ATD Chat Thread XV

[ResilientBeast]

Thank god McLellan finally put RNH and McDavid together.

If only Talbot, Klefbom and Sekera weren't garbage this year.

 

[ResilientBeast]

McDavid has 79 ESP, the next closest is Mackinnon at 62

Damn if our powerplay was not CHL level, he would have run away with the Art Ross by now.

 

[ResilientBeast]

For reference our lines right now are

RNH - McDavid - Rattie
Caggiula - Draisaitl - Aberg
Lucic - Strome - Puljujarvi
Pakarinen - Khaira - Slepyshev

 

[ImporterExporter]

McDavid has 79 ESP, the next closest is Mackinnon at 62

Damn if our powerplay was not CHL level, he would have run away with the Art Ross by now.

Why is your PP so damn bad? Lack of skill on the points?

 

[ResilientBeast]

Why is your PP so damn bad? Lack of skill on the points?

Our PP coach and new ATD alumni Jay Woodcroft should have been fired. (Whoever picked him made the worst pick in the draft IMO)

He has been awful, we all the same personnel regularly on the top unit as last year and they can't get it done.

He needs to be fired

McDavid has been a monster at even strength but it feels like we give up more goals with the man advantage than we manage to score.

 

[ImporterExporter]

Our PP coach and new ATD alumni Jay Woodcroft should have been fired. (Whoever picked him made the worst pick in the draft IMO)

He has been awful, we all the same personnel regularly on the top unit as last year and they can't get it done.

He needs to be fired

McDavid has been a monster at even strength but it feels like we give up more goals with the man advantage than we manage to score.

Wow, amazing how much a coach can impact a special teams unit. It is crazy to think with how dominant McDavid is at ES they don't have more success up a man. Guess the system really is trash.

It sucks seeing Edmonton so out of sync. I really want to see McD in the postseason, getting serious 7 game series experience. It's a shame somebody like him is on the outside looking in.

 

[ResilientBeast]

The only major issue I have with PC is Lucic, he was "fine" last year. And this year he's been useless, maybe PC can work some magic (he won't) and dump him to someone like Arizona

 

[ResilientBeast]

Wow, amazing how much a coach can impact a special teams unit. It is crazy to think with how dominant McDavid is at ES they don't have more success up a man. Guess the system really is trash.

It sucks seeing Edmonton so out of sync. I really want to see McD in the postseason, getting serious 7 game series experience. It's a shame somebody like him is on the outside looking in.

It's maddening to watch.

It does, and Oilers fans are still pissed about Ryan Kesler grabbing Talbot's pad last year. That was ****ing ******* and we should've just barely squeaked passed the Ducks.

If anything we've seen this year McDavid can shoot, he's put himself into the top 5 in goals which I did not expect ever happening.

Also long as Puljuarvi and Yamamoto continue to develop we should be fine. But I don't like banking on prospects so much these days

 

[Thenameless]

Who should win the Hart then? if Kucherov keeps the lead for the Art Ross?

MacKinnon.

 

[ImporterExporter]

It's maddening to watch.

It does, and Oilers fans are still pissed about Ryan Kesler grabbing Talbot's pad last year. That was ****ing ******* and we should've just barely squeaked passed the Ducks.

If anything we've seen this year McDavid can shoot, he's put himself into the top 5 in goals which I did not expect ever happening.

Also long as Puljuarvi and Yamamoto continue to develop we should be fine. But I don't like banking on prospects so much these days

I'm not overly surprised that Connor is scoring more this year. From everything you read and hear he's got a great work ethic and really looks up to a guy like Crosby who followed a similiar path in terms of goal scoring (87 was probably a bit ahead of 97 in that department at similiar ages). Hell, with the tear he's been on lately I wouldn't rule out 50 next year if he's healthy.

I think the D and G will be keys for you guys long term. Which Talbot will you guys get? Big question. And I say that as more of an outsider because I don't see as much Oiler hockey as I wish I could but I think the F's are good enough to contend from what I have seen. I could be completely off base though.

 

[ResilientBeast]

I'm not overly surprised that Connor is scoring more this year. From everything you read and hear he's got a great work ethic and really looks up to a guy like Crosby who followed a similiar path in terms of goal scoring (87 was probably a bit ahead of 97 in that department at similiar ages). Hell, with the tear he's been on lately I wouldn't rule out 50 next year if he's healthy.

I think the D and G will be keys for you guys long term. Which Talbot will you guys get? Big question. And I say that as more of an outsider because I don't see as much Oiler hockey as I wish I could but I think the F's are good enough to contend from what I have seen. I could be completely off base though.

We all knew he would take the step forward we just didn't expect it to happen yet.

Our problem is our D and G overperformed a little last year.

Talbot has been maddeningly inconsistent, Klefbom has has shoulder problems that he allegedly didn't want to get surgery for after his staph infection a few years ago. So we kept playing him, and Sekera has been honestly garbage and I want him gone this summer.

On the back of Drai and McDavid we should be good enough to make the playoffs. They are both top 11 in ESP this season. If we had half decent special teams we would be on the bubble.

Nurse and bear have looked solid, Seth Jone's younger brother has been doing well. Larsson has been steady as ever. Hopefully our management is smart enough (unlikely) to cut off some of the dead weight

 

[ImporterExporter]

Pretty amazing but Crosby has now been over a PPG in every season of his career. Now obviously there were a few injury shortened years (66 in 41 games in 2011 and 37 in 22 the following year) and the lockout but even in those years he was way above a PPG. 13 years. Damn, I can't believe he's been in the league that long. I still remember the lottery like it was yesterday.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

Pretty amazing but Crosby has now been over a PPG in every season of his career. Now obviously there were a few injury shortened years (66 in 41 games in 2011 and 37 in 22 the following year) and the lockout but even in those years he was way above a PPG. 13 years. Damn, I can't believe he's been in the league that long. I still remember the lottery like it was yesterday.

