ATD championship retrospective

[TheDevilMadeMe]

should have used the sarcasm emoticon...

probably......

 

[Nalyd Psycho]

I dunno, If having Oliver center Richard will get me the championship, I'll take him in the fourth round.

 

[Dr Pepper]

Neither of my first two picks this year are on any of those rosters.

 

[EagleBelfour]

Neither of my first two picks this year are on any of those rosters.

Make it my first three selection for me!

 

[monster_bertuzzi]

Neither of my first two picks this year are on any of those rosters.

I wouldn't sweat it. Gretzky, Lemieux, and Orr have never been on the winning team either.

 

[ck26]

I wouldn't sweat it. Gretzky, Lemieux, and Orr have never been on the winning team either.

I think that has something to do with the serpentine draft format: 1-2-3-4-5-5-4-3-2-1-1-2-3-4-5, etc ...

You could debate "talent plateaus" all day ... i.e.: the idea that Orr, Gretzky, Howe and Lemieux are all close, then there's a drop-off to Richard, Harvey and Beliveau.

Look at Orr + an Henri Richard-esque 60th best player compared to a 28/33 combination like Lidstrom / Trottier / Fetisov. It's been a few years since I was in one of these, so maybe my rankings are off, but most of the time I'd rather have the latter.

 

[Sturminator]

I think that has something to do with the serpentine draft format: 1-2-3-4-5-5-4-3-2-1-1-2-3-4-5, etc ...

You could debate "talent plateaus" all day ... i.e.: the idea that Orr, Gretzky, Howe and Lemieux are all close, then there's a drop-off to Richard, Harvey and Beliveau.

Look at Orr + an Henri Richard-esque 60th best player compared to a 28/33 combination like Lidstrom / Trottier / Fetisov. It's been a few years since I was in one of these, so maybe my rankings are off, but most of the time I'd rather have the latter.

And yet Howe has been on two winners.

In think there is generally a plateau dropoff around the 70-75 range, so having a top pick, a late 2nd rounder and then an early 3rd rounder in a 32 team draft is actually an excellent way to start a team from a value perspective.

I have no idea why Orr's teams have never won one of these things. Probably just chance. He has been to at least one final that I know of. Gretzky and Mario are another matter; one problem with these two is that by the time your second pick comes up (unless you trade up), all of the good #1 defensemen are generally gone, which tends to make life pretty hard, though it's not insurmountable.

Also, picking at the beginnings/ends of rounds makes it generally harder to manuever through trades because of the bigger gaps between picks. All three of Orr, Gretzky and Lemieux are on strong teams this year, so maybe the curse will finally be broken.

 

[ck26]

And yet Howe has been on two winners.

In think there is generally a plateau dropoff around the 70-75 range, so having a top pick, a late 2nd rounder and then an early 3rd rounder in a 32 team draft is actually an excellent way to start a team from a value perspective.

I have no idea why Orr's teams have never won one of these things. Probably just chance. He has been to at least one final that I know of. Gretzky and Mario are another matter; one problem with these two is that by the time your second pick comes up (unless you trade up), all of the good #1 defensemen are generally gone, which tends to make life pretty hard, though it's not insurmountable.

Also, picking at the beginnings/ends of rounds makes it generally harder to manuever through trades because of the bigger gaps between picks. All three of Orr, Gretzky and Lemieux are on strong teams this year, so maybe the curse will finally be broken.

I have a spreadsheet of stats / ATD draft positions / personal judgements on an old laptop that I haven't looked at in probably a year, so I can't speak to the 70-75 thing, but I definitely remember there begin spots where I thought, "Man, I'd love 5 picks all right here in this 20 pick range" about a couple different spots in the queue.

I think there's also something to be said about all-around players being more likely to achieve success in this thing than an equally-talented, one-dimensional player. Wayne Gretzky needs a speedy offensive winger (Kurri) and a worker on his line to be successful, and it will be a purely offensive trio, whereas Gordie Howe, Bryan Trottier, Ted Lindsay, Doug Harvey, etc are all like Burger King ... they'll give it to you how you want it and play on any type of line or team.

I remember starting one ATD with Larry Robinson, Bryan Trottier, Jari Kurri, Busher Jackson, Mike Modano and another Robinson and Chris Pronger, both of which are starts you can do pretty much anything with. My biggest train wreck of a team started Doug Harvey + Marcel Dionne + Luc Robitaille, and while I thought that was probably my best team, I couldn't draft enough defense / toughness to compensate for the "weakness" of my Quebecois forwards. It's easier to build a team around Gordie Howe's talents because you don't need to be as specific about what skills you're drafting.

