ATD championship retrospective

[seventieslord]

I won with 28th

ahh, so sometimes you can do it with luck too!

 

[BenchBrawl]

Well yes, the biggest reason I won ATD 2010 was because my first line as a whole was the best first line in that draft.



Second biggest reason I won ATD 2010 was picking Rob Blake (as my third defenseman ) and Denis Savard way later than either had any business going.

Denis Savard is always a good value for an offensive center where he is normally taken.

 

[EagleBelfour]

ahh, so sometimes you can do it with luck too!

Well played sir.

 

[Nalyd Psycho]

Not a single one of the winners has drafted a one-way offensive player (like Gretzky, Lemieux, Hull, Richard, Coffey, Taylor, Esposito, Jagr, etc.) in the first round. Hmmmm...yes, we are a conservative bunch.

Hull and Coffey are the only one's I have not tried with...

 

[Sturminator]

Hull and Coffey are the only one's I have not tried with...

I cannot recommend attempting to build a team around Paul Coffey. In spite of the fact that he is fully deserving from a talent/career perspective, he's just not viable where he typically gets taken in the ATD. I think this is mainly a result of a certain amount of ignorance and bias on the part of some ATD GMs, but it is a persistent phenomenon which has been around for so long now that I don't see it changing. At this point, I would only draft him after taking an elite defensive-defenseman as his partner. Something like Robinson/Chelios - Coffey as a team's top 2 picks might be viable (it avoids the overvaluing of #2 defensemen problem, and provides enough offense from Coffey to make up for not having an elite forward), but Coffey + forward is a ticket to an early playoff exit.

 

[monster_bertuzzi]

I cannot recommend attempting to build a team around Paul Coffey. In spite of the fact that he is fully deserving from a talent/career perspective, he's just not viable where he typically gets taken in the ATD. I think this is mainly a result of a certain amount of ignorance and bias on the part of some ATD GMs, but it is a persistent phenomenon which has been around for so long now that I don't see it changing. At this point, I would only draft him after taking an elite defensive-defenseman as his partner. Something like Robinson/Chelios - Coffey as a team's top 2 picks might be viable (it avoids the overvaluing of #2 defensemen problem, and provides enough offense from Coffey to make up for not having an elite forward), but Coffey + forward is a ticket to an early playoff exit.

It does seem like a lot of upper-echelon players are red flaged. Bossy and Esposito are two others.

 

[Sturminator]

It does seem like a lot of upper-echelon players are red flaged. Bossy and Esposito are two others.

There is still a defensive bias to the ATD. Half of the winners have drafted forwards in the 1st round, sure, but look at the forwards they have taken: Howe x2, Messier, Mikita and Gretzky. Of the group, only Gretz is a pure offensive player, and, well...he's Wayne Gretzky.

Esposito gets hit with the "he was fed by Orr" label. Bossy, I think has just been historically overvalued relative to other players because some ATDers can still remember the 80's. Bobby Hull hasn't made much noise in the ATD, either.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

It does seem like a lot of upper-echelon players are red flaged. Bossy and Esposito are two others.

Esposito is incredibly hard to build around. And honestly, Bossy just goes too early (well, he doesn't anymore, but he used to).

edit: basically what sturm said

 

[monster_bertuzzi]

Yeah I agree with what Sturm is saying for sure, there does seem to be an extra emphasis placed on two-way play, character, and sandpaper over pure straight forward offence.

EDIT: Bossy...

Bossy was straight up a phenomenal goalscorer, the only knock you could lay on him would be a lack on longevity probably. Still well deserving to go in the 28-32 range.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Yeah I agree with what Sturm is saying for sure, there does seem to be an extra emphasis placed on two-way play, character, and sandpaper over pure straight forward offence.

EDIT: Bossy...

Bossy was straight up a phenomenal goalscorer, the only knock you could lay on him would be a lack on longevity probably. Still well deserving to go in the 28-32 range.

agree with bolded, but he used to go much higher than that.

 

[Sturminator]

Yeah I agree with what Sturm is saying for sure, there does seem to be an extra emphasis placed on two-way play, character, and sandpaper over pure straight forward offence.

Which isn't necessarily wrong. In the ATD, as opposed to the real NHL, it is possible to build extremely well-rounded teams that are strong from top-to-bottom with hardly any weaknesses, at all. In the real NHL, offensive teams can win if they simply have more talent than the competition, but in a setting of rough parity, generally the more well-rounded team is in a better position when the series gets tight. There is a lot more parity in the ATD than in the real NHL, therefore balance is preferred.