Due to his (relatively) young age & injury problems, Crosby hasn't looked great according to most longevity-based stats.

But he's now tied for 10th place all-time in most point-per-game seasons*. The only players with more are Gretzky (19); Howe (17); Lemieux, Messier, Sakic, Dionne, and Francis (15 each); and Beliveau and Bourque (14 each).

* Yes, I know that stat isn't comparable from year to year, given how widely scoring fluctuates in the NHL. But it's still interesting as trivia, if nothing else.

 

[ImporterExporter]

Well I guess McDavid may just win the Art Ross by a mile haha. He's playing like Gretzky right now.

 

[ImporterExporter]

Due to his (relatively) young age & injury problems, Crosby hasn't looked great according to most longevity-based stats.

But he's now tied for 10th place all-time in most point-per-game seasons*. The only players with more are Gretzky (19); Howe (17); Lemieux, Messier, Sakic, Dionne, and Francis (15 each); and Beliveau and Bourque (14 each).

* Yes, I know that stat isn't comparable from year to year, given how widely scoring fluctuates in the NHL. But it's still interesting as trivia, if nothing else.

If he can stay healthy I think he'll match/beat everyone but Gretzky. I COULD see him equaling Howe with 17 (he'd need 4 more seasons after this year, which takes him to age 35) but that would require full health and better linemates moving forward. The older he gets the less he'll be able to carry around the typical bottom 6 F's and AHL/NHL tweeners that he's accustomed to playing with IMO. And he's taking on a greater defensive role under Sullivan as well. Reminds me a lot of how Yzerman played under Bowman once he got into his 30's.

 

[ResilientBeast]

This season (we also have the lowest PP opportunities which is garbage but moving passed that)

League Average PP% - 20.03%
Oilers PP% - 14.8%
League Average PK% - 79.97%
Oilers PK% - 75.54%

So if the Oilers had a league average PP, we would have ~39 goals (so 10 more than we have now)

If the Oilers had a league average PK we would have allowed ~47 goals (so 10 less than we have now)

GF = 234
GA = 240

Using Bill James pythagorian wins Win% = GF^2/(GF^2 + GA^2)

Actual Win% = 44.1%
Expected Win% = 48.7%

So even without our special teams being trash. We are trash, we would have 3 more wins right now good enough for 18th in the entire league and would be 2 wins back of the Ducks.*

*In an ideal world

 

[ResilientBeast]

League average save% 0.913
Oilers save% 0.899

250 GA actually
2473 Shots Against
With league average SV% we would have allowed only 215 GA

With league average SV% Win% of 0.52, good enough for ~40 wins

 

[ResilientBeast]

Fixing our PP to average and leaving our PK and adding the goal sv%

Our win % would become 54.1%

and we would be on target for 41 wins in 77 games. Good enough to likely make the playoffs.

 

[ResilientBeast]

Doing the math makes me even madder

 

[jarek]

Doing the math makes me even madder

Quite honestly I'm not convinced Talbot is good enough.

Andersen showed even when the team was playing brutal in front of him, he could still steal games for the team.

There's the biggest difference between the two teams.

 

[ResilientBeast]

Quite honestly I'm not convinced Talbot is good enough.

Andersen showed even when the team was playing brutal in front of him, he could still steal games for the team.

There's the biggest difference between the two teams.

Talbot was doing that last year.

That's the maddening part is we've seen him be a top 10 goalie, he was the reason we managed to make the playoffs and go a round.

McDavid can't be the engine of our offence and save 0.918 of all shots

 

[ResilientBeast]

#McDavid4Hart he won't win but he should be top 3.

1) McDavid
2) Mackinnon
3) Hall
4) Kucherov
5) Idk

 

[ImporterExporter]

I'll be shocked if the voters look past his name if he wins the Art Ross by double digits, which seems like a damn near lock at this point haha.

I'll give him 3rd based on his even strength domination and likely big AR win but can't look past the Oilers poor standing to put him higher.

 

[ResilientBeast]

I'll be shocked if the voters look past his name if he wins the Art Ross by double digits, which seems like a damn near lock at this point haha.

I'll give him 3rd based on his even strength domination and likely big AR win but can't look past the Oilers poor standing to put him higher.

See but why should his terrible team impact his case for MVP. I shudder to think how terrible would would be without him. He's killing it, he's somehow +22 on a team with a -29 goal differential.

Since the all star break he has 48 points in 28 games, if he doesn't win the Hart he certainly should win the Lindsay

Kucherov in the Art Ross Race

 

[ImporterExporter]

See but why should his terrible team impact his case for MVP. I shudder to think how terrible would would be without him. He's killing it, he's somehow +22 on a team with a -29 goal differential.

Since the all star break he has 48 points in 28 games, if he doesn't win the Hart he certainly should win the Lindsay

Kucherov in the Art Ross Race

That's not at all fair to Kucherov. He missed a few games due to injury AND the Bolts are playing hockey that isn't geared towards getting 1 guy as much ice time and looks as possible. The Oilers have nothing to play for other than running up the points for McDavid.

Kucherov is actually a more productive scorer when you factor he's on the ice nearly 2 minutes less than McDavid a game.

I don't care if McDavid wins the Lindsay. He's the most outstanding player in hockey but he simply cannot be the most valuable to a team (or league) that is one of the worst 6-7 franchies in hockey. As I've said before, take McDavid off the Oilers and they go from picking say 4th to 8th to having the best chance at the 1st overall again. They are nowhere near the postseason. Fair or not, it's how the Hart should work IMHO.