 

[Say Hey Kid]

I think that has something to do with the serpentine draft format: 1-2-3-4-5-5-4-3-2-1-1-2-3-4-5, etc ... You could debate "talent plateaus" all day ... i.e.: the idea that Orr, Gretzky, Howe and Lemieux are all close, then there's a drop-off to Richard, Harvey and Beliveau. Look at Orr + an Henri Richard-esque 60th best player compared to a 28/33 combination like Lidstrom / Trottier / Fetisov. It's been a few years since I was in one of these, so maybe my rankings are off, but most of the time I'd rather have the latter.

Agreed. The ATD used to be less competitive when Howe won than it is now. If you look at the overall history of the ATD (and not just the exceptions), this is true. It's easier to win with Sakic & Coffey than it is with Orr & Bernie "Boom Boom" Geoffrion.

 

[Sturminator]

Place in the draft order of the past ATD champions:

ATD2011: 27/40 (Messier)

ATD2010: 4/30 (Howe)

ATD#12: 28/32 (Sawchuk)

ATD#11: 5/28 (Harvey)

ATD#10: 16/28 (Lidström)

ATD#9: 21/32 (Mikita)

ATD#8: 14/28 (Potvin)

ATD#7: 28/28 (Hall)

ATD#6: 3/20 (Howe)

A somewhat interesting pattern which perhaps sheds a bit of light on where the best values are in the first round.

- two teams have won by taking elite goalies very late.
- two teams have won by taking Gordie Howe in the top-4.
- two teams have won by drafting elite defensemen in the middle of the round.
- two teams have won by drafting strong two-way forwards in the latter half of the round, but not at the end.
- one team won by taking Doug Harvey 5th.

Not a single one of the winners has drafted a one-way offensive player (like Gretzky, Lemieux, Hull, Richard, Coffey, Taylor, Esposito, Jagr, etc.) in the first round. Hmmmm...yes, we are a conservative bunch.

 

[Say Hey Kid]

A hockey team is 20-25 players so the success of the team does not illustrate the relative values of first round picks.

The best team does not always win.

Past success is not an accurate prediction of future success. I drafted Albert Pujols and he is the only player in history with 30 home runs 11 years in a row. After 10 games, he has 0 home runs. Was that a good pick or a bad pick?

Players perceived as one way offensive players taken in the first 3 rounds such as Jagr and Selanne are getting greater respect than ever so I wouldn't count their teams out just yet if I were you.

 

[Sturminator]

Players perceived as one way offensive players taken in the first 3 rounds such as Jagr and Selanne are getting greater respect than ever so I wouldn't count their teams out just yet if I were you.

I am no proponent of defensive hockey, but I always had my best success when starting my teams from a strong defensive base (Harvey, Cook, Nighbor // Lidström, Sakic, Gadsby) and building the offense around that. When I tried to start teams around offense with Esposito and Coffey (only counting the teams that were really mine - I didn't call all the shots when Nalyd and I co-GMed), I was much less successful. But perhaps that's just me. I've generally been better at building forward lines than I have been at building defensive units, so I tend to favor paying full price for defensemen early and scooping forwards late. As Bill Walsh once said, "A lot can be done with a good scheme on offense. On defense, you simply need the athletes."

 

[ck26]

But perhaps that's just me.

If I were really bored one day and past ATD'ers were still active, I'd love to get a demographic breakdown of who is playing and voting in this thing, but it feels like this forum is disproportionately Western Canadian. While I hate to be deterministic / xenophobic about the thing, attributes like "being tough" and "being an all-around player" and "being a choker in the playoffs" get their significance overestimated in this draft because we VOTE on this thing, instead of actually playing more games. I want to do one of these ATD's again but feel like I'll just get frustrated by Marcel Dionne, my 4th round pick, and Tony Esposito, my 7th round pick, earning me a #1 regular season seed and then failing in the playoffs.

For the 15th draft in a row.

 

[Say Hey Kid]

... We have yet to see a top goalie carry his team to a Milt Dunnell Cup.

There have been 2. Hall and Sawchuk.

 

[Sturminator]

I have updated the OP to reflect the 2012 champions. Cecil Hart now joins the two-time champ club with Al Arbour and Tommy Ivan. Interestingly, these three coaches have won 6 of 10 ATD titles thus far. There is no personnel overlap between the 2011 and 2012 champions.