I should probably stop calling it a defensive bias, because it is really a balance bias. Over the top defensive teams have also not gone very far in the ATD playoffs. It is simply harder to build a balanced team if you start with unbalanced players. I think that's the main problem with guys like Esposito. Coffey...he just gets too much hate.

EDIT: Bossy...

Bossy was straight up a phenomenal goalscorer, the only knock you could lay on him would be a lack on longevity probably. Still well deserving to go in the 28-32 range.

Yeah, I agree with you, and I think people underrate Bossy's all-around game and assume he was nothing but a shooter, which isn't true.

 

[Sturminator]

All ATD Conference Championship teams by draft position:

ATD 2013:

- Minnesota: 5th (Harvey)
- Pittsburgh: 6th (Beliveau)
- Montreal: 9th (Bourque) - champion
- New Jersey: 28th (Esposito)

ATD 2012:

- Pittsburgh: 1st (Orr)
- Inglewood: 2nd (Gretzky) - champion
- Minnesota: 12th (Richard)
- Ak Bars: 26th (Jagr)

ATD 2011:

- Monsters: 8th (Bourque)
- New Jersey: 11th (Richard)
- Regina: 27th (Messier) - champion
- Ottawa: 30th (Jagr)

ATD 2010:

- Halifax: 1st (Orr)
- New Jersey: 4th (Howe) - champion
- Inglewood: 11th (traded out of 1st round)
- Vancouver: 22nd (Roy)

ATD #12:

- New Jersey: 1st (Orr)
- Kimberley: 7th (Bourque)
- Detroit: 28th (Sawchuk) - champion
- Tidewater: 30th (Jagr)

ATD #11:

- Boston: 5th (Harvey) - champion
- Regina: 16th (Lafleur)
- Detroit: 19th (Kelly)
- Inglewood: 28th (Fetisov)

ATD #10:

- San Francisco: 18th (Lidström) - champion
- Detroit: 25th (Plante)
- Montreal: 26th (Hasek)
- Winnipeg: 28th (Sawchuk)

ATD #9:

- Detroit: 4th (Kelly...traded down in 1st)
- Buffalo: 21st (Mikita) - champion
- Springfield: 25th (Dryden)
- Trail: 30th (Trottier)

ATD #8:

- New Jersey: 1st (Lemieux...traded down in 1st)
- Oakland: 2nd (Gretzky)
- Nanaimo: 4th (Orr...traded up in the 1st)
- Montreal: 14th (Potvin) - champion

ATD #7:

- Buffalo: 8th (Shore)
- Montreal: 5th (Mikita...traded down in the 1st)
- Seattle: 23rd (Trottier)
- Nanaimo: 28th (Hall) - champion

ATD #6:

- Montreal: 3rd (Howe) - champion
- New Jersey: 8th (Shore)
- Trail: 13th (Lafleur)
- Calgary: 18th (Plante)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1st Round Picks by conference finals appearances:

Four: Bobby Orr

Three: Ray Bourque*, Jaromir Jagr

Two: Gordie Howe**, Doug Harvey*, Maurice Richard, Wayne Gretzky*, Terry Sawchuk*, Red Kelly, Guy Lafleur, Jacques Plante, Stan Mikita*, Bryan Trottier, Eddie Shore

One: Ken Dryden, Denis Potvin*, Mario Lemieux, Glenn Hall*, Dominik Hasek, Nicklas Lidström*, Slava Fetisov, Patrick Roy, Mark Messier*, Phil Esposito, Jean Beliveau, (no pick)

* indicates champion

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

So, there are your conference finalists. Here are the picks held in order:

1st
1st
1st
1st
2nd
2nd*
3rd*
4th*
4th
4th (trade down)
5th*
5th
5th (trade down)
6th
7th
8th
8th
8th
9th*
11th
11th (trade down)
12th
13th
14th*
16th
18th*
18th
19th
21st*
22nd
23rd
25th
25th
26th
26th
27th*
28th*
28th*
28th
28th
28th
30th
30th
30th

* indicates champion

mean draft position of conference finalists: 14.6
median draft position of conference finalists: 12/13

----------------------------------------------------------------

So really, it looks to me like thus far, the 1st and 4th spots have carried the only clear advantages in the draft. This makes sense: the 1st spot is generally reserved for Bobby Orr, and he is considered a special player, while the 4th spot is the end of the "elite" tier, and arguably the single best value pick in the draft, especially when the guy picking 3rd loses his mind and lets Gordie Howe out of the top 3, as happened in ATD 2010.

I am not at all convinced that the #8 pick carries any special advantages. All four conference finalists with the #8 pick have used it on a top-5 defenseman: Shore twice, Bourque and Harvey. What we're seeing here is probably just the advantage that one gets by picking one of these players in the 1st round (one avoids the #1 scramble later on, for one thing), not some special quality of the #8 pick.

