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NSH615

NSH615

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Feb 13, 2013
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Preds33 said:
As rare as hat tricks are, there have been 6 in the last week and 5 since Saturday.
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Looks like I was wrong. There have been 7 in the last week. How odd is that?


Brayden Schenn (PHI) on Feb. 29 vs. CGY
Patric Hornqvist (PIT) on Feb. 29 vs. ARI
Corey Perry (ANA) on Feb. 28 vs. LAK
Mika Zibanejad (OTT) on Feb. 27 at CGY
Filip Forsberg (NSH) on Feb. 27 vs. STL
Nick Foligno (CBJ) on Feb. 25 vs. NJD
Filip Forsberg (NSH) on Feb. 23 at TOR
 

drwpreds

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Preds33 said:
Looks like I was wrong. There have been 7 in the last week. How odd is that?


Brayden Schenn (PHI) on Feb. 29 vs. CGY
Patric Hornqvist (PIT) on Feb. 29 vs. ARI
Corey Perry (ANA) on Feb. 28 vs. LAK
Mika Zibanejad (OTT) on Feb. 27 at CGY
Filip Forsberg (NSH) on Feb. 27 vs. STL
Nick Foligno (CBJ) on Feb. 25 vs. NJD
Filip Forsberg (NSH) on Feb. 23 at TOR
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It really is crazy- seems like every game I watch lately has had a hat trick.
 
Cashville

Cashville

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Apr 12, 2011
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STL beating MIN in regulation was a nice treat yesterday evening. It's unlikely we catch STL and I am still hoping MIN misses the playoffs somehow in favor of COL.
 

drwpreds

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Cashville said:
STL beating MIN in regulation was a nice treat yesterday evening. It's unlikely we catch STL and I am still hoping MIN misses the playoffs somehow in favor of COL.
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For me it was a tough call as to who to root for in that game. Had STL lost we could have been just 5 pts. behind them with a game in hand. Definitely doable. (Last night was not a good night at all for us as far as moving up in division- Chicago, Dallas and STL all won).

But the bottom line is as long as it wasn't a 3 point game we were going to benefit regardless of who won.

As much as I hate to say it, I don't think Colorado is going to pass Minnesota. The Avs have a brutal schedule to close the season. They have 9 games remaining against elite level playoff teams. And Minnesota has a very favorable remaining schedule- only 5 games left against playoff teams.
 
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PredsV82

PredsV82

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Im giving up scoreboard watching... and on wishing for a particular slot in the playoff pecking order. Right now we should be able to hang with anyone, whether its Dallas, St Louis, LA, Anaheim or Chicago. Just keep winning, especially on the road, stay healthy, and then show up ready to play in the first round.

if we somehow get close enough that we have a shot at winning the division, I'll start watching the scoreboard again
 
NSH615

NSH615

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Cashville said:
https://sports.vice.com/ca/article/...tank-because-the-playoff-race-is-all-but-over

Worth reading; 5 points may not seem like much, but catching STL is very likely not going to happen and winning the division is a pipedream.
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Eh... That is a fluff piece that sounds to be written by a fan of a team that is out of the hunt. This fan is just trying to advocate for tanking.

A win by Nashville and Chicago tonight puts that at 3 points. They also have 1 more game after tonight vs Chicago, 1 more vs Dallas, and 2 games vs the Caps. All notable games that could put a top 3 spot in jeopardy.
 
Cashville

Cashville

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Preds33 said:
Eh... That is a fluff piece that sounds to be written by a fan of a team that is out of the hunt. This fan is just trying to advocate for tanking.

A win by Nashville and Chicago tonight puts that at 3 points. They also have 1 more game after tonight vs Chicago, 1 more vs Dallas, and 2 games vs the Caps. All notable games that could put a top 3 spot in jeopardy.
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It's not really a fluff piece. It's pretty basic analysis based on actual results over time (leveraging Sports Club Stats which is pretty good) with some tank humor tossed in. Overcoming a five point deficit may seem feasible (we win three games and the other team loses three; voila!), but it is a statistical rarity / longshot just based on actual NHL season results over a long period of time. There's no extrapolation or guesswork here. Examples from the article (the Ottawa one is most relevant):

Since 2005-06, the standings on March 9 have been 95.1 percent accurate (137 of 144) at predicting the playoffs during 82-game seasons. Four of the nine seasons featured zero change to the top eight teams in each conference, four others saw one team bump another and the 2008-09 campaign featured three teams emerge from the back of the pack to clinch a postseason berth.

