 P/60. But again, that's basically the same as Matthews is his underlying numbers weren't highly inflated.

 

[Howboutthempanthers]

Matthews is one of the main reasons why his team is a 100 pt team. He's insanely efficient when he's on the ice. Look at his 5v5 goals/60 min and his expected goals/60. It's almost at a historic pace. But nobody is going to talk about those things because Matthews is a leaf and nobody wants to admit he's one of the best goal scoring centermen to ever enter the NHL to this point.

Barkov is one of the main reasons why his team is in the dumpster. Overrated. He plays a ton of mins and is producing at a decent clip if you look at his per 60s and his usage. Great player, but not even close to Matthews when you adjust for usage.

Now when someone responds negatively to this post, it's not "Leaf hating".

 

[Snowsii]

Since entering the league no player has scored more even strength goals then Matthews and that's playing fewer minutes then anyone else ND missing 20 games. He elevates players on his line and is a beast Defensively.
Overrated my ass.

Scoring most even strenght goals is far away, from being one of "greatest goal scoring centers ever to enter"

 

[Snowsii]

P/60 is good for looking at efficiency, but can't be assumed to hold in more minutes. Also, currently Matthews' P/60 is 2.92, while Barkov's is 2.43, but this is with Matthews' on-ice shooting percentage at an unsustainably high and league-leading 12.98%. Barkov meanwhile is at a fairly reasonable 9.04%. If Matthews' on-ice shooting percentage goes down to an even 10% and he gets a point on the same percentage of goals, this would put his P/60 at 2.26. Considering last year their P/60s were 2.18 for Matthews and 2.2 for Barkov while both were on more reasonable 7.69% for Matthews and 8.52% for Barkov, the idea that there's a great disparity in their efficiency seems flawed.

Now, maybe you want to argue that Matthews' game leads to more high end chances and thus naturally a higher on-ice shooting percentage. But Matthew' xGF isn't nearly as impressive as you suggest. It's currently at 42.43, which is below the 44 goals a 10% on-ice shooting percentage would give him that I calculated above, and far below the 57 he's currently at. And his xGF% is roughly the same as Barkov's (53.02 to 52.15), but lower relative (3.16 to 5.21).

And I just saw that Corsica has quite different numbers for Barkov at 5v5, putting him at 2.23 P/60. But again, that's basically the same as Matthews is his underlying numbers weren't highly inflated.

I just wonder, how are Leafs fans going to counter these facts

 

[bionic]

I just wonder, how are Leafs fans going to counter these facts

Counter what? All he did was explain why Matthews is better offensively and try to make excuses why Barko is behind him.

 

[Snowsii]

Counter what? All he did was explain why Matthews is better offensively and try to make excuses why Batko is behind him.

Sure, when reading comprehension is at that level, no discussion can be held.. ignored ->

 

[authentic]

Scoring most even strenght goals is far away, from being one of "greatest goal scoring centers ever to enter"

2nd in goals in his D1 season. I'll give you to the count of infinity to find me another center who did this in the last 30 years.

 

[bionic]

2nd in goals in his D1 season. I'll give you to the count of infinity to find me another center who did this in the last 30 years.

You will be waiting for a while.

 

[Snowsii]

2nd in goals in his D1 season. I'll give you to the count of infinity to find me another center who did this in the last 30 years.

Will he repeat it? One season hardly make you greatest of anything.. Not saying he's elite of it.

 

[authentic]

Will he repeat it? One season hardly make you greatest of anything.. Not saying he's elite of it.

Well based on his play this season despite injuries it's pretty likely. His 29 goals in 55 games is a pace of 43 over a full season.

 

[Snowsii]

Well based on his play this season despite injuries it's pretty likely. His 29 goals in 55 games is a pace of 43 over a full season.

Last season pace meant nothing.. So i'm just going to ignore any "pace" facts.. Either he does it or not.

 

[Regal]

Counter what? All he did was explain why Matthews is better offensively and try to make excuses why Barko is behind him.

Pretty sure the initial post was making what you would call "excuses" for why Matthews isn't scoring at the same pace, so maybe we should stick with that instead then?

 

[authentic]

Last season pace meant nothing.. So i'm just going to ignore any "pace" facts.. Either he does it or not.

Rebel without a cause.

 

[LeafsNation75]

Last season pace meant nothing.. So i'm just going to ignore any "pace" facts.. Either he does it or not.

You seem to be forgetting that last season we had Patrik Laine supporters say if he was never injured it was guaranteed he would have scored in those games he missed and won the Calder instead of Matthews.

When talking about Matthews pace this season all everyone has said what his numbers would be and nothing more than that. So basically we never made any guarantees he would have scored in the games he missed.

 

[newfy]

My God, you guys are trying to push this scenario that Matthews is at best average Defensivly. Not the case. At 20 years old Matthews is an above average on the defensive end of the game.
As for development not being guaranteed, that's true for most players, but star players like Matthews, they always get better.
I see Matthews very easily being a selke caliber player as early as next year. That's how good he is.

Also irrelevant to the point. Hes not some complete defensive stud now, hes not on the Barkov level defensively now. The point of this poll is now. I also never said he was average at best defensively, hes a good two way player Barkov is just better.

I wont touch on stars always get better, because thats not actually true but I think Matthews will get better so it doesnt matter

 

[The Kessel Run]

I just wonder, how are Leafs fans going to counter these facts

Let's just say there's a reason that Matthews has a high shooting %.

 

[FlaPanthers11]

Let's just say there's a reason that Matthews has a high shooting %.

Is there a reason that he has the highest on ice shooting percentage since the Sedins in 2009-2010? Not exactly sustainable.

 

[The Kessel Run]

Is there a reason that he has the highest on ice shooting percentage since the Sedins in 2009-2010? Not exactly sustainable.

There are certainly visible contributing factors. I much prefer his off-ice shooting % myself.

 

[FlaPanthers11]

There are certainly visible contributing factors. I much prefer his off-ice shooting % myself.

As long as you're comfortable taking the bet that no one has ever won. I guess a 16 seed did just beat a 1 for the first time...

 

[NarcoPolo]

Is there a reason that he has the highest on ice shooting percentage since the Sedins in 2009-2010? Not exactly sustainable.

Neither is his considerably low shooting percentage on the powerplay. Wonder why that isn't brought up at all.