Strangely, on paper picking close to the end of the draft seems to yield some sort of advantage, although this is somewhat misleading, as one 28th and one 30th overall from the above were selected in a 40 team draft, and thus not at the end of the draft, at all. From what we see above, I can't see how the draft needs any rebalancing. The #1 pick, and selections in the top-4, in general, are beneficial, but picking in the top-4 is not ATD easy mode, in part because picking close to the beginning/end of rounds gives you less flexibility than picking in the middle.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Seems the closest thing to a guarantee is winning your division with Bobby Orr (something I've been on both sides of), but past that, lots of variety.

 

[VanIslander]

18th*
18th
19th
21st*
23rd
25th
25th
26th
27th*
28th*
28th*
28th
30th
30th
30th

That's a lot from the bottom half of the order. Draft position seems to mean squat in terms of conference wins, as expected. It's about team building.

 

[Dr Pepper]

Seems the closest thing to a guarantee is winning your division with Bobby Orr (something I've been on both sides of), but past that, lots of variety.

Really hoping I can continue that trend with a strong draft this year.

 

[Pominville Knows]

Median is 12,5, edited after Sturms correction below. How many teams have participated through the years?

 

[Pominville Knows]

The mean value is 13,775. Edited after Sturms correction below.

 

[Sturminator]

Median is between 11th and 12th position, although i think there is only 39 teams in the list.

You're right. I missed Roy at 22nd overall. The list is now complete.

 

[BubbaBoot]

Observations:

1 - Despite being two of the greatest defensemen to ever play the game, still no champions with either Bobby Orr or Eddie Shore on it.

2 - As much as there is discussion about, and as much as there is respect for their talents, there are very few Russians/CCCP players on any of these champions....

3 - There is a reverence for "strong" coaching, but other than W-L / Championship records it is very hard to gauge their actual worth other than whatever media reports that are found. Much of what makes a team from a coaches perspective seemingly comes from behind closed doors or whatever is rattling around in their brains, ie...line combos, spotting talent, recognizing intangibles, motivational practices, etc....this a very speculative / subjective matter.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Observations:

1 - Despite being two of the greatest defensemen to ever play the game, still no champions with either Bobby Orr or Eddie Shore on it.

2 - As much as there is discussion about, and as much as there is respect for their talents, there are very few Russians/CCCP players on any of these champions....

3 - There is a reverence for "strong" coaching, but other than W-L / Championship records it is very hard to gauge their actual worth other than whatever media reports that are found. Much of what makes a team from a coaches perspective seemingly comes from behind closed doors or whatever is rattling around in their brains, ie...line combos, spotting talent, recognizing intangibles, motivational practices, etc....this a very speculative / subjective matter.

Bobby Orr's team won his division and made the semifinals in 3 of the last 4 drafts and the only time he didn't was the time we had 40 teams. So don't feel too sorry for him...

 

[Sturminator]

2 - As much as there is discussion about, and as much as there is respect for their talents, there are very few Russians/CCCP players on any of these champions...

It seems like almost every year we have one GM or another who decides to do a Great Soviet Project, and ends up snapping up a bunch of Red Army players (to reunite a line or somesuch) who then crash out in the 1st round of the playoffs. These players have also taken the longest to really come into focus for us, and one good rule of the ATD is that you're always better off with a known commodity (though the absolute best is an unknown commodity on the cheap that you can make known through your own research) than with a few quotes and a prayer. Some GMs don't seem to get this, but "the unknown" is always at least slightly punished in the ATD, because there are old curmudgeons like me hanging around who don't just make rosy assumptions about every mysterious player.

I believe Martinec is the only European player that is a two-time ATD champion at this point.

 

[Say Hey Kid]

I dare someone to find a team with more than 3 European skaters in the starting 18 skaters (not goalies, coaches. or reserves) who won their first round match up. Good luck.

 

[BubbaBoot]

I dare someone to find a team with more than 3 European skaters in the starting 18 skaters (not goalies, coaches. or reserves) who won their first round match up. Good luck.

I have two Russkies and a Swede, 2 of the 3 had pretty good, intermediate length careers in the NHL...all known quantities for the most part.

 

[MadArcand]

I dare someone to find a team with more than 3 European skaters in the starting 18 skaters (not goalies, coaches. or reserves) who won their first round match up. Good luck.

I lost to nik's Team Latvia in 2010 first round, and he had the KLM line + Balderis

 

[Dreakmur]

I dare someone to find a team with more than 3 European skaters in the starting 18 skaters (not goalies, coaches. or reserves) who won their first round match up. Good luck.

Last year's champion had 3, and the runner-up had 6.