The seven teams since 2005-06 that pulled off the feat over that time were an average of 2.85 points out of a playoff spot; last season's Ottawa Senators overcame the greatest deficit in nearly a decade—five points—and all it took was a 13-3-2 finish to claim a wild-card spot.

In the nine seasons between 1995-96 and 2003-04, just 10 teams (93.1 percent) overtook a team in a postseason spot if they were out on March 9. Those seasons are before the NHL instituted the shootout and include four seasons without a loser point. For nearly 20 years, the NHL has shown that when teams have about one-sixth of their schedule remaining, only about six percent of teams have gone from out to in during that time.
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The biggest flaw in my correlating it to STL v NSH is that teams in the final playoff spot probably fight harder to hold it than teams vying for seeding; that's 100% conjecture from me, but could skew the comparison. Well that and that history is not a perfect predictor of the future obviously; see the Senators. They got a ton of press when they pulled it off because it was nuts.
 
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NSH615

NSH615

...
Feb 13, 2013
11,119
981
Cashville said:
It's not really a fluff piece. It's pretty basic analysis based on actual results over time (leveraging Sports Club Stats which is pretty good) with some tank humor tossed in. Overcoming a five point deficit may seem feasible (we win three games and the other team loses three; voila!), but it is a statistical rarity / longshot just based on actual NHL season results over a long period of time. There's no extrapolation or guesswork here. Examples from the article (the Ottawa one is most relevant):



The biggest flaw in my correlating it to STL v NSH is that teams in the final playoff spot probably fight harder to hold it than teams vying for seeding; that's 100% conjecture from me, but could skew the comparison. Well that and that history is not a perfect predictor of the future obviously; see the Senators. They got a ton of press when they pulled it off because it was nuts.
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Here is the thing about that though, we've already made up 6 points on St. Louis in the last month so it is possible and really tonight is a critical moment in this hunt. NSH & CHI wins put us 3 points back, CGY & STL wins and we are 7 points out and basically finish where we are. Now do I expect to keep this massive streak alive until the end? No. But this team is currently on the upswing and has momentum on its side.
 

drwpreds

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Preds33 said:
Here is the thing about that though, we've already made up 6 points on St. Louis in the last month so it is possible and really tonight is a critical moment in this hunt. NSH & CHI wins put us 3 points back, CGY & STL wins and we are 7 points out and basically finish where we are. Now do I expect to keep this massive streak alive until the end? No. But this team is currently on the upswing and has momentum on its side.
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I definitely think it is possible to catch them. And the thing is, a couple of weeks ago I didn't think it was all that much of an advantage for us, but if it allows us to face Dallas in the first round I do think it would be good for us. They are really banged up, especially on D. Its a long shot, but it would not completely shock me if Dallas winds up in the WC slot...
 
Armourboy

Armourboy

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drwpreds said:
I definitely think it is possible to catch them. And the thing is, a couple of weeks ago I didn't think it was all that much of an advantage for us, but if it allows us to face Dallas in the first round I do think it would be good for us. They are really banged up, especially on D. Its a long shot, but it would not completely shock me if Dallas winds up in the WC slot...
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Not to mention Dallas has a much weaker goaltending situation than just about anyone out there.
 
Cashville

Cashville

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Preds33 said:
Here is the thing about that though, we've already made up 6 points on St. Louis in the last month so it is possible and really tonight is a critical moment in this hunt. NSH & CHI wins put us 3 points back, CGY & STL wins and we are 7 points out and basically finish where we are. Now do I expect to keep this massive streak alive until the end? No. But this team is currently on the upswing and has momentum on its side.
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That's fair. Go Perds.
 
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