This championship team looks fairly conventional by ATD standards. Very strong top line, loaded on defense, good coach, middling goaltending. The Thompson - Vachon goaltending tandem continues the ATD trend of great diversity among netminders, with only Grant Fuhr having backstopped more than one cup winner (though a few guys have backed up more than one).

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

As far as the players go, it looks like Harry Watson, Ron Ellis, and Lloyd Cook win their 2nd ATD Championship, while everyone else on the team wins their first.

Note: This is Lloyd Cook's first championship as a starter, he was an extra on Hockey Outsider's team in ATD #8

 

[Sturminator]

The 2012 champs are now the 4th team out of 10 ATD champs to do it with a top-5 pick. It looks like the argument that high picks are an advantage may be true.

Also interesting to note is that the only championship teams built around 1st round defensemen were owned by myself and HO (who built his other team around Gordie Howe). HO and I were fairly similar in terms of draft philosophy in that we generally believed in building from the defense out. It's just strange that in a draft where the conventional wisdom is that defense wins championships to see that half of the winners have taken a forward in the 1st round.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

The 2012 champs are now the 4th team out of 10 ATD champs to do it with a top-5 pick. It looks like the argument that high picks are an advantage may be true.
.

It's definitely an advantage. When I grabbed Gordie Howe in ATD2010, my philosophy was that I would have the best player in any playoff series, so all I had to do was to build my team to augment the Gordie advantage and then try to minimize weaknesses. And it obviously worked, as I won the title.

If you don't have a top pick, you have to be more reactive and worry more about what other teams are doing. See ATD2012 when I lost to Bobby Orr basically because I didn't have a two-way center with speed, despite the fact that my opponent agreed with me that my team was stronger at most positions other than #1 D.

 

[Sturminator]

If you don't have a top pick, you have to be more reactive and worry more about what other teams are doing. See ATD2012 when I lost to Bobby Orr basically because I didn't have a two-way center with speed, despite the fact that my opponent agreed with me that my team was stronger at most positions other than #1 D.

I think the advantage of elite players can be counteracted by building elite units. Unit >> individual, in my opinion. The winner I built in ATD#10 without a top 5 pick iced the best first pairing in that draft (Lidström - Gadsby), and having that elite unit was very important to the team's success. It's just a bit more tricky to pull off when you have to do it with multiple parts.

 

[seventieslord]

Yeah, it takes a lot of skill and guile to win with a lower pick... like 27th.

 

[BenchBrawl]

Yeah, it takes a lot of skill and guile to win with a lower pick... like 27th.

LOL you won that draft later by grabbing Selanne imo

 

[Sturminator]

LOL you won that draft later by grabbing Selanne imo

Every champion has won by making good picks early, middle and late. The difficulty of making a good pick in the 1st round is underrated (because it sets up your next few picks), but it is still the easiest round in the draft to get right.

edit: for example, Caper and I didn't win ATD#10 because of Lidström - Gadsby. They were very important and were a good match in terms of chemistry, but we didn't get really special value for either one of them. We won because of these picks:

177- San Francisco Spiders - Aleksandr Maltsev, RW
233- San Francisco Spiders - Hod Stuart, D
291- San Francisco Spiders - Frank Foyston, F
408- San Francisco Spiders - Don McKenney, C

Heh...a lot has changed over the years.

 

[BenchBrawl]

Every champion has won by making good picks early, middle and late. The difficulty of making a good pick in the 1st round is underrated (because it sets up your next few picks), but it is still the easiest round in the draft to get right.

of course you have to be consistantly making good picks , but there's always one or two picks that are really the key between being an above-average team and a champion.This key pick is rarely in the first round because few GM makes 1st round mistakes and none of them makes very bad mistakes because it's gotten impossible to do.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

I think the advantage of elite players can be counteracted by building elite units. Unit >> individual, in my opinion. The winner I built in ATD#10 without a top 5 pick iced the best first pairing in that draft (Lidström - Gadsby), and having that elite unit was very important to the team's success. It's just a bit more tricky to pull off when you have to do it with multiple parts.

Well yes, the biggest reason I won ATD 2010 was because my first line as a whole was the best first line in that draft.

of course you have to be consistantly making good picks , but there's always one or two picks that are really the key between being an above-average team and a champion.This key pick is rarely in the first round because few GM makes 1st round mistakes and none of them makes very bad mistakes because it's gotten impossible to do.

Second biggest reason I won ATD 2010 was picking Rob Blake (as my third defenseman ) and Denis Savard way later than either had any business going.

 

[EagleBelfour]

Yeah, it takes a lot of skill and guile to win with a lower pick... like 27th.

I won with 28th