Neither of my first two picks this year are on any of those rosters.
Neither of my first two picks this year are on any of those rosters.
I think that has something to do with the serpentine draft format: 1-2-3-4-5-5-4-3-2-1-1-2-3-4-5, etc ...I wouldn't sweat it. Gretzky, Lemieux, and Orr have never been on the winning team either.
I think that has something to do with the serpentine draft format: 1-2-3-4-5-5-4-3-2-1-1-2-3-4-5, etc ...
You could debate "talent plateaus" all day ... i.e.: the idea that Orr, Gretzky, Howe and Lemieux are all close, then there's a drop-off to Richard, Harvey and Beliveau.
Look at Orr + an Henri Richard-esque 60th best player compared to a 28/33 combination like Lidstrom / Trottier / Fetisov. It's been a few years since I was in one of these, so maybe my rankings are off, but most of the time I'd rather have the latter.
I have a spreadsheet of stats / ATD draft positions / personal judgements on an old laptop that I haven't looked at in probably a year, so I can't speak to the 70-75 thing, but I definitely remember there begin spots where I thought, "Man, I'd love 5 picks all right here in this 20 pick range" about a couple different spots in the queue.And yet Howe has been on two winners.
In think there is generally a plateau dropoff around the 70-75 range, so having a top pick, a late 2nd rounder and then an early 3rd rounder in a 32 team draft is actually an excellent way to start a team from a value perspective.
I have no idea why Orr's teams have never won one of these things. Probably just chance. He has been to at least one final that I know of. Gretzky and Mario are another matter; one problem with these two is that by the time your second pick comes up (unless you trade up), all of the good #1 defensemen are generally gone, which tends to make life pretty hard, though it's not insurmountable.
Also, picking at the beginnings/ends of rounds makes it generally harder to manuever through trades because of the bigger gaps between picks. All three of Orr, Gretzky and Lemieux are on strong teams this year, so maybe the curse will finally be broken.
Agreed. The ATD used to be less competitive when Howe won than it is now. If you look at the overall history of the ATD (and not just the exceptions), this is true. It's easier to win with Sakic & Coffey than it is with Orr & Bernie "Boom Boom" Geoffrion.I think that has something to do with the serpentine draft format: 1-2-3-4-5-5-4-3-2-1-1-2-3-4-5, etc ... You could debate "talent plateaus" all day ... i.e.: the idea that Orr, Gretzky, Howe and Lemieux are all close, then there's a drop-off to Richard, Harvey and Beliveau. Look at Orr + an Henri Richard-esque 60th best player compared to a 28/33 combination like Lidstrom / Trottier / Fetisov. It's been a few years since I was in one of these, so maybe my rankings are off, but most of the time I'd rather have the latter.
Players perceived as one way offensive players taken in the first 3 rounds such as Jagr and Selanne are getting greater respect than ever so I wouldn't count their teams out just yet if I were you.
If I were really bored one day and past ATD'ers were still active, I'd love to get a demographic breakdown of who is playing and voting in this thing, but it feels like this forum is disproportionately Western Canadian. While I hate to be deterministic / xenophobic about the thing, attributes like "being tough" and "being an all-around player" and "being a choker in the playoffs" get their significance overestimated in this draft because we VOTE on this thing, instead of actually playing more games. I want to do one of these ATD's again but feel like I'll just get frustrated by Marcel Dionne, my 4th round pick, and Tony Esposito, my 7th round pick, earning me a #1 regular season seed and then failing in the playoffs.But perhaps that's just me.
There have been 2. Hall and Sawchuk.... We have yet to see a top goalie carry his team to a Milt Dunnell Cup.
The 2012 champs are now the 4th team out of 10 ATD champs to do it with a top-5 pick. It looks like the argument that high picks are an advantage may be true.
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If you don't have a top pick, you have to be more reactive and worry more about what other teams are doing. See ATD2012 when I lost to Bobby Orr basically because I didn't have a two-way center with speed, despite the fact that my opponent agreed with me that my team was stronger at most positions other than #1 D.
Yeah, it takes a lot of skill and guile to win with a lower pick... like 27th.
LOL you won that draft later by grabbing Selanne imo
Every champion has won by making good picks early, middle and late. The difficulty of making a good pick in the 1st round is underrated (because it sets up your next few picks), but it is still the easiest round in the draft to get right.
I think the advantage of elite players can be counteracted by building elite units. Unit >> individual, in my opinion. The winner I built in ATD#10 without a top 5 pick iced the best first pairing in that draft (Lidström - Gadsby), and having that elite unit was very important to the team's success. It's just a bit more tricky to pull off when you have to do it with multiple parts.
of course you have to be consistantly making good picks , but there's always one or two picks that are really the key between being an above-average team and a champion.This key pick is rarely in the first round because few GM makes 1st round mistakes and none of them makes very bad mistakes because it's gotten impossible to do.
Yeah, it takes a lot of skill and guile to win with a lower pick... like 27th.